The NFL is over too quickly! We’re already going to hit the quarter point of the season as we go through Week 5, and Adam and the boys are back this week with their favourite bets for the slate.
The host of the pod, the self-proclaimed TouchdownTips is still looking for a win on the season after the Browns did all they could to lose to the Falcons last week while the record for the group as a whole needs some improvement sitting at around 0.500 on the year. Let’s hope for a bit of luck this week and a 4-0 Sunday.
As you all probably know, I am a Bengals fan, so picking this line as my best bet for the week was a tough one, but I just had to. The Steelers biggest underdog the Steelers have been in the last 30 years is 13.5 in 1992… This game was up at 14.5 when recorded the pod, I had to take them getting over two TDs against anyone.
Sure they have a rookie QB who will threw up some interceptions as his name suggests, but he’ll get big plays out of Pickens and Diontae Johnson, and maybe even Chase Claypool.
The Bills played the Ravens last week and have the Chiefs next week, they won’t be too bothered about running up the score against these chumps.
I had to take the Steelers +14.5
Dolphins -3 (3.5) @ Jets
Jack (@JackT_95)
Sure, he’s a Dolphins fan, and it might be a homer pick, but we fully agree that the Dolphins are the correct side at the Metlife on Sunday.
The Jets welcomed back Zach Wilson who performed adequately in what looked like a loss before leading a game-winning drive against the hapless Steelers last week. They’ll be OK, but they’re probably over-rated at the moment after a c couple of miracle wins against AFC North opposition.
The Dolphins are idiots for how they dealt with Tua, but the downgrade to Teddy Bridgewater isn’t significant and he’ll hit those deep shots to Hill and Waddle while their run game should be fine led by Mostert.
The Dolphins blitz a lot and Wilson doesn’t deal with that at all.
Lions +4.5 @ Patriots
Callum (@CallumJDSquire)
Callum loves the Lions, probably more than his Dolphins team in fairness, he’s always on them, and he’s right to do so as the Lions seem to constantly cover the spread. This is the first game they’ve played outside this year but they’re going up against a 4th round rookie QB making his first start with barely any weapons in the passing game.
The run game for the Patriots has been very effective and they’ll put up points but the protection gifted to Jared Goff has him and the offense purring and they’ll be able to match and probably surpass any scoring the Patriots get in this one.
Titans -1.5 @ Commanders
Liam (_LiamHorsley)
Worryingly I like all of our picks this week as this was another line I was interested in. Sure the Titans aren’t exciting or pulling up any trees this year but the Commanders are terrible and even with the return of Brian Robinson from being shot in the pre-season we can’t see them putting up enough points to win against anyone, let alone one of the better coached teams in the league.
Derrick Henry as always will be the focus of the Titans attack and they’ve been getting him increasingly involved in the passing game which makes sense to let him get up a head of steam with the ball in his hands. They did lose Treylon Burks but Tannehill moves the ball well around his team and should be able to do it against a poor Commanders team.
Whether you’re a fan of the NFL as a whole or more of a Fantasy Football aficionado, chances are you want to see the stars of the game perform well. You want the best players to fill the highlight reel week after week but inevitably, sometimes, they struggle.
In contrast to my last article about players who are exceeding our expectations, let’s take a look at a few players who are currently having some problems early doors and how they might get out of their funks.
Matthew Stafford
The issue: Throwing interceptions
Following a 24-9 loss to the San Francisco 49ers on MNF, the Los Angeles Rams are 2-2 through four games for the first time in the Sean McVay era. Sure, the Niners D looked pretty stout but the Rams offense was also culpable. All three of their red zone trips resulted in nothing more than field goals and inside the 20, Matt Stafford went 1-of-6 for -2 yards. Yikes! He was also sacked seven times and threw a game-sealing pick-six. All “self-inflicted wounds” according to McVay.
The costly interception means that Stafford now has a league-high six, after throwing five in the first two weeks against the Bills (3) and the Falcons (2). In addition, after throwing a scoring pass in every game last season, up to and including the Super Bowl, Stafford has played back-to-back TD-free games for the first time since 2016. Not good numbers for a guy who signed a four-year, $160 million extension this offseason.
In Stafford’s defence, his O-line is populated with back-ups and stand-ins. There’s nothing happening in the run game (Cam Akers had 13 yards in eight rushes on Monday). And his wideouts aren’t getting open (Allen Robinson had two catches from six targets for a paltry seven yards in the same game). All this means he’s trying to force-feed Cooper Kupp. Kupp had 14 catches on 19 targets for 122 yards on MNF; no other WR had more than two catches. But telegraphing everything to his WR1, even when double-teamed in tight windows, means opposing defensive backs are filling their boots.
McVay and Stafford need to put their heads together to sort out this misfiring offense. I think it starts with bringing Akers, Robinson et al into the game more, rather than relying on Kupp. Stafford is a good QB on a team chock-full of stars so they just need to let the others shine, starting against Dallas on Sunday.
Melvin Gordon III
The issue: Fumbling the ball
Gordon’s bout of butter-fingers has hit the headlines this year. He’s had four fumbles in five games so far this season and, with a drop in the final game of last year, his current streak is five drops in six. And it’s costing his team points.
His first drop of the current campaign came in Denver’s opener against Seattle, when he tried to stretch to convert a 4th-and-1 on the 1-yard line. The turnover was converted into a TD by the Seahawks, in a game they won by a point. He then had two fumbles in a loss to the 49ers in Week 3 and his most recent misdemeanour was on Sunday against the Raiders, which Amik Robertson took 68 yards back to the house.
Gordon has actually had an issue with ball security for a while now. He had three fumbles last year, and four in each of the two seasons prior to that, so that’s 15 in three-and-a-bit seasons.
Some of this is just down to bad luck. However you protect the ball, it will pop out or get punched away from time to time. The trick now is to put this latest run of the jitters behind him, and play with confidence and freedom. With Javonte Williams going down with a season-ending knee injury last week, the pressure to put it right is on but at east Gordon posted an error-free game against Indy on Monday night.
Justin Fields
The issue: Not throwing the ball
It seems that Justin Fields, the Chicago Bears QB, either doesn’t like throwing passes or his coaches don’t trust him to. OK, he’s a young player in a new offense but among QBs who have played four games, he has the fewest pass attempts (67), completions (34) and touchdown passes (2). He hasn’t thrown for a TD since Week 1 and his passing yards per game have yet to exceed 174; they even dipped as low as 70. And he’s only completed more than 50% of his passes once, leaving him with the worst completion percentage among all starting QBs in the league (50.7%).
The Bears’ 23-20 win over the Houston Texans on Sunday exemplifies his struggles perfectly. Fields completed eight of 17 passes (47.1%) for 106 yards, took five sacks and threw two interceptions. He himself said he “played like trash” afterwards.
Fields could certainly extend plays while at Ohio State. He also takes his time to throw with this Bears team too but with NFL defences hunting him down, hanging on to the ball too long isn’t a good idea. It would certainly help if he had a better supporting cast than just Darnell Mooney. Until that changes, or Fields finds a way to get the ball out quicker, Chicago will continue to lean on the ground game in general, and Khalil Herbert in particular. Let’s see if anything changes in their divisional match at Minnesota in Week 5.
Joe Mixon
The issue: Rushing inefficiency
Last year, even behind a “sub-optimal” O-line, the Cincinnati RB rushed for 13 touchdowns and racked up 1,205 yards (4.1 average), the third-highest across the NFL. This year, with a revamped line, the offense as a whole has started slowly but is beginning to pick up. But something’s still not right with the running game.
Mixon is just not finding the lanes. So far this year, he’s had 82 rushing attempts – second only to Saquon Barkley’s 84 – so his 224 yards (21st in the league) is purely down to volume. According to The Athletic’s Paul Dehner Jr., his average of 2.7 yards per carry places him dead last out of 35 eligible RBs with a mininum of 35 carries, almost half a yard behind the second worst (Austin Ekeler, 3.1). He’s also 35th out of 35 in a host of other metrics including rush success percentage, yards after contact per attempt, PFF run grade and rushing expected points added. However you measure it, it isn’t great.
Sure, the run blocking hasn’t been great yet but Mixon isn’t making the most of what is available to him either. He’s not running downhill, but instead tries to skirt around the edges. He’s always stutter-stepping and cutting rather than just getting his head down and powering forward. And he gets hit behind the line of scrimmage with alarming regularity. Many fans have noticed “tells” in his pre-snap stance as to whether he’s going to be handed the ball or not, and it sounds like opposition defenses know them too.
Mixon, 26, isn’t running out of tread quite yet, and he’s had peaks and troughs in rushing efficiency throughout his pro career. I think his current struggles are more about operating behind an O-line with four new players who are taking time to gel. Once they do, they should create the channels for #28 to exploit, but let’s face it, we’re into Week 5… so it’s high time. To expedite this process, Mixon called a meeting with his blockers this week, to work on their chemistry and find ways to get back to last season’s form. I’m just not holding my breath this week: the Bengals will probably lean on their aerial attack on Sunday night at the Baltimore Ravens, who have the worst passing defense in the league (giving up 315 passing yards a game).
Chase Claypool
The issue: The scheme
Pittsburgh’s Chase Claypool is a 6’4” vertical threat but through four games, he’s had just 11 receptions for 79 yards. His 7.2 yards per catch is the equal-lowest of all WRs playing four games (tied with Tampa Bay’s Russell Gage), and that figure wasn’t helped by a Week 4 performance in which he had no targets at all. Pretty poor all round.
To be fair to Claypool (and maybe a bit harsh on his QB), Mitch Trubisky has been the signal caller for three-and-a-half of those games. But Claypool isn’t the sort who does his damage near the line of scrimmage, the environment where Trubisky likes to operate. The guy is more of a downfield threat.
I suspect Claypool’s numbers will start to improve now that Kenny Pickett is under center. From what we saw of the rookie QB during preseason and in half a game last week, we should start to see less dink-and-dunk football, and a bit more explosive, down-the-field offense from the Steelers. Pickett has toughness and timing, and it feels like he could have the necessary leadership qualities to rally his troops, so having the newbie slinging the rock should play (literally) right into Claypool’s hands. They may be playing catch-up for much of the time against the Bills this weekend so let’s see if Chase is on the case.
Welcome back to our weekly Player to Watch space here at Full 10 Yards, this week I am digging into one of the more exciting wide receivers in college football, AT Perry of Wake Forest.
However, before moving on to discuss Perry, I would like to address that with Blake Corum’s 133 yards and a touchdown against Iowa last week, it’s a win for this particular writer as we take one back from the kiss of death that we seem to be putting on the players covered.
Enough of my small victories, I have a Biletnikoff semi-finalist wide receiver to dig into!
Let’s kick off in the usual manner; let’s talk about who Perry is…
Atorian “AT” Perry is a 6’5, 205lb receiver out of Lake Worth Florida, coming out of high school he was a three star recruit. Perry was a tri-sport high school athlete, turning out of the school’s basketball and track teams, even winning the county long jump championship, alongside his ventures for the football programme.
On the football field, Perry was a captain for the Lake Worth Cobras, as a wide receiver and defensive back. He caught touchdowns, he led his team to a 10-0 record in his Junior season and he also has athletic bloodlines from a Mother who ran track at Arizona State. However, the offers from Power-5 schools were not forthcoming.
Lost in the sea of footballing talent that in the state of Florida, Perry wasn’t blessed with offers from big schools. Prior to enrolling at Wake Forest, the only Power-5 offer he had on the table from Iowa State, a world away from Florida and the South as a whole. Perry was originally slated to attend the University of Alabama-Birmingham and be a Blazer, before de-committing and signing on with the Demon Deacons and heading for Winston-Salem.
Now the only thing that is blazing, are his routes and catches.
And with that, let’s head to the film…
In this initial clip, I want to show you a whole host of positives that I see often throughout Perry’s tape.
Let’s go to the Florida State game from 2021, what I want to show you here is that Perry can be a deep threat with good straight line speed, I want to show you great ball tracking ability and also a little bit of a nuanced release off the line of scrimmage.
From the beginning of the play then… we can see that the corner guarding him is every aligned ever-so-slightly to the outside, so Perry’s initial step jabs to the outside and the corner widens out to mirror his movement – Just what Perry wanted. This allowed him to gobble up that 2 yard cushion and push downfield, and by the time Sam Hartman is throwing, Perry is two yards beyond his man. All he had to do is ensure that he caught the football and it’s 6 points, and it duly was.
I feel like the corner was expecting help over the top, hence why he didn’t attempt to jam Perry at the line. The safety gained no depth to provide any help over the top, so this is either poor execution or a bad play design, as it allowed Wake Forest’s best receiver easy access to the deep portion of the field and an easy score.
Next up and sticking with the Florida State game – Another great release but this time we are seeing separation in the intermediate portion of the field.
Again, we see Perry use his feet well and manipulate a defender with his release. He jabs outside to get the defender to open his hips just a touch, as he knows that he wants to get inside to run his dig (or basic) route.
Another super impressive aspect of this play is that he can work through contact throughout his route, leaning into his man and that despite being 6’5, he can sink his hips and make a sharp cut on his route. This cut gives him the separation that he needs to make the catch unchallenged over the middle of the field.
You will also see on the endzone view on the All-22 here that he can make a solid catch with his hands extended away from his body. This is the sort of chain-moving grab over the middle that makes bigger receivers such a comfort blanket for quarterbacks.
Here’s more evidence of his ability to manipulate defenders with his work off the line… This one was against Army last year in the red zone.
The ball doesn’t come his way here but I love the way he creates space inside by chopping his feet and stuttering at the line. The play wasn’t designed to go to him looking at his body language around the time of the throw (I feel he was in place to create a rub for his team mate) but had Perry known the ball was coming his way on a slightly different play, that’s a touchdown in the middle of the endzone.
However, and there’s always a however in these articles, one thing that I have seen a number of through three games (Florida State, Army, Clemson all 2021), is drops.
Concentration drops and not having hands in the proper technique, more often than not over the short and intermediate areas.
This is a money down; 3rd down with the score tied at 21. It’s a first down if he catches it too and you can see the disappointment in his body language as soon as he sees that one go through his hands. In the NFL, a tipped ball like that can be a turnover. Perry has to tighten up this aspect of his game.
Last clip here and it’s something I would love to see more of from Perry but this one shows that he’s got it in his locker and that run-after-catch ability.
This one from the Clemson game last year. Backup QB, Michael Kern is in the game for Sam Hartman here and because of that I love that Perry runs the curl route here and works his way back to the QB, showing him his number and giving him a big target to throw at.
I’ve talked about releases already, but this is another great example – Guarded by Andrew Booth Jr., now of the Minnesota Vikings, he immediately threatens deep and gets Booth on his heels and into recovery mode. Perry sells his route superbly and it means that he gains separation by using the defender’s momentum against him as he turns back towards the QB to make the catch.
The safety misses the tackle due to Perry being able to turn quickly inside and now there’s nothing but green grass ahead of him and he takes advantage with a huge gain after the catch. Had it not been for the incredible recovery speed of safety, Andrew Mukuba (#1), Perry would have scored.
We can see that Perry is Sam Hartman’s best friend on the football field, so how will these two link up this weekend against Army?
First off, now that I have shown you a taster of the film from this kinda-kooky, slow mesh offense, I want to give a shout out to my guy Simon Carroll over at The Touchdown who wrote up a fantastic piece on the Wake Forest slow mesh offense – Which you can read HERE. So if you want to know more about the bigger picture, hop over to that piece once you’re done here. Here is a clip of it working perfectly against Army last year…
Defenders get caught with their eyes in the backfield waiting to see which way the mesh goes and it’s a game of who blinks first. All the while, receivers like Perry are tearing down the field past DBs and calling for the deep shots! When it works, it’s fantastic.
Last year, in the game against Army, Perry had 6 catches for 146 yards and a score. So considering that he was gaining over 24 yards a grab last year, it’ll be interesting to see how Army game plans for a player who hurt them so much last year.
I feel like Army has two defenses – Either allow Andre Carter to absolutely tee off on every snap from his EDGE position and pray that he sacks Sam Hartman enough times to slow the play down. Or double cover Perry with safety help over the top at all times with the corner who’s guarding Perry playing a tight trail technique behind to dare Hartman to hit the tough throw, or beat them by using the other receivers almost exclusively.
If not, due to the talent differential, I’d expect Perry to carve up the Golden Knight’s defense once again.
Can we expect to see Perry playing on Sundays?
I would be shocked if we didn’t see Perry drafted within the first couple of rounds of the NFL Draft.
I think he possesses a typical X-receiver’s frame, with his height and speed to make catches that is not too dissimilar to someone like Mike Williams, although the evidence of spectacular body control isn’t on film and is what makes someone like Williams special. He can run routes off the vertical stem and at 6’5, he’s always going to be someone who will be a threat in the red zone with jump balls and ability to box out smaller defenders.
Perry is a player who teams value because the height and speed combination that he possesses are unteachable gifts. He can access the deep portion of the field and create space for his team mates underneath. We’ve seen in the clips above that every team he faces respects the fact that he can run by them and score from anywhere, and that isn’t going to change in the NFL.
Perry is a big-bodied X receiver with the skillset that NFL teams crave, however, he has to clean up his technique and I would also love to see him diversify his route tree as well.
Perry only works vertically, which whilst that plays to his strengths, it limits his effectiveness and can mean that he’s taken out of the game with bracket coverages.
I feel like there’s enough agility to work in some double moves and enough physicality to give him some slants over the middle – With a 6’5 body and long arms, there’s no corner in the league with the length to stop him cashing in on easy money in the short areas, if he can smarten up his hands in clutch moments.
I feel like Perry has all the ingredients to be a player who can be successful in the NFL from day one. He has a good understanding of releases, and manipulating defenders, but he’s not a master of these things. He can be successful immediately by doing the things he does now, but he has a ceiling when he masters certain skills. I feel that he absolutely could be moulded into a more rounded receiver who can be effective at all three levels and in the red zone.
He’ll continue to hone his craft and be super productive for Wake Forest and continue to forge his path to the NFL and he’s not only a player to watch this week but also for the rest of the year.
By Lee Wakefield – Follow Lee on Twitter @wakefield90
Read the rest of the Player to Watch articles here.
This was the game of the week for me, well on paper at least, as the two top dogs in the ACC, both top ten ranked, duked it out in a night game. The reality was that Clemson should have won by more than the ten points they did, and are now favourites to sweep conference play and get a good shot at the College Football Play-off.
We’ll start the notes with the winning Tigers…
Clemson
I got a decent look at Clemson last week against Wake Forest, and the offense in that game looked so much better than it did for much of last season. This game was a bit of a mixed bag, but this was also the best defense that the Tigers had faced so far this season, so a regression from last week’s big output was expected.
Quarterback DJ Uiagalelei looked a different beast last week against the Demon Deacons throwing for 371 yards and five touchdowns, but he was back to a more conservative game plan against the Wolfpack, where the emphasis was on ball control rather than splash plays.
In back to back games against Top 15 opponents DJ Uiagalelei's stats are as follows:
47-71 for 580 yards with 6 TDs to 0 INTs, 85.1 QBR 125 rushing yards with 2 TDs pic.twitter.com/aJ6xBqOlPY
He did go deep a couple of times but he overthrew both passes and his overall accuracy is still a bit of a worry for me. Clemson have used him more to run the ball this year, and he does a nice job of getting what he can on the ground, but as a pure passer there are still many questions for me that need answering.
Obviously he is playing much better than last year, but I think he’s quite a way down the quarterback draft list still, although with that size and arm strength there will be plenty of intrigue if he does throw his name into the 2023 draft.
Clemson have churned out some exceptional wide receivers over the last decade, but this current bunch are not living up to that standard. The Tigers have instead turned to a more run based attack, utilising the tight ends in the passing game, and they have a guy who may make it to the next level.
Davis Allen is a big target (6’6 250) with decent hands who looked good last week snaring two touchdowns and was a valuable outlet for his quarterback in this game too.
He has functional strength as a blocker, but he certainly won’t wow anyone in that department, although he does enough to survive. If Allen tests well he should certainly find himself in that mid day three range, and should make an NFL roster.
Defensively, Clemson have three stud players, all of whom could be first round picks, but one of them Defensive Tackle Bryan Bresee was out of this game, so all eyes were on the other two…
I really like EDGE Myles Murphy – Who was highly rated in our summer scouting series.
He is bigger than most of the EDGE’s in this potential draft class, so he doesn’t possess the bend and dip of those smaller guys, but he does win with strength and quick hands consistently. This was an odd game for him, as statistically he had 1.5 sacks and a couple of pressures, but he was nullified for stretches of the game which doesn’t happen very often.
There was one pressure he went straight through the left tackle with power, and although not the level of athlete of some of the top guys, he can still win around the edge on the outside shoulder of the tackles. He is the same size (6’5 275) as last year’s number one pick Travon Walker but won’t test as well as he did, but he should be a first round lock, and possibly as high as the top ten.
There is plenty of hype surrounding linebacker Trenton Simpson, but I’m not quite as high on him as the consensus seems to be.
There is no doubting his athletic ability as he glides around the field effortlessly, but for me there seems to be questions with instincts and that’s a concern for someone in the middle of the defense.
He has moved into a more traditional off-ball Linebacker position this season, as he was more out in the slot in 2021, so perhaps that explains some instinctual issues, but this will be his NFL position, so he needs to look better than this for the rest of the season to maintain first round status.
The old position Simpson moved from has been taken by true sophomore Barrett Carter, and this game was very much a coming out party for him. He has all the athletic ability that Simpson does, and although he doesn’t have the same size, he is a fearless player who understands his role perfectly. We could be talking about Carter in the same way we did about Simpson next season when he’ll be draft eligible.
NC State
This Wolfpack offense struggled to move the ball against Clemson, especially in the second half, as the offensive line couldn’t control the line of scrimmage. I like quarterback Devin Leary, but this game showcased his limitations.
When he has time, as he did in the first half, he can move this offense down the field nicely. What he has trouble with is coming off script and producing under pressure, which is how the second half went. I’m not sure there’s a lot of upside to him, but you can see him carving out a nice NFL career in a back-up capacity.
Leary’s most reliable target, wide receiver Thayer Thomas certainly appears to have an NFL future. Everyone needs one of these crafty slot receivers that can always get open and have safe hands, and Thomas is an excellent example of one. Not the biggest or the fastest, but he drops virtually nothing and is a consistent chain-mover. Call him a poor man’s Hunter Renfrow, who has an outside chance of going late in the draft.
Thayer Thomas came to NC State as a walk on. He now has more career receiving touchdowns in an NC State uniform than anyone not named Torry Holt. Pretty cool career arc. pic.twitter.com/peKz7fWh9P
Defensively NC State were very impressive at times, despite giving up 30 points. The three man defensive line has a thankless task at times, just occupying spaces and eating blockers, but these guys are excellent at doing it.
I’ve been a big defensive tackle Cory Durden fan for a long time, even back to his Florida State days he stood out to me. Now he is used exclusively as a nose tackle in their odd front, so he sees plenty of double teams and has to fight on every snap to keep lineman off him and keep in on the play.
Durden has a great get off and arm over move, which when timed right will split the double teams and get him into the backfield. His role will never offer him the chance to be statistically productive, but his value can’t be overlooked, and some NFL odd front teams should spend a day three pick on him for sure.
The benefactors of the big guys up front are the linebackers, who can exploit the chaos and make the plays.
NC State has three good ones, all of whom could end up being drafted, but for me the highlight performer from this group against Clemson was Isaiah Moore.
He is a fifth year player who really burst onto the scene as a Freshman in 2018, but has never really kicked on. Injuries have played their part, and he missed half of last season with one, so he needed a good final year to get him back on the NFL radar, and this game tape should do that.
In this game, Moore was always around the ball and quick to react to plays developing in front of him. He is a good form tackler who wraps up nicely making sure the ball carrier gets down. Now I doubt he’ll test that well, and with the injury history to consider too he’ll be a late round pick at best, but these types of guys are always hanging around on NFL rosters.
I do love a hard hitting, play making safety, and Tanner Ingle certainly fits that bill. He flies around the field hitting anything that moves and will sacrifice his body to get in on a tackle. He is undersized for this role (5’10 185) and you’d expect that his body wouldn’t hold up in this role in the NFL, but I’m not backing against this guy as he has a bit of Tyrann Mathieu about him, and he turned out alright didn’t he?
By Keith Lucken – Follow Keith on Twitter @lordlucken
Johnny “Money” Manziel, Jameis Winston, Drake Maye. These are the names we see when looking at freshmen who have won the Heisman Trophy.
After five weeks of the college football season, the Heisman race is shaping up to be a good one. Front runners C.J. Stroud and Bryce Young have come out firing on all cylinders this season. Yet after an injury to his throwing arm, Bryce Young’s odds have decreased a bit. Players like Caleb Williams and Hendon Hooker are looking to keep this a close one, but do not count out UNC quarterback Drake Maye.
Maye, the redshirt freshman who transferred from Alabama, is on pace for a record setting season with the Tar Heels. As it stands today, the quarterback has 22 total touchdowns on the year, currently leading all of college football. He has shown plenty of success in the pocket this season and flashes plenty of ability to escape and create issues on the ground. Making him a nightmare to game plan against.
After five games in 2022, Maye ranks sixth in passing yards and has an impressive 69.7% completion percentage. The Tar Heel freshman has only thrown a single interception all season, and has only turned the ball over two other times on the ground, proving he has the ability to hold onto the ball.
So why should he be in the Heisman conversation?
Maye has led this UNC team to a 4-1 record so far, and has done so with a far from elite defense. This is the same defensive unit that allowed App St. to score 61 points against them. So unlike Stroud and Young, Maye is producing results without a huge performance from his colleagues on the other side of the ball. Having to air it out just to keep this team afloat, quite literally carrying the offense on his back. The quarterback has been the teams leading rusher already twice this season and is second on the team in rushing yards with 255.
There is always a lot of talk about a “Heisman Moment” and Drake Maye has had an assortment of clutch throws that could fall into this, with his most impressive coming from the shootout with App St. Before the half Maye threaded the needle on a 15 yard dime to sophomore tight end Bryson Nesbit to give UNC the lead before half. While down 45-26 against Notre Dame, Maye kept the team alive on a 4th and 21 when he hit wide receiver Antoine Green for an 80 yard touchdown. A ball which he released as getting hit, making the play all the more impressive.
If Maye is to pull off this impressive feat, it would make him the youngest Heisman winner ever, surpassing Lamar Jackson who currently holds the record at 19 years and 337 days. Maye just turned 19 on August 30th of this year. This would also make him just the third freshman to ever win the prestigious award. North Carolina has found a young star who could terrorize the ACC for years to come, let us hope this career is not wasted by Mack Brown and his sloppy defenses in the same vein as his predecessor, “Heisman Howell.”
The New Orleans Saints are now 1-3 and are losing a heartbreaker 28-25 to the Minnesota Vikings at Spurs Stadium in London. Sadly, the Saints are what their record says. A losing team, with far too much talent to be in the position their in. Penalties, turnovers and a last-second double doink missed field goal. led to defeat today and staring at despair.
Let’s breakdown what went wrong for the Saints yesterday.
I’m trying a different recap style, let me know which you prefer—this or my usual quarter by quarter.
Let’s start with the Saints’ offense, overall, I thought the Dalton-led unit was an improvement over the four back fractures Jameis Winston experience. Dalton still struggled to start the game with 2 quick three-and-outs.
Crucially though, he capitalised on the Vikings turnover (shout out Honey Badger with the pick) and marched the Saints down the field on a type of drive the Saints have been missing and sustained a 12-play 60-yard touchdown drive. With a crucial pass too early in the drive to Chris Olave on third and eight. This was a play the offense hadn’t been making.
Sadly, Dalton couldn’t fix the offensive penalties or the fumbles. The Saints offense had two offensive penalties on the first drive one, a false start which turned a third and six into a third and 11. The worse penalty came the play after, the Saints managed to convert the third and 11 with a very well-executed screen to Mark Ingram. It was called back by an ineligible man downfield penalty on Cesar Ruiz.
Instead of first and ten at the Saints 35, it ended up third and 16 at the Saints 19. Subsequently, the Saints had to punt.
The aforementioned fumble, now that the game has finished, was one of the day’s biggest plays, which is a shame for Dalton if he did play very well overall.
The Saints got the ball back with just over a minute to go in the first half down 10-7 after a Vikings field goal. With two timeouts and a chance to get some points on the board before the half, the Saints also go the ball first to start the second half.
The first play, Dalton is sacked and stripped by Dalvin Tomlinson. Giving the Vikings the ball on the Saints’ 20, the defense held well but the Vikings still kicked a field goal. This was essentially a gifted three points. Now the Saints enter halftime down 13-7 instead of maybe 10-10 at worst 10-7.
The second half was a totally different story for the Saints offense. We finally saw some sustained offense. They went punt, touchdown, touchdown, field before the missed field goal to end the game (more on that shortly)
The touchdown drives were well put together and none of the scoring drives were less than eight plays. This shows the ability to make consistent plays.
For example, on the Saints first touchdown drive Dalton hit Marquez Callaway (who played well today) for a five-yard pass on fourth and four to extend the drive, which as mentioned ended in a TD. A bulldozing one-yard TD run by Latavius Murray.
Murray had a great first game back with the Saints. He provided a spark in the second half, HC Dennis Allen even commented on it in his post-game press conference. He ended with 11 carries for 57 yards and a TD and looked like the best RB on the field today.
The o-line seemed to hold up well (hard to tell fully watching in the stadium) only gave up two sacks and the Dalton didn’t look under pressure too much. Could be wrong on a watch back.
Some positive quick hitters:
Chris Olave, led the team in catches and yards again (four catches for 67 yards and a TD) and looked open all day.
Marquez Callaway, he made some big plays today. Previously mentioned 4th down catch and later on that drive a huge 33-yard contested catch down the left sideline to set the Saints up for TD.
Taysom Hill, sprinkled in the QB power is still really good especially inside the five, seems almost automatic.
Saints o-line- from what I could it looked like they played very well, with plenty of open holes in the run game and Dalton didn’t look to be under a huge amount of pressure.
Saints Defense
One of my key matchups for this game was stopping Dalvin Cook and the running game. The Saints Definitely did that today. Apart from a rogue 14-yard rush in the fourth quarter, the Saints kept Cook bottled up for 3.8 yards per carry on 20 attempts.
The d-line looked very stout against the run and much better rushing the passer, d-lineman Kentavius Street (1), Cam Jordan (0.5) and Marcus Davenport (0.5) all had sacks and multiple QB hits. LB’s Demario Davis and Pete Werner looked great again, especially against the run. Davis also had a sack.
Unfortunately, what I thought shutting down the run game would stop, didn’t.
Play-action passing, I’m interested to see what his final stats were from play-action passes but certainly from the stadium, it seemed like Cousins shredded the defense from it.
Adam Thielen dominated early, he had five of his seven catches in the first half.
Justin Jefferson dominated late, with six of his ten catches coming in the second half. Two of those were huge plays, one for 41 yards, two Saints players did run into each other leaving him wide open but either way, the play was made, this set up a Vikings field goal.
The second catch was a dagger, a 39-yard catch one on one Vs Lattimore. Which set the Vikings up for the field goal to go up 28-25 with only 24 seconds left. Jefferson definitely got the better of Lattimore in this matchup. He ended with ten catches for 147 yards seemed like all if not most were when Lattimore was in coverage.
(10 targets, 7 catches 93 yards, per PFF)
Some positive quick hitters:
Cam Jordan- Looked a terror today, with 0.5 sacks but had 3 other pressures per PFF
Pete Werner- again! he’s looking like an all-pro. PFF charted him as having 5 defensive stops in the run game.
Kentavius Street– had a sack today and another pressure. The interior d-line has been disappointing so far this season, if he can start to step up that would really help.
Special teams
Complete and utter shambles.
This Saints special teams unit is supposed to be one of the best in the league. Right now, they look like one of the worst. They allowed multiple good kick and punt returns in this game and have all season.
Deonte Harty fumbled a punt that would have given the Saints good starting position at their own 44. Down six. Instead, the Vikings were given great field position, which ended in another field goal.
Harty looks checked out since his contract talks in the summer didn’t go his way. He looks far away from his all-pro returning skills of previous years.
Finally, two special teams’ errors on the same drive again cost the Saints another three points. The Vikings had a good return out to their own 30. An unnecessary roughness penalty for a late hit out of bounds added 15 yards. The Saints’ defense held them to a quick three and out.
Then, the Saints feel for a fake punt, not just a fake punt but a fake punt that gained the Vikings 13 yards. Which again put the Vikings in field goal range.
This part of the game shouldn’t be a problem, the Saints prioritise players with special teams ability. They have the same coach that has led them to be one of the top units in the league over the last few years, so what gives? The players need to execute better of course but it has to come down to coaching as well sooner or later.
Some positive quick hitters:
Will ‘Big Nutz’ Lutz, made a 60-yarder in the clutch to tie the game. Then he nearly nailed a 61-yarder to send the game to overtime unfortunately it double-doinked.
Conclusion
Even with the penalties, the turnovers the general sloppiness. The Saints could have won this game. If they can out of their own way they can be a playoff team. They came that close today without QB1 (Jamies Winston) WR1 (Michael Thomas) and RB1 (Alvin Kamara).
The next game at home against Seattle is now a must-win. There’s no more margin for error.
Last point, the NFL have a severe officiating problem, the illegal use of hands to face penalty today on Tyrann Mathieu was awful, it kept the Vikings on the field on a drive they then scored a TD on. That definitely cost the Saints today.
Please let me know your feedback on this article and the others throughout the season, I’m always looking to improve and add things that people want to read about!
I want to try and create as much of a UK Saints community as possible, so follow me on Twitter @SaintsReportUK, for much more Saints content and discussion.
Who made this week’s Winner & Losers column (aka. The ‘Kansas & Losers’ column)… find out below.
Winners
UCLA
Let’s put some respect on UCLA’s name. At 5-0 with a couple of very eligible wins under their belt, the Bruins are looking good. The college football world had been aflame with praise for Washington in recent weeks, but the 40-32 scoreline makes this game seem closer than it was.
Dorian Thompson-Robinson is one of the great mysteries of the CFB world, he profiles as a very good QB but over the last few seasons he has been largely inconsistent. Now, midway through his fifth year with UCLA, are we seeing a player that could be jumping NFL draft boards? Through five games DTR has completed 74.3% of his passes for 11 touchdowns, with just one interception blotting the copy book.
The addition of Jake Bobo from Duke in the offseason appears to be paying dividends, with the 6’5” outside receiver putting up a huge six catch, 142 yards and two touchdown day on Friday evening. Combined with the ever-dangerous Zach Charbonnet, the Bruins have a nice one-two punch at receiver and running back.
Back to back games against Utah and Oregon might bring Chip Kelly’s men back to earth with a bang, but for now the programme has a feel good factor on the field.
🏁 These guys were done after this score with Washington so far back that despite their best efforts, they weren't able to mount a comeback#GoBruinspic.twitter.com/L0u7WI80Gk
Ole Miss are another team who moved to 5-0 with a win on Saturday, taking down Kentucky in order to do so. Despite all the offensive talent scattered across both rosters, the Rebels defense were largely to thank for the win.
Maurice Crum and D.J Durkin act as co-defensive coordinators in Oxford, and their approach proved effective, with Ole Miss putting up nine tackles for a loss, three sacks and multiple fumble recoveries. AJ Finley (S) and Austin Keys (LB) were at the heart of everything, as Will Levis came under scrutiny at QB for Kentucky.
Offensively, Jaxson Dart’s stat line won’t be setting off too much excitement amongst the Rebels’ fan base, but he’s slowly adjusting to life under Lane Kiffin. Games against Vanderbilt and Auburn should allow Kiffin and his team to extend their winning streak, before a more difficult section of the schedule hits.
It’s been a tough ride for Max Duggan as TCU’s starting quarterback. Along with the inconsistent performances has come a lot of scrutiny, and even a trip to the bench to start the 2022 season.
However, the fourth year signal caller is now stamping his authority on the starting job and an offense which has been purring away nicely to start the season. Against a solid Oklahoma side, Duggan put up video game numbers – 302 yards passing, three passing scores and 116 yards rushing plus a further two touchdowns on the ground. Impressive.
It’s clear that Duggan is thriving in his role as the offensive leader for the Horned Frogs, he looks calm in the pocket and is more than willing to share the ball around to any target that can get half a step on the defender covering him. Draft scouts would probably like to see Quentin Johnson padding the stat sheet in wins like this, but the future Sunday player did draw multiple pass interference calls in the first half.
An exciting matchup against 5-0 Kansas awaits TCU next week.
Losers
Virginia
After so much preseason hype around the weapons at their disposal, Virginia are really failing to live up to expectations so far in 2022. On Saturday they dropped to 2-3 with a defeat to a resurgent Duke who completely bullied the Cavaliers on the ground.
Brennan Armstrong had got the ‘dark horse’ label from some analysts ahead of the 2023 draft, but at present he’s struggling to stay upright behind an offensive line that is porous, to put it politely. The pressure Armstrong is facing is impacting his ability to find standout targets, Dontayvion Wicks and Keytaon Thompson – the latter being the only real bright spot for the Cavaliers so far this season.
As the rest of the ACC, including Duke, look to progress, Virginia seem to be going backwards. Tony Elliot was appointed as the new Head Coach this offseason, and he absolutely deserves some time to turn things around, but this season is already looking like a right off for the Cavaliers.
Wisconsin
24 carries of the football for the Badgers, two yards rushing in total. That stat says it all about Wisconsin’s performance against Illinois on Saturday as Bret Bielema enjoyed every minute of his team’s win against his former team.
Graham Mertz was sacked five times and threw two interceptions, as Wisconsin struggled to get anything going offensively. Braelon Allen has been incredibly efficient against stacked boxes all season long, but even he couldn’t get the ball moving against a resolute Fighting Illini defense.
On the flip side, the Badgers defense looked slow and struggled against the dynamic running style of Chase Brown. They also struggled to stop QB, Tommy Devito, punching the ball into the end zone three times in what was one of the most humbling defeats Wisconsin have suffered at home in recent years.
Ohio State’s Punter
This might be a British thing, although judging by Twitter’s reaction it probably isn’t. You’re up by 30 points against a clearly inferior team, it’s fourth down in your own half – just punt the ball away. It’s a nice respectful thing to do.
Instead, Jesse Mirco decided his time had come and he broke away for a 22 yard run. Only to be slammed to the floor as he ran out of bounds, cue some excellent handbags from the Buckeyes bench. We’re not condoning late hits at the Full10Yards, but…
Ohio State with the fake punt up 39 is real classy stuff. Way to show Rutgers who is boss! pic.twitter.com/c8zChPiREk
Despite it only being week four this is an incredibly pivotal game for the 2022-2023 New Orleans Saints. It might not quite be a must-win, but it’s certainly not far away. Let’s see where both teams are at heading into Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Sunday.
The Saints very easily could be 0-3 and staring down the barrel of a completely wasted season instead they sit 1-2 thanks to a miracle fourth-quarter comeback against Atlanta in week one. Only one game off the lead in the division.
Minnesota laid a beat down on the Packers in week one, then got a similar beatdown put on them in week two by the juggernaut Eagles. Week 3 brought a very similar comeback win against the Lions as the Saints did in week one against Atlanta.
Both teams could be on the other side of results giving them very different outlooks. Even though the Saints are 1-2 and the Vikings are 2-1 both teams feel like they could end up being very similar.
Offensively so far, the Saints have been a mess for 10 of 12 quarters this season. Jameis Winston having four fractures in his back certainly doesn’t help this. His mobility is clearly affected and that has cost the Saints so far, there have been times where he could have scrambled for first downs or to extend drives or moved to avoid rushes and he clearly hasn’t been able to do it.
Therefore, a QB change is coming to give Winston a chance to heal up. The ‘Red Rifle’ Andy Dalton took first-team reps all week in practice. Winston is listed as doubtful and all reports are, he’s unlikely to play on Sunday.
There’s no guarantee that Dalton will be better than Winston. However, there is reason to believe that he could operate the offense with more rhythm than Winston has been able to. Dalton has shown throughout his career that he’s willing and able to get through his progressions quickly and take the check down. Something this offense has been missing and needs at times to keep drives going.
This could finally be the game for Alvin Kamara to shine in the passing game and look for the Saints to use Kamara to attack Jordan Hicks in coverage.
The problems with offense do not just sit with Winston and his injured back and they are much different from problems faced this time last season. Last year the Saints were too injured and completely void of talent at the skill positions.
This year, it’s the opposite. They arguably have the best WR core in the league, especially with the emergence of rookie sensation Chris Olave and to date, no offensive starters have been lost for the season (touch wood) unlike this time last year. Olave and Jarvis Landry should find ways to win Vs this Vikings secondary.
Former all-pro Patrick Peterson has started the season well. The same can’t quite be said for his other starting CBs. Cameron Dantzler and slot corner Chandon Sullivan both have allowed more than a 100-passer rating when targeted so far this year.
I expect to see the Vikings test the Saints’ defense early and often with the Blitz.
The Vikings have star pass rushers Danielle Hunter and Za’Darius Smith. Expect to see Smith lined up inside on certain packages to add to the deception of the blitz. The Vikings also possess two LBs that are more than effective blitzing in Jordan Hicks and Eric Kendricks. The Saints will need to prove early that they have fixed their issues against the blitz otherwise despite not being a blitzing team the Vikings will keep coming early and often.
The offense doesn’t need to score 30 points per game as it has in the past to win games. With how this defense is playing right now 21-24 points with minimal turnovers feels like a formula to win more games than you lose.
Saints’ Defense Vs Vikings Offense
The Vikings have star pass rushers Danielle Hunter and Za’Darius Smith. Expect to see Smith lined up inside on certain packages to add to the deception. The Vikings also possess two LBs that are more than effective blitzing in Jordan Hicks and Eric Kendricks. The Saints will need to prove early that they have fixed their issues against the blitz otherwise despite not being a blitzing team the Vikings will keep coming early and often.
The Saints’ defense overall has played well but mainly because of their coverage. Marshon Lattimore is playing like the best CB in the league through three weeks. He will have another tough test this weekend against Vikings star Justin Jefferson (more on this matchup here https://www.full10yards.co.uk/analysing-three-key-matchups-to-watch-for-vikings-saints/ ). The Saints could have their training camp MVP back fully opposite Lattimore.
Paulson Adebo was worked back in last week against Carolina, it’s expected that he will see more snaps this week. That could be huge for New Orleans considering the WRs they are expected to face on Sunday.
The pass rush needs to improve and has struggled to get pressure without blitzing. The Saints need to start getting pressure just with the front four. Cam Jordan and Marcus Davenport need to get going. They have one sack between them so far.
Vitally the Saints need to do a better job stopping the run. With Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison on the other side, both have started the season well and are a massive threat to, a so far fragile and very uncharacteristically porous Saints rush defense (allowing 139.3 yards per game so far) more on the Dalvin good vs Saints rush defense here https://www.full10yards.co.uk/analysing-three-key-matchups-to-watch-for-vikings-saints/ .
State of the Rosters
A rather lengthy list of injuries for New Orleans, many carrying no injury designation meaning they will play on Sunday.
QB Jameis Winston is Doubtful for Sunday and all reports are he will not be playing leaving Andy Dalton to start.
Unfortunately, the Saints will also be without star WR Michael Thomas a player whose skills would have definitely been accentuated by Dalton’s style of play. All reports are the Toe injury shouldn’t keep him out long-term, so hopefully, him being out is more precautionary to make sure the injury isn’t made worse and keep him out longer.
Saints will also be without starting LG Andrus Peat and starting safety Marcus Maye. Not having both players hurt, backup LG Calvin Throckmorton looked rough last week after Peat went out. Not having Maye hurts quite a lot, backup safety P.J. Williams will need to step up again. We could even see Justin Evans take some safety snaps despite playing solely from the slot so far this year.
With Adebo back, that likely means Roby moves to the slot. Freeing Evans to play some more safety.
Seems unlikely 2nd round rookie Andrew Booth will make his season debut after being listed as doubtful.
Za’Darius Smith is listed as questionable, HC Kevin O’Connell has been quoted that Smith is a true game-time decision, but is trending upwards (so I’m sure he will play).
Otherwise fairly clean injury for the Vikings.
Score Prediction
Tough one here, I like to predict things I can root for, thus generally you won’t see me pick against the Saints. This is the first game so far this year where my head says I should.
However, I can see a path for them to win this game so I’m going with that. Saints win 24-21.
Please let me know your feedback on this article and the others throughout the season, I’m always looking to improve and add things that people want to read about!
I want to try and create as much of a UK Saints community as possible, so follow me on Twitter @SaintsReportUK, for much more Saints content and discussion.
The New Orleans Saints need to find a way to win on Sunday. No matter how win ugly if you have to. There are three key matchups the Saints need to be on the right side of to win on Sunday in London.
The Saints lead the league in turnovers with nine in total. Now, before everyone shouts, well you have Jameis Winston at QB what do you expect? He’s not the reason the Saints lead the league in this category.
Of Winston’s five interceptions only two are bad throws. Even one of those was more a good coverage scheme than an interception that Winston has become known for. The bigger problems have been fumbles.
Mark Ingram has lost two fumbles, both coming at crucial times in weeks one and two. Alvin Kamara lost one last week that was returned for a touchdown, the Saints ended up losing by eight against Carolina.
They have 9 offensive penalties so far through three games. Many killing the few good drives the Saints offense has produced. four of those nine penalties have been preventable (false starts, offensive offsides etc).
Recognising, defending and attacking the blitz has been a consistent drive killer. The offense has struggled against the blitz in all three games so far. Winston has been sacked six times against the blitz and pressured a further 12 times.
This has clearly been a problem and has cost the Saints big time in games. For example HIGHLIGHT: Jeremy Chinn hits Jameis Winston for big sack (panthers.com) the lost yardage on this sack caused a missed field goal for New Orleans. This needs to be cleaned up, some of the blame falls on the o-line, some on coaching and some on the QB.
If this was a lot of other QBs in the league (maybe even Andy Dalton who may end up starting on Sunday), they’d have changed the play at the line to a quicker developing pass play, allowing the offense to punish the Panthers for sending that many players. Right now, that awareness isn’t there. Meaning teams can tee up blitzes, at will with no fear of a counter.
If these issues were isolated and occasional then it does come down to the players doing a better job of executing. When these issues are so widespread and consistent then an equal portion of the blame must land on the coaches. The offensive staff led by OC Pete Carmichael Jr. have to do a better job of ironing out these areas of weakness and putting the players in better positions to succeed.
Run Defense Vs Dalvin Cook
Dalvin Cook is one of the most dynamic RBs in the NFL and he is the focal point of the Vikings’ offense. The Vikings want to be able to establish the run to allow for play-action to at its most effective.
In three previous meetings with the Saints, Cook has played rather well. Across those three games, he averages 21.6 (22) rushes for 96 yards, at 4.2 yards per carry. This is compares favourably to other RBs against the Saints over this time. Since 2017 New Orleans has only allowed 94 yards rushing per game in that span. The stat considers every rushing yard in a game, a random QB scramble, a blown assignment allowing a random long run etc… so for Cook to average above that on his own is impressive.
Play action has been effective so far for the Vikings. Kirk Cousins has the third-best passing grade in the league on play-action throws. His stats on play-action passes:
34 attempts, 25 completions for 267 yards. Four TDs to zero Interceptions. 135.5 passer rating
Compare that to his stats on none play-actions throws:
85 attempts, 49 completions for 491 yards. One TD to three interceptions. 63.4 passer rating.
It’s clear that so far this season the Vikings success in the passing game comes from establishing the run. So, the Saints priority must be to stop the running game if they want a chance to win on Sunday.
Marson Lattimore vs Justin Jefferson
Marson Lattimore has been lights out. In three games he’s only been thrown at Seven times, he’s allowed three receptions for 23 yards and a passer rating against of 51.5. All the while he’s lined up against:
Drake London
Kyle Pitts
Mike Evans
Russel Gage
D.J. Moore
I’d say that’s pretty good. This weekend it’s not clear if he will shadow Justin Jefferson or not and I’m interested to see if the Saints elect to have Lattimore travel with Jefferson or if they choose to play sides.
They chose the latter last week @ Carolina and they don’t always choose to have Lattimore travel. Sometimes they prefer to play sides and double-team a player with a LB or Safety.
The way Lattimore is playing I think putting Lattimore on Jefferson and letting them battle it out would be wise. The last time the two faced off the Saints CB came out on top:
Eight targets, 4 receptions for 55 yards and 2 PBUs.
Jefferson started the season hot in week one Vs Green Bay (who many called the best secondary in the league) he went off. Catching nine of his ten targets for 184 yards and 2 TDs. Since then he’s been kept in check.
The Eagles chose for the most part to match him with Darius Slay. That went incredibly well. Whilst in coverage against Slay, Jefferson on six targets only managed one reception for seven yards. Slay also intercepted 2 of the passes.
This is in the plan I think the Saints should copy. Lattimore has been elite and traditionally plays better against a team’s number one WR, as Lattimore knows he has to be at his best. Against lesser competition, he has been known to get complacent and play down their level.
Conclusion
So, stop fumbling, stop getting offensive penalties, and start identifying and attacking the blitz better. Stop the run and finally put Marshon Lattimore on Justin Jefferson. Sounds easy right?
Probably not but I feel these are all a must if the Saints are going to win on Sunday. Regardless of who starts at QB (looks like it will be Andy Dalton).
Please let me know your feedback on this article and the others throughout the season, I’m always looking to improve and add things that people want to read about!
I want to try and create as much of a UK Saints community as possible, so follow me on Twitter @SaintsReportUK, for much more Saints content
It’s that time again! It’s time to sit down and check in on one of the more interesting players and match ups for this weekend’s college football schedule in our Player to Watch space.
However, it hasn’t gone unnoticed that this column appears to have somewhat of a touch of bad luck that follows the players covered – You can read the rest here – With none having a particularly great outing game after being written up.
Big Blue fans will hope that a similar effect isn’t felt by their star running back in this weekend’s game against Iowa… Although, how do you better 243 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns? Anyway, let’s get into Blake Corum…
So who is this power cube of a running back?
Blake Corum is on quite the tear to start this season as Michigan have stormed to a 4-0 start and to #4 in the AP Top 25 (although more importantly to the same position in the UK & Ireland CFB Media Rankings). Corum has scored at least one touchdown in each of the four games, he has had a 5 touchdown game against UConn and followed this with the aforementioned 243 yard game against Maryland last weekend! So it’s safe to say that he’s having quite the season so far!
⭐ Star of the weekend has to be @blake_corum of Michigan!!
🖐️ 5 rushing TDs in the Wolverines' 59-0 victory over UConn. Corum was the picture of efficiency too, 12 rushes for 71 yards and 30 points.
Last year he was part of an absolutely deadly duo with Hassan Haskins in the Wolverines backfield with the pair combining for over 2,400 all-purpose yards. These guys powered Michigan as they won the Big Ten Championship, ended the season ranked #3 in the country, losing in the college football playoff semi-final to eventual champions Georgia and best of all, beat Ohio State.
I’ve got to say I was very interested to see how Corum would fare without Haskins, but he seems to be shouldering the load and thriving as the main man this season! Whether he succumbs to the previously discussed Player to Watch Kiss of Death remains to be seen.
Into the background before we get some film study in then; Corum stands at 5’8 and packs a dense 210 lbs on to his frame – We really are talking about a wrecking ball of a runner here. Corum grew up in Marshall Virginia before heading to St. Frances Academy in Baltimore for High School where he accumulated over 40 touchdowns across his Junior and Senior seasons, which earned him a 4-star rating across all major recruiting sites.
Since arriving on campus in Ann Arbor, Corum has worked his way up the depth chart to make it into his current role; in his Freshman season he mainly saw action as a returner, returning five kicks and one punt, with small action as the third running back in rotation. Although he showed his potential by scoring twice in 31 total touches. Then came the breakout Sophomore season where he and Haskins dominated pretty much everyone they faced.
Let’s see how he does his damage…
Corum is a squatty back who can do damage between the tackles. He has a jittery, one-cut style and good vision, which is fantastic when combined with his burst and lateral quickness when needed to create yardage.
Check out how he makes the first man miss with a cut to the outside before a little shake’n’bake leaves another Northwestern defender’s ankles in shambles for a nice gain that leaves Michigan on the verge of a score.
Which brings me on to Blake’s next strength – The guy is a finisher from short yardage.
This is the very next play in the game against Northwestern. He doesn’t get stopped from that distance, as you can see in the above tweet thread vs. UConn.
Let’s talk about an aspect where Blake is underused – Pass catching. With only 31 catches to date, there isn’t a huge sample size for this but I feel from what I did see, Corum has nice, soft hands and he can take in ones like this that require him to make a catch on the move. Back to the Northwestern game;
There’s no run after catch here, which I feel he can easily get in different circumstances, but I have included this one as I felt it was one that could easily have been dropped. He’s backpedalling, with defenders approaching at pace.
Generally speaking, I see a lot of evidence of Blake being a safe checkdown option with the ability to catch the ball with hands extended away from his body, before turning and accelerating upfield for a decent gain. Easy money for JJ McCarthy and Michigan.
This is an area that will also intrigue NFL teams and make them wonder about his ceiling in his area, because it does feel like there’s untapped potential here.
This next clip is one I absolutely love, which is from the Michigan State game from last year. Michigan schemes up a lovely run off the left side of their line here, Corum shows outstanding patience to wait for the blockers to open things up and he’s able to burst through the gap. This is a long-developing run play with both tight ends making their way across the formation, as well as the center getting involved. Some running backs would get jittery and get dancing feet in the backfield on plays like this, but not Blake.
It’s not a huge gain but just shows his maturity as a runner.
I’ve also seen multiple instances of Corum being willing and able to do the dirty work as a running back. Corum is willing to chip as he releases out of the backfield, he’s willing to stay in as a pass protector when needed too, and he’s more than a speed bump in those situations. Corum will also get after it as a blocker downfield too when the ball doesn’t go to him and he puts in the effort when doing so.
Add this to his value as a returner, (although as the clear RB1 Michigan hasn’t asked him to return through four games this year) and we have a player whose stock has a good floor level.
However, as is tradition here in the Player to Watch film segment, we can’t finish off before giving one area of weakness and for Corum aside from his size profile, it’s his long speed.
In short areas he’s great and he has the burst to make a short gain into a long one but over long distances he’s just not a burner.
We can see this in this return against Western Michigan last season. It’s a superb play and sets Michigan up with fantastic field position, but I feel like a real speedster takes his to the house.
A positive within a play I’m using a negative though – The contact balance is brilliant. Corum’s low center of gravity and thick lower half means he’s very difficult to bring down on first contact.
On to this weekend!
This week against Iowa sees Corum face a stingy defense with a couple of big linebackers…
Iowa’s record stands at 3-1 for the season so far, which on the face of it, seems pretty good. However, anyone who has been paying attention to college football will have noticed that the Iowa offense has become somewhat of a meme with their lack of scoring punch. Although, back-to-back 27 point outputs (albeit against Nevada and Rutgers) may stem the tidal wave of tweets somewhat.
On the flip side, the Hawkeyes defense is performing at a high level, having given up just 20 total points all season. Ok, the opponents have been South Dakota State, Iowa State, Nevada and Rutgers but still, this defense has always been a good units that has almost always performed to a level that is more than the sum of its parts in under Kirk Ferentz and DC, Phil Parker.
The unit is anchored by linebackers, Jestin Jacobs and star man, Jack Campbell, who was ranked very highly by myself and Keith in our Summer Scouting podcast. Jacobs measures up at 6’4 and Campbell at 6’5, unusual given their positions, so it will really feel like a David and Goliath(s) game when Corum gets to the second level. Campbell in particular is a tackling machine with good tackle radius and stopping power. He’s not the most athletic when moving side-to-side, but I know he’ll have been devouring Corum film in the lead up to this game and will be ready.
I really feel like this one-on-one is key – If Campbell can stop Corum from getting going, it’ll go a long way to stopping the cogs in the Michigan machine from turning, and give Iowa a chance to stay in the game and maybe steal it. The Wolverines may have put up 200 points so far this season but this is Big Ten football now, and Kinnick Stadium is never an easy place to play.
So should you be looking forward to seeing Corum on Sundays?
Corum will get drafted, there’s no doubt in my mind about that.
He has been very productive, he’s got some interesting traits as we discussed earlier, as well as some special teams value. He has also played at a high level for a blue blood programme, in a time of success for the programme. However, just how high will he be drafted?
I feel like Corum’s size puts limitations on his draft ceiling – There just aren’t too many 5’8 running backs who are hugely successful in the league right now and of course, running back is a hugely devalued position in today’s NFL, especially when it comes to the draft.
His old buddy Hassan Haskins was picked up with the 131st Pick (fourth round) by the Tennessee Titans, and I think that could be a similar point in which Corum has his name called on day 3 of the draft next April.
Yes, it sounds sort of disrespectful to say that his super-productive college player will go on day 3, but that’s the reality of having this profile, at this position. Every season there is a running back who is productive in the NFL, that 90% of fans of his team won’t have heard of before he started scoring touchdowns on Sundays. Think of someone like Elijah Mitchell at the 49ers, he was drafted in the 6th round and has 1,100 scrimmage yards last year! However that is sadly the reality of it, especially when he doesn’t have that breakaway speed. He’s a short-term, short yardage battering ram, the kind of back that an NFL team will draft, run into the ground whilst on his rookie contract and then discard, in all likelihood.
Sad, but true.
To Conclude…
Corum is a super-fun player to watch and he will be fondly remembered in Ann Arbor and by Michigan fans for a long while. However, there’s a part of me which feels that he could blend into relative obscurity in the NFL, whilst having a respectable career for a decent number of years.
The sort of player who makes me think, fun college player but just fine in the NFL.
So let’s enjoy his dominance whilst he’s still playing on Saturdays! Corum is worth a watch almost alone for a Michigan team who will be pushing all the way for that 4th playoff spot this year and another visit to the CFB playoff.
By Lee Wakefield – Follow Lee on Twitter, @Wakefield90
