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Fantasy Football; Winners and Losers

Winners

Justin Fields

Last year I made a custom Justin Fields T-Shirt that said “I’m having a Fields Day”. As I currently write this, I am wearing it with absolute bullishness.

Finally, a superstar wide receiver by the name of DJ Moore has come to the aid of Fields to hopefully elevate this passing game after the Bears made a trade out of the #1 pick with the Panthers to acquire the WR.

Darnell Mooney didn’t quite fit the bill as the #1 guy but makes for an absolutely perfect #2 on the team.

Added to his increased weapons, we all know how devastating he was on the ground in 2022. He had over 70 rush yards in 8 of his last 10 games and broke the single-game rushing record for a quarterback (178 yards) against the Dolphins. His end of seasons stats saw him rush for over half of what his passing yards were.

If Fields and the offensive coaches can get a bit more efficient and productive on that side of things and Fields continues to progress as a player, Fields is easily a top 5 QB for me going forward despite always being prone to an interception or two.

Miles Sanders

Miles Sanders has top 10 RB finish potential in 2023, especially if the word on the street is true that the panthers see Sanders as a 3 down back. Sanders reunites with Josh McCown and his running backs coach Duce Staley from his rookie season in Philadelphia so its obvious that Sanders was somewhat of a priority for the Panthers.

Sanders had over 50 missed tackles recorded last season and whilst the juice drips away with every carry logged, he was hardly a workhorse in his time at Philly. He is more than competent in the passing game, vital for the incumbent rookie QB and his room mate Chuba Hubbard is nothing more than a relief type back so it’s all Miles to the moon.

Whilst the Panthers offensive line isn’t quite Phildelphia’s, Donta Foreman sure did get some gaping holes and productive stat lines last season.

I would more than happily give up a mid (1 QB) /late 1st (SF) for Sanders in dynasty at this point and could be a steal in 3rd/4th rounds of redraft, especially if you go zero RB early.

David Montgomery

Montgomery stays in the NFC North and comes to the Lions from the Bears.

Expect Montgomery to pick up the goal line work that saw his predecessor Jamaal Williams get a crazy amount of touches from inside the 10 in 2022 (45!) which helped him amass 17 rushing touchdowns. They say money talks and to give Monty a 3-year deal worth $18 million, with $11 million guaranteed says to me that they’ll give him the bulk of the work from the get go.

The Lions look to be a team on the up and looking to make some noise so should see positive game-scripts and were often in high-scoring games last year. High-scoring games = loads of fantasy points to go around.

Treat Montgomery as a guy on the RB 1/2 border for this upcoming year.

Garrett Wilson

Assuming Aaron Rodgers joins the Jets, it could be all systems go for the offensive Rookie of the year.

Looking at his splits between the QBs that formed the carousel last year, it’s clear Zach Wilson was restricting Wilson’s production capabilities. He still managed to turn in a 1,000 yard season off of 83 receptions but all Wilson needs is someone that can get him the ball and Rodgers is still one of the more accurate guys chucking the rock.

There are enough other weapons such as Lazard and Breece Hall that teams won’t be able to blanket cover Wilson to stifle him (not that it would matter too much). With an upgrade at QB, he should find the endzone a few more times than the 4 from 2022.

He’ll be a high-end WR2 with real possibility of being a WR1 (maybe even THE WR1? Bold prediction) should the Packers and Jets agree to a trade.

Jordan Love Owners

Finally! Those that have “held the bag” with regards to Jordan Love shares, you can let them loose in 2023!

Not saying that he’s a QB1, but considering how long you may have held on to those shares of Love and waiting with bated breath that the prima donna Aaron Rodgers finally walks out on Green Bay, at least you now have a player that is gonna score you some points. Blow the dust off the bench button on your respective apps and slot him into your Superflex spot. He should be your low end QB2/3 on your roster in Superflex leagues. It’s not much, but it’s better than a goose egg.

Shout out to those who held him since the rookie drafts!

Other Notable Winners:

Rhamondre Stevenson – Damien Harris gone, replaced by James Robinson. Does have some other 2nd year guys but should see a decent chunk of the load.

Tony Pollard – Zeke gone, replaced by Rojo. Cowboys may draft a bigger back but it looks a sthough pollard gets the keys in 2023.

Nico Collins – Whilst they brought in Schultz and have other guys there like Robert Woods from the Titans and Metchie possibly returning, I don’t think the Texans invest in a WR with premium draft capital in the draft. See if you can get him for a mid to late 2nd rounder in dynasty as he’ll be a good depth piece, especially if the QB they take smashes it.

Sleeper Alert

Samaje Perine – decent deal for Perine who produced in a full-time role when Mixon was out for the Bengals. Javonte Williams is no shoo-in to be ready to go week 1 so could be a cheap pickup and may even be on waivers right now. He could muscle his way into a timeshare and way outproduce his value.

Losers

De’Andre Swift

A rollercoaster of emotions no doubt in the Swift camp with the highs of seeing Jamaal Williams leave the Lions, but to then see David Montgomery come through the turnstiles at Ford Field no doubt saw his thoughts crash through the floor.

Swift is oft injured and whilst a really good, talented football player the Lions clearly can’t rely on him and have shown as much through their actions of the deal that D-Mont got as above.

Mike Evans/Chris Godwin

Going from Tom Brady to Baker Mayfield/Kyle Trask is like going from eating at a 5-star Michelin restaurant to eating off the floor.

Mike Evans’s 1,000 receiving yard streak is under threat and the ceilings of both he and Chris Godwin have reduced significantly with the Quarterback change in Tampa.

Purely because neither of the aforementioned QBs are going to throw in the vicinity of what Tom Brady did over the past few years (Brady threw over 700 balls last season!). The quality of targets will decrease as they won’t be as accurate and they are likely to score fewer points/have fewer trips to the redzone compared with the GOAT’s numbers.

Godwin is saved somewhat in PPR formats due to his role and Mayfield was able to find Jarvis Landry back in Cleveland so should be a low-ceiling WR2. Evans might even be a touchdown dependant WR3 in 2023 who may only be of use in bestball. Welp.

Michael Gallup

It’s commonly quite tough to hit the ground running after coming back from an ACL injury and you do find the first season back takes a bit of time to find your game.

That being said, Gallup may have lost his spot as the #2 in the depth chart at WR as the Cowboys have traded for Brandin Cooks so it seems the Cowboys aren’t going to gamble on Gallup being able to turn things around.

Added to this, the Cowboys make it clear they want to run the ball and will be a run-heavy offence in 2023. He should be a late-round bestball pick and will definitely be a guy that has 1 or 2 big games due to the high-powered nature of the offence, but good luck trying to identify when those will be.

Other losers to note:

Alvin Kamara – Jamaal Williams should continue his goalline trick for the saints, Kamara was already battling Hill for rushing TDs…And he may start the season suspended.

Dameon Pierce – Singletary joins the backfield and poses a problem to his workload. Pierce was great in his rookie year but Singletary who is much more competent in pass protection could take a chunk of a small fantasy scoring pie in Houston.

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Super Bowl Antepost Betting by Full10Bets

Long term Ante post bets are not for everyone. There’s only a small percentage of people that immediately pull up Super Bowl outright markets as soon as the season has finished. I find myself in that small percentage as this is where value can be found, especially if you are looking for teams that you think will improve considerably in the offseason not only in the draft, but in the impending free agency “frenzy” starting next week.

After tipping the Philadelphia Eagles last year (amongst some other picks that worked out not quite so well) as well as an indication that the Jags aren’t far away, I’ve decided to take an early look at some teams that could give you a decent run for your money at decent prices.

Jacksonville Jaguars – 28/1

It’s only right that I start with the Jaguars as I mentioned them in an ante post piece last year as one to keep an eye on. Whilst the price could’ve been a bit more juicy had they not made the playoffs after coming from the clouds to win the AFC South and also their wildcard round win against the Chargers, there is certainly plenty to like about how they’ve righted the ship with Doug Pederson after Urban Meyer’s car crash of an attempt and as a non T-Law believer, he could be on the path to proving me wrong.

If the upward trajectory continues with this team, 28/1 could look quite big.

They are in a terrible division where the Titans seemed to be regressing and could hit the reset button at any time with Henry and Tannehill looking like they are near the end of their roads, the Colts look certain to do the same and draft a rookie QB in this year’s draft but have an overpaid offensive line relative to their levels of performance and the Texans….yeaaaah.

It seems that it is almost certain that they’ll reach the playoffs, and host a game, again this year and at this stage, that’s all you can ask for. The Jags were top 10 in a lot of offensive metrics in 2023 and ended the regular season with 6 wins out of 7, taking down the likes of Dallas,

Calvin Ridley looks set to return to the NFL in 2023 after his suspension relating to gambling and adds another dimension to an offence with the franchise-tagged Evan Engram who has career highs in receptions and yards, similar comments apply to the big free agency signing from last year Christian Kirk. Travis Etienne lived up to his 1st round draft capital in his first taste of NFL action.

The defence, young and hungry led by linebackers Foyesade Oluokun and Devin Lloyd will need to improve as a unit on their 2022 performances in order to get to the big game.

It will seem weird not seeing Jacksonville early in the NFL draft order over the next 5-10 (barring injuries/trades etc), but I’m sure their fans (both in the US and UK) will not mind one bit.

New York Jets – 24/1 (VBet)

The Jets seem certain to upgrade the Quarterback position this offseason. Zach Wilson linked to moves away, Aaron Rodgers has said he’ll be playing there and if just waiting for the teams to sort out his trade,

The Jets put up some fantastic defensive performances last year and in only 3 games did teams score 27 points or more on them (2 of which were playoffs teams last season). Gang green amassed a 7-10 record. 6 of those wins came before their week 10 bye. Wins at Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Green Bay and Denver on paper don’t look that impressive considering the state of those teams, but as Jets fans who have suffered for long enough, it’s at least a signal of intent from Robert Saleh’s men that things are looking up. A home victory vs the Bills was their statement victory just before their bye and succumbed to issues with the QBs as well as the carousel along with the season-ending injury to Breece Hall, who looked explosive and should be ready from the get go in 2023 provided his ACL injury doesn’t see him lose any of that.

Their Wide Receiver room is varied and talented with the newly crowned offensive rookie of the year Garrett Wilson leading the way but have a lot of capable players for Rodgers to utilise should he join.

If they can stop the bleeding on teams rushing on them, they could easily challenge the Bills for the AFC East. Sauce Gardner proved every bit of his 4th overall pick landing the defensive rookie award and the combination with him and DJ Reed proved hard to beat with any ease.

The price is a bit short for my liking, but if Aaron Rodgers walks through the door, you’ll see it tumble further (as indicated by only Vbet having 24/1 with everywhere else a lot shorter).

Cleveland Browns – 40/1

Bit of a harder case to make here and the Browns threatened to throw their promising last few years out the window with the trade for Deshaun Watson however, if Watson manages to shake off the rest of his rust and find some sort of his old Texans form, there is a path that finds the Browns into the playoffs. Lamar Jackson looks certain to be heading for the exit door in Baltimore and the Steelers don’t convince me with that offensive line. The Bengals will be around for a few years but they are beatable as proved by their victory against them at home with Jacoby Brissett.

They too have enough pieces on offence and defence that warrant consideration at the prices but won’t get a chance to add to their roster in the 1st round of this year’s draft and aren’t sitting pretty with cap space.

Seattle Seahawks – 66/1

Geno Smith has just signed a deserved contract with the Seahawks and will lead the team once again next season. The Seahawks played some really good football last season, something which is synonymous with Pete Carroll coached teams. Kenneth Walker fit like a glove at running back and run his legs into the ground behind an offensive line that had two rookie tackles that played beyond expectations and could provide solid foundation for the Seahawk’s notorious love for the run game, whilst Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf continued to do what they do.

They have 2 1st and 2nd round picks courtesy of Denver which will help them beef up the defence once more as it seems their 2022 class on the offensive side was a big success.

One to watch: Detroit Lions – 33/1

There seems to be a theme for all the teams that have found their way into this shortlist, teams where the fanbases have suffered for a long long time. The Detroit Lions probably can argue for the longest about that particular element but the pieces are starting to fit together for Dan Campbell’s team and whilst Jared Goff is not going to win any team a Super Bowl, they have pieces on both sides of the ball which can be built upon. Pick 18 in this year’s draft may not get them a QB that is the highest on their big boards and they’ve committed to Goff this year, but that may be a blessing in disguise as there are plenty of Quarterbacks in this year’s class that may allow them to take one and let sit for a year.

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F10Y Betting; Super Bowl Novelty Bets; #SuperBowl #SBLVII

It’s officially Super Bowl week and as we look forward to the big one in Glendale, Arizona we want to first have a look at the stupid punts available for the game, and of course, there are more than ever in the week building up to the game.

There’s a myriad of markets available, mainly in the UK on SkyBet although PaddyPower will offer a few markets as well – After checking this, apparently, there are sod all places offering markets on Novelty bets for the Super Bowl, which is a little tedious. I’ll keep a lookout on other sites, but for now pretty much everything on this post will be Skybet.

So, let’s have a nose through from beginning to end and see if there’s anything we can jump on.

Final note before this – KEEP AN EYE ON TWITTER AND MOVE QUICKLY – There will be people leaking information from rehearsals, so you can get some easy wins before the action starts if you work quickly.

Obviously, go easy on these markets, they are stupid, and good for a bit of fun, so don’t go staking stupid amounts on things even after the inevitable leak.

Gambleaware.org

Pre-Game

Coin Toss

History; Because it’s DEFINITELY a predictive thing… 29-27 to Tails, the last two have been Heads leading them to 6 in the last 10 years.

Out of interest, weirdly the winner of the Coin Toss tends to lose the game – In fact, the last NINE winners of the coin toss have gone on to lose the game, it makes no sense, but there we are. – That is a bet-able market – “Will the coin toss winner win the game” – Obviously the no seems like the way to go there. 10/11 on both sides on PaddyPower.

Now, I have requested a market that SkyBet priced up last year, which was simply what the Chiefs (as the designated away team) will call – I believe they’ll call Tails, there’s not a whole lot out there but it seems like they tend to lean that way… The only way to get on that at the moment is “Chiefs to win the toss, Coin to land Tails” or “Eagles to win the Toss, coin to land on heads” – Both at 5/2, so that works out as a little profit. – I have requested just what they’ll call, I’m hoping they’ll go near evens on Tails.

National Anthem

Of course the most fun you can have, and easily the most easily corrupted, if you’re VERY quick is the length of the National Anthem, we’ve got a fella singing it this year, a Country singer by the name of Chris Stapleton, the length has gone over in recent years with a bevvy of ladies singing the anthem, I’m actually tempted to go under the length this year.

It opened at 2min 02seconds and is now up to 2mins 07 seconds – BUT the key here is to keep an eye on Twitter during the week. Someone WILL post a recording from outside the stadium and tell you exactly how long the anthem is.

Opening Kick-off to be a touchback?

In most games the opening kick-off will be a touchback, but the Super Bowl is a little different, it’s a brand spanking new ball that’s untouched before the kick-off, so it’s harder and doesn’t travel as far… last year the Rams vs Bengals was NOT a touchback. I’d be leaning to no touchback at plus money – 11/8 on 888 seems all right.

Half-Time Show – Rihanna

That’s the pre-game stuff looked at, now on to the Half Time show, which this year sees Rihanna break her 5-year hiatus from performing to come back in the big time in Arizona.

Again, of course, you want to keep an eye on Twitter during the week as someone may well leak what the 1st/last song will be, but we’ll have a little look at it here, why the hell not…

It looks like “Don’t stop the Music” has been taking money since the markets opened and is now into favouritism to open the show. I would assume that Umbrella would be closing the show, but it looks like I’m not the only person expecting that with it the fave for the final song of the set. Or former leader here at Full10yards.com Tim, was looking for Disturbia – A song which isn’t listed in many sites in the states.

Total Songs

Over is the usual go-to on total songs, they tend to play a minute or so of each, o9.5 is 4/5, so a slight lean according to the odds on that side of things.

Appear on stage

Rihanna – Feminist icon and hero, will she really allow a man to appear on stage? Even JayZ who has helped organise this show? Hmmm, it’s not something I’d be backing, especially at odds-on for him, Drake is at 1/2 as well, please god no, or her fella A$AP Rocky is there at 5/2 to get on stage.

You can’t bet on it in the UK, but putting your mortgage on Cleavage at 1/5 would have been a banker, surely?!

Post-Game

Gatorade Shower

So, maybe not post-game but the end of the game at least, you can obviously pick the colour of the Gatorade thrown over the winning coach and we’ve got two fairly recent Super Bowl winners here, the Eagles had Yellow a few years back when they beat the Pats, while the Chiefs went for Orange when beating the 49ers three years ago.

Same coaching staff for the Chiefs, different for the Eagles, but Yellow looks like it could be the one to bet on here – 3/1 isn’t bad on that I guess, and it was Yellow which went on Sirianni when they won the NFC Championship game a couple of weeks ago

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F10Y CFB – Week 12 Scouting Notes, UCLA vs. USC

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The penultimate week of the regular season threw up some absolute barnstormers, with all of the top four teams having some issues, and a couple were very close to defeat.

The deep dive this week though features the battle of Los Angeles, and probably the best uniform matchup of the season.

USC edged their rivals UCLA in a thriller 48-45 and this win keeps the Trojans play-off hopes alive, although a lot will have to happen to get in.

However they are still in with a chance.

We’ll start the notes on the unlucky losers…

UCLA

Head Coach Chip Kelly may not have done well in the NFL ranks, but as a college coach no one can doubt his record. He is taking UCLA in the right direction, and more importantly for us, coaching his players up to an NFL level.

Quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson (DTR to his mates) is one of the most exciting college passers out there right now.

When he gets things right he looks like the second coming of Lamar Jackson, but when it’s bad he looks like an undrafted free agent. This game summed him up beautifully.

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He had 390 total yards and 6 total touchdowns, but threw three horrible interceptions that ultimately cost his team the chance to win this game. There’s no doubting his commitment and desire, he leads the Bruins with confidence and carries them as far as he can, but those mental mistakes are always there.

The NFL won’t waste good draft capital on players like him.

He has played better though this season, and there are certainly tools to work with, so teams may start looking at him on early day three, but you do get a sense that he’ll be a better college quarterback than NFL one. 

Michigan transfer Running Back Zach Charbonnet has been a revelation for the Bruins these last couple of seasons. He is a bigger power type back, who will gain every yard available and run through you to do it.

He was up against a decent USC front seven, but still ploughed his way for 95 yards at 5 yards per rush. This was his second lowest output of the season, which shows you he is having another productive year in the PAC 12 and making a name for himself.

He does lack the burst and cutting ability that the great backs do, but NFL teams need backs like these to complement their rushing attacks, so although he won’t blow people away with his testing, he should still be a priority pick come day three of the draft.

Another transfer who is having a great season for UCLA is former Duke receiver Jake Bobo.

I really liked Bobo’s 2021 tape with the Blue Devils, and it looks like he is thriving again this season, just on a different team. He is a big target at 6’5 215lbs, and does use his size well to block out defenders when the ball is coming his way, but he is more than just a big body receiver.

Bobo can win in the slot or on the outside, and although clearly not a dynamic athlete, he certainly isn’t a terrible one either. He had 4 catches for 76 yards in this game, was active in the run game too, helping blocking downfield. However, he have two drops, which is very uncharacteristic of him.

Players like Bobo will more than likely go on day three of the draft, but they almost always make NFL rosters and contribute in the pros. 

Defensively, the Bruins struggled to contain USC’s high volume offense, but from an NFL point of view, they do have a couple of interesting pass rushers who are both getting a fair bit of buzz. 

EDGE Laiatu Latu has a very interesting back story to him. He was a four star recruit who went to Washington and had a nice Freshman season in 2019.

He then suffered a neck injury prior to the 2020 season and team doctors advised him to retire rather than play on and risk permanent damage.

After two seasons away from football he entered the transfer portal and joined UCLA, where their doctors cleared him to play, and he has been amazing for them so far this season.

Latu is currently tied sixth in the nation with 9.5 sacks and has become a pass rushing demon.

I’ve caught a few UCLA games this season and he has stood out in all of them, including this one. He has a long and slippery frame, has active hands and never stays blocked for long.

In fairness to USC they did a better job on him in the second half, but he still finished with 4 tackles and 1.5 sacks.

From a draft perspective, the medicals obviously will be a massive deal, but if he does declare and the medicals check out, then you have an upside player worth taking a risk on. 

The other Bruins EDGE causing some noise is North Texas transfer Gabriel Murphy. He and his twin brother Grayson transferred over together in the off season, and they are both having very nice seasons.

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Grayson has been more productive on the stat sheet, but for me Gabriel looks the better all round player. Like Latu, Murphy has stood out every time UCLA has been on, and again here he gave USC’s very talented offensive line plenty of trouble.

He is strong at the point of attack and disengages quickly to disrupt plays. Gabriel lacks the length and burst that Latu has, but he looks a much better all round player and would make a nice 4-3 base end. He (and his brother) have a year of eligibility left, so he may well go back to school, but if he were to come out I think he’d be a mid round steal for someone.

USC

The Trojans are a very exciting team to watch right now, and honestly, I think this offense, along with Ohio State’s, are the only two that would give Georgia’s vaunted defense any issues. 

The leader of this gang is Oklahoma transfer Quarterback Caleb Williams. He has been nothing short of sensational this season and quite rightly is a Heisman Trophy candidate. You can’t help but think of Patrick Mahomes when you watch him, as he can turn any play into one of those WOW moments.

Williams has everything you look for tools wise, and although he may get knocked for his size, he is easily big enough to handle the NFL life. This game had so many highlights it’s impossible to list them all, but most of them came out of structure, hitting receivers in stride in tight windows. He threw for 470 yards with two touchdowns and one pick.

The interception showed he still makes the odd mental mistake, but as a true sophomore that is expected, the great plays still vastly outweigh the bad ones. He has every chance to be the number one overall pick in next year’s draft. 

The Trojan’s star Wide Receiver Jordan Addison has had some recent injury woes, missing two of the last three games and barely featuring in the other. So, with that in mind, it was good to see him back to his best in this game, having a season best 178 yards on 11 catches and a touchdown.

Addison’s presence takes this offense over the top, as they have so much talent on the field it’s impossible to cover all of them. He looks like a spitting image size wise of Eagles wide receiver Devonta Smith, and there is a similarity to their styles of play too.

Addison is dynamic with the ball in his hand and has enough speed and savvy to create separation, so his lack of size is negated.

In my book, he is clearly one of the top wide receivers in college football, and if he can finish the season strong he should be in the conversation to be WR1 come draft day.

Defensively USC are lacking superstars, but there were a couple of guys in this game who certainly helped themselves from a draft prospective. 

EDGE Tuli Tuipulotu currently shares the lead nationally in sacks with 11.5. He was actually held sackless in this game, but the disruption he caused in both the run and passing game was excellent throughout.

He reminds me of how Texas A&M used DeMarvin Leal last year, but unlike Leal, this dude plays with his hair on fire every snap. USC even stands him up and let him rush with a head start from a yard or two off the line of scrimmage, and that’s a scary sight watching a 285lb man smashing into static guards.

Tuipulotu has decent bend as a pass rusher, especially considering his size, but his NFL money would be made inside you’d expect, or as a five tech. He really has put himself on the map with the phenomenal season he is having, and he could easily end up as a first round pick, if the right team thinks he is the missing piece to their defense.

Colorado had two excellent cornerbacks last year. Unfortunately for the Buffalos, both transferred out and ended up at rival PAC 12 teams. Christian Gonzalez is having an excellent season at Oregon, and may have become a first round pick. However, we shouldn’t forget about the “other” former Buffalo, Mekhi Blackmon, who is now at USC.

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The Colorado tape, particularly the 2020 season is excellent, and now he is showing out at a top program and getting himself noticed.

Blackmon moves really well, fluid in transitions and can stick with receivers down the field. He gave up just 3 catches on 6 targets with no big plays allowed, and even came up with an excellent interception to top it all off.

An older prospect, in a position where the NFL prefers youth, but there’s too much to like about Blackmon to ignore. Hopefully he can workout well, and although he won’t go as high as his former teammate Gonzalez, he should be in consideration as a late day two player. 

Interestingly these former teammates could very well meet in the PAC12 Championship game, if Oregon manages to beat Oregon State at the weekend. 

Follow Keith on Twitter – @Lordlucken

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F10Y CFB – Week 11 Scouting Notes, Texas vs. TCU

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The week 11 slate of games wasn’t at the same level as the previous weeks, but the Texas vs. TCU match up was littered with future NFL studs, so this got my vote for a deep dive. 

The game was very un-Big XII like with both defenses really showing up and slowing down each other’s potent offense.

It wasn’t until late in the third quarter that the first touchdown was scored, and only one more offensive one was scored in the rest of the game.

Texas Christian thoroughly deserved their 17-10 victory, and they march on unbeaten still and have a realistic shot at getting into the college football playoff.

We’ll start the round up with those happy Horned Frogs…

TCU

The rumour before the game was that star wide receiver Quentin Johnston may miss the game because of an injury, but he ended playing about two thirds of the snaps in the end.

He certainly didn’t look at full speed out there, but even a 75% fit Johnston is a weapon, and he ended up making the biggest play of the game. He took advantage of a coverage bust to get behind the Texas safeties, and catch a deep ball uncontested in the end zone.

This essentially put TCU out of sight.

He was pretty well marshalled otherwise, though certainly some of that was him not being at full speed. After a very slow start to the season Johnston had really begun to ramp up the production in recent weeks, so hopefully this knock doesn’t slow him down and he can finish the season strong.

Because of his physical traits he will certainly have many NFL scouts as fans, and in an uncertain wide receiver class, he has every chance of being WR1 on some teams’ boards come April. 

There wasn’t a lot to get excited about offensively for TCU, but I thought left tackle Brandon Coleman looked good out there, albeit after a pretty shaky first quarter. He gave up a sack early on and looked confused as Texas dialled up quite a few different pressures, but once he settled down he controlled the edges nicely. Coleman also helped carve out some decent running lanes, particularly in the second half.

He is a big man (6’6 325lbs) but plays with light feet and strong hands and is having himself a very nice season. He is still only a Junior, so he will probably go back to school, but he is getting some attention right now with the season he, and this whole offensive line in general, are having. 

Most of the talk about running backs pre game would have been centered around the star on the other team, but TCU’s running back Kendre Miller stole the show from his more famous counterpart in the game.

He is a bigger back at 6’0 220lbs, but he certainly isn’t slow, as he showed by breaking a run off tackle, and out-running a couple of Texas defensive backs down the sideline for the long touchdown above.

This was his highlight play, but perhaps more impressive was the way he made every available yard, from every rush attempt, leaving no yards on the field.

He is tough, quick and has decent hands, so he is a nice complete back with plenty of tread left on his tyres. If he comes out early he has a chance to be a top 100 player. However, when we consider that the upcoming draft has a decent RB class he may go back to school and try to be a top five back in next year’s group.

Defensively, the Horned Frogs were excellent throughout this game, really slowing down one of the most exciting offenses in college football. There were quite a few stand-out performances, but I’ll highlight a couple of guys who really stepped up and made the plays when called upon.

I’ll admit that I’d never heard of Linebacker Johnny Hodges before this season, but the Navy transfer is having an excellent season and has impressed me every time I’ve watched TCU.

He was one of the main reasons that the usually dominant Texas running game could never get going. He flew around the field filling run lanes and chasing down plays, and ended up having 11 tackles, with 1.5 for a loss. He has the size and speed you look for, and at the very least you’ll get a special teams demon, but with the chance of becoming much more with time.

I’ve been a big fan of Cornerback Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson for the last couple of years now.

He is one of those guys who just makes highlight plays week in, week out, but will be knocked down draft boards because of his size. Being only 5’9 185lbs is a problem for most, but Hodges-Tomlinson plays like a much bigger corner with his physical style of play.

That can get him into trouble at times, as he tends to get a bit grabby against bigger receivers, but he loves the challenge of being the underdog, and you can’t help but be impressed with how he plays.

He was excellent in this game, going up against top quality receivers and only giving 1 reception on 8 targets.

He had this great deep ball interception, running in stride with the receiver down the middle of field and making the play on the underthrown ball. He also showed his aggressiveness at the catch point, batting away a ball intended for Texas’s 6’4 tight end on the sideline.

I really hope NFL teams overlook his size issues, as his style of play is so infectious that you can’t help but root for this guy.

Texas

This Texas offense has been exciting this season, but they came crashing down to earth here as the Horned Frogs had an excellent game plan to slow them down, and they executed it perfectly.

Quarterback Quinn Ewers has been the main reason that Texas fans are getting excited about their team again, but this game will be one he’ll want to forget.

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He never got into any kind of rhythm at all, and missed on quite a few deep balls, and a certain touchdown on a wheel route that he never saw. He is still very young and there will be growing pains in games like this one, but there’s no doubting the talent he has. As long as we don’t see too many more games like this one, he’ll still have a chance to be a top five pick next year.

The star of this whole Longhorn team though is Running Back Bijan Robinson. No other team has stopped Robinson like TCU did, they held him to a two year low of 29 yards on 12 carries, without a catch too.

The whole offense struggled so this isn’t all on Robinson, but he’ll have the NFL scouts asking him what happened here when they talk to him next, and he’ll need some good answers for them

 This game won’t affect his stock too much though, as he has so much good tape out there already, and I’m still certain he’ll be a first round pick in April.

The one bright spark for me on offense was Wide Receiver Jordan Whittington. He looked like the only weapon out there hauling in 6 catches for 78 yards.

Whittington has some nice after the catch ability and reminds me a bit of Deebo Samuel with the way he can break tackles. That said, he has nowhere near the production that Samuel had in college but the skill set is similar, and another year in this system will only boost his draft stock.

For three quarters the Texas defense played lights out, but they just ran out of puff in the end, which was hardly surprising given how much time they were on the field in the second half.

The two big senior Defensive Tackles Keondre Coburn and T’Vondre Sweat both had nice games, especially against the run. These two are very similar in size and the way they play, both excellent run defenders who can flash a pass rush move as well at times.

Coburn is the more highly rated right now and a probable day two pick, whilst I think Sweat may end up as an early day three type.

I had mixed feelings when I studied Linebacker DeMarvion Overshown in the summer. From what I’ve seen this season he has become a lot more consistent, and the position looks a lot more natural to him too now. He was always around the ball and finished with a team high 11 tackles in this game.

If he tests OK, he should be a day two player, but there is a fear that he might not test well, and if that happens you’ll be looking at a mid round guy.

For me the star of the game was Texas Nickel Jahdae Barron.

He has been impressive every time I’ve put on Texas, but in this game he was on a different level. He was so quick to diagnose throws into the flat, flying up the field beating blockers and making the tackle.

Barron showed he can also match receivers down the field, staying in phase nicely and taking away targets. He topped his day off with a scoop and score after a botched exchange in the backfield, picking up the ball in stride and running away from pursuit. He has decent size and physicality, and if he stays in school he could easily be spoken about in the same way Alabama’s Brian Branch is being talked about now.

Follow Keith on Twitter @lordlucken

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F10Y CFB – Week 10 Scouting Notes, Georgia vs. Tennessee

This game has been on everyone’s mind from the moment Tennessee upset Alabama in week seven. These were the top two teams in the country, although the playoff committee didn’t agree, having Ohio State ranked between them. For the added drama this was set up as the game of the season! One which would go a long way to deciding who will win the SEC East, and make the SEC championship game.

In all honesty the game never lived up to the billing, as the Georgia defense suffocated one of the best offenses in the country, and rightly won the game 27-13. 

I’ve covered Tennessee a couple of times already this season, so we’ll focus the main notes on the Georgia players, but we’ll start with some brief notes on the defeated Volunteers.

Tennessee

I’ve been a big fan of quarterback Hendon Hooker and his performances this season, but even I will admit that this was not a good day at the office for him. He was constantly harassed by the Georgia front four, and his big play receivers were very much kept in check.

He looked sharp completing short passes, but he missed on three big deep balls, over throwing his receivers every time. From a scouting perspective this game showed the limitations he has, but it shouldn’t hurt his stock too much, as he already has big performances in big games this season. So when evaluating, there’s no need to start moving him down boards on just one bad day.

Tennessee were very happy to have wide receiver Cedric Tillman back from injury, and although his stat line doesn’t stand out (7 catches for 68 yards), it was nice to see him back out there and showing the scouts his nice routes and sure hands.

In Tillman’s absence Wide Receiver Jalin Hyatt has been putting up some monster performances. Hyatt couldn’t really get going in this game though as he was superbly marshalled by the Bulldog secondary.

He also got hurt twice in the game and never really threatened the big plays like he has in the previous weeks. His name is still hot right now though, and if he hasn’t sustained any game costing injuries, he has an easy three game slate to finish the season and keep his name relevant. 

I think right tackle Darnell Wright has moved himself into the top 100 with his performances this season, and he did a good job in this game too, which will keep his stock on the up.

Without elite EDGE Nolan Smith, most of the Georgia pressures were from the interior, but when the Bulldogs did send outside rushers Wright handled them easily. He has all the tools you need, and now the light seems to have come on for this former 5-star recruit, and he is starting to live up to the high school hype and play his way into day two of the draft. 

Georgia

This Georgia team has a true leader in quarterback Stetson Bennett, and no matter what you think of him as a draft prospect, it’s hard not to root for this undersized overachiever.

The offense goes through him, and he makes enough good throws and improvised plays, to always have his team in position to win games. He was excellent here hitting the big plays when needed, and his running touchdown was a thing of beauty.

All that being said, Bennett is probably not going to be drafted, as his size limitations and arm strength will be big issues. Even so, you can easily see him being a Chase Daniel type back-up in the NFL and will probably turn into a very good coach when he’s done playing.

The star of this offense is Tight End Brock Bowers. He’ll be eligible for next year’s draft, but he is already the front runner to be TE1 in the 2024 group.

He is undersized (6’3 230lbs) and is deployed more like a receiver than a true tight end so he can show off his excellent hands and run after catch ability.

Tennessee did a pretty good job on him here though and limited him to just three catches in the game, but you can see the great hands and precise routes are there, and he will be widely talked about in next year’s cycle. 

Fellow Tight End Darnell Washington is draft eligible though, and he has been making quite a name for himself this year. Some of his highlight plays from earlier in the season are quite mind-blowing, especially when you consider his size.

He is almost like an extra offensive tackle out there, but one that can catch and probably run in the 4.5’s at the combine, making him a really intriguing prospect.

This game won’t feature on his highlight reel though, as he was held catchless, and his trademark aggressive blocking wasn’t as destructive as it normally is. He is still going to be drafted high, if he decides to come out, but he needs to pick the production back up, and get himself back into the TE2 conversation.

Georgia has produced some very good offensive lineman in recent years, and there’s two more that have first round potential, if they declare. Both center Sedrick Van Pran-Granger and left tackle Broderick Jones are Redshirt Sophomores and are listed as the same size too at 6’4 310lbs, but there is a difference of over 500 snaps played between the two. Van Pran-Granger has played the more snaps and he is a lot more polished technique wise.

He is an excellent tone setting leader of this line, and has played exceptionally well this season, including this game where he was picking up blitzes and opening up nice running lanes all day long. He has great football IQ, looks a decent athlete and has a strong powerful base, all vital traits of playing Center. There really isn’t a clear cut OC1 in this class yet, so if he were to declare he’d put himself in that mix for sure.

For someone so young, he has a really high floor and would be a very safe pick who could anchor your line for a decade. 

Jones on the other hand would be much more of a gamble, but he plays the premium left tackle position, where teams are more likely to take a chance on potential rather than production.

I was super high on Jones during the summer, as you could see from the few games he stepped in for Jamaree Salyer last year that he was so naturally gifted.

However, I’m not sure I’ve seen enough progress this season to give him the lofty top ten pick that I’ve seen in recent mock drafts. He was inconsistent here against Tennessee, looking like an All-Pro on one play and undraftable the next, but teams will look at that upside and think they may get the next great one. But it all hinges on whether he can fulfil that potential.

I personally would like to see him go back for another year at Georgia and iron out those flaws he has now, as if he did, he has number one overall pick potential.

If he did come out though, I can see him ending up in the range that Dallas took Tulsa’s Tyler Smith last year, a player he compares favourably to, right now.

This Georgia defense lost so much talent to the NFL last year that there were questions entering this season whether they would be able to replace them all.

Well they have.

With Defensive Tackle Jalen Carter, they probably have the best player they’ve had for some time. Carter has been banged up this year, missing two full games and barely featuring in several others. However, for this game, he was back to full strength, and boy what a difference he makes to this team.

He is such a phenomenal watch, it’s so easy to just focus on him alone and watch him tear apart respected offensive lineman. Tennessee’s guard Javontez Spraggins will be having nightmares after Carter took his soul in this game.

He has such a quick first step that  he can club, swim or bull rush you before you are set, and in a blink of an eye he is in the backfield causing mayhem. He was credited with four tackles, two for a loss and a sack.

Not only that but he caused two fumbles too, all in his first full time action for months against the number one ranked team!

He is a lock for the top ten, and depending on what team is drafting where, has a legitimate shot at being a top three pick.

Georgia has another potential first round defender in cornerback Kelee Ringo. He was another one who flashed huge potential last season when he cracked the starting lineup, but hasn’t kicked on quite as much as hoped, although he is still flashing elite traits at times.

He had a very up and down game here against the Volunteers, giving up eight catches on just nine targets, but then made a sensational interception on a deep ball in the end zone. He has all the size and speed you want, but his technique can fail him at times, and he has given up 61.1% receptions when targeted, which is far too high for a player of his calibre.

Whilst this isn’t the season he wanted so far, plays like the interception in this game show what he can be. Big speedy corners like this don’t grow on trees, and usually end up as first round picks.

Follow Keith on Twitter @lordlucken

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F10Y CFB – Week 9 Scouting Notes, Penn State vs. Ohio State

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The week 9 slate threw up a couple of interesting matchups. I hadn’t had a good look at Ohio State since their week 1 win against Notre Dame, so away at Penn State seemed a good time to check-in on some top talent, not only the Buckeyes, but a couple of highly rated Nittany Lions too. 

The game itself was a tight affair, with the Buckeyes having to fight tooth and nail to maintain their unbeaten start. They did come through in the end though winning 44-31, although the game was much tighter than the final score suggests.

We’ll start the notes with the winning Buckeyes…

Ohio State

Quarterback C.J Stroud seems to be suffering from the “over analysis brigade” this year. He is putting together a Heisman Trophy winning type season. However, the nit-pickers are highlighting some flaws, whilst ignoring the consistency and production.

Penn State gave him some issues, and truth be told it was the defense that won this game for Ohio State. That said you can’t ignore the poise and accuracy he displays from the pocket. The questions come when being asked to perform out of structure, and there’s no doubt this is his biggest weakness, but what you see from him when he’s kept clean, is one of the best clinical passers in football.

I still believe he will be QB1 come April, but in all honesty you can’t go wrong with either him or Alabama’s Bryce Young.

Stroud may have a limited ceiling, but he has such a high floor that he seems like a safe, NFL starter ready player, and those types will go very high.

Stroud’s favourite target this year has been Freshman sensation Wide Receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. Those old enough (like me) will remember his Dad destroying cornerbacks in the NFL from 1996-2008 with the Indianapolis Colts, and his son looks like he may be as good as his old man, who of course is a Hall of Famer. Those are lofty expectations, but what he displayed in this game was his smooth routes and excellent hands.

I would go so far to say that I’m certain if he was draft eligible he would be WR1 in this class.

We’ll have to wait until next year to salivate over this next great Ohio State receiver prospect as he already looks like a certain future first round pick. And would it be bold to say, possibly a high end one at that?

Left tackle Paris Johnson was very highly thought of coming into the season, but there was a question mark about how he’d transition over from guard, where he spent the 2021 season.

Well, from what I’ve seen so far this season, he’s done a very nice job, so much so that he has been talked about now as a potential top ten pick.

I really like him as a prospect too, but this tape against Penn State makes me pause, and perhaps we need to lower that hype just a touch?

 There is no doubting his natural ability and athleticism – that’s easy to see – But there still seem to be some mental errors and technique issues that would need clearing up before slotting him in the top ten for me.

Right tackle Dawand Jones is almost the complete opposite of Paris Johnson. He is a massive (6’8 360lbs) road grader who once he gets his hands on you it’s over.

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He has better athleticism than you’d think for such a huge human, but he does get done by quicker, shiftier Edges, who can get by him in a flash. He is a plug and play right tackle in the NFL and there’s an easy comparison to Trent Brown. Brown has carved out a nice career for himself, despite originally being just a seventh round pick.

Jones displayed his heavy hands and brute power in the run game against the Nittany Lions and he looked pretty good in pass protection too, as he held up well against their edge rushers, but he had some trouble with the blitz’s that Penn State dialled up.

He will be viewed as a high floor player who should be selected somewhere on day two of the draft.

As I mentioned earlier the Buckeyes have their defense to thank for this win. There were numerous standout performances but we have to start with the quite incredible show that EDGE J.T Tuimoloau put on.

It’s not often that a defensive lineman will grab an interception, but Tuimoloau didn’t just get one against the Nittany Lions, no he bagged two of them, and returned the second one 18 yards for a touchdown too.

He also battered a pass that was intercepted by fellow EDGE Zach Harrison, recorded three tackles-for-loss, two sacks and a forced fumble. Quite an afternoon from the sophomore and one that will really put him on scouts’ radars.

The interceptions were very different, the first being a great read on the running back coming out in the flat and jumping the route. The second was leaping high mid pass rush, to grab the ball intended for a receiver behind him. Both of these plays demonstrated elite athleticism and high football IQ.

However, we mustn’t get carried away here.

All of his pass rush wins were against the back-up right tackle, who was playing because of injury to their regular starter, and he was having a complete mare. I don’t think he is the second coming of Chase Young or the Bosas, he doesn’t have that kind of bend around the edge that the top pass rushers do.

But one thing he has now, is a statement game on tape and something to build on heading into the 2023 season. 

Junior safety Ronnie Hickman has impressed me quite a bit this year, and that continued with another good showing in this game. He is such a solid all round player.

Hickman is good against the run and a willing tackler, he also has nice athleticism and play recognition to match up in the passing game. He was always around the ball and finished with six tackles, three passes defensed and a forced fumble. Even the negatives were not so negative either – The only completion he gave up went for just four yards.

If it wasn’t for Tuimoloau, Hickman would have been the talk of the game. There isn’t a clear cut number one safety in this draft class, but Hickman is certainly making his way up boards and he would be a top five safety for me right now.

Penn State

The Nittany Lions were in this game deep into the fourth quarter, which is a testament to them, as there is a big gulf in the quality of draft prospects between the two teams. They do have a couple of players who are getting quite a bit of buzz right now, so let’s see how they did in this game.

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We’ll start with Left Tackle Olu Fashanu, who right now is being discussed as an OT1 possibility. He is only 19 years old, but is draft eligible and he has scouts drooling with his natural ability.

He is quite an easy watch, especially in pass protection, where he has excellent feet to control the arc and strong hands on long arms to ride pass rushers away with ease.

The problems occured in the run game where he was often beaten to his spot by a defender and knocked off balance. He does have everything scouts want in a blindside protector though, size, arm length and athleticism, so it’s easy to understand why he’s moving up boards.

I would just like to see him become more refined, especially in the run game, before investing a round one pick on him. There is a chance of course he returns to Happy Valley for another season, but with the tackle class this wide open I think he would be a certain first rounder if he did come out.

Like Marvin Harrison, Cornerback Joey Porter Jr. is the son of a former NFL star too. Joey Porter Sr. was a Pittsburgh Steeler legend in his day, and now his son is climbing rapidly up draft boards and into first round mocks.

Porter Jr. is as feisty as his old man was, he is just 40 odd pounds lighter and playing a totally different position.

We were hoping to see plenty of Harrison vs. Porter matchups during the game, but the truth was they only battled each other on a handful of plays. They were a fun watch though, and although Harrison had the big stat line, Porter matched up nicely with him when they did face off.

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Porter’s physicality is both a positive and negative though. Everyone loves a physical corner who isn’t afraid to hit in the run game and jam receivers off of routes, but he also gets very grabby. He was called deservedly for one pass interference penalty in the game because of this.

I think Porter will appeal to lots of NFL teams, but without elite athleticism I think he may end up as a day two player rather than going in the first round.

Penn State’s best player in this game was wide receiver Parker Washington, who I’ve been high on for the last couple of seasons.

He had his biggest game of the season, against the highest ranked opponent they’ll play, catching 11 balls for 179 yards and one touchdown. He has great hands, runs nice routes and always seems to find a way to get open. And he does all of this without being the best athlete on the field.

How about this for a way to bring this article to a close… I feel like there’s a bit of Deebo Samuel about him, and I think if he test’s OK he may sneak into day two of the draft, if he comes out.

Check back with me in April on that one.

Follow Keith on Twitter @LordLucken

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2022 CFB: Week 8 – Winners & Losers

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WINNERS

Ohio State

Amidst all the close matchups and upset wins over the last few weeks, one thing has remained consistent. Ohio State’s offense is bullying teams.

The Buckeyes have an unbelievable conveyor belt of elite wide receivers, which is full credit to the recruiting staff and those that develop the players once they’re on campus. But those receivers would be nowhere near as productive without the dominant play of CJ Stroud.

On Saturday Stroud pushed Ohio State past Iowa in a scrappy game which saw turnovers galore. The Hawkeyes defense is strong, and that showed as they managed to shut down the Buckeyes running game. However, if teams commit to stopping TreVeyon Henderson and co then there’s a strong chance that Stroud will have plenty of favourable matchups through the air. With touchdown grabs for Julia Fleming, Marvin Harrison Jr & Emeka Egbuka, that was very much the case – and the Buckeyes were able to limit Jaxson Smith-Njigba thanks to their dominance.

Still, this wasn’t a vintage display by any means. Stroud threw an interception and fumbled, Henderson managed just 38 yards and there wasn’t quite the tempo that the Buckeyes’ fans are used to seeing. But this is exactly why they’re a winner. When you’re not playing at 100% but still beating a 3-3 team by 44 points, you’ve got an excellent shot at a National Championship.

Will Shipley

In a crucial game for Clemson, Dabo Swinney needed his highly touted QB to step up to the plate and dominate Syracuse’s defense. Sadly, as we’ve come to expect from DJ Uiagalelei, that didn’t happen.

If Uiagalelei isn’t playing well, the Tigers can often rely on their elite defense to carry them through a game. But for long periods at the start of Saturday’s game Garret Schrader was able to move the ball as he needed to. That certainly changed after half-time, with the Orange held scoreless, but there was only one reason that Clemson were still in the game at that point. That was sophomore running back, Will Shipley.

Time and again this season, Shipley has lifted Clemson’s offense with his hard running style and key third down conversions. Through five games in 2022, Shipley has carried the ball 123 times for 739 yards and ten touchdowns. Saturday’s performance was his best of the year, as his 172 yards and two scores proved vital in a 27-21 win. 

The mark of a good team is having someone step up when others aren’t at their best. With Shipley supporting an average QB, he’ll be needed more often than not this year. 

South Carolina

Texas A&M taking a beating seems to be a pretty regular thing this season. With Saturday’s loss, the Aggies have now dropped four games in 2022, a remarkable thing for a team that was boasting of a historic recruiting class during the Summer.

But the Aggies’ loss wasn’t all about them this weekend. South Carolina look like a dangerous team at present. With Spencer Rattler and the helm and Marshawn Lloyd tearing things up in the backfield, they’ve got a chance to make a splash in every game.

The standout player on Saturday however, was on defense for the Gamecocks. Darius Rush had a humongous game, with a 59 yard interception, a pass defensed and six solo tackles. The senior defensive back is having a strong year as he looks to be drafted in 2023.

With a win against the Aggies, South Carolina moved to 5-2 on the season. A remarkable feat considering the state the programme was in when Shane Beamer took over a year and a half ago.

LOSERS

Zach Gibson

With Jeff Sims knocked out of the game for Georgia Tech on Friday night, it was Zach Gibson’s time to shine as the Yellow Jackets looked to come from behind against the Virginia Cavaliers.

Gibson had a significant amount of experience as the starter for Tech in 2021, so he was no deer in the headlines when he ran out onto the field. Sure, he may not have been fully prepared to play, especially given the way Sims has played at times this season.

However, with the final play of the game, Gibson had the chance to make a play. Stepping out of the pocket to buy time, with the Yellow Jackets down seven points, everyone expected him to haul the ball down field. Instead, the Alpharetta native jogged out of play to end the game.

Miami

Miami have been a regular in this slot over the course of the season. What promised to be a bright season has fallen away into a poor first year for Head Coach, Mario Cristobal.

On Saturday, the Hurricanes were on the end of a drubbing from Duke. Before the season that would have been unthinkable, with Tyler Van Dyke and others drawing rave reviews from not only the CFB community, but everyone associated with the NFL draft.

With Duke QB, Riley Leonard, rushing for three touchdowns and the wider offense putting up 200 yards on the ground, there wasn’t much that Miami could do to slow them down. But it was the offensive line that struggled the most, as Duke tallied six sacks and seven tackles for a loss.

It’s blindingly obvious that there are holes all over the Hurricanes’ roster, but the one silver lining for Miami’s fans is that Cristobal is an expert at attracting talent. They’ll need to recruit some record breaking classes to turn things around in South Florida, could it all be a bit too much for the former Oregon Head Coach?

Grant Sands

If you’ve not seen the viral tweets about Weber State’s record breaking four safeties in their loss to Montana State, then do watch the below clip. Grant Sands is probably having a rough weekend after achieving viral fame, so the video can speak for itself.

By Andy Moore – @ajmoore21

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2022 CFB: Just who is Pitt’s Record-Breaking Running Back?

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In the first part of our focus on College Football’s most exciting running backs, we look at a player who has really excelled in the 2022 season. His performance against Virginia Tech was a real indicator of what he has to offer, and really put himself on the map with his record-breaking performance.

This RBRB (record-breaking running back) is Pittsburgh’s Israel Abanikanda. The Junior from Brooklyn, New York, rushed for just 635 yards in 2021, with seven touchdowns, but he has already broken both his personal bests this year in half the time.

So just how has Abanikanda gone from being an average running back to one of the hottest in the country right now? We take a deeper dive into what he offers to Pittsburgh and the way he has adapted to be a pivotal part of their offense.

Who is Israel Abanikanda?

Abanikanda is a 5’11, 215lb running back that, in High School, was named as New York’s Gatorade Player of the Year, leading the Public Schools Athletic League (PSAL) in rushing and scoring as a Senior.

His ability on the High School football field couldn’t be doubted, and as a Senior he rushed for 1350 yards and totalled 166 points (25 touchdowns and 8 two-point conversions). On top of that his athletic nature saw him as a two-time 100-meter gold medallist in the New York City Mayor’s Cup. A physical runner blessed with power and speed; he is really starting to show his worth in Pittsburgh.

Let’s use some of his clips to show what he can do.

In this clip of Abanikanda tying the ACC and Pitt touchdown record, he shows that pure physicality and speed to make the defense look like they aren’t even there.

As soon as he receives the ball there is clearly a bunch of players through the middle, cutting off a clear running route, however, the way he shifts his feet and follows the blocker he targets the open space made for him.

Then the accelerators burst into life, and he drives through the middle of three defenders, ending up in the endzone about ten yards in front of them. Even more impressive was the fact this was nearly halfway through the final quarter, for his sixth touchdown and brought him up to 298 rushing yards. 

His performance was frighteningly good. He was explosive on the getaway, but his ability to turn mid-yardage drive into big drives shows true ability. He racked up nine carries of 10+ yards and seven carries of 15+ yards, accumulating 237 yards on designed rushing attempts of 15 yards, and this came from starting the game with -4 yards after three carries.

The difference between this year and last seems to be a combination of Pittsburgh’s confidence in him being able to create big plays, but also the heavy importance of how the offensive line helps him by creating spaces for him to drive into.

The first clip is a true example of that, if it wasn’t for the block and the space for Abanikanda to drive into, it wouldn’t turn into an 80-yard touchdown.

The reliance on Abanikanda can be seen just by the sheer amount of volume he now sees the ball. He had double-digit carries in games just six times entering this season, and 20+ carries just once.

Now six weeks into the season, Abanikanda has only seen single figures once, in the opening game against West Virginia. Since then, he has broken the 100+ yard mark four times in five games, his least productive outing coming against Georgia Tech.

The last two home games, either side of the Georgia Tech matchup, have really put him on the map. Abanikanda has rushed for 10 touchdowns, and 497 yards, averaging just over nine yards a carry. His explosiveness, his ability to maintain speed over larger distances and his control over the football has been a real pleasure to watch. This has enabled Pittsburgh to turn into a run-first offense, and with Kedon Slovis yet to really kick on, it has lifted the pressure on him following the loss of Kenny Pickett to the NFL.

Has Abanikanda put himself into the NFL draft mix?

With his performances this season, there is no reason why Abanikanda can’t be a high pick in the 2023 Draft, but there needs to be consistency between now and the end of the season for him to be even considered for the mix.

The 2021 season, dominated by Kenny Pickett, didn’t allow him to really stand out as a big threat on the ground, but now in a team that relies on running, Abanikanda has been given a platform to showcase his abilities.

So, will he need to be in a team that focuses more on the ground attack rather than the air attack? Possibly. We are yet to see what Abanikanda can do as a receiving threat due to the issues Slovis has faced so far this year, but that’s something that could be improved upon as Slovis finds his feet a bit more. But there are plenty of offenses in the NFL whose running threats are much greater than their receiving threats so he could be a good fit to a handful of teams.

In Conclusion…

Abanikanda is an exciting running back who possesses the explosiveness, speed and dominance on the ground to be a top-level running back. However, the main concerns will be his consistency and whether he can put up the numbers against the better teams in College Football.

Pitt has a bye week this week but three games against Louisville, UNC and Syracuse could be the real indicator of what he has to offer and if he can produce against the better teams. There are some big divisional matches coming up, and if Abanikanda can produce then Pittsburgh has a great chance of being ACC Champions.

By Jake Tweedie – @ACCAnalysis1

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F10Y BETTING; WEEK 6 BEST BETS

It is already Week 6 of the NFL season, and Adam and the boys are back with their best bets of Week 6. The bye weeks have started with 4 teams missing this week; The Lions, Texans, Titans and Raiders all having an early rest.

It’s safe to say things haven’t quite gone to plan so far this season, especially for Adam who has yet to win a “best bet” so far… Not good at all, the Steelers getting smashed last week giving Mike Tomlin his largest defeat as head coach and providing the largest margin of loss for the Steelers since 1989, meaning another loss for our host.

The Dolphins were done in as soon as Teddy Bridgewater went down on the first drive, tough luck on that one. But the Lions selection didn’t go to plan as they were shut out by the Patriots.

Fortunately, we have Liam here and he moved to 4-1 on the season with the Titans winning against the Commanders, to cover the 1.5 spread although that came down to a last-minute interception.

We’re back again for more punishment as they make their Week 6 picks, and you can listen to our thoughts on this weeks pod – https://spotifyanchor-web.app.link/e/PjDy6MFn6tb

BENGALS – 1.5 @ SAINTS

Liam (@_LiamHorsley)

A return to Louisiana and the Caesars Superdome for Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase after their success in this stadium for LSU, it hasn’t clicked so far this season for them but we think it’ll only take one big game for things to click once more. Tee Higgins missed practice again with his ankle injury which is worrying for the team, but they ran well last week and should be able to get the ball moving against a Saints defense which hasn’t impressed as expected so far.

The Saints could be without Jarvis Landry and Michael Thomas who didn’t practice this week either, but are hopefully Chris Olave will play, if not then it may well be another healthy dose of Taysom Hill. It is an Andy Dalton revenge game but the Bengals defense is yet to allow a TD in the second half this season.

Everything is leaning the Bengals way and with the spread under a field goal we’re taking them to win here.

VIKINGS -3 @ DOLPHINS

Adam (@TouchdownTips)

This isn’t the most in-depth handicap in the world, but it’s pretty simple really. The Dolphins are coming into this one probably starting their third-choice QB in Skylar Thompson as they seem to be saying that even if Teddy Bridgewater does clear concussion protocol, which isn’t a guarantee anymore, he’ll be the backup behind the kid.

Seems like a weird move to me, but here we are… they actually moved the ball fairly well and the final score against the Jets was a little misleading.

The Vikings are a fine team and Justin Jefferson should put up big numbers again against a defense with Xavien Howard not at 100%. It’s a 1pm kick-off so we know that Kirk Cousins will be fine and while their defense isn’t anything special it can generate pressure and get to the QB.

BROWNS -2.5 VS. PATRIOTS

Callum (@CallumJDSquire)

The Browns are the better team at most positions in this one, Jacoby Brissett is better than Bailey Zappe, the Browns pass rush is better, the Browns running back(s) are better, pass-catching is even better, and that’s saying something.

They don’t have the best coach in this one, but the talent on the pitch should be enough for them to beat this incarnation of the Patriots.

PACKERS -6.5 VS JETS

Jack (@JackT_95)

The Jets are over-rated coming off a couple of wins against the Steelers with a rookie QB and the Dolphins with a 3rd string QB. They’ve been fine, but they are still who they are and that’s a below-average team on the whole, although Sauce Gardner is proving to be worth his lefty draft position.

The Packers somehow gave up a big lead in London against the Giants last week and will be looking to bounce back now on home turf at Lambeau. Can you really imagine the mighty Packers losing to both New York teams in consecutive weeks? We can’t see Aaron Rodgers letting that happen.

Packers win and cover less than a TD.