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PICK SIX – Week 11

Returning to pick six more talking points from the latest week of NFL action, Shaun Blundell and Sean Tyler discuss the Jaguars and Bills rebounding nicely, a banged-up Geno Smith, the faltering Chargers and the charging Lions, plus an intriguing Monday Night matchup between the top seeds in each conference.

Welcome back Trevor

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have been thrilled to deliver an offensive breakout when putting divisional rivals Tennessee to the sword. Despite their positive record, the Jags have stumbled on the offensive side of the ball for weeks now and were smarting from the beating they took at the hands of the 49ers last weekend. That can now be relegated to being “old news” after this week’s 34-14 win.

Trevor Lawrence looked composed and eliminated the mistakes that had been so costly last week. He didn’t turn the ball over and completed 75% of his passes for 262 yards and a couple of touchdowns. It was a particularly nice day for Calvin Ridley who was the recipient of both touchdown tosses. His 103 yards marks the third time he has reached three figures during the campaign but was the first time since early October.

The first Ridley touchdown was a beauty. He faded to the back corner of the end zone and Lawrence put the ball right on him. The sideline, however, was not Ridley’s friend and he had to show great footwork to get both feet down just inside the playing surface. The second was a similar concept via play action from the signal caller.

Lawrence also found success in the rushing game, again finding a pair of scores. He scrambled in from 9 yards to cap the opening drive of the third quarter and scored from 5 yards out in the fourth. The rest of the ground game saw a committee approach, with 30 totes of the rock divided between the three running backs. It complemented an all-round display that the Jags have been craving for weeks.

The defense continues to play at a decent level. They limited the Titans to just two of seven on third down plays and shut down Derrick Henry and the running game. We said last week that the Jaguars will need to raise their game to be considered a real threat come January. The Titans certainly aren’t the level of competition they will be expecting to come up against but as a tune-up game, this ticked the boxes nicely. [SB]

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Chargers gonna charger

LA Chargers fans start each season with optimism and belief. “This will be our year”, they say, every single time, but it never is. Their team either underwhelms or the wheels fall off completely. This year is no exception. As ever, they have the personnel on offense (Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler) plus an expensive defense containing Derwin James Jr., Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack, yet 2023 is turning into another wobbly wheel kind of season.

Los Angeles now sit at 4-6, 13th in the AFC, and their chances of making the playoffs in a hyper-competitive conference are fading fast. The Brandon Staley era has reached a critical point and one suspects the next seven games (if not the next couple) might determine if his seat becomes too hot to return to next year. He was hired for his defensive knowledge yet his team consistently ranks among the worst in the league in points allowed (29th, 21st and 24th since 2020). In Sunday’s 23-20 loss to a poor Packers team, the unit continued to be the Achilles heel. Jordan Love was gifted the first 300-yard passing day of his career and until then, Green Bay had the second-longest active streak (27 games) without reaching that benchmark. 

Inevitably, there were mistakes, like a huge pass interference call against Asante Samuel Jr. that handed the Packers a first down in their game-winning drive. And there were injuries: a tearful DE Joey Bosa left the field on a cart in the first quarter with an ankle injury. It wasn’t all plain sailing on offense either. The usually reliable Keenan Allen dropped two potential TD passes while Austin Ekeler fumbled inside the 5. The Chargers came into this game with the second-best red-zone efficiency in the league but went 1-for-4 where it mattered most.

Of course, there were a few bright spots too. Tight end Stone Smartt rumbled in from 51 yards for his first career TD while Khalil Mack secured two sacks (11 for the season). Yet the Chargers still squandered opportunities and lost another one-score game. Five of their six losses have now been by three points or fewer and they’ve yet to beat a team over .500.

Having failed to win a division title since 2009, we’ve been here many times before, only this time, ownership might have seen enough. The franchise has only fired one coach during a season but Staley is doing his best to be the second. With a league-worst pass defense, it’s only fair that reporters question his play-calling in post-game pressers but he still defends himself to the hilt, albeit in an increasingly irritated way. Well, the Baltimore Ravens, the league’s second-highest scoring offense, come to SoFi Stadium this Sunday so let’s see what he has to say after that – if he’s still here, that is. [ST]

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Seahawks out on a limb

Geno Smith had an up-and-down day as the Seahawks let a lead slip against the LA Rams in what could be a costly 17-16 defeat. As seems to be the recent pattern, the Seattle offense started hot with Geno orchestrating an 88-yard touchdown drive. It culminated in an 8-yard toss to DK Metcalf on a simple slant route down low. The offense continued to move the ball, posting field goals on its next two drives. Those three possessions accumulated 193 yards of total offense; the next seven yielded just 38 more.

To be fair to Geno, though, he was absent for a couple of those drives. A big hit from Aaron Donald put him on the sidelines, forcing Drew Lock into action. It was a complete and utter disaster. His final stat line was a measly two completions for 3 yards from his six passing attempts, along with an interception. The play, an underthrown deep shot for Tyler Lockett, breathed further life into the Rams’ comeback. When Geno exited the game, the scoreboard read 16-7 in favour of Seattle. He returned after that interception with the Seahawks down by a point and just 1:31 on the clock.

He had “convinced” Pete Carroll that he was able to go back in the game and immediately showed he had enough arm strength. He connected with his favourite duo, hitting Tyler Lockett for 13 yards and then DK Metcalf for 21 yards, moving the Seahawks into field goal range. A helmet malfunction then led to a poor play call as, rather than throwing again to make the field goal attempt more manageable, Seattle elected for a run that only gained 2 yards. A spike later and it was all there for last week’s hero Jason Myers to take the glory again. Alas, he pushed the FG attempt wide to the right from 55 yards away.

The Seahawks have a rough schedule ahead – two games with the 49ers along with contests against the Cowboys and Eagles – so this loss could be a big one. They need to find consistency as these patchy performances are becoming all too common. What is abundantly clear is that Geno’s arm better be OK because if it isn’t, it’s Drew Lock season and you may as well stick a fork in them now. [SB]

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Lions taking pride in success

Only four teams – the Browns, Texans, Jaguars and Lions – have never reached the Super Bowl but if the season ended today, all four would qualify for the postseason. Among them, Detroit have never won the NFC North nor hosted a playoff game at Ford Field so the fact that they are 8-2 for the first time since 1962 is mightily impressive.

You’ve got a heart of stone if you’re not enjoying what’s going on in the Motor City, where Dan Campbell is among the front-runners for Coach of the Year and his team have become one of this season’s feel-good stories. On Sunday, stunned by four turnovers (including three INTs by Jared Goff), they looked out of sync and trailed the Chicago Bears by 12 points with four minutes left. For context, teams down by at least 10 points with four minutes remaining were 0-83 before Sunday.

The Lions defense allowed their opponents 334 yards and 25 first downs but tightened up just in time to let their offensive colleagues stage an improbable comeback. Goff suddenly rallied, leading his team to 17 points in the final quarter to salvage a 31-26 win, with David Montgomery nudging Detroit in front with a 1-yard TD run with just 29 seconds remaining. A walk-off strip-sack safety by Aidan Hutchinson sealed the deal, spoiling Justin Fields’ return from injury.

Detroit join the Eagles and Ravens as the only teams with at least eight wins on the board and they still have four winnable division games to come, plus the Saints, Broncos and Cowboys. They have long been known for having a soft underbelly but this was exactly the type of come-from-behind, never-say-die victory that will see the new-look, knee-biting Lions progress well into the postseason. And you certainly can’t begrudge their long-suffering fans the chance to experience that for a change. [ST]

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Chiefs stutter while Eagles soar

A Super Bowl rematch months in the making played out on Monday Night Football, but the result this time was different. The Eagles improve to an NFL-best 9-1 record while the Chiefs join a cluster of AFC teams with three defeats, throwing the conference race up in the air.

It was an all-too-familiar tale for Kansas City as their once-potent offense failed to ignite once more. A comfortable 10-point lead at the half was not enough as their six second-half possessions resulted in four punts and two turnovers (one on downs). The receiving core is a real concern as we head towards the postseason.

Marques Valdes-Scantling will be the name getting most criticism after a key drop on what would have been a potentially game-winning touchdown in the fourth quarter. A dime was tossed by Patrick Mahomes as MVS flew passed Bradley Roby from the slot but he couldn’t reel the pass in. It completed a miserable night for the group as Justin Watson finished as KC’s leading receiver with just 53 yards.

The Chiefs defense once again held up its end of the bargain, limiting Jalen Hurts to just 150 yards through the air. It wasn’t enough though. The Eagles have become masters of winning games despite not playing particularly well and this was no different. Two Hurts rushing touchdowns, including the now seemingly obligatory 1-yarder, helped the Eagles complete the comeback and take the spoils 21-17.

The Eagles appear to be a class above in the NFC. You could make a case for the Lions or 49ers but week in and week out, it feels as though Philly will find a way (how on earth did they lose to Zach Wilson though?). The Chiefs, on the other hand, are heading for uncharted waters where the AFC may not run through Arrowhead for a change. One thing is for certain: they need to get this offense firing if they are going to be a serious threat to the Eagles should there be another rematch in a couple of months’ time. [SB]

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Brady’s bunch back on track

Last week, Buffalo’s offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey was fired and quarterback Josh Allen admitted “our backs are against the wall, the clock’s ticking.” Well, just a few days into Joe Brady’s spell as interim OC, the Bills saw off the Jets 32-6 to post their first win in three weeks. Those 32 points were the most allowed by the Jets since 2021.

After an understandably slow start, with three field goals and a punt in their first four possessions, the offense came alive. Allen (275 yards, 3 TDs) hit five straight completions for 145 yards and two TDs, including an 81-yard bomb to Khalil Shakir. The win came despite more Bills’ defenders landing on the treatment table. With three starters already on IR, corners Dane Jackson and Taron Johnson both left the game with head injuries, and safety Taylor Rapp sustained a worrying neck injury. At least trade-deadline pick-up Rasul Douglas, who had two sacks and a fumble recovery, is still healthy.

When all is said and done, all victories are equal: they are each worth one W. But what does beating this abject Jets team really mean? On a day when Gang Green went 0-for-11 on third downs, allowed six sacks and managed only 155 total yards, Zach Wilson was benched late in the third quarter in favour of QB3 Tim Boyle. Wilson (7-of-15, 81 yards) was awful; he didn’t even complete a pass to a wide receiver. (Heck, even punter Thomas Morstead completed an 18-yard pass for a first down on a fake punt, kickstarting their first successful touchdown drive in a staggering 41 attempts!) Post-game, Robert Saleh wouldn’t commit to naming his starter for the Black Friday game against the AFC East-leading Dolphins but by Monday night, Wilson had been demoted beneath both Tim Boyle and Trevor Siemian. Ouch.

As for the Bills, much stiffer tests lie in wait, with trips to Philadelphia and Kansas City coming up either side of a bye week. If they’re going to make the playoffs, Brady’s offense will need to repeat this level of performance against teams of a higher calibre than the New York Jesters. [ST]

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PICK SIX – Week 4

Week 4 of the 2023 NFL season is now in the books and Sean Tyler is back to pick six more things worthy of discussion and dissection (while Shaun Blundell spends his bye week taking in the first of this season’s International Series games). But enough of the preamble. David Montgomery, Khalil Mack, Mac Jones, the Super Bowl favourites, Lamar Jackson and the battling Denver Broncos: you have my attention!

David finally slays his Goliath

Cast your minds back a couple of years to October 2021. Sealing a 24-14 win over the Bears at Soldier Field, Packers QB Aaron Rodgers ran in a late TD, then turned to the crowd and yelled “I own you! I still own you!” It was unnecessarily provocative but factually correct, as he’d just secured Green Bay a 20th win in 23 encounters.

That day, Bears RB David Montgomery was on IR but during his four years there, he lost all seven matchups against the Cheeseheads. But things are different now. In the offseason, he moved 400 miles due west to Detroit – another divisional foe – and on Thursday night, at Lambeau Field, the Lions won 34-20, their fourth straight win against Green Bay. Montgomery finally beat his old nemesis and while Rodgers himself was no longer there, I bet the taste of victory was no less sweet.

He was undoubtedly the workhorse of the game, carrying the rock 32 times – the most by any player this season – for 121 yards. He also rumbled into the paint for a career-best three touchdowns, from 3, 2 and 1 yard out, and had two catches for 20 yards for good measure.

Sure, his average (3.8 yards) suggests volume over efficiency but it was one hell of an effort, considering he missed last week’s game against Atlanta with a thigh injury and was questionable for this one. “To come out here with these guys and get the dub, that’s big for me,” he told reporters. “I can now tell my son that I beat the Packers!”

Another new experience for the former Iowa State man is sitting on top of the NFC North. Chicago never finished higher than second when he was there and the Lions haven’t won the division for 30 years. So after two big road victories (having won the season opener at Arrowhead), you can’t begrudge the 3-1 Lions – and especially Montgomery – their lofty perch. [ST]

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The cream always rises to the top

Before the season, the four teams with the shortest Super Bowl odds were the Chiefs, Bills, 49ers and Eagles. Well, whaddya know: Kansas City and Buffalo are up at the top of the AFC standings at 3-1 while in the NFC, San Francisco and Philadelphia are the only two teams in the league with a 100% record.

After wobbly starts on the opening weekend, the Bills and Chiefs have rediscovered their mojo. Buffalo lost 22-16 to the Jets on the first MNF of the season but have since despatched the Raiders, Commanders and Dolphins while scoring 123 points. This weekend’s 48-20 destruction of Miami was a Josh Allen/Stefon Diggs masterclass, with Allen posting four passing TDs, an 11-yard rushing score and a perfect 158.3 passer rating. The main beneficiary was Diggs, who totalled 120 yards and caught three of those TD passes. Suffice to say, the Bills are looking scarily good right now and should put on a show for UK fans this Sunday.

The Chiefs also bounced back from an opening-day defeat to the Lions with wins over Jacksonville and Chicago, and then eeked out a 23-20 victory over the Jets in Sunday’s late game. They built a 17-0 lead, on the back of a 115-yard/1 TD rushing performance from Isiah Pacheco but two uncharacteristic INTs from Patrick Mahomes at least made it interesting. Nonetheless, the big red machine marches on and they currently sit where you’d expect: top seed in the AFC.

In the other conference, the Niners have looked imperious, scoring exactly 30 in wins over the Steelers, Rams and Giants before seeing off the Cardinals 35-16 this weekend. Unsurprisingly, the stars of the show were once again Brock Purdy (20 of 21 for 283), Brandon Aiyuk (148 receiving yards) and the irrepressible Christian McCaffrey. As well as rushing for 106 yards and 3 TDs, he also made seven catches for 71 yards and another tuddy. Run CMC’s 459 rushing yards this season put him almost 100 ahead of his nearest rival already.

Matching them win for win are the Eagles, carrying on from last season’s Super Bowl run with barely a blip, despite changing both offensive and defensive coordinators. After Ws over the Patriots, Vikings and Buccaneers, they needed OT to see off a spirited Commanders side this weekend. Luckily, AJ Brown (175 receiving yards, 2 TDs) was in the mood and Philly stay undefeated with a 34-31 victory.

So, there you have it. It’s a little demoralising for the other 28 franchises to see the usual contenders setting the pace already but if you had a flutter on one of them to go all the way, you’re probably feeling pretty chuffed so far. Let’s see if they can keep up the pace. [ST]

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Lamar: last man standing in the North

The general consensus is that the AFC North is the NFL’s most competitive division this year. The Bengals had won back-to-back titles, signed Joe Burrow to a historically large contract and brought in Orlando Brown Jr to sure up the O-line. The Ravens signed Lamar Jackson to a mega-deal, picked up Odell Beckham Jr off the street and got all their guys back after two years blighted by injuries. With Myles Garrett and Za’Davius Smith in their ranks, Cleveland are by far the strongest of the four defensively and, as we like to say here at F10Y headquarters, “the Steelers won the offseason” so even their tails were up.

But a month is a long time in football and after just four games, it’s all starting to unravel for three of these teams.

Let’s get the big one out of the way first: the 1-3 Bengals are absolutely awful this season! At the bottom of almost every metric you can think of, the offense is (if you’ll excuse the mixed metaphors) clearly hamstrung by Burrow’s calf injury. He’s almost immobile in the pocket, which makes him a sitting duck. With just three TDs in four games, two outings with only a field goal to show for their efforts, including Sunday’s 27-3 loss to the Titans, and a suddenly leaky defense that let Derrick Henry rumble for 122 yards, run in a score and throw a TD pass as well(!), you can make a solid case for them being the worst team in the league at the moment.

So, to Pittsburgh, now 2-2. Kenny Pickett amassed 15 of 23 for 114 yards and an INT before leaving the field during their 30-6 loss at the Houston Texans with a knee injury. And their defense let the improving Texans rack up 451 yards of offense. For now at least, they contemplate life with backup Mitch Trubisky flinging the pigskin, which surely can’t be a good thing, can it?

And what of the 2-2 Browns? Their defense is, as expected, a force to be reckoned with but again, offensively, there are issues. Nick Chubb’s ghastly knee injury a couple of weeks ago left their running game severely weakened for the rest of the year and on Sunday, Watson was replaced by debutant Dorian Thompson-Robinson due to a shoulder injury. The rookie stand-in completed 19 of 36 for 121 yards, threw 3 INTs and his team scored just three points in a 28-3 humbling by Baltimore. Room for improvement there, for sure, but at least they have a bye week to help them reset.

The 3-1 Ravens are not without their own injury woes, with their left tackle and two receivers missing on Sunday. But they are at least the last of the four teams with a fully fit starting QB… and it’s Lamar Jackson. On Sunday, he ran in two TDs, threw for two more (both to Mark Andrews) and only had four incompletions all day. So it seems whoever’s missing from their ranks, Jackson can still carry the team on his back.

As expected, it’s been attritional and much of it hasn’t been pretty, with the Bengals sinking, the Steelers struggling and the Browns regressing. And unless something changes quickly, the AFC North already looks like its Baltimore’s to lose. So much for competitive. [ST]

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Return of the Mack

The LA Chargers gave up at least 24 points in their first three games and Joey Bosa was sidelined for Sunday’s clash with the Raiders. So was rookie QB Aiden O’Connell – making his first start for Las Vegas in place of Jimmy Garoppolo (concussion) – going to get an easy ride of it? Not on your nelly.

Step forward 32-years-young Khalil Mack. The edge rusher posted double-digit sacks every year from 2015 to 2018 (with Oakland and Chicago), but his team needed him to wind back the clock and regain that kind of game-changing form. And boy, did he prove he can still bring the heat. Mack recorded all six of his team’s sacks, only one short of tying the NFL’s single-game record set by Derrick Thomas in 1990. In so doing, he joins Thomas as the only other player with multiple games with five-plus sacks. Mack now goes straight to the top of the current NFL sack race, joining (the other) Josh Allen and TJ Watt with half a dozen each.

Terrorising the team that drafted him back in 2014, Mack was a one-man wrecking crew who just couldn’t be contained. Coming off both sides like a heat-seeking missile, he also logged nine tackles, five tackles for loss, 10 QB pressures and seven QB hits, giving O’Connell a torrid debut. To say Mack’s sack attack was pivotal to the Bolts securing a 24-17 win is definitely the understatement of the week.

As HC Brandon Staley said afterwards, “He’d been close to having three monster games. Today, he put it all together. This guy’s one of the best edge players of his generation. He’s still that guy.” [ST]

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The comeback kids

Those of you who watch Red Zone on DAZN/Game Pass will be familiar with the Witching Hour. That’s the point, late in the 6pm Sunday window, when Scott Hanson tells us, in his scariest Halloween voice, “it’s the time when wins become losses, and losses become wins”.

Well, you can tell we’re in October already because there was something spooky going on this Sunday. Take the clash between the Rams and Colts, for example. It all seemed plain sailing for Los Angeles, who took a 23-0 lead midway through the third quarter. But once Scott had delivered his line, the witches cast their spells.

A 35-yard TD pass from Indy QB Anthony Richardson to tight end Moe Ali-Cox and a 2-point conversion: 23-8. Then, a missed field goal by the Rams’ Brett Maher followed by a 1-yard rushing TD by Richardson: 23-15. A short TD pass to Andrew Ogletree and another 2-point conversion: 23-23! Frustratingly, once parity was reached, the teams traded punts, the comeback stalled and OT was needed. The Rams finally prevailed, with that man Puka Nacua getting his first TD of a standout debut season, but the Colts deserve a lot of credit for their supernatural 23-point comeback.

Then there was the game between the winless Bears and Broncos. Chicago had built up a 28-7 lead with less than half a minute left in the third quarter so again, enough for a first win of the season, surely? You’d have thought so but no sooner had “when wins become losses” been uttered, the momentum switched and the Broncos went on a stampede.

With 20 seconds left of Q3, Russell Wilson connected with Brandon Johnson for a 4-yard TD. The Bears punted their next possession away and Denver roared back on a 12-play, 70-yard drive that culminated in a Courtland Sutton score. The ensuing Chicago drive ended with a sack fumble of Justin Fields, which Jonathon Harris returned for six. The 21-point deficit was erased in about 8 minutes, and there was still time for the Bears to hand the ball over yet again after a failed 4th-and-1. One magnificent 48-yard play by Marvin Mims later, Denver were in field goal territory and Wil Lutz’s trusty boot secured an unlikely but very welcome 31-28 victory.

So, however big your team’s lead is going into the final quarter, assume nothing – and beware the Witching Hour! [ST]

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Bill and Mac: most heinous

I usually prefer to focus on the positive and the impressive but sometimes, you can’t avoid the tales of woe. So let me introduce you to the main characters of my last observation this week: Mac Jones and Bill Belichik.

On the face of it, the Patriots’ 38-3 gubbing by the 3-1 Cowboys in the late window (what is it with teams scoring 3 points this week?!) wasn’t great. Dallas took last week’s disappointing loss out on New England, who now fall to 1-3. With CeeDee Lamb catching Dak Prescott’s one passing TD and fullback Hunter Luepke running in the only score on the ground, it was again the Cowboy’s defense that starred in this one. Leighton Van Der Esch scooped up the ball for a TD after Jones had the ball stripped out by Dante Fowler, and DaRon Bland jumped a cross-field pass for another pick six (the replacement for the injured Trevon Diggs bagged another INT too). But what makes this game all the more incredible is that it’s the worst defeat Belichick has presided over in his 29 years as head coach. Wow.

Now, you don’t lose by 35 points without several things going wrong and there are many directions in which irate Pats fans can point their accusatory fingers. Some will definitely be aimed at the sieve-like offensive line, and many more at their ineffective quarterback. Jones completed just 12 of 21 pass attempts for 150 yards and turned the ball over three times, leading to 18 points for the opposition, before he was hooked late in the third quarter. His replacement, Bailey Zappe, only competed four throws, which at least makes the news that Jones will start against the Saints this week slightly more palatable.

“We obviously didn’t do much of anything well enough to be competitive tonight,” Belichick said afterwards. “I think we’re a lot better than what we showed out there tonight, but that’s what we showed. That’s what it was. We’ve got a lot of work to do to perform better.”

As the other great mind called Bill (from Bill and Ted’s Excellent Adventure) once said, “the only true wisdom consists of knowing that you know nothing”. So Bill B, forget the last 29 years and go back to the drawing board. [ST]

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Rookies of the Week – Week 3

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50-point demolitions, supposed tanking teams pulling off shock wins, and a media frenzy in Kansas. Has the NFL ever been more eclectic than it is at the moment?

Anyway, let’s shake it off and take a look at the standout rookies from Week 3.

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De’Von Achane, Running Back – Miami Dolphins

Achane was outstanding in the Miami Dolphins’ 70-20 victory over the Denver Broncos, rightfully earning himself the AFC Offensive Player of the Week title.

Finishing with four touchdowns and 233 all-purpose yards, Achane became only the second player in NFL history to have two rushing touchdowns, two receiving touchdowns, and at least 200 rushing yards in a game.


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Brian Branch, Cornerback – Detroit Lions

Branch, who was unlucky not to get in my Week 1 article, was outstanding in the 20-6 win against the Falcons. Not only did he hold his own against Kyle Pitts and Drake London in coverage, but he also helped his team stifle fellow rookie sensation Bijan Robinson, limiting him to 60 total yards.

Finishing the game with two quarterback hurries, 11 solo tackles, three for a loss, and two pass breakups, Branch only seems to be getting better.


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Jalen Carter, Defensive Line – Philadelphia Eagles

Carter continued his dominant streak for the third consecutive week, wreaking havoc on Tampa Bay’s offensive line. With half a sack, a QB hit, four pressures, and a first-career forced fumble, he’s proving to be a game wrecker. His 20.5% pressure rate so far this season is not just good; it’s All-Pro level good.


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Christian Gonzalez, Cornerback – New England Patriots

Could Gonzalez be having a Sauce Gardener-type year? It may be early in the season, but if his start is anything to go by, then he is well on pace. In Sunday’s 15-10 win over the Jets, Gonzalez was lined up against Garrett Wilson on 23 of his 41 snaps and held him to only three catches for 18 yards.


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Sam LaPorta, Tight End – Detroit Lions

LaPorta continues his hot streak on this list thanks to an eight-reception, 84-yard showing where he also scored his first touchdown as a pro. He now leads all tight ends in receiving yards with 186 and is second in receptions to T.J. Hockenson.

It’s also a third week in a row for the rookie tight end! To put that into perspective, only two players got on the list three times last year: Garrett Wilson and Dameon Pierce, albeit on a smaller ranking list last year.


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C.J. Stroud, Quarterback – Houston Texans

If Week 2 saw Stroud sneak into my article over Anthony Richardson, then Week 3 was where he cemented his place. The young quarterback had 20 completions on 30 attempts for 280 yards and two touchdowns. His PFF grade of 91.1 when throwing from a clean pocket led all quarterbacks in the league.


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Tuli Tuipulotu, Edge Rusher – Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers haven’t exactly wowed on defence, but that hasn’t deterred Tuipulotu from making his case as an early Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate, and his performance against the Vikings will only help his case. With nine pressures and three sacks in the game, he now totals 12 pressures and three sacks in just two starts this season.

Honourable Mentions: JuJu Brents (Colts), Tank Dell (Texans), Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions), Marvin Mims Jr. (Broncos), Michael Wilson (Cardinals)

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PICK SIX – Week 3

It’s Tuesday so we – Shaun Blundell and Sean Tyler – are back to pick six things from the Week 3 NFL slate that caught our eye. This time, our interest was piqued by an explosive offense, a brick-wall defence, a struggling quarterback, underdogs upsetting the odds, another tight one between two one-score-game specialists and a record-breaking kicker. So let’s just crack on, shall we?

Myles in motion for dominant Browns D

Myles Garrett has dominated every game this season. On Sunday, for those of you who only judge a player by his ‘stat sheet’, he dominated there too. He sacked Ryan Tannehill 3.5 times as the Cleveland defense continued its early season form, limiting Tennessee to just 94 yards as the Browns cruised to a 27-3 win. It was a historically bad day for the Titans, who recorded their lowest offensive output since the days of the Oilers. The previous low for the Titans of Tennessee, as we know them today, was 98 yards against Jacksonville in 2006.

Derrick Henry was curtailed to 20 yards on 11 carries. The Titans managed a measly six first downs the whole game and poor punter Ryan Stonehouse had as many punts as any wide receiver had targets. The only score for the Titans came on a drive that started on the Browns’ 17-yard line and went as follows: Henry -3 yard run; Garrett sack and forced fumble -7 yards; completed pass -2 yards. It is the only time any opponent has been inside the Browns’ red zone all season and they went backwards.

Tannehill was under siege the whole time. He was sacked five times, completed 13 of 25 passes for 104 yards and never got Tennessee’s offense moving. Andre Dillard was abused all game by Garrett, Za’Darius Smith and company. And on one play, Garrett had two tight ends following him in motion across the formation in a futile attempt to block him. He continued to motion to the opposite side and in comedic fashion, the offense continued to follow. It led to a delay of game penalty against the Titans and highlighted the fear the All-Pro strikes in his opponents.

An exclamation point for Cleveland’s defense came on the first two plays of the fourth quarter, when Alex Wright and Garrett recorded sacks on consecutive plays, much to the delight of coordinator Jim Schwartz, smiling away on the sideline. This Browns defense is playing at a historic level through three weeks. They have allowed -36 rushing yards before contact this season, while the league average is +94! With the offense showing signs of life and the Browns looking competitive, maybe this is finally the year that Garrett enters the Defensive Player of the Year conversation. [SB]

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Every dog has its day

Before this weekend’s action, the Texans and Cardinals occupied the last two positions in every power ranking I saw. And while they may not be tanking as such, a successful season seemed like wishful thinking for both franchises. 

And so to Sunday. In my Yahoo! Survivor game, 25% of players picked the Jaguars to sink the 0-2 Texans, and a further 15% picked the Cowboys to see off the winless Cardinals. The betting lines reflected this consensus, with Jacksonville giving up 7.5 points and Dallas favoured by 13 on the road. And yet, both ‘dogs rose to the occasion.  

In Houston, the new kids continued to make their mark in a comfortable 37-17 win over their divisional foes. Rookie QB CJ Stroud maintained his hot start to the campaign with 280 passing yards and two touchdowns, making him only the third quarterback ever to pass for over 900 yards in their first three career games (his 906 place him 4th in the league). And don’t forget, he’s yet to throw an interception. Fellow newbie Tank Dell had five receptions for 145 yards and a TD.

Meanwhile, Arizona finally showed they can put it together for a whole game for a change, having outscored their opponents by 34 points in the first half of their previous games but losing both. In beating the Cowboys 28-16, QB Joshua Dobbs impressed with 189 yards and a TD, completed 80.9% of his passes (17 of 21) – including a 69-yard pass to rookie Michael Wilson – and set the tone on the second play of the game with a 44-yard run. Elsewhere, Matt Prater kicked a 62-yard FG, the longest we’ve seen this season so far, and Kyzir White made a red zone INT to close out the game.

So if you had either of these teams pegged as this year’s whipping boys, maybe it’s time to think again. They may be full of young and inexperienced players but they showed spirit in picking up their first wins of the season and perhaps they’re not cannon-fodder after all. In fact, if I were a gambling man, I’d wager the loser of next week’s Bears v Broncos matchup may be a better bet to make the first overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft than either Houston or Arizona. [ST]

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The Jets are too talented to not make a move, surely?

This year was supposed to be different for the Jets. They were supposed to have Aaron Rodgers leading them to success but a cruel Achilles tear later, the team is now in the hands of Zach Wilson. Their roster is too talented for this to remain the case, surely? Even against a struggling Patriots team, the Jets weren’t able to get the win.

The dreaded coach speak of “he gives us the best chance to win” was thrown out by Robert Saleh after a second consecutive loss with Wilson at the controls. It is scary to think just how bad QB Tim Boyle may be, as the only other quarterback on the depth chart. Wilson was 18 of 36 for 157 yards and no touchdowns, and took three sacks for a loss of 24 yards. Garrett Wilson led the team in receiving with five catches for 48 yards while on the ground, Dalvin Cook and Breece Hall posted 18 yards each.

Wilson didn’t turn the ball over but his day was illustrated perfectly on the Jets’ penultimate drive. Down 5 points, on a 4th-and-10 from their own 45, he completed the pass to tight end Tyler Conklin. For 2 yards, on a checkdown, with a Patriot defender right there to effectively seal the ball game for New England. Football is cruel though and there was more heartbreak for the Jets as Randall Cobb should have come down with the Hail Mary on the final play of the game to secure the unlikeliest of victories. Emphasis on the word should.

Wilson is still a developmental QB who hasn’t developed into a starting-calibre player. He’s paying the price of being overdrafted and facing the intense scrutiny of the New York market. The boo birds were out in droves on Sunday night for the franchise’s 15th consecutive loss to Bill Belichick’s team. Some teams just have your number but for the Jets, this is a nightmare they simply have to find a way out of. Teammates and coaches arguing on the sidelines in Game 3 should send warning signals through the building. GM Joe Douglas must do something.

Oh well, it’s the Chiefs up next. Maybe Carson Wentz might get yet another redemption shot? [SB]

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Kickers matt-er

With the Colts missing their starting QB Anthony Richardson, as well as PUP-list running back Jonathan Taylor (remember him?), it was going to take something special for Indy to go to Baltimore and beat the Ravens, one of only two AFC teams with a perfect record after two weeks. Back-up Gardner Minshew fought hard (227 passing yards, 1 TD), Zack Moss posted a career-high 122 rushing yards and the defense largely held Lamar Jackson and co. in check. But in the end, the difference-maker in this intriguing, attritional 22-19 overtime battle was a kicker.

If I’d said that before the game, I reckon 99% of you would’ve put this month’s mortgage or rent payment on it being the Ravens’ Justin Tucker. After all, he’s the best in the league, holds the NFL field goal record at 66 yards and has won many games in clutch moments. But on Sunday, the plaudits went to Colts kicker Matt Gay for his own clutch, record-breaking day. Even the wind and rain from the tail-end of Tropical Storm Ophelia couldn’t blow him off course.

Tucker himself missed a chance to win the game for Baltimore with 1 second left, his 61-yard attempt falling just short of the crossbar, so into OT we went. With the tension building, the teams traded three-and-outs and then both failed on 4th downs, but a 13-yard run from Moss eventually brought Indianapolis within range. Gay obliged, coolly nailing the walk-off winner from 53 yards. Even more impressively, that was his fourth successful kick from over 50 yards in the game, something never before achieved in the NFL. Earlier, he’d drilled home from 31, 54, 53 and 53, the last of which tied the game with under a minute of regulation remaining.

The former Rams kicker, acquired as a free agent in March, has now made his last seven 50-yarders and puts his success down to his ‘tunnel vision’ mentality. “You jog on, kick it and jog off,” he explained afterwards. “That’s the mindset I like to have. I don’t like to think too much about what’s going on. I’m just in blackout mode.”

With ice in his veins and former Colts QB Matt Ryan now in the commentary booth, maybe we’ve discovered Matty Ice 2.0? [ST]

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Close, but this time, no cigar

The Minnesota Vikings were 11-0 in games decided by 7 points or fewer in 2022. After another game that saw the Vikings involved in a close tussle – a 28-24 loss to the LA Chargers – their record this year drops to 0-3 in such games. 

It really does highlight the small margins by which NFL games are often decided. With just 55 ticks left on the clock, Kirk Cousins dialled up a deep ball to Jordan Addison. It looked for all the world it was going to land right in his bread basket. Chargers safety Alohi Gilman, however, had other ideas. He leaped into the air and managed to somehow get his fingertips on the ball, disrupting the potential catch. It fell incomplete, although a penalty elsewhere on the field kept the drive alive.

Three plays later, the Vikings faced 4th-and-5. Cousins zipped a pass over the middle for TJ Hockenson for 9 more yards to extend the drive again. With no timeouts remaining, the Vikes inexcusably let more than 20 seconds drain off the play clock and then called a play that appeared to cause some offensive confusion. Cousins dropped back, looked for Hockenson again but the coverage was tight, the ball was deflected and it looped up towards Kenneth Murray who made a diving interception in the end zone. On another day, maybe even just last season, it sticks in the tight end’s hands.

These two teams are always involved in one-score games so it was almost guaranteed that this contest would boil down to the final play of the game. Their victory moves the Chargers to 1-2 while the Vikings remain winless at 0-3. It is really difficult to say if either of these teams are good, bad or indifferent. What is easy to say, however, is that this is why we love the NFL because games like this are the norm every weekend. For the Vikings’ sake, they need to get on the right side of one of these close outcomes soon before the season is lost before it has truly begun. [SB]

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Miami turn it up to 10

Taking a knee to close out a big win is akin to a victory lap and usually worthy of high-fives and backslapping all round. But in the case of Miami’s 10-touchdown (yes, 10!) mauling of the Denver Broncos on Sunday, some fans might have been slightly disappointed. That’s because, had their team successfully attempted a field goal from the Broncos’ 28-yard line instead, they’d have equalled the all-time NFL record of 73 points, set by Chicago in a postseason game back in 1940.

As it was, HC Mike McDaniel didn’t want to rub salt into some very raw wounds, and his team’s 70-20 win still brought the second-highest points tally ever in the regular season (Washington hit the Giants for 72 in 1966). His team also became the first to score five rushing TDs and five receiving TDs in a game.

In a non-contest described by Broncos HC Sean Payton as “embarrassing”, Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa – the bookies’ current favourite for MVP – posted a perfect first half, completing 16 of 16 for 206 yards with two TDs and no INTs. Along with some other starters, he was pulled in the fourth quarter, so finished with ‘only’ 309 yards and four touchdown passes.

With a hugely dominant Miami offense racking up 726 total yards – the second-most in NFL history – players were literally lining up to score. No doubt, fantasy owners were rubbing their hands with glee as Raheem Mostert rushed for 82 yards and 3 TDs, and logged 60 yards and a TD through the air. Meanwhile, De’Von Achane posted 203 rushing yards with two scores, plus a further 30 yards and two TDs receiving (both from absolutely filthy no-look backwards shovel passes from Tua). On another day, Tyreek Hill’s 157 yards/1 TD, or even Chosen Anderson’s 68-yard TD, might have been newsworthy but not today.

Even without WR2 Jaylen Waddle (concussion protocol), Miami’s offense cruised to the top of the league in yards per play, yards per game and points per drive. The defense also forced multiple turnovers for the second straight game. So are they the best team in the AFC East, the conference or even the league right now? Maybe, but we should know more next week when they face the Bills, scorers of 75 points over the last two games themselves. So get your sparklers, marshmallows and hot chocolate ready, there’s gonna be fireworks! [ST]

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PICK SIX – Week 1

Welcome to our new series where two of the Full 10 Yards crew, Shaun Blundell and Sean Tyler, pick six (see what we’ve done there?!) talking points from the previous week’s slate to highlight and dissect. And with Week 1 of the new season now in the books, let’s jump straight in!

Drop three, pick six

Well, wouldn’t you just know it? Our opening talking point from the first game of the season – the Thursday night curtain-raiser between the upstart Lions and the defending champion Chiefs – was inspired by a pick six from Lions rookie safety Brian Branch. I don’t want to do Detroit a disservice – it was a great play and the Lions deserved the W – but it soon became apparent that the Chiefs were missing TE Travis Kelce (knee injury), not least because of the offensive weapons it left Patrick Mahomes with.

Skyy Moore dropped two targets, rookie wideout Rashee Rice dropped one and even RB Jerick McKinnon joined the party, but the major culprit was Kadarius Toney, with three drops. The butter-fingered receiver’s worst miss was in the third quarter when the ball ricocheted off his hands to Branch, who ran it back for a 50-yard score to tie the game at 14-14. Later in the quarter, Toney dropped a third down pass, forcing Kansas City to settle for a field goal, and his final whoopsy, with 2:25 remaining and the Chiefs trailing by one, saw a slingshot come through his grasp and away. A catch would have set up a game-winning FG try.

After the 21-20 loss, Toney deleted his Twitter/X account to avoid the inevitable flak for his ‘zero net gain’ stat line (one catch for 1 receiving yard, one carry for -1 rushing yards). Despite his 29.7 PFF grade, the lowest given to a receiver since 2018, his QB still had his back. Mahomes said of Toney “I have trust that he is going to be the guy that I go to in those crucial moments.” Let’s see if that’s true next week. [ST]

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Bang, bang, bang for your buck

When we talk about players celebrating a hat-trick, the focus is usually centered on someone on the offensive side of the ball. The Atlanta Falcons, however, relied on a star performance from their marquee summer acquisition to spark them to a 24-10 victory over the Carolina Panthers. Jessie Bates III, take a bow.

Fresh from an eye-popping four-year, $64 million deal in free agency, Bates wasted little time in starting to repay some of the faith his new team has placed upon him. He twice picked off rookie quarterback Bryce Young. 

The first was a classic interception from a safety. Watching the eyes of the quarterback and closing quickly on the ball, Bates beat former Falcon Hayden Hurst to the ball as he was crossing over the middle. It set the Falcons up in the red zone and four plays later, they had the lead. The second was almost a carbon copy. With a crossing route from the right-hand side of the Panthers formation, Bates again jumped the route beating Terrance Marshall to the ball. This time, it led to a field goal.

The trifecta was capped off on the next Panthers possession. Miles Sanders had seemingly ripped off a nice chunk of yardage only for Bates to punch the ball out and be credited with a forced fumble. The Falcons would recover and score a touchdown on the ensuing drive. One game, three turnovers and 17 points from those turnovers. Not a bad debut at all, sir! [SB]

**STOP PRESS** On Monday Night Football last night, the New York Jets went one better. Safety Jordan Whitehead played lights out, picking off the Bills’ Josh Allen THREE times as the Jets squeaked out a 22-16 OT win. What with that, a game-winning 65-yard punt return TD by rookie Xavier Gipson and Aaron Rodgers’ Achilles injury after just four plays, it’s a shame all five Hard Knocks episodes are now in the can.

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Tua and Tyreek rewrite records

Other than my own Bengals, the game that most intrigued me this week was the Dolphins vs the Chargers: two AFC teams with high hopes underpinned by notes of fragility and under-achievement. It turned out to be an absolute barnstormer, with Miami prevailing in a wild, come-from-behind 36-34 win, thanks in no small way to the lethal combo of Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill.

The Chargers played their part for sure but there’s no disgrace in coming up short against a Dolphins team intent on winning a shootout (their 16 explosive plays were the most by any team since 2014). In his first appearance since a Week 17 concussion, Tua silenced his doubters to the tune of 28 completions for 466 yards and 3 TDs. Two of those tuddies went to Hill – including a clutch game-winner with 1:45 left on the clock – as he amassed a staggering 215 yards from just 11 receptions. 

Rewriting the Super Bowl-era record books, Hill now has three games of 200+ yards and 2+ receiving TDs – a new NFL high – while Tua’s 466 yards were the most ever against the Chargers and the third-highest of any QB in Week 1. 

Ever-humble HC Mike McDaniel summed it all up afterwards by saying “That’s kind of what I expected to happen with the work that he (Tua) has done.” I feel “expected” may be a tad rich but Miami’s QB has certainly laid down a gauntlet to the rest of the league. [ST]

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Riddle me this

Welcome back Calvin Ridley! An almost-forgotten move due to its timing was the shrewd business the Jaguars pulled off by acquiring the former Falcons receiver. Fresh off his return from suspension following gambling misdemeanours, Ridley picked up right where he left off. 

He led the Jags in targets (11), receptions (8) and yards (101) along with a trip to pay dirt. It had been a whopping 686 days between regular season games for the receiver but he showed all of his class with some crisp route running and his elusiveness, tacking on plenty of yards after the catch.

The Jags as a whole stuttered to a win over what many presume will be a Colts team in rebuild mode. The offensive line had some issues and the run game was pedestrian at best. Maybe they should just let Trevor Lawrence air it out more? A great stat from Next Gen Stats summed it up perfectly: “Trevor Lawrence’s 18-yard TD pass to Zay Jones was one of three completions of 20+ air yards on the day. On passes over 10 air yards, Lawrence finished 8 of 11 for 147 yards and 2 TDs (+27.8% completion percentage over expected).”

Expect the Jags to get better as the season progresses. [SB]

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Dawgs unleashed

It has been a relatively quiet off season in Cleveland. After years of headline making for different reasons in years gone by, the Browns have fallen under the radar somewhat. In a division that has seen two star quarterbacks re-signed and resetting the market in the process, many tip Cleveland to occupy the AFC North cellar once again. Ja’Marr Chase may have lit the touchpaper ahead of kick-off with some ill-advised comments but Jim Schwartz and his unit served up a huge dose of humble pie to not just Chase, but to the entire Bengals offense.

The Browns brought the heat to Joe Burrow all day. The tone was set on the first play of the game with Za’Darius Smith getting his hands on the quarterback. The Browns would go on to record 10 QB hits and four tackles for loss, and were credited with two sacks. The second of those inevitably came from Myles Garrett who, along with his mates up front, had a field day against a sloppy Cincy offense.

Increased pressure up front was backed up by stellar play in the secondary. Tee Higgins was held to zero catches from eight targets. Their longest completed pass of the day went for just 12 yards to Chase, on the Bengals’ opening drive. That was on a third down play, and the Bengals would only complete one more third down from 14 attempts the rest of the way. Despite his fiery words, Chase couldn’t back it up and was held to a lacklustre 39 yards.

There is plenty for the Browns to sort out on offense but defensively, this was an unbelievably brilliant start to the campaign. [SB]

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Giants belittled by Cowboys D

At first glance, a 40-point win against the Giants in Sunday’s late game suggests that the Cowboys offense was cooking. Sure, Tony Pollard rushed well (82 yards, 2 TDs) but Dak Prescott completed just 13 of 24 passes for 143 yards and no TDs. So be in no doubt, the 40-0 drubbing of their divisional rivals was all about special teams and defense. Admittedly, Big Blue’s offense isn’t all that but take nothing away from Dallas DC Dan Quinn, who engineered the largest shutout win in franchise history.

His charges had Giants QB Daniel Jones under the cosh all night. They sacked him seven times, with Dorance Armstrong and Osa Odighizuwa bagging two each. Micah Parsons also got one to stall New York’s opening drive and that set the tone for the rest of the evening, with seven different Dallas players also posting tackles for loss. Brian Daboll’s team also coughed up three turnovers, including a blocked FG returned 58 yards for six by CB Noah Igbinoghene. Dallas led the league with 33 takeaways last season and carried on in a similar vein, with DaRon Bland’s 22-yard interception return TD giving the Cowboys a 16-0 lead in the first quarter (even though their offense had completed just one drive). Even Stephon Gilmore got an interception in his first outing in Cowboys colours.

As Parsons said after the game, “I think we made the statement that I’ve been trying to make: we’re the best defense in the NFL.” It’s only Week 1 and there’s a long way to go but so far, we’ve seen nothing to suggest that he’s wrong. [ST]

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Will Burrow’s deal reset the QB market?

Before we get completely deluged by Draft content, quarterback contracts are still a talking point in the NFL. There’s Aaron Rodgers’ pending move from Green Bay to “Gang Green”, with the finer details still being thrashed out. Then there’s Lamar Jackson, who wants out from Baltimore but no one seems to be rushing to acquire his services – not yet at least. And there are the contracts for Year 3 QBs that are up for extensions.

Having played three years in the league, the likes of Joe Burrow, the Chargers’ Justin Herbert, Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa and Jalen Hurts of the Eagles are now eligible to sort out long-term deals. The first to do so might get the best deal, as each new contract tends to gazump the last, pushing the benchmark ever higher. Yet regardless of whether his contract gets signed before or after the others, the widely held consensus is that Burrow might reset the QB market with the biggest deal ever seen in the NFL.

We know from the Bengals bigwigs the process is already in motion ahead of Burrow’s fifth-year option deadline. At the owners’ meeting in Kansas last week, Cincinnati’s Executive Vice President Katie Blackburn stated that nothing was imminent but confirmed that talks had started. The Bengals will want to know his long-term salary cap hit sooner than later, as they also have other mouths to feed, not least wide receivers Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. As Director of Player Personnel Duke Tobin stated at the NFL Combine, “Sooner is better. Maybe it’s the first piece to come, maybe it’s the last. But we’ll work towards it. We’re not going to rush the process. It’s of vital importance to us. It’s important to Joe, and we’ll work to get it accomplished.”

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There’s no doubt that Joe Burrow has earned the right to a huge deal. His rookie year was curtailed by a nasty ACL injury (the Bengals were 2-7-1 at the time) but a year later, he steered them to their first Super Bowl appearance since 1988. And in 2022, despite an emergency appendectomy during the offseason, he led Cincy’s return to the AFC Championship game and ended a 12-4 campaign with a 35 TD:12 INT ratio and a 68.3% completion rate. Over the past two seasons, only the Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes, now-retired Tom Brady and Justin Herbert have logged more passing yards, and he trailed only Mahomes and Buffalo’s Josh Allen for passing touchdowns. Having set his team’s single-season passing yard and touchdown records, he is definitely in line to land a huge contract.

So what else tells us that he’s in line for a mega-payday? Well, despite the (increasingly inaccurate and outdated) reputation for being cheapskates, the Bengals traditionally pay their QBs handsomely. Andy Dalton signed a six-year, $115m extension in 2014. Before him, Carson Palmer penned an extension worth $118m over nine years. Going back yet further to 1990, Boomer Esiason became the second-highest paid player in the league with a six-year, $16m deal (those were the days, eh?). So the precedent is there: owner Mike Brown isn’t afraid to open his wallet when it comes to his quarterbacks.

The ever-rising salary cap is another factor here. It climbed to $224.8m for the forthcoming 2023 season, up nearly $20m on 2022, and that level of increase is widely expected to continue for the rest of the decade. So if the pot of money keeps getting bigger, Cincinnati should be able to dig deeper to keep the likes of Burrow happy.

All this contract shenanigans doesn’t happen in a vacuum so we can’t ignore the current QB market either. In recent weeks, we’ve seen Seattle’s Geno Smith pen a three-year, $105m deal ($35m/year) and Daniel Jones sign a four-year, $160m contract ($40m/year) with the Giants. At the top of the current list, Aaron Rodgers is the only NFL quarterback with an average salary over $50m a year. Sure, Mahomes signed the biggest total contract ($450m over 10 years) but he still trails Rodgers ($50.2m), Russell Wilson in Denver ($49m), Arizona’s Kyler Murray ($46.1m) and Deshaun Watson in Cleveland ($46m) when it comes to annual salary.

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To recap, there’s a strong argument for believing that Joey B is about to recalibrate the QB market. His performances over the last two years warrant it. The Bengals always pay their QBs. The size of other recent deals is on the rise, as is the salary cap. Everything suggests he’s in line to receive for a historic pile of moolah. How historic? Well, Yahoo Sports’ Charles Robinson states, “I’ve had a chance to talk to people now, and they’re already saying Burrow is going to get $55m. He might even get $6om.” Cap expert Andre Perotta suggested eight years/£408m ($51m/year). And most recently, Brad Spielberger of Pro Football Focus projected a four-year deal worth $214m, which works out at a benchmark-setting annual salary of $53.5m.

But yet… There’s just something niggling away at the back of my mind that says “nope, he’s not going to top the list”. So why am I thinking that?

Well, for one, I’ve seen that Spotrac projects Burrow to earn around $44m/year, based on his current market value. I actually think that undersells him a bit, but I can still see something under the magic 50-mark being possible.

My sense is that Burrow is a shrewd chap. I’m not expecting the lad who attended high school in Athens, Ohio, to offer Cincinnati a home-town discount and leave millions on the table. But like TB12 before him, he could be open to a more team-friendly deal – one that helps the Bengals retain Chase and Higgins (a free agent after next season), as well as Logan Wilson, DJ Reader and others with contract negotiations on the horizon. By his own admission, Burrow sees his Super Bowl window as his “entire career”, he wants to stay a Bengal and wants HC Zac Taylor to be there for the duration too.

Ja’Marr Chase himself said, “At the end of the day, I don’t think Joe is really too worried about how much money he’s going to make because he’s already making a tremendous amount. But it’ll all work out. I think Joe knows how he wants to set up his contract to keep some of his weapons around him. And I think that’s the biggest part for him.” These sentiments were echoed by Tobin, who told The Athletic that Burrow is aware of how his contract will impact the rest of the team. “I think Joe understands better than most people. That’s what makes him a great player. Joe sees the big picture.”

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Heaven only knows what the numbers will be but the quotes from Chase and Tobin give me faith that on-field success outweighs hard cash. He can still “get his bag”, as they say, but not at the expense of the rest of the roster. First and foremost, #9 wants to win games, division titles, conference crowns and Super Bowls. I’m not suggesting his next deal follows in the footsteps of Tom Brady, whose biggest-ever contract was his two-year, $50m deal with the Buccaneers. After all, Burrow deserves to be paid what he’s worth – but there are ways and means to do so that suit both team and player.

Like an incentive-based deal, for example. With the Bills, Josh Allen chose to sign a below-market deal of $43m/year, but it was incentive-based, reducing the cap hit. Mahomes’ deal is also loaded with annual incentives, including $1.25m a year for reaching the Super Bowl and $1.25m for winning the league MVP title (so far, so good!). Something similar might work for Joey B; after all, he thinks his team will be contenders for years to come if he can keep the band together. Being locked in for a decade like Mahomes might not be ideal but a long(ish) contract also makes sense. It’ll mean other quarterbacks will eventually pass him in annual salary, making it increasingly good value for the team over time, and it’ll give them some wiggle room should more accounting gymnastics be required.

So after all this to-ing and fro-ing, where am I landing? I’m thinking six years (the same as Allen, less than Mahomes), which is long enough to allow time for some mid-contract restructuring. And I’m thinking $288 million (a fair way behind Mahomes in total contract value but above everyone else) could swing it, which equates to $48 million/year (more than Mahomes, Allen, Watson and Murray but below Rodgers and Wilson). Enough to set you, your kids and your grandkids up (very comfortably) for life, but not a figure that sets new precedents.

I’m sure it can be done with a bit of give and take on both sides. Let’s see if it comes to pass.

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Pull yer finger out! Five teams snoozing through free agency

If you’ve spent the NFL Free Agency period refreshing Twitter every five minutes, waiting to see if your favourite team has signed that coveted WR1 or retained their in-demand cornerback, you’ll have come across the same names time and time again.

The Dolphins have signed or retained 15 players, including David Long, Mike White and Jalen Ramsey. The Texans are suddenly everyone’s destination of choice, with a staggering 18 players (Devin Singletary, Robert Woods, Dalton Schultz and Jimmy Ward among them) putting pen to paper. And the Raiders have seen 21 guys sign or re-sign, from Jermaine Eluemenor, Jakobi Meyers and OJ Howard to Jimmy G.

But what about the other end of the spectrum? Which teams are keeping their eyes shut, their fingers in their ears and their chequebooks in their pockets? Here are my top five teams that need to wake up, smell the coffee and get in the game before the cupboard is bare.

Los Angeles Rams

Current cap space (courtesy of Over the Cap): $11.5 million

Last season, the Rams suffered a major hangover, crashing from Super Bowl glory to a lacklustre 5-12 record and third place in the NFC West. After years of giving away draft picks like candy and taking dead money hits, the chickens have finally come home to roost. The likes of Aaron Donald, Cooper Kupp and Matt Stafford don’t come cheap so it’s time to tighten the belt. Even cavalier GM Les Snead has admitted that “Our DNA is to attack, to hit the gas, but we’re going to hit the brakes a little bit.”

Now, I’m no driving instructor but I think they’ve not so much dabbed the brakes as done a full-on emergency stop. The team have many holes to fill, not least across their defence and yet, at the time of writing, the free agency frenzy seems to have completely bypassed Inglewood, California. In trading enigmatic CB Jalen Ramsey to Miami, they got tight end Hunter Long (one career reception) and a 2023 3rd round draft pick back in exchange, and they re-signed guard Coleman Shelton. And that’s it.

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In contrast, they’ve needed a revolving door for everyone shipping out. As well as Ramsey, who was always going to move on for financial reasons, they’ve lost QB Baker Mayfield, WR Brandon Powell, CB David Long, safety Nick Scott, punter Riley Dixon and kicker Matt Gay. Linebackers Bobby Wagner and Leonard Floyd were also released. We all know that the front office staff are frantically trying to balance the books, but those last two moves in particular seem a little premature. Surely they could’ve waited and seen the lay of the land before letting players of such calibre just walk?

Maybe their limited cap space is hindering their approach but the absence of a first round pick in the draft (yet again) must be a catalyst to do something in free agency, surely?

Green Bay Packers

Current cap space: $22.4 million

As another team that fell from grace last year (8-9, third place in the NFC North), you’d have thought the Packers might have been a bit more active in recent days too. Franchise QB Aaron Rodgers emerged from his darkness retreat with a strange compulsion to pack his things after 15 years and move to the New York Jets, so at least that question has been answered. But it leaves Green Bay with Jordan Love under center. The young QB has spent the last three years waiting in the wings, with just one start to his name, so to say he’s an unknown quantity is an understatement of epic proportions.

The Packers have managed to retain the services of veteran linebacker Justin Hollins, safety Rudy Ford and the Swiss Army knife that is All-Pro cornerback/kick returner Keisean Nixon. But the only players moving to Wisconsin so far are 49ers safety Tarvarius Moore (who was injured all last season) and Rams long snapper Matt Orzech. Let’s face it, however desperate you are for new blood, that’s unlikely to set Twitter on fire.

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Worryingly, there has been more traffic heading in the other direction. The biggest red flag is the departure of Allen Lazard, who has shown Rodgers the way out with a $44 million move to the Jets. Robert Tonyan returns to his native Illinois as the Bears’ new tight end, while defensive linemen Jarran Reed and Dean Lowry have left for Seattle and Minnesota respectively.

So what should they be doing? Well, filling the Lazard- and Tonyan-shaped holes seems like a good place to start, as Love will need more weapons than Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson to aim for. Should fellow free agents Randall Cobb and Marcedes Lewis also move on, the team will have lost those responsible for over 40% of their receptions, receiving yards and TD catches from last year. Yikes.

Safety Adrian Amos and kicker Mason Crosby may yet find new homes as unrestricted free agents too, so more gaps across the roster are expected. You have the most available cap space of our five teams here so get to it, Cheeseheads!

Los Angeles Chargers

Current cap space: $16.1 million

Every August, we’re told that this is going to be the Chargers’ year… and every January, we confirm that it wasn’t. So you’d have thought that to change the tide, Rams GM Tom Telesco and HC Brandon Staley would have spent March wheelin’ and dealin’ like their lives depended on it.

Well, not really. Much of their work to date has been spent restructuring the contracts of Joey Bosa, Khalil Mack, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, which did at least save them a cool $40 million in cap space. They also re-signed some of their own, including backup QB Easton Stick, OT Trey Pipkins, DL Morgan Fox, punter JK Scott and TE Donald Parham Jr.

The only guy to come through the “in” door so far is veteran Minnesota linebacker Eric Kendricks. Sure, the former All-Pro can replace Drue Tranquill – off to pastures new with the Chiefs – and help with Kenneth Murray’s development but that’s just the tip of the iceberg.

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Somehow, CBS gave the Chargers’ efforts to date an A- grade but I’m unconvinced. As well as the lack of newcomers, star running back Austin Ekeler has been given permission to seek a trade after extension talks hit the buffers. And safety Nasir Adderley’s retirement also needs addressing. I’d like to think the Bolts might use some of their $16 million to pursue someone like John Johnson, recently released by Cleveland, but they’ll have to be quick – they may face competition from the likes of Cincinnati.

Talking of which…

Cincinnati Bengals

Current cap space: $17 million

Weirdly, I’ve seen the Bengals featured in an article about teams that are smashing free agency and even PFF gave them an A- grade but as a Cincy fan, I couldn’t disagree more.

One of the widely expected departures, LB Germaine Pratt, did not come to pass as feared, thanks to the lure of $20 million over three years. But the reigning AFC North champions couldn’t hang on to either of their starting safeties: Jessie Bates heading to Atlanta wasn’t news, but Vonn Bell joining Carolina came as more of a shock. Furthermore, running back Samaje Perine opted to move to Denver and TE Hayden Hurst followed Bell to the Panthers.

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In response, they did fill Bell’s shoes with the versatile Nick Scott from the Rams, and a few depth pieces were retained or added here and there (guards, punt returner, long snapper, etc). And then there was the big one: LT Orlando Brown Jr coming over from conference rivals Kansas City for “just” $64 million. While not elite, he’s still a notable upgrade from Jonah Williams, who would’ve been shuffled over to the right side. However, this acquisition immediately triggered a trade request from Williams’ camp. 

So, in summary, the Bengals have gained a solid blindside tackle to protect Joe Burrow but will now need to upgrade at RT. They don’t have any tight ends of note under contract, now that recent target Foster Moreau has left the game after a cancer diagnosis. And their sparse RB room is still dominated by Joe Mixon, who many believe isn’t worthy of his $12 million cap hit. (And I won’t entertain the Zeke Elliott rumours unless he signs on the dotted line.)

So it’s high time Cincinnati made some moves before there are no options left. Right tackle, tight end and running back remain the glaring holes, while another safety and corner wouldn’t hurt. Some will come in the draft, of course, but securing another free agency vet or two before then would enable them to go ‘best player available’ to a degree. So watch out for movement on Vikings TE Irv Smith, Packers safety Adrian Amos and even Kansas RB Clyde-Edwards Hilaire in the coming days and weeks.  

Baltimore Ravens

Current cap space: $6.7 million

Our last “get a move on” candidate is another AFC North team: the Ravens. Of course, one of the league’s most compelling narratives in recent weeks has been about the future of franchise QB Lamar Jackson. Having been unable to reach a long-term deal, he’s been given the non-exclusive franchise tag, which will cost Baltimore $32.4 million (nearly 15% of their total salary cap). It also means they can match or exceed any offers from other teams or let him go for two 1st round picks. And the superstar QB has indicated that he’s ready to fly the nest.

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But it seems the quarterback situation has hamstrung the team so much that they’ve been unable to do any other business. Indeed, Baltimore remain the only one of the league’s 32 teams not to have brought in anyone new at all. Sure, they’ve retained running back Justice Hill, cornerback Trayvon Mullen and safety Geno Stone, all on one-year deals, but that’s not going to cut the mustard. In the other column, guard Ben Powers (who allowed just one sack last year), safety Chuck Clark (traded for a 7th round pick in 2024) and TE Josh Oliver have left the building.

Maybe they can find a way to beef up their receiver room, especially with Rashod Bateman coming off foot surgery? (Even Marlon Humphrey has been tweeting that OBJ should become a Raven.) Replacing free agent corner Marcus Peters might also be prudent.

Either way, having played on the franchise tag last year, the Jackson saga has dragged on for over two years now and it’s impacting Baltimore’s ability to make other moves. The Ravens have shown that they are open for business but alas, no-one’s buying at the moment. But with only five draft picks this year, they can’t do much to boost that roster until someone comes calling for a former league MVP gunslinger. And time is ticking away…

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5 things we learned on Super Wild Card Weekend

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The NFL’s second Super Wild Card Weekend was even better than the first, here are five things we learned in the first round of the playoffs.

1. The Los Angeles Chargers are poorly coached

Saturday night saw the Chargers blow a 27-point lead in spectacular fashion. Their opponent, the Jacksonville Jaguars pulled the score back to 27-7 to close out the first half, before going on to win 31-30.

Awful clock management from the Chargers’ coaching staff after halftime contributed to the loss, only choosing to run a baffling eight times. That allowed the Jags to come back and steal a game that looked so one-sided.

Brandon Staley has since fired his offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi, and QB coach Shane Day.  Perhaps these moves are intended to divert attention away from a head coach who has made a number of questionable decisions over the last two years.

2. Josh Allen’s turnovers are a big problem

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Allen’s Buffalo Bills were fortunate not to lose to the Miami Dolphins and their third-string quarterback, Skylar Thompson, in the early game on Sunday. Allen’s three turnover-worthy plays brought the Fins back into a game that had previously been out of reach. 

Interceptions by Dolphins defensive backs Xavien Howard and Jevon Holland resulted in scoring drives, while defensive tackle Zach Sieler recovered a fumble for a touchdown. 

There’s no denying he’s one of the best quarterbacks in the game, but his risk-or-reward treatment of the football almost proved costly on Sunday. During the regular season, Allen not only had the most big-time throws (44), but he also tied for the most TWPs with Geno Smith (29).

3. Brian Daboll is the Coach of the Year

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The NFL Coach of the Year for the 2022 season has to be Brian Daboll. His Giants team has showed so much fight this season, winning multiple games they shouldn’t have been talented enough to do so.

Daniel Jones has been very impressive this season, looking like a top-15 quarterback whilst having a set of practice squad receivers. Not bad for a man whose fifth-year option was declined in the offseason. By all accounts, he’s earned a new deal. That’s down to Daboll.

Wink Martindale was an excellent hire this off-season. He put out an excellent defensive plan to stop Justin Jefferson and the rest of the Vikings’ high-powered offense.

4. Cincinnati has real offensive line problems

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The Cincinnati Bengals are right back to where they were at the start of this season, just a big hit away from their franchise quarterback, Joe Burrow, getting hurt again.

Injuries have decimated the unit after Jonah Williams (knee) added to the growing injury list of La’el Collins (ACL) and Alex Cappa (ankle) on Sunday night.

Ted Karras is the only offensive lineman with a PFF grade of over 60, and one of only two lineman with enough snaps to be ranked by the stats company this season. Look for the Bills defensive line to have a field day on Sunday, similar to what Pittsburgh did in Week One.

5. Tom Brady is done in Tampa Bay

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After his team’s 31-14 loss to the Dallas Cowboys, Brady thanked reporters for their hard work over the season, almost as if he was signalling it was time for a change. He is a free agent this coming offseason.

With how the last 12 months have played out for TB12 and the Buccaneers, it makes sense to move on. Whether or not the greatest player in history retries is a different question; prior to the loss, the general consensus was that he’d return for one more year. 

Over the past 24 hours that looks slightly less likely, especially with the signs of decline he showed on Monday night, making multiple odd decisions in the first half. Whatever happens, I believe it is safe to say Tom Brady will not be in Tampa Bay next season.

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5 things to look out for in Week 14

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Three inter-division clashes and Tua vs Herbert on SNF are among five things to look out for in Week 14

1. Bills out for revenge against the Jets

PFF’s second-ranked offense meets their second-ranked defense for the second time this season as the Buffalo Bills host the New York Jets.

Buffalo regained the lead of the AFC East after Miami’s loss to San Francisco on Sunday, a win over the Jets is crucial before their big division decider against the Dolphins.

Unfortunately, they will be without star pass rusher Von Miller for the rest of the season due to a torn ACL discovered during a scope on the knee he injured on Thanksgiving.

2. Giants desperate for a win in an all-NFC East clash

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The New York Giants are in desperate need for a win as the NFC playoff picture is heating up. Brian Daboll’s team have won just one in four, after starting the year 6-1.

A lack of real quality, especially in roles that require depth is really starting to catch up with them. Daniel Jones’ offense has only scored over 25 points once all season. 

Philadelphia looked like they were back to their old selves after a dominant win over the Titans on Sunday. Another outstanding performance from Jalen Hurts will boost his chances of being named MVP

3. Can the Denver Broncos upset the Kansas City Chiefs?

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Denver hasn’t beaten Kansas City since Week 2 of the 2015 season, the year they won the Super Bowl, meaning that the Chiefs have come out on top in each of the last 13 meetings.

If the Broncos pull off an upset, it could seriously jeopardise the Chiefs’ chances of claiming the top seed in the playoffs. If the Chiefs lose and the Bengals or Ravens win, they will fall all the way to three. 

An unlikely fumble by Travis Kelce cost Mahomes and company the lead in Cincinnati on Sunday night, while the Broncos blew their own lead to a Tyler Huntley-led Baltimore team.

4. Brock Purdy vs Tom Brady in San Francisco

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Tampa Bay are hitting form at the right time, being in the last five games, which were all within one score, and winning three of them.

Monday night saw another classic Tom Brady comeback, this time from a two-score deficit with five minutes remaining.

Brock Purdy came in for an injured Jimmy Garroppolo and made all the throws necessary to help San Francisco beat Miami last week. 2022’s Mr. Irrelevant makes his first career start in this game.

5. Tua vs Herbert on Sunday Night Football

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2020’s number five and six overall picks face off as Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert meet for the first time since their rookie year, where the Dolphins were victorious

Tua’s currently going through a career year, whilst Herbert is having a down year. Mike McDaniel’s faith in the quarterback, paired with a better offensive cast, especially Terron Armstead, has helped a potential bust turn his career around. 

All eyes will be on Justin Herbert who has to win this game to keep the Chargers in the playoff picture. A loss and their season is all but done. Can he put the team on his back and win?

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5 things to look out for in Week 11

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Week 11 sees the NFL return to Mexico, a key AFC East battle, and a few crucial players potentially return from injury

1. Can Jeff Saturday go 2-0 as the Colts welcome the 8-1 Eagles to Indianapolis?

The Philadelphia Eagles’ hopes for an unbeaten season were ended on Monday night after a 32-21 loss at home to the Washington Commanders.

Colts Interim HC Jeff Saturday won his first-ever game as an NFL coach on Sunday, against the Raiders in a game that featured a rare Matt Ryan 40-yard run, only days after being an analyst for ESPN.

What makes Saturday’s achievement even more spectacular than your average new interim coach bounce is the fact that he has no play-calling experience whatsoever and has only previously operated at high school level.

2. Will the New England Patriots catapult themselves into contention for the AFC East with a win vs the New York Jets?

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Every team in the AFC East not only has a winning record but also would be in the playoffs if they started today.

After upsetting the Bills 20-17 two weeks ago, the Jets are back from a bye, refreshed and travel to New England for a must-win game to help their playoff push.

New England were victorious 22-17 as the away team in their Week 8 meeting, a win for Bill Belichick’s team puts them within a chance of being unexpectedly right in the mix late in the year.

3. Who’s better, the 6-3 Cowboys or 8-1 Vikings?

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The Dallas Cowboys are 6-3, they have however had one of the easiest schedules in the league this season, that changes on Sunday as they face the 8-1 Minnesota Vikings.

Minnesota, like Dallas, had many questioning their legitimacy but came away from Buffalo with a win in dramatic fashion, silencing their doubters.

Kevin O’Connell’s team are able to grind out wins, every victory in their current seven-game streak is by one score, they’ll be a real challenge for the Cowboys.

4. Will SNF see the Los Angeles Chargers get their playoff push back on track with a win at home to the Kansas City Chiefs?

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Justin Herbert may get the added boost of having Mike Williams and Keenan Allen back to help him go toe to toe with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football.

Allen’s hamstring injury initially occurred in Week 1, before suffering a setback on his return in week 7, the same game that Williams went down with a high ankle sprain.

Kansas City have only scored less than 20 points once all year, but are without Mecole Hardman and Juju Smith-Schuster going into this one.

5. Will Kyler Murray be back for the fifth and final international game of 2022?

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Mexico City hosts two NFC West teams as the Arizona Cardinals and San Francisco 49ers go head-to-head at Estadio Azteca on MNF.

Kyler Murray could be back for Arizona, but if he’s not, their backup QB Colt McCoy is coming off a big game in Los Angeles, where the Cards came away 27-17 winners over the Rams.

A win for San Francisco will see them overtake Seattle for the lead of the division, and in the driving seat for a home playoff game.