Author: Sean Tyler - @SeanTylerUK

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PICK SIX – Week 6

Wow, we’re a third of the way through the regular season already. Doesn’t time fly when Travis Kelce is impressing Taylor Swift, the Browns are beating the Niners and Cooper Kupp is doing Cooper Kupp things again? Anyway, here are the thoughts of Shaun Blundell and Sean Tyler on these and some other talking points from the Week 6 slate.

Sweet 16 for Kelce and co.

A day after the premiere of her new concert movie, pop diva Taylor Swift returned to the corporate boxes at Arrowhead Stadium – resplendent in a Red Chiefs jacket – to watch her beau, tight end Travis Kelce, star in a 19-8 win over the Broncos. This was KC’s 16th successive victory against their AFC West rivals. The Last Time Denver won, in 2015, Peyton Manning led them to the Super Bowl.

Patrick Mahomes only threw one touchdown pass and also had an ugly red-zone INT, his fifth turnover of the season. Isiah Pacheco was a solid threat (62 rushing, 36 receiving), rookie Rashee Rice snagged four for 72 and Kadarius Toney reeled in the Chiefs’ only TD. Harrison Butker also took some of the limelight, hitting four FGs including a 60-yarder.

But once again, it was very much the Travis Kelce show. His bad ankle was heavily strapped but he was able to Shake It Off, hauling in all nine of his targets for 124 yards. Exploiting Denver’s zone coverage, he personally outgained his opponents 109-94 in the first half on the way to his 36th 100-yard game (extending his own NFL record) and his sixth against the Broncos. He’s a bit of an Anti-Hero at times but you can’t deny that he is The Man.

We mustn’t forget that the Kansas City defense also played their part. They held Denver to 197 total yards and restricted Russell Wilson to 13 completions, with two interceptions and five sacks. Courtland Sutton (46) was the only Denver receiver with more than 16 receiving yards as Sean Payton was six minutes away from his first career shut-out. Yet somehow, trailing 16-0 in the fourth, Denver made it a one-score game when Sutton caught an 11-yard TD pass with some Style.

Remember, their lacklustre opponents shipped 70 points a fortnight ago so the Chiefs do need to improve offensively. Their inability to turn red-zone trips into touchdowns nearly cost them but luckily, you don’t have to be that good to beat Denver at the moment. And it helps if you have a Travis Kelce on your roster. The Mastermind behind it all, HC Andy Reid, also had an off-night, opting to kick or fake punt on short fourth downs when the Mahomes–Kelce connection was obviously humming.

Still, good teams find a way to win even when they’re not playing at their best and that seems to be the case with KC. This was their second sub-20 score of the season but they still covered the 10.5-point spread (just), progressed to 5-1 and tightened their grip on the top seed in the AFC. Based on recent history, we know All Too Well how this story ends. [ST]

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Browns solve the Brock Purdy conundrum

The Browns needed a brilliant defensive display on Sunday to stand any chance of beating the San Francisco 49ers heading into the weekend. They got it – and then some – in grinding out a 19-17 victory. The Browns defense has started the year like a juggernaut and after the latest win, they became the stingiest unit through five weeks in over 50 years, giving up 1,002 total yards in that span.

Niners QB Brock Purdy was harassed all day. He seemingly looked out of rhythm throughout as the Browns pass rush consistently applied pressure. The box score will only say three sacks but there were a further six QB hits and five tackles for loss recorded. Special credit goes to defensive tackle Dalvin Tomlinson who was seemingly deeper in the backfield than the 49ers running backs for most of the afternoon. 

Purdy completed just 44% of his passes for a mere 125 yards and threw his first interception of the season for good measure. It’s the lowest output for a Kyle Shanahan-led San Francisco team – that’s how special this Browns defensive performance was – after the Niners scored 42 against Dallas and put up 30-plus points in every game this campaign.

A lot will be made about Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel leaving the contest through injury. CMC had already scored his now-compulsory touchdown on the opening drive when he bagged 45 total yards. His final stat line read 11 carries for 43 yards so yes, he logged eight more carries for -2 yards after the opening drive. He left the game late in the third quarter.

Yes, Deebo was a big miss too but before we make too many excuses for the 49ers, let’s not forget about what the Browns were dealing with. No Deshaun Watson. No Nick Chubb. No Jack Conklin. And for the first time in his career, no Joel Bitonio. The deck was stacked against Cleveland but they had just enough from stand-in QB PJ Walker and company on offense to keep the game close. Walker was only sacked twice the whole day, Amari Cooper reeled in four grabs for 108 yards and the committee approach on the ground yielded 160 rushing yards. So if the Browns offense can get healthy, they have the luxury of playing with the best defense in football. [SB]

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Gang Green scalp the last of the unbeatens

After the Niners’ loss, we were left with just one undefeated team – the 5-0 Eagles – but by the end of Sunday night, the last 100% record in the NFL had also come crashing down. But Philly’s 20-14 defeat wasn’t just their first loss of the campaign; it was also their first loss to the Jets ever.

Despite their unblemished record, Philly haven’t been firing on all cylinders this season but have still found a way to win every week. But not this time. There were too many mistakes offensively and the Jets D came to play. They held the Eagles’ run game in check (Kenneth Gainwell posted just 13 rushing yards and D’Andre Swift ran for 18) and also restricted Jalen Hurts to 28 of 45 for 280 yards, one rushing TD and one TD pass. In playing Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes and now Hurts, the 3-3 Jets have allowed three TD passes but had eight interceptions. Hats off to HC Robert Saleh and defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich.

The one bright spot for the Eagles’ attack was AJ Brown, who made hay without corners Sauce Gardner and DJ Reed patrolling the New York backfield. His seven catches for 131 yards means he’s posted four consecutive 120-yard games, which makes you wonder why he only got three targets after halftime. In fact, the whole Eagles team seemed to switch off in the second half, having led 14-9 at the break. Their fruitless second-half drives ended punt, punt, interception, missed FG, interception and turnover on downs, and only one went further than 35 yards.

While much of Jalen Hurts’ troubles came through Haason Reddick (two sacks, two tackles for loss) and Bryce Huff (1.5 sacks, nine QB pressures), it was those three interceptions from Quinnen Williams, Bryce Hall and Tony Adams that proved decisive. CJ Mosley also picked up a fumble by Swift. In being handed the ball back four times, New York scored 11 points. That defined the result in a game where Philly outgained their opponents by 100 yards, allowed fewer sacks, gave away fewer penalties and were much more efficient on third down. And other than a Breece Hall rushing TD and Randall Cobb two-point conversion, the only points they gave up came from Greg Zuerlien’s boot.

But for all that, it was the giveaways that killed the Eagles. If they’re going to keep their lofty perch at the top of the NFC, they’ll have to iron out such flaws from their game. Next week’s opponents, Miami, will really make them pay if they don’t. [ST]

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Jags pass the London test

The Jacksonville Jaguars are effectively known as “London’s team” because of their long-standing commitment to playing games in the UK. The International Series will go down as a roaring success once more with great ticket sales and viewership – the two things the league will care about. The big question this season was how would an NFL team respond to playing back-to-back games overseas without a bye week to come home to? 

The Jags completed their London double-header last week by taking down the Bills. But this week was probably the bigger test: how would Jacksonville respond when they returned across the Atlantic? A defensive takeaway and two offensive touchdowns in the opening four series has to go down as a pretty good start. With just over three minutes to go in the third quarter, the score was Jacksonville 31, Indianapolis 6. Game, set and match.

The Jaguars forced four turnovers on the day, including picking off Gardner Minshew three times and forcing a fumble against their old QB to boot. The 37-20 win was powered by defense and special teams, with 17 points coming from those turnovers (20 if you want to include the additional three via a turnover on downs late in the game). The Jags made Indy abandon the running game, which had led to their success against the Titans a week ago. The combination of Zack Moss and Jonathan Taylor were limited to a measly 40 yards on a combined 15 carries.

Jacksonville looked sluggish out of the gates this season but the London trip was described three weeks ago by Doug Pederson as “hitting us at the right time”. His analysis certainly seems spot on. [SB]

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Can the backups step up?

This season, we’ve already seen a few QB injuries. Aaron Rodgers ruptured his Achilles four plays into the season, Joe Burrow has been struggling with a gammy calf, Deshaun Watson hasn’t suited up for the Browns in a couple of weeks and the Colts are currently riding with Gardner Minshew while Anthony Richardson contemplates season-ending surgery on his shoulder. And on Sunday, two more gunslingers went down, making their respective teams’ seasons all the more challenging.      

According to most pre-season pundits, the Las Vegas Raiders (now 3-3) were never going to tear up any trees this year but if they are without Jimmy Garoppolo for any length of time, their campaign will be even tougher sledding than expected. Jimmy G left the Raiders’ game with the Patriots in the first half after suffering a back injury, and was eventually taken to a local hospital for further tests. That left journeyman backup Brian Hoyer to pick up the pieces with the score at 13-3. Despite only throwing 6 of 10 for 102 yards and no TDs, at least he didn’t give away the ball, and eventually steered his team to a 21-17 victory.  

For all his limitations, at least we’ve all heard of Hoyer. When Chicago’s Justin Fields left Sunday’s game with Minnesota with a dislocated thumb after a Danielle Hunter sack, in stepped Tyson Bagent. Have you heard of him? Nope, me neither. The undrafted rookie immediately gave away a sack fumble that Jordan Hicks returned for a pick six. He did score a 1-yard rushing TD in the fourth to make it a one-score game but the newbie was picked off later, as the Bears slumped to a 19-13 loss.

Fields’ season so far has been a bit of a rollercoaster. After two great games against Denver and Washington, Bad Justin reappeared. Before his third-quarter injury, he was just 6 of 10 for 58 yards and an INT. Whether Bagent takes the reins in Chicago for an extended period of time depends on the results of an MRI but given the level of inconsistency at the position, this 1-5 team should be looking to draft a quarterback next year anyway. If the Bears select a Caleb Williams or a Drake Maye, it will push Bagent back down the pecking order (if they keep him at all) so what more motivation does he need to put some film together while he has the chance?

Next week, the Raiders and Bears face off at Soldier Field so with both teams potentially forced to employ stand-in QBs, each may feel that it’s the perfect time to play the other. [ST]

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Cream of the Kupp

Puka Nacua rightly made all the headlines in the opening weeks of the Rams’ season. Cooper Kupp, however, showed exactly why he has been the league’s leading receiver in recent years with a brilliant display in the LA Rams’ 26-9 victory over the Arizona Cardinals. Kupp was the star turn in a performance that saw Los Angeles rack up 23 unanswered points, fighting back to an even .500 record while dropping their divisional foes to 1-5.

The biggest play of the day for Kupp sprung the Rams into life after a pretty anaemic first half. With no timeouts remaining and the length of the field ahead of them, Matthew Stafford dropped a dime right into the bucket of his star man for 49 yards. This allowed LA to kick a field goal to close out the half. It was nothing more than a simple go route where Kupp accelerated past the coverage and bizarrely, the Cardinals did not have any help over the top.

On the first possession of the second half, the Rams put together a scoring drive covering 10 plays, culminating in Kupp’s first receiving touchdown of the campaign. Again, it was Kei’Trel Clark who was beaten in coverage as Stafford found Kupp at the right pylon. The Rams never looked back. Kupp finished the day with seven catches for 148 yards and the aforementioned touchdown, making up over 65% of the Rams’ total passing attack on the day. 

It was a second half in particular where the Rams leaned heavily on the run so special praise should also be heaped on Kyren Williams who had himself a career day (20 carries, 158 rushing yards and a TD). With that said, when the chips were down, it was always Kupp who had his number called. With a chance to put the game away in the fourth quarter, the Rams faced 2nd-and-17. Two passing plays later, we’d seen two Cooper Kupp receptions and 29 yards gained. He is Mr Reliable and it’s safe to say the main man is back in town. [SB]

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PICK SIX – Week 5

We’re five weeks into the season and we – Shaun Blundell and Sean Tyler – are here to pick six more things that caught our eye in the last round of games. This week, our interest-o-meter was set off by the Bears waking up, the Bills going to sleep and the Steelers defying all logic, plus CJ Stroud, Brock Purdy and Bill Belichick. Let’s pick the meat off the bones.

Bears emerge from hibernation

It’s fair to say that Chicago have not been having any fun lately. They came into Thursday night on a run of 14 losses stretching back 350 days (the longest losing streak in their 104-year history). They had just squandered a 21-point lead to the Broncos. Their DC resigned in Week 2. Exiled WR Chase Claypool was shipped off to Miami. And before the game, the passing of franchise legend Dick Butkus was announced.

But, as the saying goes, it’s always darkest before the dawn and on TNF, they – one of the league’s two remaining winless teams – finally got the dub they’d been so desperate for. The Bears travelled to Washington to face a feisty Commanders team that took the Eagles to OT the previous week and despite starting as six-point underdogs, they got a deserved 40-20 victory. They shot out to a 27-3 halftime lead but unlike last week, the Bears didn’t buckle when injuries, not least to RB Khalil Herbert, started to bite. Indeed, they sacked Sam Howells five times.

But it was the connection between Justin Fields and DJ Moore that decided this matchup. Despite only completing 15 passes to just three different players – Moore, plus tight ends Cole Kmet and Robert Tonyan – Fields (282 passing yards/4 TDs) torched Emmanuel Forbes and Kendall Fuller all night. With 617 yards, eight TDs and one INT in his past two games, he suddenly seems to have found his groove.

Moore was the main beneficiary, with a career-high (and TNF-high) 230 receiving yards and 3 TDs from just eight catches. That haul makes him the first Bears player in the Super Bowl era with 200+ receiving yards and 3+ receiving TDs in a game. Moore’s numbers were boosted by chunk plays of 58, 56, 39, 32 and 20 yards, and he could’ve had another big TD had a fourth-quarter bomb not been overthrown.

So, after an entire year of losing every which way, the Bears – and HC Matt Eberflus – can finally enjoy a W. Which means you can drag that meme, which showed Chicago as the only franchise across the big four US sports leagues (NFL, MLB, NBA and NHL) that hadn’t won a game since Elon Musk bought Twitter in October 2022, off your desktop and into the recycle bin. [ST]

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Stroud and proud

It has been a record-breaking start to a career for Texans quarterback CJ Stroud and during the Week 5 21-19 loss to the Atlanta Falcons, he added more records to his name. He has now started his young NFL career with 186 passing attempts without throwing an interception. That mark eclipses the 176 attempts made by Dak Prescott when he started in the NFL and sets the new benchmark for 2024 and beyond.

It is one of those stats that could be meaningless, however. Essentially tossing the ball into the stands on every play would avoid an interception but wouldn’t be an ideal gameplan to win in the NFL. The fact is, Stroud has accomplished this feat while playing well and pumping much-needed life and optimism into the Texans franchise.

He may not have had his best game on Sunday but the big players show up in the big moments. Down by 6 with just under seven minutes to go, Stroud orchestrated an 11-play, 75-yard drive that culminated in a beautiful 18-yard touchdown strike to tight end Dalton Schultz. It moved the Texans in front but it would be the last time Stroud touched the football as the Falcons managed the clock, to kick a game-winning field goal as the clock hit zero.

It would not be an understatement to suggest that Stroud doesn’t have the most stellar of supporting casts. With that said, it seems as though the Texans have found the answer at the most important position on the field. Stroud is giving his team every opportunity to win, he is not turning the ball over and he will surely only continue to get better and better. Houston may have found a really good one. [SB]

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To err is human

These days, everything is ‘smart’: our TVs, our central heating, our phones, pretty much every piece of tech has gone beyond automation and is now seemingly capable of sentient thought. The robots will soon take over, believe me, and the revolution seems to have started, ever-so-quietly, in the most unexpected of places: among the ranks of NFL quarterbacks.

Last month, Chicago QB Justin Fields blamed his ‘robotic’ play on his coaches, who were feeding him too much information. That’s just what a robot would do, isn’t it – blame us unpredictable, flawed humans for making him look too mechanical. Not convinced? OK, fair enough. But how do you explain Niners quarterback Brock Purdy?

The last name picked in the 2022 NFL draft has now been at the helm of 10 straight regular season wins since starting for the 49ers. He is a machine – literally. The so-called Mr Irrelevant has yet to lose (other than the time he had to leave the field in the first quarter against the Eagles in the NFC Championship Game, presumably to have a circuit board resoldered or his mainframe rebooted). He had just one incompletion last week against Arizona and has yet to throw an interception five games into the new season. In his latest outing – Sunday’s 42-10 trouncing of Dallas – he went 17 of 24 for 252 yards and a career-high four TDs, three of them to George Kittle. He’s improving week by week without regression: that’s machine learning for you.

Broadcaster Kyle Brandt, the co-host of Good Morning Football, has this running joke that Purdy is an AI experiment. He’s had some fantastic rants about Purdy not bleeding, sweating or even blinking, and his conspiracy theory has even been picked up by the UK press. “I think there is a conspiracy that will certainly come out years from now that they wanted the first artificial intelligence player,” he told The Mirror. “They’re like: ‘We need to start introducing AI into the game.’”

It’s obviously just a bit of fun but what if he’s actually right? With someone (something?) this consistent, this dependable, you can’t rule it out. Maybe it’s a Truman-Show-style social experiment but until Purdy shows that he’s fallible – and I’m not talking about them programming an algorithm into the matrix to make him appear more human – I’m with Kyle. Brock Purdy’s a machine, the 49ers are going 17-0 and the day the robots take over is closer than you think. [ST]

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The GOAT keeps being slaughtered

It’s been a long time since we’ve heard the boo birds at Gillette Stadium but this Sunday, they were out in full force. It’s been a quiet three years post-Tom Brady, with most fans giving Bill Belichick plenty of time and grace to rebuild the powerhouse franchise of the first 20 years of the millennium. Those heady days of winning 17 out of 20 divisional titles, nine conference championships and six Super Bowls feel like a lifetime ago.

For New England, the head coach is still the face of the franchise, and therein lies the problem. Name a superstar on the New England roster. You can’t. They don’t have any that you could name. But they do have plenty of journeymen. Ezekiel Elliot last played quality football three or four years ago. JuJu Smith-Schuster was the Steelers’ number 1 receiver three or four years ago. Hunter Henry, the tight end, may have become something special in San Diego – and no, that isn’t a typo, that’s how long ago it was. And I haven’t even mentioned Brady’s ‘replacement’, Mac Jones, as that’s a whole other story.

Normally, a Belichick defense will at least keep things tight. How does shipping 72 points in two weeks sound? The Cowboys are a team that can rack up points on any given week but the Saints? New Orleans had scored less than 21 points in 10 straight games, yet they rocked up to Foxborough and put up the biggest shutout scoreline against the Patriots in their history (34-0). 

The quote from the press conference Belichick used after the game was: “So just plain and simply, we’ve got to find a way to play and coach better than that. So that’s what we are going to do: start all over and get back on a better track than we’re on right now.” Maybe the answer is that the Patriots truly start again and hand the keys over completely, as this current version of New England is a mirage of what once was. [SB]

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No jet lag for the Jags

On reflection, the second International Series game of the season, a 25-20 win for the Jaguars over the Bills at Tottenham Stadium, didn’t quite live up to the hype. The game only kicked into life midway through the fourth quarter, when the teams traded four TDs – two each. Until then though, it had all been rather attritional, with the defenses on top and offenses struggling to fill the highlight reel.

Sure, the Jags secured their second win on these shores in a week and deserved to move to 3-2. Trevor Lawrence threw for 315 yards but only one TD – the game’s opener to Zay Jones – leaving the bulk of the damage to be done by Travis Etienne (136 yards and 2 rushing TDs) and Calvin Ridley (seven catches for 122 yards). They did have some trouble with drops and fumbles, but their D stepped up when needed, forcing the Bills to punt six times and leaving them with under 22 minutes of possession.

Beforehand, this clash looked to be one of the better of the 35 contests to be staged in our capital, and many – me included – were expecting a shootout. Both teams are tipped for postseason action and the Bills, who had scored 123 points in their last three games, were arguably the hottest team in the league. Yet they rarely showed it. Josh Allen threw for just 23 yards in the first quarter, the Bills mustered 29 rushing yards all game and they committed 11 penalties for 109 yards. With Greg Rousseau, Tre’Davious White and Shaq Lawson already out, Matt Milano leaving early with a broken leg, DaQuan Jones also injuring a pec and the returning Von Miller on a snap count, it was mainly left to AJ Epenesa (with two of his team’s five sacks) to keep things competitive on the defensive side. A scoreless third quarter meant that theoretically, everything was still to play for but the Jags looked in control and always stayed a score or two ahead.

On Friday’s media day, Stefon Diggs called his QB ‘sleepyhead’ and Allen himself admitted to having “a few coffees” to stay awake, even though he doesn’t normally drink the stuff. Then in the post-match presser, he confessed “We never felt like we got into a rhythm until late in the game.” Which does make you wonder: how much of a factor is the international travel? The Buffalo team flew in to the UK overnight on Thursday and stayed up to practice on Friday, in an attempt to overcome the five-hour time dfference. But it didn’t seem to have the desired effect, with the Bills looking like they had yet to acclimatise or adjust to a game that kicked off at 9.30am Eastern time.

By contrast, Jacksonville had been in London for 10 days, having beaten Atlanta at Wembley the week before. I guess the success of the Jaguars’ extended stay makes back-to-back games in London more likely in the future, but it also raises the question as to whether it will give them a massive advantage. [ST]

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The Steelers top the North. How?

“The AFC North: toughest division in football” is a line often thrown around by commentators. But after five weeks of the season, the toughest thing about it is figuring out if any of the teams are actually any good. There is a solitary game between the four divisional rivals after the opening quarter of the season. The team at the top? The one with a minus 31 point differential: the Pittsburgh Steelers.

In an awful game full of mistakes and miscues from both sides, the Steelers somehow managed to conjure up 14 points in the 4th quarter to beat the Baltimore Ravens 17-10. It started with a safety on a blocked punt. The next drive resulted in a field goal so the Steelers were just two points behind. The final seven minutes of the game were simply bizarre.

The Ravens punted again but this time the Steelers muffed the return, setting up Baltimore at the Steelers 7-yard line. Lamar Jackson inexplicably threw an interception. The Steelers edged towards field goal territory when Kenny Pickett unleashed his best pass of the day, 41 yards to George Pickens, for a touchdown. It surprised everyone in the stadium and it also gave Lamar the ball back with 1:17 to go. He fumbled, and the ball was recovered by TJ Watt. Surely it was game over?

Even then, Pittsburgh seemingly didn’t want the win. They knelt twice, forcing the Ravens to use timeouts, and were going to kneel a third time. But on the play, there was an illegal procedure so it brought up 4th down after running just 13 seconds off the clock and going backwards 6 yards. They kicked an FG but that still left Lamar with one last chance of redemption… until a Watt sack on 4th down ended the game. Somehow, Pittsburgh improved to 3-2.

Surely the Steelers won’t win the division playing like this? They are, however, consistent in that they know the limitations of their offence and play behind a big play defence that has 11 turnovers through five games. The rest of the division needs to sort out their Jekyll and Hyde play because as always, Mike Tomlin will get the Steelers to at least .500 by hook or by crook. [SB]

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PICK SIX – Week 4

Week 4 of the 2023 NFL season is now in the books and Sean Tyler is back to pick six more things worthy of discussion and dissection (while Shaun Blundell spends his bye week taking in the first of this season’s International Series games). But enough of the preamble. David Montgomery, Khalil Mack, Mac Jones, the Super Bowl favourites, Lamar Jackson and the battling Denver Broncos: you have my attention!

David finally slays his Goliath

Cast your minds back a couple of years to October 2021. Sealing a 24-14 win over the Bears at Soldier Field, Packers QB Aaron Rodgers ran in a late TD, then turned to the crowd and yelled “I own you! I still own you!” It was unnecessarily provocative but factually correct, as he’d just secured Green Bay a 20th win in 23 encounters.

That day, Bears RB David Montgomery was on IR but during his four years there, he lost all seven matchups against the Cheeseheads. But things are different now. In the offseason, he moved 400 miles due west to Detroit – another divisional foe – and on Thursday night, at Lambeau Field, the Lions won 34-20, their fourth straight win against Green Bay. Montgomery finally beat his old nemesis and while Rodgers himself was no longer there, I bet the taste of victory was no less sweet.

He was undoubtedly the workhorse of the game, carrying the rock 32 times – the most by any player this season – for 121 yards. He also rumbled into the paint for a career-best three touchdowns, from 3, 2 and 1 yard out, and had two catches for 20 yards for good measure.

Sure, his average (3.8 yards) suggests volume over efficiency but it was one hell of an effort, considering he missed last week’s game against Atlanta with a thigh injury and was questionable for this one. “To come out here with these guys and get the dub, that’s big for me,” he told reporters. “I can now tell my son that I beat the Packers!”

Another new experience for the former Iowa State man is sitting on top of the NFC North. Chicago never finished higher than second when he was there and the Lions haven’t won the division for 30 years. So after two big road victories (having won the season opener at Arrowhead), you can’t begrudge the 3-1 Lions – and especially Montgomery – their lofty perch. [ST]

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The cream always rises to the top

Before the season, the four teams with the shortest Super Bowl odds were the Chiefs, Bills, 49ers and Eagles. Well, whaddya know: Kansas City and Buffalo are up at the top of the AFC standings at 3-1 while in the NFC, San Francisco and Philadelphia are the only two teams in the league with a 100% record.

After wobbly starts on the opening weekend, the Bills and Chiefs have rediscovered their mojo. Buffalo lost 22-16 to the Jets on the first MNF of the season but have since despatched the Raiders, Commanders and Dolphins while scoring 123 points. This weekend’s 48-20 destruction of Miami was a Josh Allen/Stefon Diggs masterclass, with Allen posting four passing TDs, an 11-yard rushing score and a perfect 158.3 passer rating. The main beneficiary was Diggs, who totalled 120 yards and caught three of those TD passes. Suffice to say, the Bills are looking scarily good right now and should put on a show for UK fans this Sunday.

The Chiefs also bounced back from an opening-day defeat to the Lions with wins over Jacksonville and Chicago, and then eeked out a 23-20 victory over the Jets in Sunday’s late game. They built a 17-0 lead, on the back of a 115-yard/1 TD rushing performance from Isiah Pacheco but two uncharacteristic INTs from Patrick Mahomes at least made it interesting. Nonetheless, the big red machine marches on and they currently sit where you’d expect: top seed in the AFC.

In the other conference, the Niners have looked imperious, scoring exactly 30 in wins over the Steelers, Rams and Giants before seeing off the Cardinals 35-16 this weekend. Unsurprisingly, the stars of the show were once again Brock Purdy (20 of 21 for 283), Brandon Aiyuk (148 receiving yards) and the irrepressible Christian McCaffrey. As well as rushing for 106 yards and 3 TDs, he also made seven catches for 71 yards and another tuddy. Run CMC’s 459 rushing yards this season put him almost 100 ahead of his nearest rival already.

Matching them win for win are the Eagles, carrying on from last season’s Super Bowl run with barely a blip, despite changing both offensive and defensive coordinators. After Ws over the Patriots, Vikings and Buccaneers, they needed OT to see off a spirited Commanders side this weekend. Luckily, AJ Brown (175 receiving yards, 2 TDs) was in the mood and Philly stay undefeated with a 34-31 victory.

So, there you have it. It’s a little demoralising for the other 28 franchises to see the usual contenders setting the pace already but if you had a flutter on one of them to go all the way, you’re probably feeling pretty chuffed so far. Let’s see if they can keep up the pace. [ST]

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Lamar: last man standing in the North

The general consensus is that the AFC North is the NFL’s most competitive division this year. The Bengals had won back-to-back titles, signed Joe Burrow to a historically large contract and brought in Orlando Brown Jr to sure up the O-line. The Ravens signed Lamar Jackson to a mega-deal, picked up Odell Beckham Jr off the street and got all their guys back after two years blighted by injuries. With Myles Garrett and Za’Davius Smith in their ranks, Cleveland are by far the strongest of the four defensively and, as we like to say here at F10Y headquarters, “the Steelers won the offseason” so even their tails were up.

But a month is a long time in football and after just four games, it’s all starting to unravel for three of these teams.

Let’s get the big one out of the way first: the 1-3 Bengals are absolutely awful this season! At the bottom of almost every metric you can think of, the offense is (if you’ll excuse the mixed metaphors) clearly hamstrung by Burrow’s calf injury. He’s almost immobile in the pocket, which makes him a sitting duck. With just three TDs in four games, two outings with only a field goal to show for their efforts, including Sunday’s 27-3 loss to the Titans, and a suddenly leaky defense that let Derrick Henry rumble for 122 yards, run in a score and throw a TD pass as well(!), you can make a solid case for them being the worst team in the league at the moment.

So, to Pittsburgh, now 2-2. Kenny Pickett amassed 15 of 23 for 114 yards and an INT before leaving the field during their 30-6 loss at the Houston Texans with a knee injury. And their defense let the improving Texans rack up 451 yards of offense. For now at least, they contemplate life with backup Mitch Trubisky flinging the pigskin, which surely can’t be a good thing, can it?

And what of the 2-2 Browns? Their defense is, as expected, a force to be reckoned with but again, offensively, there are issues. Nick Chubb’s ghastly knee injury a couple of weeks ago left their running game severely weakened for the rest of the year and on Sunday, Watson was replaced by debutant Dorian Thompson-Robinson due to a shoulder injury. The rookie stand-in completed 19 of 36 for 121 yards, threw 3 INTs and his team scored just three points in a 28-3 humbling by Baltimore. Room for improvement there, for sure, but at least they have a bye week to help them reset.

The 3-1 Ravens are not without their own injury woes, with their left tackle and two receivers missing on Sunday. But they are at least the last of the four teams with a fully fit starting QB… and it’s Lamar Jackson. On Sunday, he ran in two TDs, threw for two more (both to Mark Andrews) and only had four incompletions all day. So it seems whoever’s missing from their ranks, Jackson can still carry the team on his back.

As expected, it’s been attritional and much of it hasn’t been pretty, with the Bengals sinking, the Steelers struggling and the Browns regressing. And unless something changes quickly, the AFC North already looks like its Baltimore’s to lose. So much for competitive. [ST]

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Return of the Mack

The LA Chargers gave up at least 24 points in their first three games and Joey Bosa was sidelined for Sunday’s clash with the Raiders. So was rookie QB Aiden O’Connell – making his first start for Las Vegas in place of Jimmy Garoppolo (concussion) – going to get an easy ride of it? Not on your nelly.

Step forward 32-years-young Khalil Mack. The edge rusher posted double-digit sacks every year from 2015 to 2018 (with Oakland and Chicago), but his team needed him to wind back the clock and regain that kind of game-changing form. And boy, did he prove he can still bring the heat. Mack recorded all six of his team’s sacks, only one short of tying the NFL’s single-game record set by Derrick Thomas in 1990. In so doing, he joins Thomas as the only other player with multiple games with five-plus sacks. Mack now goes straight to the top of the current NFL sack race, joining (the other) Josh Allen and TJ Watt with half a dozen each.

Terrorising the team that drafted him back in 2014, Mack was a one-man wrecking crew who just couldn’t be contained. Coming off both sides like a heat-seeking missile, he also logged nine tackles, five tackles for loss, 10 QB pressures and seven QB hits, giving O’Connell a torrid debut. To say Mack’s sack attack was pivotal to the Bolts securing a 24-17 win is definitely the understatement of the week.

As HC Brandon Staley said afterwards, “He’d been close to having three monster games. Today, he put it all together. This guy’s one of the best edge players of his generation. He’s still that guy.” [ST]

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The comeback kids

Those of you who watch Red Zone on DAZN/Game Pass will be familiar with the Witching Hour. That’s the point, late in the 6pm Sunday window, when Scott Hanson tells us, in his scariest Halloween voice, “it’s the time when wins become losses, and losses become wins”.

Well, you can tell we’re in October already because there was something spooky going on this Sunday. Take the clash between the Rams and Colts, for example. It all seemed plain sailing for Los Angeles, who took a 23-0 lead midway through the third quarter. But once Scott had delivered his line, the witches cast their spells.

A 35-yard TD pass from Indy QB Anthony Richardson to tight end Moe Ali-Cox and a 2-point conversion: 23-8. Then, a missed field goal by the Rams’ Brett Maher followed by a 1-yard rushing TD by Richardson: 23-15. A short TD pass to Andrew Ogletree and another 2-point conversion: 23-23! Frustratingly, once parity was reached, the teams traded punts, the comeback stalled and OT was needed. The Rams finally prevailed, with that man Puka Nacua getting his first TD of a standout debut season, but the Colts deserve a lot of credit for their supernatural 23-point comeback.

Then there was the game between the winless Bears and Broncos. Chicago had built up a 28-7 lead with less than half a minute left in the third quarter so again, enough for a first win of the season, surely? You’d have thought so but no sooner had “when wins become losses” been uttered, the momentum switched and the Broncos went on a stampede.

With 20 seconds left of Q3, Russell Wilson connected with Brandon Johnson for a 4-yard TD. The Bears punted their next possession away and Denver roared back on a 12-play, 70-yard drive that culminated in a Courtland Sutton score. The ensuing Chicago drive ended with a sack fumble of Justin Fields, which Jonathon Harris returned for six. The 21-point deficit was erased in about 8 minutes, and there was still time for the Bears to hand the ball over yet again after a failed 4th-and-1. One magnificent 48-yard play by Marvin Mims later, Denver were in field goal territory and Wil Lutz’s trusty boot secured an unlikely but very welcome 31-28 victory.

So, however big your team’s lead is going into the final quarter, assume nothing – and beware the Witching Hour! [ST]

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Bill and Mac: most heinous

I usually prefer to focus on the positive and the impressive but sometimes, you can’t avoid the tales of woe. So let me introduce you to the main characters of my last observation this week: Mac Jones and Bill Belichik.

On the face of it, the Patriots’ 38-3 gubbing by the 3-1 Cowboys in the late window (what is it with teams scoring 3 points this week?!) wasn’t great. Dallas took last week’s disappointing loss out on New England, who now fall to 1-3. With CeeDee Lamb catching Dak Prescott’s one passing TD and fullback Hunter Luepke running in the only score on the ground, it was again the Cowboy’s defense that starred in this one. Leighton Van Der Esch scooped up the ball for a TD after Jones had the ball stripped out by Dante Fowler, and DaRon Bland jumped a cross-field pass for another pick six (the replacement for the injured Trevon Diggs bagged another INT too). But what makes this game all the more incredible is that it’s the worst defeat Belichick has presided over in his 29 years as head coach. Wow.

Now, you don’t lose by 35 points without several things going wrong and there are many directions in which irate Pats fans can point their accusatory fingers. Some will definitely be aimed at the sieve-like offensive line, and many more at their ineffective quarterback. Jones completed just 12 of 21 pass attempts for 150 yards and turned the ball over three times, leading to 18 points for the opposition, before he was hooked late in the third quarter. His replacement, Bailey Zappe, only competed four throws, which at least makes the news that Jones will start against the Saints this week slightly more palatable.

“We obviously didn’t do much of anything well enough to be competitive tonight,” Belichick said afterwards. “I think we’re a lot better than what we showed out there tonight, but that’s what we showed. That’s what it was. We’ve got a lot of work to do to perform better.”

As the other great mind called Bill (from Bill and Ted’s Excellent Adventure) once said, “the only true wisdom consists of knowing that you know nothing”. So Bill B, forget the last 29 years and go back to the drawing board. [ST]

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PICK SIX – Week 3

It’s Tuesday so we – Shaun Blundell and Sean Tyler – are back to pick six things from the Week 3 NFL slate that caught our eye. This time, our interest was piqued by an explosive offense, a brick-wall defence, a struggling quarterback, underdogs upsetting the odds, another tight one between two one-score-game specialists and a record-breaking kicker. So let’s just crack on, shall we?

Myles in motion for dominant Browns D

Myles Garrett has dominated every game this season. On Sunday, for those of you who only judge a player by his ‘stat sheet’, he dominated there too. He sacked Ryan Tannehill 3.5 times as the Cleveland defense continued its early season form, limiting Tennessee to just 94 yards as the Browns cruised to a 27-3 win. It was a historically bad day for the Titans, who recorded their lowest offensive output since the days of the Oilers. The previous low for the Titans of Tennessee, as we know them today, was 98 yards against Jacksonville in 2006.

Derrick Henry was curtailed to 20 yards on 11 carries. The Titans managed a measly six first downs the whole game and poor punter Ryan Stonehouse had as many punts as any wide receiver had targets. The only score for the Titans came on a drive that started on the Browns’ 17-yard line and went as follows: Henry -3 yard run; Garrett sack and forced fumble -7 yards; completed pass -2 yards. It is the only time any opponent has been inside the Browns’ red zone all season and they went backwards.

Tannehill was under siege the whole time. He was sacked five times, completed 13 of 25 passes for 104 yards and never got Tennessee’s offense moving. Andre Dillard was abused all game by Garrett, Za’Darius Smith and company. And on one play, Garrett had two tight ends following him in motion across the formation in a futile attempt to block him. He continued to motion to the opposite side and in comedic fashion, the offense continued to follow. It led to a delay of game penalty against the Titans and highlighted the fear the All-Pro strikes in his opponents.

An exclamation point for Cleveland’s defense came on the first two plays of the fourth quarter, when Alex Wright and Garrett recorded sacks on consecutive plays, much to the delight of coordinator Jim Schwartz, smiling away on the sideline. This Browns defense is playing at a historic level through three weeks. They have allowed -36 rushing yards before contact this season, while the league average is +94! With the offense showing signs of life and the Browns looking competitive, maybe this is finally the year that Garrett enters the Defensive Player of the Year conversation. [SB]

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Every dog has its day

Before this weekend’s action, the Texans and Cardinals occupied the last two positions in every power ranking I saw. And while they may not be tanking as such, a successful season seemed like wishful thinking for both franchises. 

And so to Sunday. In my Yahoo! Survivor game, 25% of players picked the Jaguars to sink the 0-2 Texans, and a further 15% picked the Cowboys to see off the winless Cardinals. The betting lines reflected this consensus, with Jacksonville giving up 7.5 points and Dallas favoured by 13 on the road. And yet, both ‘dogs rose to the occasion.  

In Houston, the new kids continued to make their mark in a comfortable 37-17 win over their divisional foes. Rookie QB CJ Stroud maintained his hot start to the campaign with 280 passing yards and two touchdowns, making him only the third quarterback ever to pass for over 900 yards in their first three career games (his 906 place him 4th in the league). And don’t forget, he’s yet to throw an interception. Fellow newbie Tank Dell had five receptions for 145 yards and a TD.

Meanwhile, Arizona finally showed they can put it together for a whole game for a change, having outscored their opponents by 34 points in the first half of their previous games but losing both. In beating the Cowboys 28-16, QB Joshua Dobbs impressed with 189 yards and a TD, completed 80.9% of his passes (17 of 21) – including a 69-yard pass to rookie Michael Wilson – and set the tone on the second play of the game with a 44-yard run. Elsewhere, Matt Prater kicked a 62-yard FG, the longest we’ve seen this season so far, and Kyzir White made a red zone INT to close out the game.

So if you had either of these teams pegged as this year’s whipping boys, maybe it’s time to think again. They may be full of young and inexperienced players but they showed spirit in picking up their first wins of the season and perhaps they’re not cannon-fodder after all. In fact, if I were a gambling man, I’d wager the loser of next week’s Bears v Broncos matchup may be a better bet to make the first overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft than either Houston or Arizona. [ST]

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The Jets are too talented to not make a move, surely?

This year was supposed to be different for the Jets. They were supposed to have Aaron Rodgers leading them to success but a cruel Achilles tear later, the team is now in the hands of Zach Wilson. Their roster is too talented for this to remain the case, surely? Even against a struggling Patriots team, the Jets weren’t able to get the win.

The dreaded coach speak of “he gives us the best chance to win” was thrown out by Robert Saleh after a second consecutive loss with Wilson at the controls. It is scary to think just how bad QB Tim Boyle may be, as the only other quarterback on the depth chart. Wilson was 18 of 36 for 157 yards and no touchdowns, and took three sacks for a loss of 24 yards. Garrett Wilson led the team in receiving with five catches for 48 yards while on the ground, Dalvin Cook and Breece Hall posted 18 yards each.

Wilson didn’t turn the ball over but his day was illustrated perfectly on the Jets’ penultimate drive. Down 5 points, on a 4th-and-10 from their own 45, he completed the pass to tight end Tyler Conklin. For 2 yards, on a checkdown, with a Patriot defender right there to effectively seal the ball game for New England. Football is cruel though and there was more heartbreak for the Jets as Randall Cobb should have come down with the Hail Mary on the final play of the game to secure the unlikeliest of victories. Emphasis on the word should.

Wilson is still a developmental QB who hasn’t developed into a starting-calibre player. He’s paying the price of being overdrafted and facing the intense scrutiny of the New York market. The boo birds were out in droves on Sunday night for the franchise’s 15th consecutive loss to Bill Belichick’s team. Some teams just have your number but for the Jets, this is a nightmare they simply have to find a way out of. Teammates and coaches arguing on the sidelines in Game 3 should send warning signals through the building. GM Joe Douglas must do something.

Oh well, it’s the Chiefs up next. Maybe Carson Wentz might get yet another redemption shot? [SB]

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Kickers matt-er

With the Colts missing their starting QB Anthony Richardson, as well as PUP-list running back Jonathan Taylor (remember him?), it was going to take something special for Indy to go to Baltimore and beat the Ravens, one of only two AFC teams with a perfect record after two weeks. Back-up Gardner Minshew fought hard (227 passing yards, 1 TD), Zack Moss posted a career-high 122 rushing yards and the defense largely held Lamar Jackson and co. in check. But in the end, the difference-maker in this intriguing, attritional 22-19 overtime battle was a kicker.

If I’d said that before the game, I reckon 99% of you would’ve put this month’s mortgage or rent payment on it being the Ravens’ Justin Tucker. After all, he’s the best in the league, holds the NFL field goal record at 66 yards and has won many games in clutch moments. But on Sunday, the plaudits went to Colts kicker Matt Gay for his own clutch, record-breaking day. Even the wind and rain from the tail-end of Tropical Storm Ophelia couldn’t blow him off course.

Tucker himself missed a chance to win the game for Baltimore with 1 second left, his 61-yard attempt falling just short of the crossbar, so into OT we went. With the tension building, the teams traded three-and-outs and then both failed on 4th downs, but a 13-yard run from Moss eventually brought Indianapolis within range. Gay obliged, coolly nailing the walk-off winner from 53 yards. Even more impressively, that was his fourth successful kick from over 50 yards in the game, something never before achieved in the NFL. Earlier, he’d drilled home from 31, 54, 53 and 53, the last of which tied the game with under a minute of regulation remaining.

The former Rams kicker, acquired as a free agent in March, has now made his last seven 50-yarders and puts his success down to his ‘tunnel vision’ mentality. “You jog on, kick it and jog off,” he explained afterwards. “That’s the mindset I like to have. I don’t like to think too much about what’s going on. I’m just in blackout mode.”

With ice in his veins and former Colts QB Matt Ryan now in the commentary booth, maybe we’ve discovered Matty Ice 2.0? [ST]

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Close, but this time, no cigar

The Minnesota Vikings were 11-0 in games decided by 7 points or fewer in 2022. After another game that saw the Vikings involved in a close tussle – a 28-24 loss to the LA Chargers – their record this year drops to 0-3 in such games. 

It really does highlight the small margins by which NFL games are often decided. With just 55 ticks left on the clock, Kirk Cousins dialled up a deep ball to Jordan Addison. It looked for all the world it was going to land right in his bread basket. Chargers safety Alohi Gilman, however, had other ideas. He leaped into the air and managed to somehow get his fingertips on the ball, disrupting the potential catch. It fell incomplete, although a penalty elsewhere on the field kept the drive alive.

Three plays later, the Vikings faced 4th-and-5. Cousins zipped a pass over the middle for TJ Hockenson for 9 more yards to extend the drive again. With no timeouts remaining, the Vikes inexcusably let more than 20 seconds drain off the play clock and then called a play that appeared to cause some offensive confusion. Cousins dropped back, looked for Hockenson again but the coverage was tight, the ball was deflected and it looped up towards Kenneth Murray who made a diving interception in the end zone. On another day, maybe even just last season, it sticks in the tight end’s hands.

These two teams are always involved in one-score games so it was almost guaranteed that this contest would boil down to the final play of the game. Their victory moves the Chargers to 1-2 while the Vikings remain winless at 0-3. It is really difficult to say if either of these teams are good, bad or indifferent. What is easy to say, however, is that this is why we love the NFL because games like this are the norm every weekend. For the Vikings’ sake, they need to get on the right side of one of these close outcomes soon before the season is lost before it has truly begun. [SB]

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Miami turn it up to 10

Taking a knee to close out a big win is akin to a victory lap and usually worthy of high-fives and backslapping all round. But in the case of Miami’s 10-touchdown (yes, 10!) mauling of the Denver Broncos on Sunday, some fans might have been slightly disappointed. That’s because, had their team successfully attempted a field goal from the Broncos’ 28-yard line instead, they’d have equalled the all-time NFL record of 73 points, set by Chicago in a postseason game back in 1940.

As it was, HC Mike McDaniel didn’t want to rub salt into some very raw wounds, and his team’s 70-20 win still brought the second-highest points tally ever in the regular season (Washington hit the Giants for 72 in 1966). His team also became the first to score five rushing TDs and five receiving TDs in a game.

In a non-contest described by Broncos HC Sean Payton as “embarrassing”, Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa – the bookies’ current favourite for MVP – posted a perfect first half, completing 16 of 16 for 206 yards with two TDs and no INTs. Along with some other starters, he was pulled in the fourth quarter, so finished with ‘only’ 309 yards and four touchdown passes.

With a hugely dominant Miami offense racking up 726 total yards – the second-most in NFL history – players were literally lining up to score. No doubt, fantasy owners were rubbing their hands with glee as Raheem Mostert rushed for 82 yards and 3 TDs, and logged 60 yards and a TD through the air. Meanwhile, De’Von Achane posted 203 rushing yards with two scores, plus a further 30 yards and two TDs receiving (both from absolutely filthy no-look backwards shovel passes from Tua). On another day, Tyreek Hill’s 157 yards/1 TD, or even Chosen Anderson’s 68-yard TD, might have been newsworthy but not today.

Even without WR2 Jaylen Waddle (concussion protocol), Miami’s offense cruised to the top of the league in yards per play, yards per game and points per drive. The defense also forced multiple turnovers for the second straight game. So are they the best team in the AFC East, the conference or even the league right now? Maybe, but we should know more next week when they face the Bills, scorers of 75 points over the last two games themselves. So get your sparklers, marshmallows and hot chocolate ready, there’s gonna be fireworks! [ST]

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PICK SIX – Week 2

Welcome back to our new series, in which Shaun Blundell and Sean Tyler pick over half a dozen things from this week’s action. After Week 2, we’re unsure about the Broncos, impressed by Puka Nacua, entertained by the Bills and concerned about the QBs for the Bengals, Bears and Jets. So, without further ado, here’s our Pick Six…

Nacua looks pukka in Rams’ young offense

If you play fantasy football, then the name Puka Nacua was probably a hot commodity on the waiver wire last week. And if he’s still available in your league, he won’t be for very much longer. The fifth-round pick impressed on his debut with 10 catches for 119 yards in the Rams’ win over the Seattle Seahawks and his follow-up earned him a place in the NFL record books. Nacua hauled in 15 of his 20 targets from Matthew Stafford against the impressive 49ers defense on Sunday, totalling 147 yards. Those 15 receptions are the most by a rookie in a single game in NFL history. 

Nacua is also the first rookie to have double-digit receptions in each of his first two NFL games, and his 25 receptions so far is a new record for a rookie in his first two games – a league high held by ex-49er Earl Cooper that had been in the books for over 40 years. Nacua is on pace for 212 receptions this year, which would smash the single-season reception record by 63. Let’s pump the brakes on that one, but it certainly highlights the exceptional start he has made.

When you lack draft capital and cap space, hitting on late-round draft picks is a necessity. The Rams have possibly unearthed a real gem here in the BYU man. Nacua’s emergence is especially timely with Cooper Kupp on injured reserve with a hamstring injury. Kupp’s absence left many questions about how the Rams would start the season. Nacua is not only filling that absence, he’s thriving because of it. The question on Rams fans’ lips now will be “what might this offense look like when both get on the field?” [SB]

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Joe’s woes are a pain in the calf

Things are definitely not going to plan for the Bengals, whose second divisional loss – 27-24 to the Ravens – leaves them slumped at 0-2. With only two starters playing preseason games and franchise QB Joe Burrow easing back from injury, a slow start was inevitable. The team faced exactly the same circumstances last year and still made the AFC Championship decider so there’s no panic or overreaction… yet. Then again, only 9.6% of teams starting 0-2 since the 1970 merger have made the playoffs so it’s not ideal.

In 2022, Burrow’s issue was an appendectomy. This time, a calf strain that wiped out his training camp was clearly still a problem in the disastrous season opener (a 24-3 shellacking by Cleveland). And the Cincy offense stuttered yet again on Sunday: early in Q2, they’d gained 14 yards from six plays and had no first downs, and Burrow’s 35 passing yards at HT were actually down from last week. He did eventually find some sort of rhythm (27 of 41, 222 yards, 2 TDs) but with a red zone INT as well, it wasn’t enough.

Losing to an AFC North foe is one thing but having your franchise QB – and the league’s highest-paid player – unwilling to run in case of further injury is quite another. Despite the obvious caution, he still tweaked his calf late in the game and limped off. Even a couple of weeks out could totally scupper the season for Cincinnati, who only have Jake Browning and Will Grier as cover. Worryingly, in the post-game presser, Burrow could only muster “I don’t know”, “it’s tough to tell” and “we’ll see” answers when asked about his immediate and long-term fitness. 

If the Bengals are going to dig themselves out of this hole again, they’ll need Burrow available and back at his best. But at the moment, neither of those things looks very likely. [ST]

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Sean Payton can’t Hackett

Here’s a life lesson: if you have nothing nice to say, then don’t say anything at all. 

“One of the worst coaching jobs in the history of the NFL” – these are the words of Sean Payton, who replaced Nathaniel Hackett as head coach of the Denver Broncos this offseason. Those words may come back to bite the new HC in the backside as the Broncos slipped to 0-2, unfathomably a worse start than the team made under Hackett’s stewardship last term.

It is still early days and there are some small glimpses from which to take some optimism. Russell Wilson looks better than he did a year ago. Admittedly, that’s a low bar to cross but in the first half in particular, Wilson and the offense looked good. Marvin Mims had a breakout game, getting on the end of two deep shots and also posting a long punt return. Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton were back on the same field for what feels like the first time in forever, and Javonte Williams showed some nice bursts in the running game. A handsome lead grew, and optimism ensued. Maybe, finally, the Broncos had flipped the switch.

Unfortunately though, when up 21-3, a costly Wilson fumble changed the direction of the game. Washington would go on a 32-points-to-3 run with the Broncos defense gashed by Sam Howell through the air and Brian Robinson on the ground. The offense could not sustain drives and, despite a late field goal and Hail Mary almost getting Denver out of trouble, they fell short on the two-point attempt needed to tie the game. 

An ugly-looking trip across the country to the red-hot and explosive Dolphins is next on the schedule as the Broncos stare into an 0-3 hole. The progression between Wilson and Payton will determine whether this season is a success or not but the early returns are not encouraging in Mile High. [SB]

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Cool your jets on Zach

After a dramatic Week 1 win against the Bills, New York Jets quarterback Zach Wilson came back down to earth with Sunday’s 30-10 loss to Dallas. Sure, the highlight reel includes a 68-yard touchdown pass to namesake Garrett (much of which was YAC) in the first half and he kept things close for a while. But as the game began to unravel, so did he.

As we discussed last week, the Cowboys defense is rock solid, having allowed just one TD so far this season (the aforementioned Garrett Wilson catch-and-run). In particular, DOPY-in-waiting Micah Parsons is on fire. He wreaked havoc all day and got two of his team’s three sacks this weekend. The backup QB buckled under the pressure, completing just 12 of 27 (44.4%) for 170 yards and throwing three INTs in the fourth quarter, killing any faint hopes of a comeback.

To be fair, they weren’t the reason the Jets lost. His second and third turnovers came from blind-faith throws when the game was all but over anyway. But with no run game to share the load (Breece Hall, Dalvin Cook and Michael Carter combined for a paltry 24 yards, 12 less than Wilson himself), New York had little to offer without a mercurial QB able to weave some magic.

I don’t know what a healthy Aaron Rodgers would’ve done against this Dallas team but I’m guessing his second-half drives would’ve delivered more than one fumble, two three-and-outs and three interceptions. I also don’t know what the long-term answer at QB is but if this outing is anything to go by, it’s not Zach Wilson. Even if he isn’t terrible, he needs too much help around him to be good and yet HC Robert Saleh remains adamant that he’s rolling with the 24-year-old.

With the Patriots and Chiefs next up, let’s see how far they roll… and in which direction. [ST]

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Anything but a Fields day

The Chicago Bears felt they hit the jackpot in the draft. Number 1 overall pick in hand and their own quarterback of the future on the roster. Or so they thought…

Fields made improvements in Year 2, developing as a passer and adding an extra dimension with his ability in his legs. He rushed for over 1,100 yards a season ago but whether by choice or by coincidence, he doesn’t seem intent on rushing this campaign. Fields took six sacks against the Buccaneers on Sunday. On several of those sacks, the protection up front was solid for long enough for Fields to either try to escape or throw the ball away. However, Fields repeatedly held onto the ball too long, which allowed the defense to converge on him. 

Fields was fortunate to only commit two turnovers. He fumbled the ball twice, both of which the Bears managed to recover. He did, however, throw two interceptions with the game on the line. The ugliest-ever pick six might go to Shaq Barrett who was the recipient of the first gift. After a bit of pinball, the linebacker came down with the ball and was pushed into the end zone by the rest of the defense from the 4-yard line. (Barrett has dedicated this season to his late daughter Arrayah, who drowned in April aged two, and marked his first NFL TD by blowing a kiss to the sky so maybe it was also the most beautiful pick-six ever.) With the Bears now in desperation mode, 10 points behind, the next drive would lead to another interception on 3rd and 19 following a crippling 11-yard sack on 2nd down.

Fields has the ability to make some amazing throws to all levels of the field but he lacks any sort of consistency. Yesterday, he missed some wide-open targets that kept points off the board for the Bears. Fields is now almost 30 starts into his career so his lack of field vision is a huge concern for Chicago. The only silver lining would be that if Fields continues to be this bad, the team might have a chance to put it right at the next draft. Well, maybe. [SB]

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Normal service resumes in Buffalo

Forget Week 1’s poor showing against the Jets. The Bills are back in business and all is well in upstate New York.

In a blowout 38-10 win on Sunday evening, Buffalo absolutely suffocated the Las Vegas Raiders. A 75-yard TD drive on the opening possession was as good as it got for the Silver and Black, before it all became too easy for the Bills. They barely needed to get out of second gear all night.

Josh Allen went from four turnovers last week to completing his first 13 passes of the game this week, not missing a target till three minutes before half-time. He ended up with 31 of 37 (83.8%) for 274 yards and three TDs (and crucially, no INTs this time). His touchdown pass to Khalil Shakir was a great piece of improvisation after an abandoned scramble forced him to retreat, while the others – a gentle lob to Dawson Knox and an impressive cross-body throw to Gabe Davis – were both made on the run.

Offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey mixed in plenty of ground game and for once, it wasn’t all left to Allen to carry the load. The rushing attack contributed 183 yards, with James Cook’s career-high of 17 carries for 123 rushing yards complemented by Damien Harris (33 yards) and Latavius Murray (22 yards), both of whom trundled in for touchdowns. Even the run defense held firm, limiting the Raiders’ Josh Jacobs to -2 yards on nine carries (the lowest total by a reigning rushing champion in the Super Bowl era).

So it’s as you were, people. The Buffalo Bills are fine and should be right up there in the AFC title race come the end of the season. [ST]

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PICK SIX – Week 1

Welcome to our new series where two of the Full 10 Yards crew, Shaun Blundell and Sean Tyler, pick six (see what we’ve done there?!) talking points from the previous week’s slate to highlight and dissect. And with Week 1 of the new season now in the books, let’s jump straight in!

Drop three, pick six

Well, wouldn’t you just know it? Our opening talking point from the first game of the season – the Thursday night curtain-raiser between the upstart Lions and the defending champion Chiefs – was inspired by a pick six from Lions rookie safety Brian Branch. I don’t want to do Detroit a disservice – it was a great play and the Lions deserved the W – but it soon became apparent that the Chiefs were missing TE Travis Kelce (knee injury), not least because of the offensive weapons it left Patrick Mahomes with.

Skyy Moore dropped two targets, rookie wideout Rashee Rice dropped one and even RB Jerick McKinnon joined the party, but the major culprit was Kadarius Toney, with three drops. The butter-fingered receiver’s worst miss was in the third quarter when the ball ricocheted off his hands to Branch, who ran it back for a 50-yard score to tie the game at 14-14. Later in the quarter, Toney dropped a third down pass, forcing Kansas City to settle for a field goal, and his final whoopsy, with 2:25 remaining and the Chiefs trailing by one, saw a slingshot come through his grasp and away. A catch would have set up a game-winning FG try.

After the 21-20 loss, Toney deleted his Twitter/X account to avoid the inevitable flak for his ‘zero net gain’ stat line (one catch for 1 receiving yard, one carry for -1 rushing yards). Despite his 29.7 PFF grade, the lowest given to a receiver since 2018, his QB still had his back. Mahomes said of Toney “I have trust that he is going to be the guy that I go to in those crucial moments.” Let’s see if that’s true next week. [ST]

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Bang, bang, bang for your buck

When we talk about players celebrating a hat-trick, the focus is usually centered on someone on the offensive side of the ball. The Atlanta Falcons, however, relied on a star performance from their marquee summer acquisition to spark them to a 24-10 victory over the Carolina Panthers. Jessie Bates III, take a bow.

Fresh from an eye-popping four-year, $64 million deal in free agency, Bates wasted little time in starting to repay some of the faith his new team has placed upon him. He twice picked off rookie quarterback Bryce Young. 

The first was a classic interception from a safety. Watching the eyes of the quarterback and closing quickly on the ball, Bates beat former Falcon Hayden Hurst to the ball as he was crossing over the middle. It set the Falcons up in the red zone and four plays later, they had the lead. The second was almost a carbon copy. With a crossing route from the right-hand side of the Panthers formation, Bates again jumped the route beating Terrance Marshall to the ball. This time, it led to a field goal.

The trifecta was capped off on the next Panthers possession. Miles Sanders had seemingly ripped off a nice chunk of yardage only for Bates to punch the ball out and be credited with a forced fumble. The Falcons would recover and score a touchdown on the ensuing drive. One game, three turnovers and 17 points from those turnovers. Not a bad debut at all, sir! [SB]

**STOP PRESS** On Monday Night Football last night, the New York Jets went one better. Safety Jordan Whitehead played lights out, picking off the Bills’ Josh Allen THREE times as the Jets squeaked out a 22-16 OT win. What with that, a game-winning 65-yard punt return TD by rookie Xavier Gipson and Aaron Rodgers’ Achilles injury after just four plays, it’s a shame all five Hard Knocks episodes are now in the can.

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Tua and Tyreek rewrite records

Other than my own Bengals, the game that most intrigued me this week was the Dolphins vs the Chargers: two AFC teams with high hopes underpinned by notes of fragility and under-achievement. It turned out to be an absolute barnstormer, with Miami prevailing in a wild, come-from-behind 36-34 win, thanks in no small way to the lethal combo of Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill.

The Chargers played their part for sure but there’s no disgrace in coming up short against a Dolphins team intent on winning a shootout (their 16 explosive plays were the most by any team since 2014). In his first appearance since a Week 17 concussion, Tua silenced his doubters to the tune of 28 completions for 466 yards and 3 TDs. Two of those tuddies went to Hill – including a clutch game-winner with 1:45 left on the clock – as he amassed a staggering 215 yards from just 11 receptions. 

Rewriting the Super Bowl-era record books, Hill now has three games of 200+ yards and 2+ receiving TDs – a new NFL high – while Tua’s 466 yards were the most ever against the Chargers and the third-highest of any QB in Week 1. 

Ever-humble HC Mike McDaniel summed it all up afterwards by saying “That’s kind of what I expected to happen with the work that he (Tua) has done.” I feel “expected” may be a tad rich but Miami’s QB has certainly laid down a gauntlet to the rest of the league. [ST]

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Riddle me this

Welcome back Calvin Ridley! An almost-forgotten move due to its timing was the shrewd business the Jaguars pulled off by acquiring the former Falcons receiver. Fresh off his return from suspension following gambling misdemeanours, Ridley picked up right where he left off. 

He led the Jags in targets (11), receptions (8) and yards (101) along with a trip to pay dirt. It had been a whopping 686 days between regular season games for the receiver but he showed all of his class with some crisp route running and his elusiveness, tacking on plenty of yards after the catch.

The Jags as a whole stuttered to a win over what many presume will be a Colts team in rebuild mode. The offensive line had some issues and the run game was pedestrian at best. Maybe they should just let Trevor Lawrence air it out more? A great stat from Next Gen Stats summed it up perfectly: “Trevor Lawrence’s 18-yard TD pass to Zay Jones was one of three completions of 20+ air yards on the day. On passes over 10 air yards, Lawrence finished 8 of 11 for 147 yards and 2 TDs (+27.8% completion percentage over expected).”

Expect the Jags to get better as the season progresses. [SB]

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Dawgs unleashed

It has been a relatively quiet off season in Cleveland. After years of headline making for different reasons in years gone by, the Browns have fallen under the radar somewhat. In a division that has seen two star quarterbacks re-signed and resetting the market in the process, many tip Cleveland to occupy the AFC North cellar once again. Ja’Marr Chase may have lit the touchpaper ahead of kick-off with some ill-advised comments but Jim Schwartz and his unit served up a huge dose of humble pie to not just Chase, but to the entire Bengals offense.

The Browns brought the heat to Joe Burrow all day. The tone was set on the first play of the game with Za’Darius Smith getting his hands on the quarterback. The Browns would go on to record 10 QB hits and four tackles for loss, and were credited with two sacks. The second of those inevitably came from Myles Garrett who, along with his mates up front, had a field day against a sloppy Cincy offense.

Increased pressure up front was backed up by stellar play in the secondary. Tee Higgins was held to zero catches from eight targets. Their longest completed pass of the day went for just 12 yards to Chase, on the Bengals’ opening drive. That was on a third down play, and the Bengals would only complete one more third down from 14 attempts the rest of the way. Despite his fiery words, Chase couldn’t back it up and was held to a lacklustre 39 yards.

There is plenty for the Browns to sort out on offense but defensively, this was an unbelievably brilliant start to the campaign. [SB]

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Giants belittled by Cowboys D

At first glance, a 40-point win against the Giants in Sunday’s late game suggests that the Cowboys offense was cooking. Sure, Tony Pollard rushed well (82 yards, 2 TDs) but Dak Prescott completed just 13 of 24 passes for 143 yards and no TDs. So be in no doubt, the 40-0 drubbing of their divisional rivals was all about special teams and defense. Admittedly, Big Blue’s offense isn’t all that but take nothing away from Dallas DC Dan Quinn, who engineered the largest shutout win in franchise history.

His charges had Giants QB Daniel Jones under the cosh all night. They sacked him seven times, with Dorance Armstrong and Osa Odighizuwa bagging two each. Micah Parsons also got one to stall New York’s opening drive and that set the tone for the rest of the evening, with seven different Dallas players also posting tackles for loss. Brian Daboll’s team also coughed up three turnovers, including a blocked FG returned 58 yards for six by CB Noah Igbinoghene. Dallas led the league with 33 takeaways last season and carried on in a similar vein, with DaRon Bland’s 22-yard interception return TD giving the Cowboys a 16-0 lead in the first quarter (even though their offense had completed just one drive). Even Stephon Gilmore got an interception in his first outing in Cowboys colours.

As Parsons said after the game, “I think we made the statement that I’ve been trying to make: we’re the best defense in the NFL.” It’s only Week 1 and there’s a long way to go but so far, we’ve seen nothing to suggest that he’s wrong. [ST]

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Will Burrow’s deal reset the QB market?

Before we get completely deluged by Draft content, quarterback contracts are still a talking point in the NFL. There’s Aaron Rodgers’ pending move from Green Bay to “Gang Green”, with the finer details still being thrashed out. Then there’s Lamar Jackson, who wants out from Baltimore but no one seems to be rushing to acquire his services – not yet at least. And there are the contracts for Year 3 QBs that are up for extensions.

Having played three years in the league, the likes of Joe Burrow, the Chargers’ Justin Herbert, Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa and Jalen Hurts of the Eagles are now eligible to sort out long-term deals. The first to do so might get the best deal, as each new contract tends to gazump the last, pushing the benchmark ever higher. Yet regardless of whether his contract gets signed before or after the others, the widely held consensus is that Burrow might reset the QB market with the biggest deal ever seen in the NFL.

We know from the Bengals bigwigs the process is already in motion ahead of Burrow’s fifth-year option deadline. At the owners’ meeting in Kansas last week, Cincinnati’s Executive Vice President Katie Blackburn stated that nothing was imminent but confirmed that talks had started. The Bengals will want to know his long-term salary cap hit sooner than later, as they also have other mouths to feed, not least wide receivers Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. As Director of Player Personnel Duke Tobin stated at the NFL Combine, “Sooner is better. Maybe it’s the first piece to come, maybe it’s the last. But we’ll work towards it. We’re not going to rush the process. It’s of vital importance to us. It’s important to Joe, and we’ll work to get it accomplished.”

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There’s no doubt that Joe Burrow has earned the right to a huge deal. His rookie year was curtailed by a nasty ACL injury (the Bengals were 2-7-1 at the time) but a year later, he steered them to their first Super Bowl appearance since 1988. And in 2022, despite an emergency appendectomy during the offseason, he led Cincy’s return to the AFC Championship game and ended a 12-4 campaign with a 35 TD:12 INT ratio and a 68.3% completion rate. Over the past two seasons, only the Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes, now-retired Tom Brady and Justin Herbert have logged more passing yards, and he trailed only Mahomes and Buffalo’s Josh Allen for passing touchdowns. Having set his team’s single-season passing yard and touchdown records, he is definitely in line to land a huge contract.

So what else tells us that he’s in line for a mega-payday? Well, despite the (increasingly inaccurate and outdated) reputation for being cheapskates, the Bengals traditionally pay their QBs handsomely. Andy Dalton signed a six-year, $115m extension in 2014. Before him, Carson Palmer penned an extension worth $118m over nine years. Going back yet further to 1990, Boomer Esiason became the second-highest paid player in the league with a six-year, $16m deal (those were the days, eh?). So the precedent is there: owner Mike Brown isn’t afraid to open his wallet when it comes to his quarterbacks.

The ever-rising salary cap is another factor here. It climbed to $224.8m for the forthcoming 2023 season, up nearly $20m on 2022, and that level of increase is widely expected to continue for the rest of the decade. So if the pot of money keeps getting bigger, Cincinnati should be able to dig deeper to keep the likes of Burrow happy.

All this contract shenanigans doesn’t happen in a vacuum so we can’t ignore the current QB market either. In recent weeks, we’ve seen Seattle’s Geno Smith pen a three-year, $105m deal ($35m/year) and Daniel Jones sign a four-year, $160m contract ($40m/year) with the Giants. At the top of the current list, Aaron Rodgers is the only NFL quarterback with an average salary over $50m a year. Sure, Mahomes signed the biggest total contract ($450m over 10 years) but he still trails Rodgers ($50.2m), Russell Wilson in Denver ($49m), Arizona’s Kyler Murray ($46.1m) and Deshaun Watson in Cleveland ($46m) when it comes to annual salary.

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To recap, there’s a strong argument for believing that Joey B is about to recalibrate the QB market. His performances over the last two years warrant it. The Bengals always pay their QBs. The size of other recent deals is on the rise, as is the salary cap. Everything suggests he’s in line to receive for a historic pile of moolah. How historic? Well, Yahoo Sports’ Charles Robinson states, “I’ve had a chance to talk to people now, and they’re already saying Burrow is going to get $55m. He might even get $6om.” Cap expert Andre Perotta suggested eight years/£408m ($51m/year). And most recently, Brad Spielberger of Pro Football Focus projected a four-year deal worth $214m, which works out at a benchmark-setting annual salary of $53.5m.

But yet… There’s just something niggling away at the back of my mind that says “nope, he’s not going to top the list”. So why am I thinking that?

Well, for one, I’ve seen that Spotrac projects Burrow to earn around $44m/year, based on his current market value. I actually think that undersells him a bit, but I can still see something under the magic 50-mark being possible.

My sense is that Burrow is a shrewd chap. I’m not expecting the lad who attended high school in Athens, Ohio, to offer Cincinnati a home-town discount and leave millions on the table. But like TB12 before him, he could be open to a more team-friendly deal – one that helps the Bengals retain Chase and Higgins (a free agent after next season), as well as Logan Wilson, DJ Reader and others with contract negotiations on the horizon. By his own admission, Burrow sees his Super Bowl window as his “entire career”, he wants to stay a Bengal and wants HC Zac Taylor to be there for the duration too.

Ja’Marr Chase himself said, “At the end of the day, I don’t think Joe is really too worried about how much money he’s going to make because he’s already making a tremendous amount. But it’ll all work out. I think Joe knows how he wants to set up his contract to keep some of his weapons around him. And I think that’s the biggest part for him.” These sentiments were echoed by Tobin, who told The Athletic that Burrow is aware of how his contract will impact the rest of the team. “I think Joe understands better than most people. That’s what makes him a great player. Joe sees the big picture.”

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Heaven only knows what the numbers will be but the quotes from Chase and Tobin give me faith that on-field success outweighs hard cash. He can still “get his bag”, as they say, but not at the expense of the rest of the roster. First and foremost, #9 wants to win games, division titles, conference crowns and Super Bowls. I’m not suggesting his next deal follows in the footsteps of Tom Brady, whose biggest-ever contract was his two-year, $50m deal with the Buccaneers. After all, Burrow deserves to be paid what he’s worth – but there are ways and means to do so that suit both team and player.

Like an incentive-based deal, for example. With the Bills, Josh Allen chose to sign a below-market deal of $43m/year, but it was incentive-based, reducing the cap hit. Mahomes’ deal is also loaded with annual incentives, including $1.25m a year for reaching the Super Bowl and $1.25m for winning the league MVP title (so far, so good!). Something similar might work for Joey B; after all, he thinks his team will be contenders for years to come if he can keep the band together. Being locked in for a decade like Mahomes might not be ideal but a long(ish) contract also makes sense. It’ll mean other quarterbacks will eventually pass him in annual salary, making it increasingly good value for the team over time, and it’ll give them some wiggle room should more accounting gymnastics be required.

So after all this to-ing and fro-ing, where am I landing? I’m thinking six years (the same as Allen, less than Mahomes), which is long enough to allow time for some mid-contract restructuring. And I’m thinking $288 million (a fair way behind Mahomes in total contract value but above everyone else) could swing it, which equates to $48 million/year (more than Mahomes, Allen, Watson and Murray but below Rodgers and Wilson). Enough to set you, your kids and your grandkids up (very comfortably) for life, but not a figure that sets new precedents.

I’m sure it can be done with a bit of give and take on both sides. Let’s see if it comes to pass.

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Pull yer finger out! Five teams snoozing through free agency

If you’ve spent the NFL Free Agency period refreshing Twitter every five minutes, waiting to see if your favourite team has signed that coveted WR1 or retained their in-demand cornerback, you’ll have come across the same names time and time again.

The Dolphins have signed or retained 15 players, including David Long, Mike White and Jalen Ramsey. The Texans are suddenly everyone’s destination of choice, with a staggering 18 players (Devin Singletary, Robert Woods, Dalton Schultz and Jimmy Ward among them) putting pen to paper. And the Raiders have seen 21 guys sign or re-sign, from Jermaine Eluemenor, Jakobi Meyers and OJ Howard to Jimmy G.

But what about the other end of the spectrum? Which teams are keeping their eyes shut, their fingers in their ears and their chequebooks in their pockets? Here are my top five teams that need to wake up, smell the coffee and get in the game before the cupboard is bare.

Los Angeles Rams

Current cap space (courtesy of Over the Cap): $11.5 million

Last season, the Rams suffered a major hangover, crashing from Super Bowl glory to a lacklustre 5-12 record and third place in the NFC West. After years of giving away draft picks like candy and taking dead money hits, the chickens have finally come home to roost. The likes of Aaron Donald, Cooper Kupp and Matt Stafford don’t come cheap so it’s time to tighten the belt. Even cavalier GM Les Snead has admitted that “Our DNA is to attack, to hit the gas, but we’re going to hit the brakes a little bit.”

Now, I’m no driving instructor but I think they’ve not so much dabbed the brakes as done a full-on emergency stop. The team have many holes to fill, not least across their defence and yet, at the time of writing, the free agency frenzy seems to have completely bypassed Inglewood, California. In trading enigmatic CB Jalen Ramsey to Miami, they got tight end Hunter Long (one career reception) and a 2023 3rd round draft pick back in exchange, and they re-signed guard Coleman Shelton. And that’s it.

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In contrast, they’ve needed a revolving door for everyone shipping out. As well as Ramsey, who was always going to move on for financial reasons, they’ve lost QB Baker Mayfield, WR Brandon Powell, CB David Long, safety Nick Scott, punter Riley Dixon and kicker Matt Gay. Linebackers Bobby Wagner and Leonard Floyd were also released. We all know that the front office staff are frantically trying to balance the books, but those last two moves in particular seem a little premature. Surely they could’ve waited and seen the lay of the land before letting players of such calibre just walk?

Maybe their limited cap space is hindering their approach but the absence of a first round pick in the draft (yet again) must be a catalyst to do something in free agency, surely?

Green Bay Packers

Current cap space: $22.4 million

As another team that fell from grace last year (8-9, third place in the NFC North), you’d have thought the Packers might have been a bit more active in recent days too. Franchise QB Aaron Rodgers emerged from his darkness retreat with a strange compulsion to pack his things after 15 years and move to the New York Jets, so at least that question has been answered. But it leaves Green Bay with Jordan Love under center. The young QB has spent the last three years waiting in the wings, with just one start to his name, so to say he’s an unknown quantity is an understatement of epic proportions.

The Packers have managed to retain the services of veteran linebacker Justin Hollins, safety Rudy Ford and the Swiss Army knife that is All-Pro cornerback/kick returner Keisean Nixon. But the only players moving to Wisconsin so far are 49ers safety Tarvarius Moore (who was injured all last season) and Rams long snapper Matt Orzech. Let’s face it, however desperate you are for new blood, that’s unlikely to set Twitter on fire.

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Worryingly, there has been more traffic heading in the other direction. The biggest red flag is the departure of Allen Lazard, who has shown Rodgers the way out with a $44 million move to the Jets. Robert Tonyan returns to his native Illinois as the Bears’ new tight end, while defensive linemen Jarran Reed and Dean Lowry have left for Seattle and Minnesota respectively.

So what should they be doing? Well, filling the Lazard- and Tonyan-shaped holes seems like a good place to start, as Love will need more weapons than Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson to aim for. Should fellow free agents Randall Cobb and Marcedes Lewis also move on, the team will have lost those responsible for over 40% of their receptions, receiving yards and TD catches from last year. Yikes.

Safety Adrian Amos and kicker Mason Crosby may yet find new homes as unrestricted free agents too, so more gaps across the roster are expected. You have the most available cap space of our five teams here so get to it, Cheeseheads!

Los Angeles Chargers

Current cap space: $16.1 million

Every August, we’re told that this is going to be the Chargers’ year… and every January, we confirm that it wasn’t. So you’d have thought that to change the tide, Rams GM Tom Telesco and HC Brandon Staley would have spent March wheelin’ and dealin’ like their lives depended on it.

Well, not really. Much of their work to date has been spent restructuring the contracts of Joey Bosa, Khalil Mack, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, which did at least save them a cool $40 million in cap space. They also re-signed some of their own, including backup QB Easton Stick, OT Trey Pipkins, DL Morgan Fox, punter JK Scott and TE Donald Parham Jr.

The only guy to come through the “in” door so far is veteran Minnesota linebacker Eric Kendricks. Sure, the former All-Pro can replace Drue Tranquill – off to pastures new with the Chiefs – and help with Kenneth Murray’s development but that’s just the tip of the iceberg.

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Somehow, CBS gave the Chargers’ efforts to date an A- grade but I’m unconvinced. As well as the lack of newcomers, star running back Austin Ekeler has been given permission to seek a trade after extension talks hit the buffers. And safety Nasir Adderley’s retirement also needs addressing. I’d like to think the Bolts might use some of their $16 million to pursue someone like John Johnson, recently released by Cleveland, but they’ll have to be quick – they may face competition from the likes of Cincinnati.

Talking of which…

Cincinnati Bengals

Current cap space: $17 million

Weirdly, I’ve seen the Bengals featured in an article about teams that are smashing free agency and even PFF gave them an A- grade but as a Cincy fan, I couldn’t disagree more.

One of the widely expected departures, LB Germaine Pratt, did not come to pass as feared, thanks to the lure of $20 million over three years. But the reigning AFC North champions couldn’t hang on to either of their starting safeties: Jessie Bates heading to Atlanta wasn’t news, but Vonn Bell joining Carolina came as more of a shock. Furthermore, running back Samaje Perine opted to move to Denver and TE Hayden Hurst followed Bell to the Panthers.

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In response, they did fill Bell’s shoes with the versatile Nick Scott from the Rams, and a few depth pieces were retained or added here and there (guards, punt returner, long snapper, etc). And then there was the big one: LT Orlando Brown Jr coming over from conference rivals Kansas City for “just” $64 million. While not elite, he’s still a notable upgrade from Jonah Williams, who would’ve been shuffled over to the right side. However, this acquisition immediately triggered a trade request from Williams’ camp. 

So, in summary, the Bengals have gained a solid blindside tackle to protect Joe Burrow but will now need to upgrade at RT. They don’t have any tight ends of note under contract, now that recent target Foster Moreau has left the game after a cancer diagnosis. And their sparse RB room is still dominated by Joe Mixon, who many believe isn’t worthy of his $12 million cap hit. (And I won’t entertain the Zeke Elliott rumours unless he signs on the dotted line.)

So it’s high time Cincinnati made some moves before there are no options left. Right tackle, tight end and running back remain the glaring holes, while another safety and corner wouldn’t hurt. Some will come in the draft, of course, but securing another free agency vet or two before then would enable them to go ‘best player available’ to a degree. So watch out for movement on Vikings TE Irv Smith, Packers safety Adrian Amos and even Kansas RB Clyde-Edwards Hilaire in the coming days and weeks.  

Baltimore Ravens

Current cap space: $6.7 million

Our last “get a move on” candidate is another AFC North team: the Ravens. Of course, one of the league’s most compelling narratives in recent weeks has been about the future of franchise QB Lamar Jackson. Having been unable to reach a long-term deal, he’s been given the non-exclusive franchise tag, which will cost Baltimore $32.4 million (nearly 15% of their total salary cap). It also means they can match or exceed any offers from other teams or let him go for two 1st round picks. And the superstar QB has indicated that he’s ready to fly the nest.

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But it seems the quarterback situation has hamstrung the team so much that they’ve been unable to do any other business. Indeed, Baltimore remain the only one of the league’s 32 teams not to have brought in anyone new at all. Sure, they’ve retained running back Justice Hill, cornerback Trayvon Mullen and safety Geno Stone, all on one-year deals, but that’s not going to cut the mustard. In the other column, guard Ben Powers (who allowed just one sack last year), safety Chuck Clark (traded for a 7th round pick in 2024) and TE Josh Oliver have left the building.

Maybe they can find a way to beef up their receiver room, especially with Rashod Bateman coming off foot surgery? (Even Marlon Humphrey has been tweeting that OBJ should become a Raven.) Replacing free agent corner Marcus Peters might also be prudent.

Either way, having played on the franchise tag last year, the Jackson saga has dragged on for over two years now and it’s impacting Baltimore’s ability to make other moves. The Ravens have shown that they are open for business but alas, no-one’s buying at the moment. But with only five draft picks this year, they can’t do much to boost that roster until someone comes calling for a former league MVP gunslinger. And time is ticking away…

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NFL Halloween Special

We’re in Week 8 of the NFL season and it’s also Halloween weekend. So that feels as good a time as any to take stock and assess how everyone’s doing. Who’s scaring the living daylights out of the opposition? Who is spooking us out with their unexpected success? Who’s full of tricks and treats? For a bit of fun, I’m seeing which costume some of our favourite players and coaches should be dressing up in this weekend…

WEREWOLF – Carson Wentz

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On a normal Sunday afternoon, one particular quarterback is a mild-mannered individual and doesn’t really get – or deserve – much of our attention. But at night, under the bright lights of a primetime night game, he’s a man possessed, a beast howling at the full moon. And I’m talking about Washington’s Carson Wentz.

Wentz’s all-round stats are fairly middle of the road so far. After six games, he’s 18th in passing yards and 9th in touchdown passes, and he has thrown the fourth-most interceptions. But back in Week 6, on Thursday Night Football, the Commanders beat the Chicago Bears 12-7. As the score suggests, it was an absolute dog of a game and Wentz only mustered 12 of 22 for a measly 99 yards. However, don’t let that take away from the fact that the victory took Wentz’s record on TNF to 7-0: that’s the best Thursday night stats across any career in NFL history!

His previous six Ws all came while at Philadelphia, with whom he beat the Giants (x3), Jets, Panthers and Packers – averaging over 240 yards and boasting an impressive 15:2 touchdown to interception ratio. So Carson Wentz is the GOAT (of Thursday Night Football). Barking.

WIZARD – Joe Burrow

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The Cincinnati offense got off to a slow start this year, dropping to 0-2 with an all-new O-line that needed time to gel and a quarterback recovering from an urgent off-season appendectomy. But the 4-3 Bengals have taken four wins from the last five, and are now starting to look more like last year’s model than the less-impressive 2019 and 2020 editions.

The latest two-game spell, in which they scored 65 points against the Saints and Falcons, has seen Burrow in magical form, going 62 of 79 (78.4%) for 781 yards, six passing touchdowns and two rushing scores. Four of those passing TDs went for over 30 yards, with two going for 60.

Like a professor at Hogwarts, one flick of Burrow’s wand seems to make amazing things happen at the moment, so let’s see what sorcery he can provide against divisional rivals Cleveland on Monday’s Halloween Night special. He could conjure up another high-scoring win or it could all go up in a big cloud of smoke now that Ja’Marr Chase is out with a fractured hip.

ZOMBIE – Nathaniel Hackett

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Poor old Nathaniel. Everyone has such high hopes for Denver this year, with their high-octane attack being rounded out with the arrival of Seattle QB Russell Wilson in a blockbuster trade. But things have not gone well and, at the time of writing, there’s a real chance they could fall to 2-6 with a loss to the Jaguars at Wembley today.

Hackett is an offensively minded coach, having been an OC at Green Bay, Buffalo and today’s opponents Jacksonville, yet his offense has spluttered and fizzled. He’s taken stick for bad clock management (I wonder if he remembered to change his clocks last night) and his team rank dead last in points scored per game.

Broncos GM George Paton publicly gave his “100% support” a few days ago but more worryingly, CEO Greg Penner stopped short of guaranteeing the under-fire first-time HC will see the season out. Unless things turn round dramatically, Hackett feels like a dead man walking.

GHOST – Micah Parsons

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If you’re an opposing HC or OC, the last thing you want to see is Micah Parsons appearing out of nowhere to take your QB down. The Dallas Cowboy won Defensive Rookie of the Year in 2021 and earned First-Team All-Pro and Pro Bowl honors. His speed and strength helped him tally 13 sacks, 30 QB hits, 20 TFLs, three forced fumbles and three passes defended last years, and he’s already on pace to improve all those marks this year, with eight sacks, 14 QB hits, nine TFLs, two forced fumbles and two passes defended in just seven games. The guy’s a banshee.

His positional versality means that Parsons has a spooky habit of ghosting in undetected. This weekend, the interior linebacker goes in search of Bears rockslinger Justin Fields, the most-sacked QB in the league (27 in seven games). I have a feeling Fields will be haunted by Parsons all night.

DR FRANKENSTEIN – Brian Daboll

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There’s no doubt that Brian Daboll, the first-year Head Coach of the New York Giants, has had a monster start to the season. After the departures of GM Dave Gettleman and HC Joe Judge, it seemed like the former Bills OC was inheriting a bit of a mess. And yet he’s managed to take all the disparate components that were lying about and cobble them into a 6-1 team, their best start in 13 years. Other than Saquon Barkley, the cast is hardly stellar – Daniel Jones, Sterling Sheppard, Darius Slayton, Richie James, Daniel Bellinger – and yet he’s made the whole noticeably greater than the sum of its parts

Admittedly, he didn’t have to do much to be an improvement on Judge, but it appears his communication and relationship-building skills lie at the heart of the team’s transformation. Remember, this franchise went 4-13 last year, their fifth straight season with double-digit losses, and finished dead last in the NFC East.

With four 4th-quarter comebacks under his belt already, he’s definitely given this corpse of a franchise a jolt. No wonder he’s second favourite in the Coach of the Year stakes, just behind the (unbeaten) Eagles’ Nick Sirianni.

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Five guys named woe

Whether you’re a fan of the NFL as a whole or more of a Fantasy Football aficionado, chances are you want to see the stars of the game perform well. You want the best players to fill the highlight reel week after week but inevitably, sometimes, they struggle.

In contrast to my last article about players who are exceeding our expectations, let’s take a look at a few players who are currently having some problems early doors and how they might get out of their funks.

Matthew Stafford

The issue: Throwing interceptions

Following a 24-9 loss to the San Francisco 49ers on MNF, the Los Angeles Rams are 2-2 through four games for the first time in the Sean McVay era. Sure, the Niners D looked pretty stout but the Rams offense was also culpable. All three of their red zone trips resulted in nothing more than field goals and inside the 20, Matt Stafford went 1-of-6 for -2 yards. Yikes! He was also sacked seven times and threw a game-sealing pick-six. All “self-inflicted wounds” according to McVay.

The costly interception means that Stafford now has a league-high six, after throwing five in the first two weeks against the Bills (3) and the Falcons (2). In addition, after throwing a scoring pass in every game last season, up to and including the Super Bowl, Stafford has played back-to-back TD-free games for the first time since 2016. Not good numbers for a guy who signed a four-year, $160 million extension this offseason.

In Stafford’s defence, his O-line is populated with back-ups and stand-ins. There’s nothing happening in the run game (Cam Akers had 13 yards in eight rushes on Monday). And his wideouts aren’t getting open (Allen Robinson had two catches from six targets for a paltry seven yards in the same game). All this means he’s trying to force-feed Cooper Kupp. Kupp had 14 catches on 19 targets for 122 yards on MNF; no other WR had more than two catches. But telegraphing everything to his WR1, even when double-teamed in tight windows, means opposing defensive backs are filling their boots.

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How to fix it: Spread the targets out

McVay and Stafford need to put their heads together to sort out this misfiring offense. I think it starts with bringing Akers, Robinson et al into the game more, rather than relying on Kupp. Stafford is a good QB on a team chock-full of stars so they just need to let the others shine, starting against Dallas on Sunday.

Melvin Gordon III

The issue: Fumbling the ball

Gordon’s bout of butter-fingers has hit the headlines this year. He’s had four fumbles in five games so far this season and, with a drop in the final game of last year, his current streak is five drops in six. And it’s costing his team points.

His first drop of the current campaign came in Denver’s opener against Seattle, when he tried to stretch to convert a 4th-and-1 on the 1-yard line. The turnover was converted into a TD by the Seahawks, in a game they won by a point. He then had two fumbles in a loss to the 49ers in Week 3 and his most recent misdemeanour was on Sunday against the Raiders, which Amik Robertson took 68 yards back to the house.

Gordon has actually had an issue with ball security for a while now. He had three fumbles last year, and four in each of the two seasons prior to that, so that’s 15 in three-and-a-bit seasons.

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How to fix it: Don’t overthink it

Some of this is just down to bad luck. However you protect the ball, it will pop out or get punched away from time to time. The trick now is to put this latest run of the jitters behind him, and play with confidence and freedom. With Javonte Williams going down with a season-ending knee injury last week, the pressure to put it right is on but at east Gordon posted an error-free game against Indy on Monday night.

Justin Fields

The issue: Not throwing the ball

It seems that Justin Fields, the Chicago Bears QB, either doesn’t like throwing passes or his coaches don’t trust him to. OK, he’s a young player in a new offense but among QBs who have played four games, he has the fewest pass attempts (67), completions (34) and touchdown passes (2). He hasn’t thrown for a TD since Week 1 and his passing yards per game have yet to exceed 174; they even dipped as low as 70. And he’s only completed more than 50% of his passes once, leaving him with the worst completion percentage among all starting QBs in the league (50.7%).

The Bears’ 23-20 win over the Houston Texans on Sunday exemplifies his struggles perfectly. Fields completed eight of 17 passes (47.1%) for 106 yards, took five sacks and threw two interceptions. He himself said he “played like trash” afterwards.

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How to fix it: Quicker decision making

Fields could certainly extend plays while at Ohio State. He also takes his time to throw with this Bears team too but with NFL defences hunting him down, hanging on to the ball too long isn’t a good idea. It would certainly help if he had a better supporting cast than just Darnell Mooney. Until that changes, or Fields finds a way to get the ball out quicker, Chicago will continue to lean on the ground game in general, and Khalil Herbert in particular. Let’s see if anything changes in their divisional match at Minnesota in Week 5.

Joe Mixon

The issue: Rushing inefficiency

Last year, even behind a “sub-optimal” O-line, the Cincinnati RB rushed for 13 touchdowns and racked up 1,205 yards (4.1 average), the third-highest across the NFL. This year, with a revamped line, the offense as a whole has started slowly but is beginning to pick up. But something’s still not right with the running game.

Mixon is just not finding the lanes. So far this year, he’s had 82 rushing attempts – second only to Saquon Barkley’s 84 – so his 224 yards (21st in the league) is purely down to volume. According to The Athletic’s Paul Dehner Jr., his average of 2.7 yards per carry places him dead last out of 35 eligible RBs with a mininum of 35 carries, almost half a yard behind the second worst (Austin Ekeler, 3.1). He’s also 35th out of 35 in a host of other metrics including rush success percentage, yards after contact per attempt, PFF run grade and rushing expected points added. However you measure it, it isn’t great.

Sure, the run blocking hasn’t been great yet but Mixon isn’t making the most of what is available to him either. He’s not running downhill, but instead tries to skirt around the edges. He’s always stutter-stepping and cutting rather than just getting his head down and powering forward. And he gets hit behind the line of scrimmage with alarming regularity. Many fans have noticed “tells” in his pre-snap stance as to whether he’s going to be handed the ball or not, and it sounds like opposition defenses know them too.

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How to fix it: O-line cohesion

Mixon, 26, isn’t running out of tread quite yet, and he’s had peaks and troughs in rushing efficiency throughout his pro career. I think his current struggles are more about operating behind an O-line with four new players who are taking time to gel. Once they do, they should create the channels for #28 to exploit, but let’s face it, we’re into Week 5… so it’s high time. To expedite this process, Mixon called a meeting with his blockers this week, to work on their chemistry and find ways to get back to last season’s form. I’m just not holding my breath this week: the Bengals will probably lean on their aerial attack on Sunday night at the Baltimore Ravens, who have the worst passing defense in the league (giving up 315 passing yards a game).

Chase Claypool

The issue: The scheme

Pittsburgh’s Chase Claypool is a 6’4” vertical threat but through four games, he’s had just 11 receptions for 79 yards. His 7.2 yards per catch is the equal-lowest of all WRs playing four games (tied with Tampa Bay’s Russell Gage), and that figure wasn’t helped by a Week 4 performance in which he had no targets at all. Pretty poor all round.

To be fair to Claypool (and maybe a bit harsh on his QB), Mitch Trubisky has been the signal caller for three-and-a-half of those games. But Claypool isn’t the sort who does his damage near the line of scrimmage, the environment where Trubisky likes to operate. The guy is more of a downfield threat.

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How to fix it: Let Pickett loose

I suspect Claypool’s numbers will start to improve now that Kenny Pickett is under center. From what we saw of the rookie QB during preseason and in half a game last week, we should start to see less dink-and-dunk football, and a bit more explosive, down-the-field offense from the Steelers. Pickett has toughness and timing, and it feels like he could have the necessary leadership qualities to rally his troops, so having the newbie slinging the rock should play (literally) right into Claypool’s hands. They may be playing catch-up for much of the time against the Bills this weekend so let’s see if Chase is on the case.