Category: Baltimore Ravens

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2024 NFL Draft: Official Two-Round Mock Draft

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It’s draft day!

To celebrate, it’s time to release my two-round mock draft. So without much further ado, let’s get into the picks.

  1. Chicago Bears – Caleb Williams, QB, USC
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The obvious, home run pick at the top of the draft, everyone knows it’s going to happen, let’s move on!

  1. Washington Commanders – Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
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Many people (including myself) have Drake Maye as QB2 in this draft class, Jayden Daniels seems like the better fit for the system the Washington Commanders will run under offensive coordinator, Kilff Kingsbury. The 2023 Heisman Trophy winner is a good deep passer and a dynamic runner who will be able to extend plays and work better out of the structure of the offence than Maye would, in the immediate term. With Marcus Mariota also on the roster it makes sense to learn off of a veteran with a similar skillset before starting games later in the year as well.

  1. Minnesota Vikings (Via NE) – Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina 
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Trade: NE receives – No. 11, 23 and 2025 1st round pick, MIN receives – no. 3

The first projected trade of this mock draft sees Minnesota package their two first-rounders (received pick 23 in a trade with the Houston Texans), and a 2025 first-round pick to move up and select Drake Maye. Minnesota is a perfect match with Kevin O’Connell’s Vikings team and he doesn’t have to play at all in the first year, being able to sit behind veteran Sam Darnold, who was signed in free agency. As for the Patriots, they have so many needs and won’t be competitive in the AFC East for a while, so the quarterback problem can perhaps be pushed back another year or two knowing you’ll probably be back here again picking high in the draft. 

  1. Arizona Cardinals – Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
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Arizona has been my favourite trade partner since Minnesota made the trade for pick 23 and by proxy preparing to trade into the top four. Since reading Adam Schefter’s piece earlier in the week, I’ve been more inclined to think the Patriots will be that trade partner, so in this scenario, the Cardinals get Kyler Murray a true X-receiver, who has the most all-round polished game in this wide receiver class. 

  1. LA Chargers – Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
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Malik Nabers is a dynamic playmaker who can make things happen after the catch. All signs point to the Chargers’ offence being run-heavy under Jim Harbaugh, Justin Herbert will need a dynamic yards-after-catch receiver that will operate well on play action, Nabers is that guy.  

  1. New York Giants – Rome Odunze, WR, Washington 
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Some people prefer Rome Odunze to Nabers due to his size and play style matching up better to that of a true NFL-calibre X-receiver. Odunze is a physical receiver who will be competitive at the catch-point, and the Giants are desperately calling out for receiver help. 

  1. Tennessee Titans – Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
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Tennessee have a huge need at offensive tackle and Joe Alt possesses all the traits to be able to play as an NFL starter on day one in Nashville. Alt is the best tackle in the draft class and the Titans have a huge need at either end of their offensive line, it’s a match made in heaven. 

  1. New York Jets (Via ATL)  – Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
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Trade: ATL receives – No. 10 + 5th round pick, NYJ receives – No. 8

The Falcons are the biggest early players for the first defensive player off the board, and the Jets seem desperate for an offensive playmaker. I like a tackle to the Jets as well looking long term but Brock Bowers is a special tight end talent and the Jets just give Aaron Rodgers another pass catcher. 

  1. Las Vegas Raiders (Via CHI) – J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan 
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Trade: CHI receives – No. 13 + 3rd round pick, LV receives No. 9

In previous mock drafts that I’ve done I didn’t have McCarthy dropping out of the top five, and if the Patriots go quarterback at third overall then I very much doubt he’ll get past five with the Vikings trading up, but in this scenario, he slides a long way and the Raiders snatch their guy with a little trade up. As for the Bears, with only four picks in the draft overall this has to be a trade-down spot. 

  1. Atlanta Falcons (via NYJ)- Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama
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10 picks in and we finally see a defensive player go off the board in Alabama’s cornerback Terrion Arnold. Conversations about whether Quinyon Mitchell or Arnold is the best cornerback in this draft are fair but in this scenario, the Falcons go with the Alabama corner over the Toldeo one. 

  1. New England Patriots (via MIN) – J.C. Latham, OT, Alabama 
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Daniel Jeremiah had Latham as the first tackle off the board at fifth overall in his final mock draft, which says all you need to know about how highly people rate Latham in this class. The Patriots need a long-term answer at tackle and Latham can comfortably be that answer.

  1. New Orleans Saints (Via DEN) – Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn State
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Trade: DEN receives – No. 14 + fifth-round pick, NO receives No. 12

The Saints need a tackle with Ryan Ramcyzk suffering from a knee injury, late in his career and Trevor Penning not panning out how they’d have hoped. Olu Fashanu is a really talented tackle who is rough around the edges, with the right coaching he can be an NFL starter on the left side of this offensive line for years to come.

  1. Chicago Bears (via LV)- Dallas Turner, Edge, Alabama
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Dallas Turner is the best defensive player in this class and the Bears would surely sprint this card to the podium if the board fell this way, especially after trading back. The Montez Sweat trade last season gave the Bears some presence in the front seven but Turner gives them a truly talented edge rusher who can disrupt opposing offences from day one.

  1. Philadelphia Eagles (Via DEN) – Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo
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Trade: DEN receives No. 22, No. 53, PHI receives No. 14

The Eagles really need a cornerback and Howie Roseman has been rumoured to be looking to move up, while Denver needs early day two picks and their major need will be available later in the first round. Mitchell’s Senior Bowl put him on the map out of Toledo and he could bring some seriously dynamic youthfulness to this Eagles secondary. 

  1. Indianapolis Colts – Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson
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Wiggins is, for me, the best cornerback after Arnold and Mitchell at “1a/1b”, and he fits a need for the Colts who look light at quality in their secondary. They may look at a receiver here or even a trade-back, but for me, the need is just too pressing to pass on.

  1. Seattle Seahawks – Troy Fautanu, OT/G, Washington 
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The Seahawks are another trade-down candidate for sure, but I have them keeping Troy Fautanu in state here. Fautanu is a great athlete and I can see them playing him as a guard this year to replace Damien Lewis who left in free agency.

  1. Jacksonville Jaguars – Jared Verse, Edge, FSU
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Verse may not fall this far, but edge isn’t a priority need for many of the teams ahead of the Jaguars at 17. They may go cornerback in Duval County, and might even have to trade up to make that happen, but a good edge rusher would also be of great usage to the Jaguars across from Josh Allen who recently got paid.

  1. Pittsburgh Steelers (Via CIN) – Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State
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Trade: CIN receives – No. 20 + sixth round pick, PIT receives No. 18

In previous mock drafts, I’ve done, I had Fuaga going at 10th overall to the Jets with an eye to their long-term need at the position and his incredible talent in the run game. It’s that talent in the run game that I think will get the attention of the Steelers’ front office and they trade ahead of the Rams and swap with the Bengals who both look like tackle-needy teams.  

  1. LA Rams – Byron Murphy, DT, Texas 
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Kobie Turner proved to be another mid-round steal from the Rams in last year’s draft and he needs help on the defensive line after Aaron Donald’s retirement. Byron Murphy can be a game-wrecker on the interior defensive line on passing and rushing downs. 

  1. Cincinatti Bengals (via PIT) – Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia 
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The Bengals will be annoyed that Bowers didn’t fall to a range they could trade up into and then as it is they settle for a trade down here. It could be a risk with the Rams needing a tackle at 19 but Mims has incredible potential that is worth taking that risk on. With only eight career starts in college Mims isn’t going to be a day-one starter but he will be a pick that comes with heaps of potential.

  1. Miami Dolphins – Laiatu Latu, Edge, UCLA 
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Latu has incredible talent he just falls because of his medical history which is a similar case to Jaelan Phillips a few years ago. In this mock, he ends up across the line from Phillips and the Dolphins will hope taking a gamble again can pay off like it has with Phillips.

  1. Denver Broncos (via PHI) – Bo Nix, QB, Oregon 
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This is the dream scenario for the Broncos, who trade back twice and accumulate a lot of day-two pickles to bolster a bad roster while also adding a quarterback who they’ve put a lot of time and study into. The Zach Wilson trade doesn’t change the thinking here, the Broncos have to take a quarterback and let Sean Payton build a team around him.

  1. New England Patriots (via MIN) – Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU
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Brian Thomas is the best of the rest in this receiver class and his freak athleticism alongside his incredible touchdown production at LSU is hard to ignore. He could definitely go earlier than this, as high as the high-teens I’d have thought but the Patriots would love to add a true outside receiver to this roster, which currently lists slot-receiver KJ Osborn as wide receiver one. 

  1. Dallas Cowboys – Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas
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Dallas have a lot of holes, particularly in the medium term and wide receiver may not be the biggest need assuming they will pay star receiver CeeDee Lamb, but Adonai Mitchell could pair with Lamb to make an excellent receiver duo.

  1. Green Bay Packers – Graham Barton, G, Duke 
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Graham Barton could go a lot higher than this, but the Packers won’t be complaining if they can take him here and play him at guard from day one. The Duke man can play anywhere across the offensive line and plays with immense grit, drive and power, I have no doubt he’d fit perfectly in Green Bay.

  1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Jackson Powers-Johnson, C, Oregon 
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The second top interior offensive line talent, Power-Johnson will go straight into the interior of the Buccaneers’ offensive line and bolster the pass protection for Baker Mayfield. 

  1. Kansas City Chiefs (Via AZ) – Ladd McConkey, WR, Georgia
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Trade: AZ receives – No. 32 + sixth round pick, KC receives No. 27

The Chiefs need receiver help, everyone knows it and with a class so deep at receiver, you’ll need to be brave and aggressive to get your guy, which the Chiefs do at this spot, moving up ahead of the Bills and 49ers to get a playmaker who could be a real nuisance with his route running in Kansas City.

  1. Buffalo Bills – Keon Coleman, WR, FSU 
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Josh Allen needs a big receiver to whom he can throw jump balls to and I have no doubt, Keon Coleman can come straight into this Buffalo offence and make a difference after the Stefon Diggs trade. 

  1. Detroit Lions – Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa 
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DeJean only slides because there are certain questions about where DeJean projects at the pro level, similar, to how Brian Branch fell last year. Coincidentally, it is the Lions who take DeJean as they did with Branch, but unlike Branch being a nickel/safety, I think DeJean can be a true cornerback on the outside.

  1. Baltimore Ravens – Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma 
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The Ravens really badly need a tackle and Tyler Guyton, is a more developmental tackle but the need is so big and there aren’t any elite talents here at other positions of need for that to put the Ravens off.

  1. San Fransisco 49ers – Jordan Morgan, OT/G, Arizona
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Jordan Morgan can slide straight into the interior of the 49ers’ offensive line, while he learns the trade of tackle behind a 38-year-old Trent Williams where he may be projected more, long-term. 

  1. Arizona Cardinals (via KC) – Johnny Newton, IDL, Illinois 
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This is the dream for Arizona, trading back from 27 and still getting a potential game-changer on the interior defensive line, in Johnny Newton from Illinois, who would have been the pick at 27. His size profile lets him down slightly but the play performance gets him in as a first-round pick from me.

Round 2 

  1. Washington Commanders (via CAR) – Chop Robinson, Edge, Penn State (Trade: CAR receives – No. 33, WAS receives – No. 36)
  2. New England Patriots – Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama 
  3. Arizona Cardinals – Darius Robinson, Edge, Missouri  
  4. Carolina Panthers (via WAS) – Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas 
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Trading back and still getting a true playmaker who can change the dynamic of your offence can’t ever be a bad thing, and it definitely isn’t if you’re the Panthers getting the 40-yard dash record holder in Xavier Worthy.

  1. LA Chargers – Mike Sainristil, CB, Michigan 
  2. Tennessee Titans – Kingsley Suamataia, OT, BYU 
  3. Carolina Panthers – Ennis Rakestraw Jr., CB, Missouri
  4. Washington Commanders – Ja’Lynn Polk, WR, Washington 
  5. Green Bay Packers – Edgerrin Cooper, LB, Texas A&M 
  6. Houston Texans – Braden Fiske, DL, FSU 
  7. New York Giants (Via ATL) – Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington
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Trade: ATL receives – 47 + sixth-round pick, NYG receives – 43

Penix has first-round pick potential after his game vs Texas at the end of last season, but the injury history and breadth of accuracy errors on tape earlier in the season all factor into this fall. Seeing him fall this far though kicks the Giants into gear and they select him with the option of getting out of Daniel Jones’ contract next year if they want to take it. 

  1. Las Vegas Raiders – Malachi Corley, WR, Western Kentucky
  2. New Orleans Saints – Chris Braswell, Edge, Alabama 
  3. Indianapolis Colts – Ricky Pearsall, WR, Florida 
  4. Atlanta Falcons (via NYG) – Xavier Legette, WR, South Carolina  
  5. Jacksonville Jaguars – Troy Franklin, WR, Oregon 
  6. Cincinnati Bengals – Michael Hall Jr., DL, Ohio State 
  7. Philadelphia Eagles – Zach Frazier, IOL, West Virginia 
  8. Pittsburgh Steelers – Cooper Beede, IOL, Kansas State
  9. LA Rams – Marshawn Kneeland, Edge, Western Michigan 
  10. Denver Broncos (via PHI) – Junior Colson, LB, Michigan 
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Colson has great talent and is my favourite interior linebacker in this class, he plays with aggression and a lot of athleticism, and the Broncos have a serious need at Mike linebacker, so they use their second-round pick they get from Philadelphia in the trade-up to 14 in the first round to fix that need.

  1. Cleveland Browns – Kris Jenkins, DL, Michigan 
  2. Miami Dolphins – Christian Haynes, G, UConn 
  3. Dallas Cowboys – Jonathon Brooks, RB, Texas
  4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – T.J. Tampa, CB, Iowa State 
  5. Green Bay Packers – Tyler Nubin, S, Minnesota 
  6. Kansas City Chiefs (Via HOU) – Blake Corum, RB, Michigan (HOU receives No. 64 + seventh-round pick, KC receives No.59)
  7. Buffalo Bills – Andru Phillips, CB, Kentucky 
  8. Detroit Lions – Roman Wilson, WR, Michigan 
  9. Baltimore Ravens – Javon Bullard, S, Georgia 
  10. San Fransisco 49ers – Ruke Orhorhoro, DL, Clemson 
  11. Houston Texans (via KC) – Trey Benson, RB, FSU
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A tribute to… the Hail Mary

While the rules of American football do not explicitly mention the Hail Mary pass, it remains a thrilling aspect of the game. There’s little else that evokes the same anticipation, or suggests the same desperation, as these all-or-nothing, everything-on-the-line moments. In this first in an occasional series of off-season articles about some of the game’s much-loved but rarer plays, Sean Tyler explores the history of the Hail Mary in the NFL, outlines the tactics and techniques behind it, and revisits some of the greatest Hail Marys from years gone by.

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How it all began

Because it’s not part of the game’s official lexicon, the term wasn’t coined by a coach, owner or even a commentator. In footballing terms, the expression dates back to October 1922, when players from Notre Dame (a Catholic university) twice said a prayer in the huddle before plays against Georgia Tech – and scored touchdowns in both instances.

As for the NFL, the first recorded reference came several decades later from Roger Staubach, the Dallas Cowboys quarterback. In a divisional playoff game against the Minnesota Vikings in December 1975, with just 32 seconds on the clock and Dallas trailing by four, legendary Head Coach Tom Landry called for a long pass and Staubach launched one from the halfway line. The slightly underthrown ball was tipped by receiver Drew Pearson five yards shy of the paint but he somehow trapped it between his arm and hip before taking it in for the winning score. Afterwards, Landry said “Our only hope was to throw it and hope for a miracle,” while Staubach – a devout Catholic – told reporters, “I just closed my eyes and said a Hail Mary.” The term appeared in several newspaper headlines the following day and has been part of NFL folklore ever since.

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Mindset and mechanics

The prayer in question (“Hail Mary, full of grace, the Lord is with thee…”) eludes to summoning help from the powers that be to successfully make a long, low-probability, chuck-it-and-hope throw. Usually attempted when a team is too far from the end zone to try something more conventional, the term implies that it would take a miracle for the play to succeed – which is why we love it when it does. That success relies on several factors coming together in the perfect storm: the strength and technique of the quarterback, whether there’s enough time for the receiver(s) to get downfield, whether the opposing team can defend it and, in most cases, a massive slice of good fortune.

So how do you shift the odds in your favour? Well, according to Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers, you practice. During his three years as an understudy to Brett Favre, he performed countless reps. “I got used to what it felt like, height and distance wise,” he told ESPN in a great article in 2019. “I’ve always been a little nerdy about that – watching the ball, seeing where it would land, remembering what that throw felt like. Was it all out? Was it 90 percent? Was it 80 percent? And just kind of locking those things away.”

As for Vikings QB Kirk Cousins, who has both a college and an NFL Hail Mary to his name, time is also crucial. “Can you find time in the pocket or can you escape the pocket and step up? By the time you run around a little bit, the receiver is in the end zone where you want them. It helps if you can buy as much time as possible, let the receivers get underneath the ball as it comes down.” And the numbers bear that out. According to ESPN tracking, the average time before a Hail Mary is thrown is 4.75 seconds – almost twice as long as a normal play.

So what about trajectory? The throw must go high and far enough to reach the end zone but not go out of the back – that’s quite a tight window if you’re 50 yards or more away. Quarterbacks tend to pull their arms farther back than normal and Cousins tilts his shoulders, with the front shoulder up and back shoulder down. “That will put the arc on it,” he confirms. “You want the ball coming down at the receivers. You don’t want a driven ball.”

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A RARE TREAT: Due to the degree of difficulty, most attempts aren’t completed. In fact, there have only been 34 successful Hail Marys in the professional game since Staubach’s effort nearly 50 years ago.

All hail King Rodgers

While the Hail Mary is often seen as a last-ditch effort, some players have developed a reputation for launching long, accurate passes in clutch moments. Since Staubach, there have been several successful proponents of the Hail Mary. And where better to start than with the best of the best, Aaron Rodgers, who (thanks to all that practice) is the only quarterback with three successful NFL Hail Marys to his name.

One of the most famous of all time, christened the ‘Miracle in Motown’ by broadcaster Jim Nantz, came on the final play of a Thursday night game in December 2015 against the Packers’ NFC North rivals, the Detroit Lions. Because of a face mask penalty on the previous play, Green Bay – who’d been trailing most of the game – were given an extra play with no time on the clock. After the snap, Rodgers broke left to buy time while his receivers rushed downfield. Then he scrambled to the right to evade pressure and hurled a howitzer from his own 35-yard line. It dropped inside the end zone, where it was caught by the 6’4” Richard Rodgers II in front of a gaggle of Detroit players. (The tight end also caught a 67-yarder from Carson Wentz as a Philadelphia Eagle in 2020.)

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The Rodgers-to-Rodgers connection, which brought a dramatic 27-23 victory, is still the longest Hail Mary touchdown in NFL history. According to estimations at the time, the ball travelled 69 yards and almost hit the rafters at Ford Field. Breaking it down afterwards, then-HC Mike McCarthy said: “When you throw it with that arc, it gives guys a chance to fight for position. And Richard is the perfect guy for that type of situation, with his ability to go up and high-point the football.”

Having won the NFL Play of the Year Award for the 2015 season for that one, Rodgers threw another just weeks later. This time, Green Bay were facing the Arizona Cardinals in the 2015 NFC Divisional Playoff game. Down by seven and with seconds remaining, Rodgers heaved another desperation pass into the end zone while Marcus Golden and others rushed to close him down. This time, the ball was caught by receiver Jeff Janis and the 41-yard reception sent the game into overtime (although the Cardinals ultimately prevailed).

Rodgers, the unofficial yet undisputed ‘King of the Hail Mary’, then uncorked a third the following year – again in the postseason. In the NFC Wild Card Game against the New York Giants, he let it fly from the 53-yard-line with the last play of the first half and Randall Cobb took the catch at the back of the end zone. Rodgers’ three career Hail Marys, which came during a span of just 13 months, travelled a combined 172 yards.

Talking on Pat McAfee’s show years later, Rodgers raised another interesting factor: the inability of defensive players to read the flight of the ball. “I think it just comes down to the way you throw it,” he said. “If you take out the Jeff Janis one, the other two I was trying to get to a clean spot and throw it as high as possible. On both of those, I think there was a misjudgement by a majority of the players as to where the ball was going to come down.”

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A LONG SHOT… IN EVERY SENSE OF THE WORD: According to ESPN Stats and Information, only 9.7% of the 193 attempts from 2009 to 2019 were completed.

Double trouble: Dalton and Couch

Looking back through the annals of NFL history, there have been several other notable exponents of the Hail Mary. In particular, a couple of QBs from the AFC North have managed the feat twice (as has Russell Wilson, and we’ll come to him shortly).

In a 2013 battle with the Cincinnati Bengals, the Baltimore Ravens were leading 17-10 when, on the last play, Cincy’s Andy Dalton launched a 51-yard lob to the end zone on a 4th-and-15. The ball was deflected twice, once by each team, and while everyone else fell to the deck, the ball fell to AJ Green for a touchdown that forced overtime. The same pair teamed up three years later against the Browns, when the Red Rifle found Green with a 52-yard moonshot with seconds left in the first half. Again, there was some juggling and bobbling before Green pulled it into his chest for a 31-17 Bengals win.

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Staying in the division, in October 1999, the Cleveland Browns secured their first win as a returning expansion team with a Hail Mary against the New Orleans Saints. Quarterback Tim Couch avoided the pass rush and launched a 56-yard bomb that was tipped, then caught, by receiver Kevin Johnson. Three years later, Couch repeated the feat against the Jacksonville Jaguars, when his 50-yarder to a tightly covered Quincy Morgan (and the ensuing extra point) secured a 21-20 win. Couch remains the only player to win two NFL games on game-ending Hail Marys.

Before we move on from the Browns, we ought to mention another so-called ‘miracle’: The Miracle at the Met. This refers to Cleveland’s epic game at the Vikings’ old Metropolitan Stadium in December 1980, in which Minnesota came back from a 23-9 deficit to snatch victory in the last five minutes. The Vikes closed to within a point and, after forcing the Browns to punt, were left with 14 seconds, with the ball at their own 20. A crafty lateral pass (more of them another time) set up a 39-yard gain, leaving 41 yards still to go and just five seconds on the clock. NBC broadcaster Len Dawson predicted, “They’re gonna throw that ball up in the air and hope for a miracle” … and he wasn’t wrong. Three receivers lined up on the right and all ran go routes to the end zone, while Tommy Kramer (456 yards, 4 TDs) dropped back and heaved the ball into the crowd scene. A Browns defender tipped the ball but Ahmad Rashad caught it, with one hand, on the 1-yard line and took it in backwards for the score that sealed the NFC Central division title for Minnesota.

When Hail Marys become Fail Marys…

The original ‘Fail Mary’, as it became known, is a misnomer; it was actually a successful play. It occurred in 2012, during a contractual dispute with referees and umpires, when a replacement crew dominated the headlines in the Packers’ Monday night clash with the Seattle Seahawks. Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson threw a last-second attempt on a 4th-and-10 to Golden Tate, who was surrounded by three defenders in the end zone. Tate pushed one of them away without drawing a flag (hold that thought) but both he and MD Jennings gripped the ball with both hands as they fell to the ground. One referee signalled for a touchdown while another called it an INT. A replay confirmed the score, which resulted in a controversial 14-12 Seattle victory.

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That play is one of several that confirm the benefits of defensive players knocking the ball away – preferably down – rather that trying to intercept it but even that can go wrong. On the final play of a 2010 game in Jacksonville, Texans safety Glover Quin tried to knock down a David Garrard pass intended for Mike Sims-Walker with a double-handed, volleyball-style swat. Alas, it went straight into the hands of Jags receiver Mike Thomas, who brought the ball under control and stepped into the end zone for the winning score.

The Tate TD also highlights the fact that players on both sides are essentially immune from pass-interference flags on a Hail Mary, largely because the NFL doesn’t want a game to be decided on a penalty. Most attempts turn into rugby scrums and no one seems to bat an eyelid. The other dilemma facing defensive coaches is whether to take your chances at the line of scrimmage and send in the pass rush or pull more bodies back to defend the ball down the field. That’s a case of pick your own poison and there’s no right answer.

HOT AND COLD STREAKS: There have been three seasons (2012, 2015 and 2016) with three successful Hail Marys each, while only one was completed between 2003 and 2009.

… and Oh Hell Marys

Because it’s such a high-risk, high-reward play, a Hail Mary can go spectacularly awry and I don’t mean the ‘it didn’t quite work’ kind of wrong; I mean ‘handing the other team seven points’ wrong. Indeed, that happened just three months ago, in Week 12 of the 2023 season, in what might be one of the most ‘Jets’ plays ever.

Trailing 10-6 with the first half all but over, New York Jets QB Tim Boyle unleashed a ball 57 yards through the air. Alas, it went straight to Miami Dolphins safety Jevon Holland on the 1-yard line, and he ran it back for the first Hail Mary returned for a touchdown since ESPN began tracking them in 2006. Starting from the back-left of the field, he ended up at the opposite corner, having run for 124 yards. Picking up critical blocks from Christian Wilkins, Bradley Chubb and Jerome Baker along the way, he left the Jets players sprawling in his wake as he completed his incredible 99-yard pick six.

Despite going on to lose 34-13, Jets running back Breece Hall had no beef with the decision to try a Hail Mary. “It makes perfect sense to me,” he said. “You get the ball at the 50, you throw it at the end zone. When you stop thinking like that, that’s when you’re passive, and I don’t want to be a part of a passive offense. I’m happy we went for it.”

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THE LATEST (SUCCESSFUL) HAIL MARY: In Week 2 of the 2023 season, the Washington Commanders fought back from 21-3 down to lead the Denver Broncos 35–27. With three seconds remaining, Russell Wilson heaved a pass from midfield that was deflected twice before Brandon Johnson caught the TD, giving the QB his second career Hail Mary completion. Alas, Denver failed to convert the ensuing two-point conversion so it was all in vain.

A personal favourite: the Hail Murray

With 35 Hail Marys in the NFL record books, it’s impossible to summarise them all here. But before we finish, let’s revisit one more corker that wasn’t scripted. It was a play that unravelled and the quarterback in question just had to wing it.

The so-called ‘Hail Murray’ occurred when the Cardinals hosted the Buffalo Bills in November 2020. Down 30-26 with 11 seconds remaining and with no timeouts left, the intended target Andy Isabella – running a crossing route – couldn’t get open on a 1st-and-10. The diminutive Kyler Murray evaded a would-be sack from Mario Addison but with two Bills lineman barrelling towards him, it was clear that the play was breaking down, there was nowhere for him to scramble to and time was ebbing away. He was left with no other choice but to hurl it 43 yards downfield and hope for the best. Wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins, the only Arizona player to reach the end zone, somehow climbed the ladder and caught the ball, his hands rising through those of Jordan Poyer, Tre’Davious White and Micah Hyde to seal a stunning 32-30 comeback victory.

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Here’s just a taste of how that amazing moment, which won the NFL Play of the Year Award, was described by the radio announcers who cover the Cardinals on KVMP FM. (The fact that it’s nearly all in capitals tells you everything…)

Dave Pasch: “Murray back to throw, flushed out, rolling left in trouble, slips a tackle, gotta launch it, he does, left side, into the end zone, jump ball, and it is… is it caught?! Is it caught?! OH MY GOODNESS, IT’S CAUGHT! DEANDRE HOPKINS CAUGHT IT! HE CAUGHT IT FOR A TOUCHDOWN! WITH ONE SECOND LEFT! I CAN’T BELIEVE IT! YOU’VE GOTTA BE JOKING ME! HOPKINS… REACHES UP WITH THREE DEFENDERS AROUND HIM AND PULLS IT IN! THE CARDINALS LEAD 32-30 WITH A SECOND LEFT!”

Ron Wolfley: “YOU! CAN’T! COVER! ‘NUK! YOU’RE NOT GONNA BE ABLE TO COVER HIM! THROW THE BALL UP! THAT’S WHAT KYLER MURRAY DID! HE EXTENDED THE PLAY WITH HIS LEGS! AND JUST CHUCKED THAT THING UP INTO THE AIR! INTO THE DESERT SKY, BABY! AND D-HOP BROUGHT IT DOWN! TOUCHDOWN!”

Wow. Goosebumps.

Long live the long throw

Since Staubach’s post-game comment half a century ago, the Hail Mary has (somewhat fittingly) come a long way. It is now less of a desperate call for divine intervention and more often a deliberate, strategic play that a cannon-armed quarterback can pull out of the bag when needed. It embodies everything we love about football: skill and strength for sure, but also unpredictability, hope and a little bit of luck.

So, please join me in raising a glass to the Hail Mary: a rare beast, but far from endangered. Rather, it has become an integral part of the NFL’s rich tapestry and, as these examples hopefully illustrate, brought us some of the most dramatic and celebrated moments in league history. That’s why I’m certain that, as long as there are a few seconds on the clock, half a field still to gain and a result hanging in the balance, the Hail Mary will continue to captivate NFL fans.

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PICK SIX – Conference Championship Games

Four teams. Two Championship deciders. One game remaining. The ever-decreasing numbers leave Sean Tyler diving deeper into the detail so this week, our scribe shines a spotlight on the Chiefs defense, a pass-and-catch by Lamar, a crucial four-minute spell that save the Niners and some costly errors by the Lions.

In Spags we trust

Much will be made of Kansas City’s offensive stars in their 17-10 win over the Ravens on Sunday night. Patrick Mahomes was successful with 75% of his passes (30 of 39), Travis Kelce caught all 11 of his targets for 116 receiving yards and a touchdown, and Isiah Pacheco barged his way to 68 rushing yards and a score. All very impressive. But in restricting the free-scoring Ravens to just 10 points, Steve Spagnuolo’s defense – even without Willie Gay, who was ruled out before the game with a neck issue – should take much of the credit for this one. The Chiefs got touchdowns on their first two possessions and that proved to be enough to win. As safety Justin Reid said postgame, “Spags is a magician. His feel for the game, his timing of the calls, when to bring pressure and when to fake it. We have a plan for everything.”

Over the last couple of months, Lamar Jackson has been superb and Baltimore have looked imperious, coming into this game as 4.5-point favourites on merit. However, KC’s Defensive Coordinator stuck to his pressure-heavy approach and his boys blitzed Lamar 20 times – and it worked. The Chiefs D came away with four sacks, three QB hits and five passes batted down, allowed only three third-down conversions and conceded just 22-and-a-half minutes of possession to their opponents.

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Jackson, this year’s yet-to-be-crowned MVP, has been slicing and dicing teams for fun of late but KC somehow managed to pen him in the pocket from all sides, put him under pass-rush pressure and cover his downfield receivers all at once. George Karlaftis, Justin Reid, Charles Omenihu and Tershawn Wharton all brought him down, with Omenihu’s strip sack resulting in a fumble recovery (before he suffered an ACL injury that ends his season). Then, deep into the fourth quarter, Jackson was hurried into a deep ball into a crowded end zone. It was intended for Isaiah Likely but found the hands of Chiefs safety Deon Bush. With Baltimore’s OC Todd Monken relying on his QB to do the heavy lifting (Justice Hill and Gus Edwards combined for just six rushes), it wasn’t a balanced display from a team that normally relies much more on the ground game. They fell short and frustratingly, Lamar couldn’t carry the team by himself.

Even Mahomes has learned that it’s OK to lean on his defensive colleagues; it’s a team game after all. Should the Chiefs beat San Francisco next weekend and lift the Lombardi once more, Mahomes and Kelce (and Taylor bloody Swift) will inevitably dominate the headlines. But the ‘In Spags We Trust’ t-shirts, donned by KC’s defensive players during the warm-up at M&T Bank Stadium, will be out in force again.

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In spats we trust

Talking of warm-ups, who doesn’t appreciate a bit of childish nonsense between opposing players before a game? During their pregame routines, Travis Kelce and Patrick Mahomes were seen throwing Ravens kicker Justin Tucker’s equipment away. The kerfuffle quickly went viral, adding some extra spice to the contest but alas, a day later, Tucker dismissed the interaction as a storm in a teacup.

“It’s kind of silly that we’re even having to address something that happened before the game that I really don’t see as a big deal,” he said. “But for those that don’t know the way it works, each kicker goes to the other team’s designated warm-up area. I’ve been doing the exact same thing for 12 years and never had a problem with anybody. That’s just the way kickers around the league have always done it.”

Kelce told Tucker he needed to move because Mahomes had to warm up, then took matters into his own hands by kicking his ball away and tossing his helmet to the side. As Tucker explained, “While I was on the ground stretching, Travis asked if I could move my helmet. I happily got up and moved my helmet out of the way, or so I thought. And then Travis comes over and he just kicks my stuff and throws my helmet. I thought it was all just some gamesmanship, you know? All in good fun.”

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It seems that Mahomes and Kelce were miffed by Tucker’s presence but the kicker added “Those are two of the best players that have ever played the game. Obviously, it’s an intense environment but at the end of the day, they’re just trying to get ready for a football game.”

So there you have it, right from the horse’s mouth. The spat was something about nothing. You can step away now, there’s nothing to see here.

The need for Sneed

The 10 points posted by the Ravens equalled their season low but if it wasn’t for a crucial game-defining turnover near the goal line, it could have been a different story.

Early in the fourth quarter, Zay Flowers did his best to get seven on the board for his team, reaching out for the end zone to cap a 7-yard catch-and-run. But with the tip of the ball just shy of the line, Chiefs cornerback L’Jarius Sneed punched the ball out of his grasp. The Ravens rookie receiver initially thought he’d broken the plane but replays confirmed the fumble, which was recovered by Trent McDuffie, was the correct call. Flowers was clearly frustrated after the play, throwing his helmet and apparently cutting his hand in the process. When asked if he thought he’d scored, he replied “Yeah, I thought I did, honestly. But I’ll learn from my mistakes.”

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In his defence, Flowers was being a bit hard on himself. It wasn’t a mistake, just a great play by Sneed that snatched much-needed points away from the Ravens. In fact, Flowers led his team with five receptions for 115 yards (including a 54-yarder) and a touchdown. The would-be TD appeared to have made up for a taunting penalty earlier in the drive, when he put Sneed on the deck but alas, Flowers was an inch or two away from his second score of the game.

The Ravens are 0-8 when committing three or more turnovers in the postseason and the only other time they’ve committed three this season, in Week 5 against the Steelers, also resulted in a loss. Therefore, it should be no surprise that with Lamar Jackson accounting for two others – a strip-sack early in the second quarter and a desperation throw into triple coverage – the turnover battle proved to be the difference in this closely contested game.

Lamar wins MOTY (Multi-tasker of the Year)

If you’d read the play-by-play descriptions of the Chiefs/Ravens game on NFL.com without having seen the highlights, you may have been confused by one snippet from the second quarter:

13 Yard Pass
(5:38) (Shotgun) L. Jackson pass short left to L. Jackson to BAL 31 for 13 yards (D. Tranquill).

Yes, Lamar threw a pass… to himself!

The eye-catching play happened on a 2nd-and-5 on his own 18-yard line, when Jackson the quarterback had a pass tipped at the line of scrimmage by Justin Reid. The ball deflected up into the air but Jackson the receiver ran forward and pulled in the ball himself, eventually taking it for 13 yards. The crazy play is now the longest postseason completion by a player to himself in the Super Bowl era.

Summing up how the game went, however, the Ravens couldn’t take advantage of the lucky break and four plays later, they were forced to punt the ball away.

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Niners turn tide in four minutes

After a regular season in which the 49ers didn’t have to make a single second-half comeback, the team has had to do so in back-to-back playoff games. They fought back from behind to see off the spirted Packers last week and had to dig themselves out of an even bigger hole this weekend, overcoming a 17-point deficit to beat the Detroit Lions. Trailing 24-7 at the break, Brock Purdy was struggling to push the ball downfield. But despite being down by three scores, with their season on the line, no one quit. No one panicked. No one even blinked.

The tide turned in four action-packed third-quarter minutes. Having opened the second half with a 43-yard Jake Moody field goal, the Niners defense crucially stopped the Lions on a 4th-and-2 (more on that one below). Having secured the turnover on downs with 7:03 left in the quarter, the Niners then got a bit of luck. A 51-yard pass to Brandon Aiyuk was overthrown by Purdy but the ball bounced off the facemask of cornerback Kindle Vildor as he fell backwards and into the clutches of a diving Aiyuk, just 4 yards shy of the paint (6:29).

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Three plays later, the same player connected with his QB to make it a one-score game (5:22). On the opening play of Detroit’s next possession, Jahmyr Gibbs gave up a fumble to Arik Armstead (5:15) on his own 24-yard line and the 49ers comeback was well and truly on. Much of the necessary yardage was made on a 21-yard Purdy scramble and the irrepressible Christian McCaffrey eventually punched it in from a yard out with 3:04 left in the quarter.

Those 14 unanswered points in four minutes flipped the script, with the Niners going on to right the wrongs from their last two NFC Championship games with a 34-31 victory and the Lions never recovering their swagger. In the first half, Detroit bagged three touchdowns and a successful FG but hit a wall after that, getting nothing from their first four possessions in the second half. In contrast, San Francisco’s 27 second-half points equal the third-largest comeback in a Conference Championship game so the lesson here is to never count the 49ers out, even though they’ve put together just three good quarters in the playoffs. Andy Reid, you have been warned.

Lions mistakes take their toll

You can understand Dan Campbell going for it, with the ultimate prize – a first Super Bowl appearance for his franchise – on the line. The ultra-aggressive Head Coach of the Lions has always played on the front foot, looking at achieving the best-possible outcome from any situation rather than fearing the worst. And you can’t knock it; that approach has defined his leadership over the last three years and it’s brought Detroit to the brink of the big one.

However, such a gung-ho style will inevitably fail at times and on those occasions, you’re bound to face some heat. And so it was in their loss to the Niners on Sunday, when Campbell’s decisions contributed to his team letting a 17-point lead slip through their fingers. (Yeah, the Lions couldn’t just lose in a ‘normal’ way, they had to do something spectacular.)

As referenced above, the Lions faced a 4th-and-2, within field goal range, in the third quarter. Holding a 24-10 lead at that point, many a coach would have opted to take the potential three points from a 45-yard kick and reinstate a three-score lead. But maybe having the inconsistent Michael Badgley waiting in the wings convinced Campbell to try and keep the drive alive. Alas, the decision backfired as a wide-open Josh Reynolds couldn’t haul in Jared Goff’s pass.

“I felt really good about us converting and keeping our momentum,” a philosophical Campbell said afterwards. “It’s easy with hindsight, I get it. But I don’t regret those decisions. It’s hard, because we didn’t come through, it didn’t work out. And I understand the scrutiny I’ll get. It’s part of the gig.”

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There was also another play call he may want back. Trailing 34-24 with 1:05 left, the Lions faced a 3rd-and-goal from the 1-yard line. Campbell believed David Montgomery could run into the end zone with ease and, with all three timeouts in tact, would give his team a shot at forcing a three-and-out. Instead, Montgomery was dropped in the backfield for a loss of 2, and Campbell had to cash in a timeout. Jameson Williams caught a TD on the next play but with only two timeouts left, the Lions couldn’t stop San Francisco from running the clock down.

Sure, Campbell’s decisions will get the headlines, but the blame falls wider than that. Kindle Vildor’s facemask-ricochet interception to Brandon Aiyuk. Jahmyr Gibbs’ fumble. Another Reynolds drop. A missed downed punt at the 1-yard-line. Another failed fourth down when a 48-yard game-tying FG was on the cards. And lots of missed tackles in the open field. They all played a part. In the end, Detroit were just too error-prone, on and off the field, to withstand the onslaught of the 49ers’ second-half resurrection. But rest assured, if they iron out some of those blemishes, they’ll be a force to be reckoned with again next season.

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PICK SIX – Divisional Round

With only four games over the weekend, we’ve had to dive a little deeper this time, looking at individual players and even individual plays. With Shaun Blundell in the dog house (don’t worry, he’s just settling in a new pet pooch), Sean Tyler takes the reins and selects six aspects of the NFL’s Division Round to unpick.

Another Lamar-vellous performance

If you have Lamar Jackson on your team, you always have a chance, and if you have him playing at his best, then frankly, you have an unfair advantage. And so it proved on Saturday evening, when the No.1 seed Baltimore Ravens came off a week’s rest to put the spirited Houston Texans to the sword. Defying his 1-3 playoff record, Lamar went into full action hero mode in the Ravens’ 34-10 Divisional Round victory, throwing 16 of 22 for 152 yards and rushing 11 times for 100 more in a four-touchdown, zero-turnover performance.

Baltimore walked away with the spoils quite comfortably in the end but having gone into the break tied at 10-apiece, it wasn’t obvious that the dam was about to break. In fact, Lamar was blitzed time and again in the first two quarters, took three sacks – two in back-to-back plays – and ended the half with 23 net passing yards and just one TD pass to Nelson Agholor. It was an evenly matched contest up until that point, but something must have clicked into place in the locker room.

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In the second half, Jackson led four consecutive scoring drives, which ended in rushing TDs from 15 and 8 yards out – the latter saw him keep going through the back of the end zone, over the photographers and off down the tunnel – a TD pass to tight end Isaiah Likely and a 43-yard Justin Tucker field goal. Meanwhile, his defensive colleagues kept Houston at arm’s length, holding them to 213 total yards and no offensive scores.

Jackson is the first player in NFL history with two-plus passing TDs, two-plus rushing TDs, 100+ passing yards and 100+ rushing yards in a game, and must be nailed on to be the league MVP again. And on the back of his second playoff win, Baltimore progress to the AFC Championship game for the first time since 2012, when they last lifted the Lombardi. If Jackson is truly MVP-worthy, he needed to show more than a stellar regular season. There were still lingering doubts about his playoff credentials before this weekend but not any more; four TDs have a habit of silencing your critics.

Nonetheless, despite this impressive display, no one’s counting any chickens yet, least of all the man himself. “We’ve got to finish,” Jackson said after the game. “We’re still in the playoffs, not in the dance yet. I’m not even thinking of the Super Bowl until we handle business.” [ST]

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Jordan would Love a second chance

Even in the perfect game, I suspect every player is going to want one or two plays back. And in the Packers’ 24-21 loss to San Francisco on Saturday night, there are no prizes for guessing which one Jordan Love would nominate for a do-over.

After the Packers had gone behind for the final time, Love (194 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs) had just over a minute left, and three timeouts at his disposal, to get his team into field goal range. He picked up an initial first down but on the next set of downs, starting from his own 36-yard line, he got flushed out of the pocket and had to roll to the right.

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Instead of throwing the ball away or attempting to scramble for a few yards – but importantly, living to fight another play – he had a rush of blood to the head and forced an off-balance, on-the-run, underthrown wing-and-a-prayer throw back across the field into a sea of red jerseys. His intended target, Christian Watson, was outnumbered 3:1 by Niners and the nearest one, linebacker Dre Greenlaw, dived in for his second INT of the game.

It wasn’t this one attempt, or even Love’s play in general, that lost them the game; there were ample chances for Green Bay to seal the deal, not least when Anders Carlson’s 41-yard FG attempt drifted wide left earlier in the game. But the errant throw did put the final nail in the Packers’ fifth straight postseason loss to the 49ers in the last 10 years. It was ironic that their season ended on a turnover, considering that Love had thrown for 2,422 yards, 21 touchdowns and just one interception since Week 10. It’ll feel pretty raw for a while but unlike seasons past, Matt LaFleur’s young team – including their impressive young quarterback – are on an upward trajectory and have a lot to look forward to. [ST]

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The Mac attack

Christian McCaffrey is pretty good at the worst of times but when he’s enjoyed a couple of weeks’ recuperation, he’s lethal. In the 49ers’ come-from-behind win against Green Bay on Saturday, the dual-threat running back ran the rock 17 times for 98 yards (averaging 5.7) and rushed for two touchdowns, and caught seven of 12 targets for another 30 in the passing game.

It should be no surprise, given that Run CMC has absolutely dominated the regular season, with more than 2,000 total yards to his name. Not only did he lead the league with 1,459 rushing yards – nearly 300 more than his nearest rival, Derrick Henry – and 14 rushing TDs but he also posted 564 yards and seven TDs (the same as teammates Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel) as a receiver. If you look up ‘workhorse’ in the dictionary, I’m pretty sure you’ll find a picture of McCaffrey there.

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His first score, with the Niners 13-7 behind midway through the third quarter, was a 39-yard scamper where he just barged his way up the middle, made a couple of cuts to the left and broke out into the open field. His other TD, from 6 yards out, saw his O-line open up a big channel for him to run right through, with only Jonathan Owens able to get anywhere near him. That was the fatal blow: five plays later, Jordan Love threw his second pick and the game was over. But as ever, it wasn’t just the touchdowns. McCaffrey was effective on screen passes and several times, he just barrelled into the heart of the Packers’ defensive line with the ball cradled tightly in both arms, pumping his legs and breaking tackles to secure the required yardage.  

McCaffrey’s winning score gave the Niners their first second-half comeback of the season and on a night when they weren’t at their best – with special teams blunders, their defense giving up big plays and Brock Purdy being off-target for much of the night – they needed to lean on him. But I guess it shows that the 49ers can come from behind if required, and they may well have to do the same again this week in the NFC Championship game. [ST]

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Dan’s the man as Lions tame Bucs  

Famously, the Detroit Lions are one of only four NFL franchises never to reach a Super Bowl and after a slow start against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, doubts crept in as to whether this year’s version could keep the dream alive. Luckily, a raucous home crowd finally woke the team up to secure a 31-23 victory and advance to a conference championship game for the first time since 1991. 

In front of their fervent fans, the Lions epitomised the grit, determination and honest endeavour of their (Honolulu) blue-collar town. The game was tied at 17-17 going into the final quarter but Dan Campbell’s team somehow dug a little deeper and found that extra gear. Jared Goff threw for 287 yards and two touchdown passes. Amon-Ra St Brown led the team with 77 receiving yards and scored the game-sealing TD. Sam LaPorta had nine catches for 65 yards, while running back Jahmyr Gibbs scored a touchdown and gained 114 total yards.   

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But it wasn’t plain sailing by any means. Through their first six possessions, the Lions punted four times and crossed into Bucs territory just twice as Tampa’s HC Todd Bowles shut down their ground game. But this team knows how to stay calm and make the necessary adjustments. Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, who looks set to land a head coaching gig once Detroit’s season ends, didn’t panic in the face of adversity, he just used the passing game to open things up for Gibbs. Touchdowns followed on the Lions’ next three drives.

Detroit have set themselves up nicely for the next few years with a trio of emerging stars in Gibbs, St Brown and LaPorta but for me, the ace in the pack is Coach Campbell. Exactly three years ago, the former tight end made headlines for his infamous introductory press conference, when he said his team would be biting kneecaps off and kicking teeth in. And when he started 0-10-1 and then 4-19-1, the critics piled in and the vultures started to circle. But Campbell stuck to his guns and steadily turned it around, improving from a three-win team in 2021 to one that’s about to play its first NFC title game in 32 seasons.

For all his potty-mouthed passion, Metallica quotes and meme-fodder clichés (if you watched Hard Knocks, you’ll know), the guy can coach football, build a culture and lead a team. He gives his guys the kudos when things go well and clearly believes in them. They obviously believe in him too. Everyone inside the camp seems bought in and thinks they can go all the way. And now, after three decades in the wilderness, the Ford Field faithful can finally dare to believe too. [ST]

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KC’s killer combo

There are three things in life you can be sure of: death, taxes and a Mahomes-to-Kelce touchdown pass in a big playoff game. And that lethal connection – between the best QB and the best TE in the league – proved to be the undoing of the Buffalo Bills in a 27-24 Kansas City Chiefs win on Sunday night. The pair now have the most combined TDs (16) by any QB–receiver duo in NFL postseason history, overtaking Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski.

Ironically, Travis Kelce (who posted five catches for 75 yards) was in the middle of a seven-game spell without a touchdown, his second-longest drought of a very productive career. But in the second quarter, Kelce hauled in a 22-yard TD pass and after halftime, his red-and-yellow gloves stuck to a 3-yard throw and he fought his way over the line near the pylon before directing lovehearts towards girlfriend Taylor Swift and brother Jason in celebration. The 34-year-old now has 18 TDs in the playoffs, and could edge closer to Jerry Rice’s postseason record (22) next week in the AFC Championship decider.

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Having battled back from 6-6 with six straight wins, the Bills have essentially been playing playoff football for two months and were definitely the team with momentum. In contrast, KC have been more inconsistent of late, with their offense ranked just 15th in scoring. But with Patrick Mahomes and his number one target in determined mood, you write these perennial Super Bowl contenders off at your peril – even when Mahomes is playing his first playoff game on the road.

This growing AFC rivalry produced yet another classic. The lead changed five times and neither team led by more than seven points. But the Bills found a new way to lose to the Chiefs, who have extinguished their season in three of the past four playoffs. After succumbing 38-24 in the 2020 AFC Championship game, Buffalo came up short in an epic 42-36 overtime loss in the Divisional Round a year later. This time, the result was even closer and the jeopardy came in the form of a game-tying FG attempt with 1:47 remaining. Alas for Buffalo, Tyler Bass’ 44-yard kick swerved off to the right and the Chiefs ran the clock down.

While this loss may not hit as hard as the “13 second” game from 2021, the heartache from yet another close-but-no-cigar, what-might-have-been season will linger in Buffalo. Meanwhile, the Chiefs will have to sharpen up in a few areas – Mecole Hardman not fumbling the ball through the end zone for a turnover, for example – if they’re going to give the Baltimore Ravens a run for their money at M&T Bank Stadium this weekend. It’s another road trip for Mahomes, Kelce and co but as they’ve just proved, with that dynamic duo in their ranks, you can never rule them out. [ST]

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Baker proves he’s worth the dough

Moving on to his fourth team in two years, Baker Mayfield bet on himself at the start of this season by signing a one-year ‘prove it’ deal with Tampa Bay. Having ‘proven it’ by throwing for more than 4,000 yards, 28 TDs and 10 INTs, the wager seems to have paid off.

The Bucs backed their way into the playoffs by winning the sub-par NFC South, then beat the defending NFC champion Philadelphia Eagles in the Wild Card Round and gave the feisty Lions a scare on Sunday before bowing out 31-23. Mayfield had a lot to do with that run of success and on Sunday, he played his part too, trying to keep his team in the game as his defense struggled.

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Unfortunately, with the Buccaneers fighting back from a two-score deficit against Detroit, Baker threw a devastating interception with 1:35 remaining. He’d tried to squeeze a pass into tight end Cade Otton, but it was cut out by Derrick Barnes. The pick ended the game and the Bucs’ season, leaving the QB bent over, head in hands in horror and disbelief. Tampa’s first possession of the game had also ended in an INT, although that pass bounced right off Mike Evans’ hands. Nonetheless, despite the turnovers, and the four sacks, Mayfield rallied his troops time and again, completing 26 of 41 passes for 349 yards and three touchdown passes. 

After the game, he confirmed that he would like to return to the Gulf Coast of Florida in 2014, adding that he’d also like 30-year-old receiver Mike Evans, who had eight catches for 147 yards and a TD on Sunday, there with him. “The guy hasn’t regressed at all,” Mayfield said. “I think he had one of his best years. He makes my life easy. So yeah, if I’m back, I want Mike back. That guy’s a stud.”

HC Todd Bowles agreed that Mayfield has earned the right to return but with the franchise tag for QBs projected to be approaching $36 million in 2024, Bucs GM Jason Licht will need to do some financial jiggery-pokery. Licht also wants Evans to sign a new deal. After all, he is the franchise’s all-time leader in receptions, receiving yards, receiving TDs and total TDs, and has just become the only player in NFL history to surpass 1,000 receiving yards in 10 consecutive seasons. So however it shakes out, I suspect Mayfield and Evans will both be in demand… and in the money. [ST]

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PICK SIX – Week 17

Happy New Year everyone, we hope you all enjoyed some NFL action to close out 2023. It’s the penultimate week of the regular season and Shaun Blundell is here to complete the holiday season Pick Six with three things that caught his attention as we head into a new calendar year.

MVP now locked and loaded?

As little as a couple of weeks ago, there was no clear favourite for the NFL MVP award. Fast forward a fortnight and a certain Lamar Jackson seemingly has his hands firmly on the trophy. The latest instalment of Lamar brilliance came as the Baltimore Ravens locked up the No.1 seed in the AFC after a completely dominant display against the Miami Dolphins in Week 17. The final score was an eye-opening 56-19.

It was reminiscent of the opening game of the 2019 season when Jackson took over as starter and orchestrated an offensive masterclass that produced 59 points – ironically also against Miami. Jackson used his legs, running six times for 35 yards and picking up some key first downs. This, however, was mostly about Lamar the passer. Living mostly from the pocket, he gashed the Dolphins defense with throws to eight different weapons. Jackson finished the game 18 of 21 for 321 yards and five passing touchdowns, good for a perfect 158.3 passer rating on the day. Surely, it all but secures that MVP crown.

Jackson may well be the shining light but there is no doubt that Baltimore looks like the most complete team in the AFC heading towards the playoffs. The defense was its usual gritty self and caused trouble for Miami after making adjustments at the end of the first quarter. Geno Stone recorded his seventh interception of the season and Roquan Smith added another pick in this game. Justin Madubike continues his career year with his 13th sack as does Kyle Van Noy, who recorded his 8th of the campaign. Special teams also contributed, with a Justice Hill 78-yard kick return to begin the second half that extinguished any hopes of a miracle second-half Miami comeback.

A day to forget for the Dolphins was capped off with injuries to Bradley Chubb, Xavien Howard and Tua Tagovailoa. They head to a must-win game against the Bills to secure the division title, the No.2 seed and at least the chance of a couple of home playoff games. Meanwhile, the Ravens must now decide how to manage their stars as they have secured the first round bye. A couple of years ago, John Harbaugh regretted not getting some reps into guys in Week 18, so let’s see what he does this time around. [SB]

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Anyone for the South?

Both the NFC and AFC South division titles will be on the line in Week 18. It’s advantage Jacksonville and Tampa Bay at the moment, but three teams in both divisions are still alive heading into the finale.

The Bucs could have wrapped up the NFC South on Sunday but chose the wrong time for an offensive stinker against the Saints. A turnover-laden day meant they had a goose egg on the board until the fourth quarter in a game New Orleans comfortably won by 10 points. Baker Mayfield tossed two picks and Trey Palmer had a key fumble when the improbable comeback was threatened. It keeps the Saints alive when they battle the Falcons this week. Atlanta suffered a 37-17 humiliation to the Bears and another loss next week would surely secure the firing of Arthur Smith… so losing might be beneficial. That game will be irrelevant, however, if the Bucs defeat the Panthers.

On the AFC side, it was a different set of performances that set up the grand finale as all three of the teams in contention found wins. The playoff spot is the Jags’ to lose after they were able to ride the legs of Travis Etienne and the boot of Brandon McManus in a comfortable win over the aforementioned Panthers. They will be hoping to get Trevor Lawrence back this week in a must-win game. The Colts got a good day out of Jonathan Taylor as they outlasted the Raiders. His 96 rushing yards were a season-high mark and the Colts will certainly want more out of their investment moving forwards. The Texans welcomed back CJ Stroud in a comfortable victory over the Titans. I’m sure they are wondering what might have been had he not suffered the concussion that meant he missed the Browns matchup.

The NFL schedule means that either the Colts or the Texans will lead the division as we enter the final Sunday as they have been slated to play on Saturday evening. It will then be over to Jacksonville to see how they handle the pressure in what might end up being the last game for Mike Vrabel as HC in Tennessee. The NFC South will be the feature of the early window on Sunday. [SB]

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Chiefs secure West in unfamiliar fashion

The Kansas City Chiefs winning the AFC West is nothing new. In fact, it is getting repetitive now, to the tune of eight consecutive seasons. We usually purr about the explosive offense, the brilliance of speedy wide receivers, the brute strength of their tight ends or the ridiculous angles Patrick Mahomes releases the ball from to make something out of nothing. This year, however, we are talking about the defense and the kicker.

The champs were in another hole on Sunday, down 10 points to the Bengals who themselves were clinging on to their playoff lives. Jake Browning’s 1-yard scramble at the midpoint of the second quarter that opened up that double-digit lead turned out to be their last points of the day as the Chiefs defense and placekicker took over.

The Bengals mustered four punts and a pair of turnovers on downs the rest of the way. The crucial one – on the opening drive of the second half – saw Joe Mixon stuffed in the backfield by Willie Gay when faced with 4th-and-1 at KC’s 6-yard line. It was one of eight tackles for loss, along with six sacks, as the Bengals offensive line’s woes reopened. Back-to-back sacks on the final Cincy drive was the final nail in the coffin of a season that threatened to be over a month ago. It was officially extinguished as the clocks ticked over to 2024.

The Chiefs themselves moved the ball well in the second half in particular but continually stalled in the red zone. It will undoubtedly be an area that they look to tidy up but on this day, the boot of Harrison Butker proved enough. He was a perfect 6-6 on his field goal tries, with four of them coming from at least 43 yards away.

They may not have reached their usual scintillating levels of performance throughout the season but it is another postseason appearance secured and another contest at least in Arrowhead. The tantalising matchup will see whoever loses this Sunday’s game between the Bills and the Dolphins heading West for the contest. Kansas City may need to rely on the formula of defense and special teams to be the difference maker once more. [SB]

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PICK SIX – Week 16

Merry Christmas, everyone – we hope you had a good one. With Week 16 behind us and Week 17 looming, the NFL is coming at us thick and fast. And with the other demands of the festive season competing for our attention (you know, kids’n’that), we’ve decided to spread our Pick Six over the holiday season. So here, I’ve ‘picked three’ and my partner in crime Shaun Blundell will pick another three next week. We hope you understand. So here’s Puka, Pickens and the Detroit Lions for you.

On the third day of Pickmas…

… GM Les Snead and HC Sean McVay’s true love gave them a compensatory pick in Round 5 of the 2023 NFL Draft. And with that Day 3 selection back in April, the LA Rams chose a wide receiver from Brigham Young University, Puka Nacua. Eight months on, it seems they might have won Christmas with that pick.

Nacua is a very smiley man, has great hands and, according to his latest presser, finds everything “super fun”. Which is not surprising, given that he is fast becoming a solid bet for Offensive Rookie of the Year. With two games of the regular season remaining, Nacua has 96 receptions (third all-time among rookies), 1,327 receiving yards (fifth, but only 147 shy of the record) and five touchdown catches to his name, and now holds the rookie record for games with 150+ scrimmage yards (four), nudging ahead of Randy Moss and Ja’Marr Chase.

Last Thursday night, in the Rams’ 30-22 win over the New Orleans Saints, he may have had his best performance yet, giving all those intending to vote for a certain QB in Houston as OROTY pause for thought. Nacua hauled in nine receptions for a season-high 164 yards, including a 2-yard touchdown, recovered an onside kick and earned a first down with a 9-yard run that allowed LA to run out the clock.

Ever since Week 1, Nacua has given Matthew Stafford someone reliable to aim for while Cooper Kupp recovered from injury. While Kupp missed the first four games, Nacua had three 100-yard outings. His unexpected success has been a key reason why the Rams – tipped by many (including me) to struggle this year – have won five of the last six. That run has seen them rise from 3-6 to 8-7 and as the sixth seed in the NFC, their chances of postseason action are now up to 67%. If Nacua can help LA reach the playoffs and take the OROTY title in the process, I think that makes this season an unqualified success. [ST]

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Slim Pickens for Cincy

After three straight losses, two of which were to 2-10 teams, the Pittsburgh Steelers were looking like an old boxer, on the ropes and out of fire power. But there’s something about playing their AFC North foes from Cincinnati that gets them fired up. On Saturday, they came out of their corner like Mike Tyson in his prime and sent the Bengals home from Acrisure Stadium with two black eyes and a bloodied nose.

The Steelers were averaging just 16 points a game this year and have scored 30 points just twice in the last two seasons: the home game against the Bengals last year and the equivalent fixture this weekend. In amassing 397 total yards and 34 points, their two stand-out players this time were third-string QB Mason Rudolph and wide receiver George Pickens, who faced criticism for his lack of effort against the Colts last week. Together, these two unlikely heroes combined for almost 69% of their team’s passing yards and if you had that on your Christmas bingo card, I’d be staggered.

After their poor run of form, Mike Tomlin gave Rudolph the nod over Mitch Trubisky and it paid dividends from the off. On their second play of the game, the 58th quarterback to start an NFL game this season found Pickens on a post route. It should’ve have been a 10-yard gain but the former Georgia Bulldog turned on the afterburners and left the Cincy secondary for dead on an 86-yard TD catch and run. But Pickens wasn’t done by any means. On a career day, he also caught a 66-yard TD pass from Rudolph, leaving CB Chidobe Awuzie in his wake, and made a spectacular 44-yard catch, somehow getting both heels in bounds as he fell backwards clutching the ball. All told, Pickens racked up 195 yards and 2 TDs on just four receptions.

On the other side of the ball, Pittsburgh’s depleted D (without four safeties and three inside linebackers) only shipped 11 points, held the Bengals to 59 rushing yards and sacked Jake Browning three times. They also secured three INTs, courtesy of Eric Rowe, elevated from the practice squad, Patrick Peterson, who was playing safety to cover for injuries, and Alex Highsmith.

After three losses, the Steelers came to play this week – and play they did. The loss dumps Cincinnati out of the AFC playoff picture (10th) but the victors are also on the outside looking in, just one spot ahead. With two games left, either of these 8-7 teams could still mathematically make the postseason but it’s increasingly unlikely. But whatever transpires over the next fortnight, the Steelers have swept the Bengals and can at least claim bragging rights over their divisional rivals till next season. [ST]

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Lions keep pedal to the metal

Head Coach Dan Campbell has done what no one else has done since 1993: win a divisional title with the Detroit Lions. And in the words of his beloved Metallica, Nothing Else Matters.

The Lions dispatched their rivals from Minnesota with a 30-24 win that gives the team their first playoff berth since 2016, and their first-ever NFC North crown. There’s been a steady improvement under Campbell, from his inaugural 3-13 campaign, through last year’s 9-8, to their current record of 11-4, which equals their most wins this century. If you include last season’s 8-2 finish, Campbell’s Lions are 19-6 over their last 25 games, making him a worthy Coach of the Year candidate.

The win against the Vikings saw Detroit’s defense come away with four interceptions and four sacks, but Nick Mullens did gash them for over 400 yards. Still, Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St Brown did the business offensively. Gibbs ended up with 100 scrimmage yards and two rushing TDs while St Brown added 12 catches for 106 receiving yards and a touchdown, becoming only the fourth player in NFL history to have 300+ receptions in their first three seasons. After the win, Campbell got emotional as he dedicated the win to the “old guard” of players who suffered through the team’s barren years.

With this latest triumph in an impressively consistent campaign, the Lions keep themselves in the hunt for the NFC’s No.1 seed and are now assured of finishing no worse than third in the conference. This means that Ford Field will host a playoff game for the first time since it opened in 2002. The division-clinching victory also means that Campbell and his players have the opportunity to end the franchise’s 32-year wait for a postseason victory. So while it was a Merry Christmas in the Motor City, the team need to keep grinding down the stretch to make sure the fairytale doesn’t end after chapter 1. [ST]

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Playoffs: Who’s in and who’s out in the AFC? 

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It’s that time of year when we start seeing graphics on X (formerly known as Twitter) from ESPN, FOX and CBS about who is eliminated from playoff contention and who has clinched a playoff berth. 

While the AFC has some frontrunners the race for the wildcard spots is encapsulating viewing, for example, the AFC South has three teams on 8-6 alone. 

Let’s dive into the playoff picture, see who everyone still has to play and how the playoff picture may end up working itself out. 

The locks: 

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While this article is mostly about discussing the convoluted wildcard picture, we should pay homage to the teams at the top of the conference who are already locks to make it in. 

The Baltimore Ravens have already clinched their place in the playoffs, while the Miami Dolphins and Kansas City Chiefs are definitely making the playoffs and will be playing at least one home game this January. 

Watch out for the week 17 clash as Miami heads into Baltimore in a matchup that could define who earns the all-important one seed in the AFC.

Jacksonville Jaguars: 

The Jaguars get their own tier because they’re definitely in, but aren’t 100% locked into the top of the AFC South (yet).

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Their schedule is one of the easiest down the stretch, they travel across Florida to play the resurgent, playoff-chasing, Tampa Bay Buccaneers this weekend before playing the Carolina Panthers and Tennesee Titans who are both out of the playoff picture. 

Jacksonville should win out from here thanks to their head-to-head record against the Indianapolis Colts and the Houston Texans, if they can achieve that they will be top of the AFC South and earn themselves the fourth seed in the AFC.

Cleveland Browns:

The Browns are in and Kevin Stefanski needs to be nominated for Coach of the Year after his miraculous work with this team despite all of their injuries. 

They’re 9-5 and probably need one more win to solidify their position in the playoffs, (albeit a wildcard place due to the Ravens’ record atop the AFC North) their schedule is a tough one though. 

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Facing exclusively AFC opponents, Joe Flacco will be the signal-caller as they head to the Texans and the Cincinnati Bengals on either side of a home meeting with the New York Jets. 

While they’re all but in themselves the Browns could play a huge role in the rest of the AFC Wildcard picture playing two of the chasing pack both on the road.

The rest: 

Now, we’ve named five teams who are in for sure, most seasons we’d be discussing three or four teams who are fighting it out for the final two wildcard spots. 

Not in 2023, this year the AFC is a gauntlet, we have a six-horse race for the final two wildcard spots as we head into the latter part of December. 

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As of week 15, the Bengals and Colts are occupying the final two spots with 8-6 records, just outside because of tiebreakers are the Bills and Texans, while the Pittsburgh Steelers and Denver Broncos are a game back at 7-7. 

Four of the six are playing backup quarterbacks and the Broncos and Bills have both experienced torrid runs at some stage this season. 

Yet somehow, with three weeks to go, every team is in the thick of the playoff race and it’s looking to be the most compelling run-in we’ve seen in a while. 

Who does everyone face? :

Buffalo Bills (8-6) – @ Chargers, vs Patriots, @ Dolphins 

Cincinnati Bengals (8-6) – @ Steelers, @ Chiefs, vs Browns 

Denver Broncos (7-7) – vs Patriots, vs Chargers, @ Raiders

Houston Texans (8-6) – vs Browns, vs Titans, @ Colts 

Indianapolis Colts (8-6) – @ Falcons, vs Raiders, vs Texans

Pittsburgh Steelers (7-7) – vs Bengals, @ Seahawks, @ Ravens 

Who’s in and who’s out? : 

It’s impossible to call, none of these teams convince you that they’re going to run away with it and stroll into the wildcard places, but we can make some educated predictions. 

By the end of week 18, there’s the possibility that we see three teams with 11-6 records in the wildcard spots and two teams sitting on the outside looking with 10 wins and no postseason to show for it, on the contrary, in the NFC we could see teams with losing records make it into the playoffs.

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Buffalo Bills (Current record: 8-6, vs division 2-2, vs AFC 4-5, AFC games remaining – 3, Ninth seed)

Starting with the Bills, they have been rampant since losing to the Broncos on Monday Night Football in early November, despite being unlucky in the early half of the season they’re now earning their own luck and convincingly stringing together strong performances. 

They beat the Chiefs in Arrowhead and blew out the Dallas Cowboys at home, building some strong momentum ahead of their final three games. 

Given their form they should brush past the Chargers and the Patriots and Bills Mafia will have their trip to division rivals, the Dolphins in week 18 earmarked as a potential ‘win and in’ game. 

What complicates that, of course, is Miami could still be playing for the one seed in week 18 so won’t be pulling any punches, conversely, the Bills could find themselves in a situation where, if they win they win the entire AFC East, but if they lose they don’t make the playoffs at all.

Either way, it promises to be a show-stopping game that will likely head the national Sunday Night Football billing in week 18. 

Key game: Week 18 @ Miami Dolphins

Prediction: 10-7

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Cincinnati Bengals (Current record: 8-6, vs division 0-4, vs AFC 3-6, AFC games rem. 3, sixth seed)

When Joe Burrow got hurt it felt like most of the league had given up on the Bengals, no one would have been talking about them being a leading horse in the AFC playoff picture as of week 16. 

As it turns out, Lou Anarumo’s defence has done excellently keeping them in games allowing backup quarterback Jake Browning to play with little pressure and do enough to get them across the line in close games.

The Bengals face a tough schedule though and it’s difficult to see them going any better than 1-2 over this stretch. 

The best they can hope for is beating Pittsburgh on the road (an extremely tough task) and then beating the Browns who may have nothing to play for in week 18 at home. 

Key game: Week 16 @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Prediction: 8-9

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Denver Broncos (Current record: 7-7, vs div. 2-2, vs AFC 4-5, AFC games rem. 3, 11th seed)

The Broncos have the easiest schedule of the chasing pack and do hold the tiebreaker over the Bills as well as facing three beatable AFC opponents in their final three games. 

After starting 1-5 no one expected the Broncos to be anywhere near this conversation and it’s a credit to Sean Payton and Vance Joseph that the Broncos have a chance to make it in. 

The Texans hold a tiebreaker over the Broncos which could be a key factor to follow but facing three backup quarterbacks against teams that have nothing to play for may come into the Broncos’ favour.

Already being a game back at 7-7 their task is simple, you MUST win out and hope some of the teams around them drop games against other playoff chasers, or perhaps even slip up on a nonchalant game against a team that is already eliminated.

Key game: Week 18 @ Las Vegas Raiders

Prediction: 10-7

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Houston Texans (Current record: 8-6, vs div. 2-2, vs AFC 5-4, AFC games rem. 3, eighth seed)

Demeco Ryans is the probable front-runner for Coach of the Year, and for good reason. He’s totally transformed the Texans from a number-one pick candidate to a playoff contender overnight. 

CJ Stroud’s play at quarterback has been phenomenal and stands him in good stead to pick up the Offensive Rookie of the Year award at NFL Honours this February.

However, with Stroud in concussion protocol and Case Keenum starting at quarterback, partnered with a tough schedule featuring two playoff contenders and a division rival, the Texans face a huge challenge to make it in. 

They’re capable of beating anyone on their day and their next two games being at home helps massively, but they won’t want to be in a position requiring them to win on the road in Indianapolis in week 18 if they can help it.

Key game: Week 18 @ Indianapolis Colts

Prediction: 9-8

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Indianapolis Colts (Current record: 8-6, vs div. 3-2, vs AFC 6-4, AFC games rem. 2, seventh seed) 

The Colts have been on a rollercoaster ride in 2023, going from inconsistent, yet mesmerising play under rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson, to the return of ‘Minshew Mania’, the Colts have continued to defy the odds. 

They have the best standing of any of the teams we’ve discussed because their divisional and conference records are superior to any team, but they also have one of the more inconsistent track records of any of the teams that we’ve looked at. 

They scraped past the Patriots in Germany, had a shootout with the Browns, were blown out against the Bengals and blew the Steelers out themselves, it’s so difficult to try and place the Colts on this list because they can go toe-to-toe with the best, but drop a game to absolutely anyone. 

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In week 16 they will head to the Atlanta Falcons who are a game back from the playoffs in the NFC South but are coming off the back of an embarrassing loss to the Carolina Panthers last week and somewhat mirror the Colts in their inconsistencies. 

Arthur Smith is on the hot seat and has resorted to his third quarterback change of the year opting for Taylor Heinicke and this is a game that the inconsistent Colts could drop given their record across the season as previously highlighted.

In their last two games, they welcome the Raiders who can cause any team problems on their day under interim head coach Antonio Pierce, and then fellow AFC South playoff hopefuls the Houston Texans in week 18. 

They’re the toughest team to place but given their divisional and conference records they’re certainly the favourites to make the wildcard round out of all the teams in the race. 

Key game: Week 18 vs Houston Texans

Prediction: 11-6

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Pittsburgh Steelers (Current record: 7-7, vs div. 3-1, vs AFC 5-5, AFC games rem. 2, 10th seed)

It’s well-documented that the Steelers have never had a losing record under head coach Mike Tomlin in his 16 years as head coach in the Steel City. 

While that streak could very much continue it’s difficult to see a scenario where the Steelers come out of their last three games as a wildcard team. 

They’d need to run the table due to their 7-7 record and they face three teams all with their eyes set on the post-season themselves. 

They welcome the Bengals in a huge game on Saturday before travelling across the country to Seattle to play the Seahawks who are currently one game out of the NFC wildcard picture before heading back across to Baltimore in week 18 who may be playing to secure the one seed. 

It’s certainly plausible that the Steelers win two of those games to preserve Tomlin’s streak but they will need to win out to even stand a chance, of getting into the playoffs. 

Key game: Week 16 vs Bengals 

Prediction: 8-9

Final Prediction: 

  1. Baltimore Ravens (13-4) 
  2. Kansas City Chiefs (12-5) Head-to-head tiebreaker vs Miami
  3. Miami Dolphins (12-5)
  4. Jacksonville Jaguars (11-6)
  5. Cleveland Browns (11-6) Head-to-head tiebreaker vs Indianapolis (WC)
  6. Indianapolis Colts (11-6) (WC)
  7. Denver Broncos (10-7) Head-to-head record vs Buffalo (WC)
  8. Buffalo Bills (10-7) (OUT)
  9. Houston Texans (9-8) (OUT)
  10. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-9) Division record tiebreaker (OUT)
  11. Cincinnati Bengals (8-9) (OUT)
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PICK SIX – Week 15

With three weeks of the regular season still to go, the playoff picture is starting to take shape. Four teams – the 49ers, Cowboys, Eagles and Ravens – are now guaranteed postseason action while six others – the Titans, Jets, Patriots, Commanders, Cardinals and Panthers – are officially out of the running and looking ahead to next year already. Week 15 saw a lot of movement in the race for the remaining slots so Shaun Blundell and Sean Tyler have picked six of the biggest talking points to explore in more depth.

Resurgent Raiders on cloud nine

The Bentley Continental GT, BMW M760i and Subaru Impreza WRX can all go from 0 to 60 in about four seconds. And in the football equivalent, the Las Vegas Raiders went from 0 to 60 in four days.

After one of the year’s worst performances – a 3-0 loss to the Vikings last Sunday – the Raiders didn’t inspire confidence coming into Thursday Night Football. Their offense had the second-fewest passing touchdowns (11), the most interceptions (18) and the fewest yards per carry (3.5). Their opponents, the LA Chargers, eventually put up 21 points so you’d be excused for thinking that Brandon Staley’s Bolts might have secured a win. But no, it was a proper AFC West beatdown the other way, with the Raiders posting three times that total. Yes, they scored 63, with three touchdowns in their first three drives, six in the first half and nine altogether (via a franchise-record eight different scorers). They were in complete control from minute one while the Chargers looked outplayed and outcoached, turning the ball over five times (all of which resulted in TDs).

After the Chargers opened with a three-and-out, Zamir White, standing in for Josh Jacobs, rushed in from 1 yard for his team’s first offensive touchdown since Week 12. And boy, did they make up for lost time after that. On the fourth play of the next drive, a fumble by Easton Stick led to a second Raiders score, tight end Tre Tucker getting the first of his two. And after Joshua Kelley fumbled to open LA’s third drive, Aidan O’Connell found Jakobi Meyers in the end zone three plays later.

The second quarter went much the same way. The Raiders scored three more times while all Los Angeles had to show for their first-half endeavours were four punts, two fumbles, a turnover on downs and a 42-point deficit. Las Vegas’ interim HC Antonio Pierce was informed of the NFL’s regular-season points record (72) and decided to keep his foot on the gas. In the second half, Jakobi Meyers threw his second successful pass of the day to Davonte Adams for a trick play TD and the defense joined in the fun, with a fumble recovery run back by John Jenkins and a pick six by Jack Jones. Unsurprisingly, the Raiders set a new franchise record for points scored – even without Jacobs and two starting O-linemen. After last week’s shutout, O’Connell bounced back with four touchdown passes, equalling his output from his previous seven appearances, and no interceptions. In stark contrast, the Chargers didn’t get into opposition territory until Joshua Palmer’s 79-yard touchdown in the third quarter.

The win won’t do much for the 6-8 Raiders, who would need to beat the Chiefs, Colts and Broncos – and get a lot of unlikely results in other games to go their way – to reach the postseason. However, such an emphatic victory over a division rival might just earn Pierce the HC job full-time next season. In the case of Los Angeles, they were missing Justin Herbert (finger) and Keenan Allen (heel) but even so, this was embarrassing. Their fourth loss in five drops them to 5-9 and, with their chances of making the playoffs effectively over, ownership finally decided to move on from Brandon Staley and General Manager Tom Telesco. Both were fired the following day. [ST]

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36p and still not value for money

Don’t get me wrong, we love our American sports. Heck, we even dedicate time and column inches to it every week right here in this article. The one thing that is always amusing, however, is that everything always has to be the biggest and best. “World Champions” in a sport only competed in the United States is always a personal favourite, but I want to talk about overblown attendance figures. Officially, a crowd of more than 70,000 people turned up to watch the Atlanta Falcons take on the Carolina Panthers on Sunday. Unless there was a memo released for everyone to dress as blue seats, I think it’s safe to say that is quite the exaggeration.

Tickets for the contest were readily available for around $0.45 (36p) ahead of kick-off. Yes the Panthers only had one win on the season before this weekend, but they have the number one overall pick at quarterback, they have just changed their head coach and this was a divisional matchup. None of that mattered though, as the game was played out in the most bizarre of atmospheres, triggering memories of the pandemic era when games were routinely played behind closed doors or with very few fans in attendance. So was it 36p well spent? Well, no.

The game, as expected, was a defensive struggle with Carolina prevailing on the strength of three Eddie Pineiro field goals to take the spoils 9-7. The game-winner came as time expired, as the Falcons relinquished their divisional lead after another head-scratching performance by a team that many expected to be a dark horse in the NFC. The continuing poor play of Desmond Ridder continues to haunt the Falcons as he once again tossed a bizarre interception with his team in a position to score. Also, the season-long usage of Bijan Robinson continued to baffle. He cost many a fantasy football owner their playoff contests with his 11 yards on 7 carries, with a fumble to boot, netting negative fantasy points. The NFC South has no teams over .500 with just three weeks of the season to play and on this evidence, it’s hard to envisage the Falcons adding to the six wins they have somehow accrued at the moment. [SB]

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Kings-in-waiting

The first team to punch their playoff ticket in the AFC were the Ravens, following a surprisingly comfortable 23-7 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars. Baltimore’s four-game winning streak is second only to San Francisco (six) and both teams have league-leading records of 11-3. Given the patchy form of the other contenders, a Ravens/49ers Super Bowl looks as good a bet as any at the moment.

The key to Baltimore’s success this season has been their in-the-groove quarterback. Lamar Jackson, who’s jostling with Brock Purdy and Dak Prescott in the MVP race, only threw 14 of 24 for 171 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT on Sunday. But he also led his team in rushing, making 97 yards from 12 carries as part of a team total of 251. Baltimore’s offense has surpassed 100 yards rushing in every game this year and his dual-threat role in that scheme was particularly crucial this weekend, with running back Keaton Mitchell suffering a season-ending knee injury. Jackson himself has hasn’t made it past Week 15 since 2020 so for a change, his greatest ability is his availability.

One all-action hero move summed up his performance this week. With the Ravens 10-7 up late in the third, he ducked under the outspread arms of Dawuane Smoot and somehow spun away from an all-but-certain sack. He dropped back to reset but the Jags linebacker came back for more like a hungry shark. Just as he reached his target again, Jackson heaved the ball 26 yards downfield, where tight end Isaiah Likely – doing an admirable job since Mark Andrews was injured a few weeks back – outjumped two converging defenders to snag the ball on the Jags’ 4-yard line. Two plays later, Gus Edwards rumbled in his side’s second touchdown of the night and the game was as good as done.

With a bevvy of fumbles, drops, missed kicks, penalties and clock mismanagement, Jacksonville had a bad day at the office. Their third straight loss sees them slide to 8-6, creating a three-way tie with the Colts and Texans in the AFC South. On paper, they have the easiest remaining schedule of the three but their cause wasn’t helped by Trevor Lawrence entering concussion protocol. That division is going down to the wire for sure. As for the Ravens, things are much more straightforward. In pole position to take the No.1 seed for only the second time in franchise history, they now face the Niners in the late Christmas Day game (a litmus test for 11 February?) before taking on the Dolphins and Steelers. They’d have to lose all three, and watch the Browns win out, to miss out on the divisional crown – about a 4% chance, according to the bookies – so we could see the coronation of the new kings of the North by Boxing Day. [ST]

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Eagles look like a sitting duck

It seems bizarre to think that a team with double-digit wins could feel so cold heading into the playoffs, but that is exactly where we find the Philadelphia Eagles. It has been a December to forget so far as their 20-17 defeat to Seattle on Monday Night Football extended their winless run to three games and leaves them with the prospect of playing on the road throughout the playoffs. Already blown away by the 49ers and Cowboys in back-to-back weeks, the Eagles could ill-afford any additional slip-ups, particularly against a Seahawks team without Geno Smith. Despite building a 10-point lead, Philly were once again scratching around for answers when the clock struck zeroes and Seattle had come all the way back.

The game-winner was a thing of beauty, and arguably the best pass of Drew Lock’s career, as he dropped a dime on a corner route to Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Earlier in the drive, Lock also made a pivotal connection with DK Metcalf for a 34-yard gain on 3rd-and-10. It sums up where the Eagles have been over the last few weeks. They have gone from finding a way to always be on the right side of these close ball games to being on the opposite end. Handing defensive play-calling duties to Matt Patricia feels like a desperate move at this stage of the season as the team searches for form. Turnovers on the other side of the ball, however, continue to be an Achilles heel.

With two more interceptions in this game, Jalen Hurts is now tied for the league lead in takeaways. The offense continues to play in fits and starts, and it feels like a while since wide receiver AJ Brown dominated a game. The hope for Philadelphia is that, on paper at least, the schedule looks relatively kind. A contest with the Cardinals is on tap, sandwiched between a pair of games against the New York Giants. The first of those is on Christmas Day so I guess it’s safe to say that all the Eagles want for Christmas this year is a return to the win column. [SB]

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Baker bosses battle of the Bays

Well, here are four words I never thought I’d write: “Baker Mayfield is perfect”. OK, maybe not overall, at everything in life, but in Tampa Bay’s 34-20 win over Green Bay on Sunday, he posted a perfect passer rating of 158.3.

It was easily Mayfield’s best game as a Buccaneer, with four touchdowns to four different recipients (Mike Evans, Rachaad White, Ko Kieft and David Moore) and no interceptions. Meanwhile, Chris Godwin posted 155 receiving yards from 10 catches, both season highs. Mayfield sliced and diced the Packers, going 22 of 28 for 381 yards to become only the second player ever (after Aaron Rodgers) to hit that perfect passer mark at Lambeau Field. Yes, that’s something that even the legendary Brett Favre, Mayfield’s idol, never managed to do.

Mayfield overcame a first-quarter fumble inside his own 5-yard line, which led to Green Bay’s only lead of the game (7-3), to orchestrate touchdown-scoring drives on four of the Bucs’ next five possessions. Not surprisingly, after the game, HC Todd Bowles couldn’t praise his QB enough. “He’s done everything,” he said. “From a mental standpoint to a quarterback standpoint, making plays. From a toughness standpoint. From a leadership standpoint. He’s checked all the boxes. He’s doing all the right things now and I can’t say enough about him.”

As well as being a defining moment for Mayfield, it was also a signature win for the team, who now jump to the top of the congested (if slightly below-par) AFC South at 7-7. They now have a 69% chance of reaching the playoffs, according to ESPN Analytics, as they race down the final straight neck and neck with the Saints, and a game up on the faltering Falcons.

With three straight victories, the Buccaneers – and Mayfield – are hotting up just at the right time. They host divisional foes New Orleans in Week 17 in a game that could well decide who hosts a game in mid-January as the NFC’s fourth seed and who watches from the couch. And it could also decide whether the one-year, prove-it deal that Baker signed in the offseason gets renewed for something longer and more lucrative. So there’s everything to play for. [ST]

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Hail Mooney

The season of the Cleveland Browns was perfectly captured in around five minutes of Sunday afternoon. Down seven points and with the offense struggling, out of nowhere Joe Flacco throws an unbelievable ball into a tight window for Amari Cooper to level the game with Chicago with just over three minutes remaining. The defense stepped up, held the Bears one more time and Flacco connected with tight end David Njoku for 60+ yards on the ensuing drive to allow Dustin Hopkins to kick the Browns in front. Game over with 35 seconds left… or so it should have been.

Out of timeouts, the Bears set about attempting to get into field goal range. An underneath throw from Justin Fields should have netted around 10 yards but inexplicably, so intent on keeping the receiver in bounds, the Browns forgot to tackle Tyler Scott and he scampered 30 yards up the sidelines to their 45. A pair of incompletions later and outside of kicking range for Cairo Santos, the Bears lined up for the last-gasp Hail Mary to try and win the game. It’s a play with a low probability level of success but Darnell Mooney will still be having nightmares that he didn’t come up with the game-winner as things played out.

Fields rolled left to avoid pressure and heaved the ball up. It was a well-directed and well-weighted ball as it was deep enough in the end zone for ricochets and deflections to come into play. Defenders are always told to bat the ball down and not worry about an interception and that is exactly what cornerback Martin Emerson Jr. did. Unfortunately, however, he tipped it straight to Mooney. Probably unable to believe his luck, the Bears receiver was falling back towards the ground when the ball hit him in the belly. He was unable to react and adjust in time and agonisingly deflected the ball back up in the air off his own legs into the arms of a waiting Browns defender, who slid down at the 1-yard line to seal another improbable win. Cleveland moves to 9-5 with over 26% of the team’s salary cap sitting on IR, and with good tie-breakers already in the bag. Maybe just one more win will be enough for them to secure a remarkable play-off berth. [SB]

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PICK SIX – Week 10

That was Week 10, folks. Shaun Blundell and Sean Tyler have picked six topics for discussion: the final International Series game in Germany, late wins for the Browns and the Texans, a return to form for the 49ers, Cee Dee Lamb bigging himself up and clutch kickers. What more could you ask for?

It’s not how you start

I make no apologies for taking up more column inches with another piece about the Cleveland Browns. Years of misery will mean that clinging to the first sign of success is almost inevitable so here we are again. The point this week though is for the longest time, it felt like I would be writing about another Baltimore win in this one-sided rivalry. Quite literally the longest time…

Somewhat aptly for this column, Deshaun Watson threw a pick six with his first pass of the day. Ravens safety Kyle Hamilton tipped the pass intended for David Njoku up in the air, collected the ricochet himself and took it to the end zone. Just 40 seconds were on the game clock and Baltimore had the lead, one they held for the remaining 59 minutes and 20 seconds. The only problem? The Browns took their first and only lead of the day as the clock struck zeroes, when Dustin Hopkins drilled a 40-yard game-winning field goal. It is the longest time any team has trailed and gone on to win a game since 2000.

Plenty happened in between these bookend plays. The Browns overcame two separate 14-point deficits and a 15-point deficit, including being down by two touchdowns with just nine minutes left. They muffed a punt inside their own 10-yard line, extended a Baltimore scoring drive twice by giving up back-breaking penalties on third down plays and missed an extra point when attempting to tie the game. It came down to a final drive when down by a solitary point, with just over four minutes remaining.

Watson was sacked on a first down play but was able to connect with Amari Cooper on 2nd and 19 for a 17-yard gain. A few runs later, one of which featured Jerome Ford being pushed by literally the entire Browns offense for seven or eight yards more than he had any right to pick up, the stage was set for Hopkins to redeem himself and secure the defining win of the Kevin Stefanski era. The Browns and Steelers are now just half a game back from the Ravens as we enter a huge week in the AFC North. [SB]

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Houston, we are a problem

Before the season kicked off, I bet many Bengals fans looked at the schedule and marked the matchup with the Houston Texans, coming off a 3-13-1 season, as a home win. Well, those prognosticators will be tucking into some very humble pie right about now.

Last week, I described this Texans outfit as young, feisty and fun. As a Cincy fan who’s just watched his team lose 30-27 to a walk-off field goal, the “fun” bit is sticking in my throat a little. But if I take my tiger-striped goggles off for a second, there can be no denying that’s exactly what they are.

Cincinnati could point to the absence of Sam Hubbard and Tee Higgins, plus Ja’Marr Chase’s bad back, as possible factors in their below-par performance. Joe Burrow struggled to find a safe pair of hands, other than two 64-yard plays: when Chase – double-teamed for most of the contest but still able to rack up 124 receiving yards from five catches – raced away for a score, plus a catch-and-run by Tyler Boyd (117 receiving yards). Boyd also had two uncharacteristic drops, one of which might have been the game-winning TD.

That said, their opponents had personnel issues too, with both Nico Collins and Dameon Pierce missing and Derek Stingley Jr coming back from IR after eight weeks out. But while the Bengals looked out of sorts, there were no such woes for Houston, who stuck more than 550 total yards on their hosts.

Devin Singletary rushed for a career-high 150 yards and a score on 30 carries, despite the team entering the game 27th in the NFL in rushing yards per game. Meanwhile, Noah Brown proved he’s more 7Eleven (“always open”) than Ja’Marr Chase with 172 receiving yards on just seven receptions, beating his own career high set only last week. Stroud (356 passing yards, 1 TD/1 INT and a rushing TD) averaged 11.9 air yards per attempt and out-threw Burrow (347 yards, 2 TDs/2 INTs).

This isn’t a post-mortem of the 5-4 Bengals, who have no time to lick their wounds before Thursday’s divisional showdown with the Ravens, but rather a celebration of the Texans. They just kept finding ways to succeed, whether it was stand-in kicker Matt Ammendola making three FGs on his debut or Sheldon Rankins getting three sacks. With four wins in their last five, Houston (5-4) have now crept above Cincinnati and into the final Wild Card spot in the AFC, and are looking more than worthy of it. Underestimate them at your peril. [ST]

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Get your kicks on

Dustin Hopkins has already had some love today so now it’s time to praise a few more kickers. It seems as though some additional ice was injected into their veins this weekend as five games were decided by a field goal as time expired. That’s a new NFL record on a single day, with three being the previous high mark. Hats off to all of those guys that truly proved that kickers are people too.

Hopkins’ game-winner came from 40 yards out as the Browns won on the road in Baltimore. Two more kickers ignored the jeers of the home supporters to lead their teams to victories on the road. Matt Ammendola kicked a 38-yarder for the Texans after another exquisite CJ Stroud final drive positioned Houston to complete a deserved upset against the Bengals. Elsewhere, Riley Patterson was the Lions hero as they outlasted the Chargers in a shootout. Credit must go to Dan Campbell who gambled on a fourth down despite being in field goal range when dialling up a pass play to Sam LaPorta. The play worked and ensured that Justin Herbert would not get a chance to respond. The last five Chargers possessions resulted in touchdowns but the defense just could not get a stop.

Then there was Jason Myers slotting from 43 yards away for Seattle to defeat the Commanders. Geno Smith and DK Metcalf took over the final 50 seconds of the game to put the Seahawks into position after Washington had tied the game, with Sam Howell again playing well. The final one on Sunday went to Matt Prater who chipped one in from 23 yards for the Cardinals to give Kyler Murray a return-to-action win. The final drive saw a brilliant Murray scramble on a 3rd and 10 play where, as we have become accustomed to, he danced around in the backfield dodging tackles before officially recording a 13-yard rush. A real sign of encouragement for Arizona fans that he was able to do this in his first game back after his ACL injury.

And we still have time for more kicker respect. On Monday Night Football, Wil Lutz became this week’s sixth kicker to deliver a walk-off winner, as the Broncos’ mini-revival continued with victory over the floundering Bills. Buffalo even generously put 12 men on the field to allow Lutz the luxury of a practice attempt, which he pushed wide right. The mistake proved incredibly costly as a redo from five yards closer split the uprights and gave the Broncos a 24-22 win. [SB]

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Has big Mac had his chips?

When this year’s International Series games were announced, some UK fans bemoaned the fact that we were given the Falcons and the Titans while our German cousins could look forward to seeing the Dolphins, Chiefs, Colts and Patriots. Had that been the Andrew Luck-era Colts or the New England that won seven Super Bowls under Tom Brady, they might have had a point. But the 2023 Colts and Pats are an entirely different kettle of fish. In short, they’re both a bit rubbish and I didn’t envy anyone in Frankfurt one bit.

The final score of Indianapolis 10-6 New England tells you everything you need to know about the league’s 50th regular-season contest outside the United States. But if you’re a glutton for punishment, here’s more. Indy’s 10 points were a season low, Gardner Minshew threw an interception but no touchdowns and they converted just five third downs. Yet the Patriots somehow contrived to be worse, with Mac Jones’ latest horror interception at the 1-yard line earning him a spot on the bench for the final drive, during which his replacement Bailey Zappe threw into triple coverage for another pick. Jones also took five sacks before halftime, with Dayo Odeyingbo responsible for three of them.

The win, unglamourous and unimpressive as it was, at least leaves the Colts at 5-5 and still within the ‘In the hunt’ playoff bracket. As for the 2-8 Pats, Bill Belichick equalling his worst-ever start – alongside his first season as HC back in 2000 – leaves them propping up the AFC.

And where does this latest demotion leave Mac Jones as the Pats head into a bye week, I hear you ask? After the game, Belichick told reporters that he “thought it was time for a change”. He also declined to say who would start in Week 12 against the Giants. Even if a week off gives the team a chance to work a few things out after three straight losses, I can’t say I envy anyone with a ticket to that game either! [ST]

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Bye week big winners

The scene was set on Sunday for the Jaguars to stake their claim as genuine Super Bowl contenders. Instead, the San Francisco 49ers reminded everyone that they are very much in that conversation.

Both of these teams were fresh from a bye week, and it’s safe to say that both were trending in opposite directions. The Jags had won five straight after successfully navigating a London tour and the follow-up schedule without a bye week. The Niners were riding a three-game losing streak and many people were starting to question the legitimacy of them as a team and Brock Purdy as the quarterback in particular.

If you did not know which team was playing in which colour, you would be excused for getting the teams mixed up. San Francisco dominated from start to finish. They forced a three-and-out on defense to start the game and then began their own offensive day with a touchdown, Purdy finding Brandon Aiyuk for the score. They went on to record four turnovers on the day, limiting the Jags to just a solitary field goal. Brock Purdy returned to form with a three-touchdown day while piling up 296 yards through the air. George Kittle was huge, Deebo Samuel was back and perhaps the biggest surprise on the day was that Christian McCaffrey didn’t find the end zone for the first time in living memory.

All of a sudden, the Jaguars have the upstart Houston Texans nipping at their heels in the AFC South. The Jags offense has been a concern for a while now and Trevor Lawrence has seemingly not taken the big leap forward we’d have expected in year three. He was responsible for two interceptions and a fumble in this one, leaving yet more questions on the table as we head towards the business end of the season.

On the other hand, the Niners stay atop of the NFC West with the same record as Seattle. I have no doubt that San Francisco is by far the superior team out of those two outfits and expect them to carry this momentum forward into their upcoming head-to-heads in the next month. [SB]

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Cee Dee sets new records

With the Dallas Cowboys again honouring veterans on the NFL’s Salute to Service weekend with red, white and blue stripes on their helmets, let’s also honour wide receiver Cee Dee Lamb’s performance. By his own admission, he is the best. “I’m the top receiver in this game,” he confidently announced after their 49-17 demolition of the New York Giants. “There’s no question about it.”    

OK then, let’s check the facts behind his claims. Having snagged 11 balls for 151 receiving yards, plus posting a receiving and rushing touchdown, on Sunday, he became the first player since at least 1970 to catch 10+ passes for 150+ yards in three consecutive games. And to show how hot his current streak is, since Week 6, the wideout leads the NFL with 617 receiving yards, despite Dallas having a bye during that span, and has had four straight games with 100-plus receiving yards. So yeah, he’s got a strong case for being WR1 in the league at the moment.

Maybe rolling over the feeble Giants isn’t all that impressive but scoring seven TDs, posting 640 total yards, outgaining their opponents by 468 yards and recording 32 first downs can’t be bad, whoever you’re facing. So let’s also salute HC Mike McCarthy and OC Brian Schottenheimer as they swept the Giants by a combined score of 89-17 this season.

While Lamb was pretty much unguardable wherever he popped up, he wasn’t the only star to shine at AT&T. Brandin Cooks bashed out 173 yards and a TD on nine catches, while Michael Gallup added 70 and a score on just two receptions. If all three wideouts can stay in sync with an on-point Dak Prescott (404 passing yards, 4 TDs/1 INT), the Cowboys offense could really cause some damage down the stretch.

Dallas’ home winning streak has now been extended to 12 games, currently the league’s longest run, but there’s a caveat: this year’s victories have come against the Raiders, Jets, Patriots, Rams and Giants… hardly the toughest of tests. The real challenges lie ahead, with the Seahawks, Eagles and Lions waiting in line. If Lamb, Prescott and the rest can dispatch them, then we’re going to have to tip our cap, raise a flag and set off a 21-gun salute to America’s Team. [ST]

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PICK SIX – Week 9

Well, that was Week 9 folks, which means we are already halfway through the regular season. Crazy, huh? Still, at least Shaun Blundell and Sean Tyler are here to pick six more things to mull over. With young quarterbacks, strong AFC North performances, the floundering ‘Phins and a new era in Las Vegas catching the eye, let’s just dive right in…

Schwartz plays another hit tune

It would have been music to the ears of Jim Schwartz and his Browns defense when the Arizona Cardinals decided to trade away Joshua Dobbs this week and start rookie Clayton Tune. The Browns defense has caused carnage for many a quarterback this season and Sunday was possibly their greatest hit yet.

Tune was involved in all three of the turnovers forced by the feasting Browns. Two were interceptions, one of which was brilliantly reeled in by an athletic leap from Denzel Ward, who is arguably having the best season of his career. The other turnover was a forced fumble recovered by Myles Garrett following a sack by interior defensive lineman Shelby Harris. The sack was one of seven on the day for the unit, which also added an additional 14 tackles for loss. When you consider that Arizona ran 45 plays on the day, that equates to 47% of them losing yardage.

It’s not the first time we have looked at this Browns defense in this column but it continues at an incredible pace. The front four were that dominant yesterday that the blitz was only sent on 12% of plays. The Cardinals were held to just one of 12 third-down conversions as well as failing on their only fourth-down attempt. The deepest Arizona got into the Browns half was the 40-yard line and the play from that spot resulted in the Sione Takitaki interception. 

The end result was just 58 yards of offense generated by the Cardinals, their lowest output in franchise history, and their first shutout since 2018. To put it into further context, the Browns managed 59 yards in one offensive play with Deshaun Watson finding Amari Cooper deep. If Watson can shake off some of the obvious rust and produce even average quarterback play, this Browns team will be one many want to avoid. [SB]

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Ravens in a rush

Say what you like about the other AFC divisional leaders but I think the Ravens are currently outplaying the Chiefs, Dolphins and Jaguars. And with Kansas City and Miami both on byes this week, Baltimore could well be the top seed in the conference this time next week. They have also proven that they’re far superior than at least two NFC division front-runners of late, following up their shellacking of Detroit in Week 7 with a 37-3 trouncing of NFC West pace-setters Seattle on Sunday. Both came into M&T Bank Stadium at 5-2 and both left with a flea in their ear and their tails between their legs.

What was billed as the top tussle of the early afternoon slate proved to be a decidedly lopsided contest by halftime and became a massacre by the end. Seattle’s offense managed a paltry 151 yards, went one of 12 on third downs and secured just six first downs – one fewer than the number of scoring drives their opponents had.

At home in particular, their offense has been dominant and this weekend, the Ravens posted a season-high 515 total yards. Mark Andrews took his nine grabs for 80 yards while Odell Beckham Jr. had 56 yards and a TD, but the bulk of the damage was done on the ground, with 298 rushing yards (and three rushing scores) dished out at an impressive average of 7.3 per clip. The top 30 rushing performances of the week included four Baltimore players. Justice Hill (40 yards), Gus Edwards (52 yards and 2 TDs) and Lamar Jackson (60 yards) all made their mark, but the new star this week was undrafted rookie Keaton Mitchell. Having not posted a single touch so far this season, Mitchell broke out with nine carries for 138 yards (average 15.3), a long of 60 yards and his first NFL touchdown off a 40-yard scamper.

As well as possessing an ominously effective offense (first in rushing yards and sixth in both yards per game and points per game), the Ravens also boast the NFL’s top defense, sitting second in yards allowed per game and leading the NFL in points allowed per game. They sacked Geno Smith four times – Kyle Van Noy got two on consecutive plays in the second quarter – and their 35 QB takedowns also leads the league.

The 7-2 Ravens have now reeled off four consecutive victories to stay two clear of the field in a highly competitive AFC North and are starting to look like Super Bowl contenders. They are quietly rolling over every opponent they face and could put one hand on the divisional crown by Week 11, with back-to-back home games against Cleveland and Cincinnati coming up. So get the popcorn in, sit back and enjoy the show. [ST]

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Allow me to introduce Joshua Dobbs

It’s not often the game-winning quarterback has to introduce himself to his team’s fans, but that is exactly what happened on Sunday night in Atlanta. The Minnesota Vikings, smarting from the loss of Kirk Cousins, had decided to hand the keys to rookie Jaren Hall. It seemed prudent as newly acquired back-up Joshua Dobbs only joined the team on a deadline day trade and hadn’t even taken a snap with the first team in practice. Hall started the game pretty well but got knocked out of the game with concussion, meaning the stage was set for Dobbs.

In bizarre scenes, the FOX broadcast caught sight of the offensive line and Dobbs going through the team’s five primary cadences as he hadn’t even gone through them before. Dobbs would later admit to not even knowing everyone by name but regardless, it was time to step in and deliver.

Things got off to a rough start as Dobbs was sacked in the end zone on only his third snap. Things did settle down, however, and he led the Vikings to a come-from-behind win on the road. Connecting with Alexander Mattison on a simple 2-yard play action pass, Dobbs later scrambled in from 18 yards away. It was one of a few highlight reel runs as his rushing total of 66 yards proved enough to make him the leading rusher in the game. His best run was arguably on 4th and 7 on the game’s final drive. The play had completely broken down but Dobbs managed to avoid tacklers and keep the drive alive.

It led to a connection with Brandon Powell from 6 yards out with just 22 seconds left on the clock, putting the Vikings in front. Dobbs showed poise throughout and will likely get the nod next week regardless of the injury status of Hall. Just imagine what a week of practice might do! [SB]

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Stroud celebrates with a high-five

Historic. Unrivalled. Miraculous. Words that usually accompany unsubstantiated hyperbole. But in the case of Houston Texans QB CJ Stroud, they’re just factual descriptions of his record-setting day against Tampa Bay.

The rookie signal-caller has certainly had an impressive start to his first pro campaign but in steering the Texans to a last-gasp 39-37 win over the Bucs, he went nuclear. Going 30 of 42 for 470 yards, as well as a career-high five touchdowns, Stroud smashed the single-game record for passing yards by a rookie QB (topping Andrew Luck’s 433 from 2012) and became the only rookie in NFL history with 400-plus passing yards, four-plus passing TDs and no interceptions in a game. Take a bow, son.

Overcoming some initial hesitancy, Stroud morphed into the Terminator, throwing for 364 yards in the second half. The team’s receiving corps all reaped the benefits. Three players eclipsed 100 yards and a score (Tank Dell: 114 yards and 2 TDs; Noah Brown: 153 yards and 1 TD; Dalton Schultz: 130 yards and 1 TD) while Nico Collins also got a TD. Even when that impudent elf Baker Mayfield tried to steal the limelight, putting the Buccaneers 37-33 ahead with just 46 seconds left with a touchdown pass to Cade Otton, the No.2 draft pick didn’t blink. He simply orchestrated his own six-play, 75-yard touchdown drive – connecting with Dell for the winning score – to snatch a clutch win with 00:06 on the clock.

Even when they lost kicker Ka’imi Fairbairn to a quad injury in the second half, this spirited, never-say-die Houston team found a way. Having resorted to fourth-down and two-point attempts instead of field goals and extra points, they finally accepted that a kick was unavoidable inside the red zone. Cue running back Dare Ogunbowale, who stepped up to convert a go-ahead FG from 29 yards out and became the first RB to kick a field goal since 1979. Given the margin of victory, his contribution cannot be understated.

Sunday’s performance must put Stroud in pole position for Offensive Rookie of the Year and DeMeco Ryans (Coach of the Year, anyone?) has the 4-4 Texans in contention in the AFC South, only a year removed from a disastrous 3-13-1 campaign. They’ve already racked up more wins than last year, they sit second in the division and they’ve got a win against the Jaguars under their belt. This team may not be perfect – 10 wins over the past three years and a loss to the previously winless Panthers just last week says a lot – but they’re young and fearless… and above all, fun. [ST]

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Dolphins disappoint in another true test

Are the Miami Dolphins a good football team? Some weeks, you watch them put opponents to the sword and you think they are the team to beat in the AFC. Put them in against a well-matched opponent, however, and things look slightly less rosy. With a 21-14 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in Frankfurt on Sunday, they now have a perfect 0-3 record against teams with a winning record. It should be a real concern for ‘Phins fans as we move towards the business end of the season.

Credit goes to the Chiefs for completely shutting down the Dolphins offense in the first half. They were held scoreless at the break for the first time in the Mike McDaniel era. The highlight, however, was the Chiefs defense putting points on the scoreboard themselves. A short pass found its way to Tyreek Hill but he was stripped of the ball by Trent McDuffie. Mike Edwards recovered the fumble and began to advance it but he looked for all the world that he was about to be tackled or fall down. In a moment of brilliance, he lateralled the ball to Bryan Cook who scampered the remaining 59 yards down the sideline to the end zone.

Miami did threaten a second-half comeback as two third-quarter touchdowns reduced the deficit to just seven points. The Chiefs offense produced nothing in the second half, finishing with fewer than 50 yards in the period but Miami still could not capitalise. In two bizarre drives when attempting the comeback, the Dolphins mustered 34 yards from a 12-play drive lasting nearly 8 minutes, before turning the ball over on downs inside the final two minutes.

They seemed more concerned about giving the Chiefs the ball back with time on the clock than scoring, and paid the price. Raheem Mostert had gashed the Chiefs for 44 yards on runs either side of the two-minute warning, setting Miami up at the Chiefs’ 31. However, they elected to let 40 seconds drain off the game clock before running the next play, which fell incomplete through the air. Two incompletions later and it was fourth down. Symbolically, the Dolphins’ comeback attempt effectively ended on a botched snap as Tua Tagovailoa mishandled – and that was all she wrote. [SB]

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Raiders of the lost art (of winning)

Sometimes, when the atmosphere gets all hot and unpleasant, you just need a good ol’ thunderstorm to clear the air and bring some freshness back. And so it’s proved in Las Vegas. Last week’s storm – a primetime loss, a feisty team meeting where players aired their feelings and the subsequent dismissal of GM Dave Ziegler, HC Josh McDaniels and OC Mick Lombardi – has now abated, the clouds have parted and there are even faint glimmers of sunlight peeking through.

Their 30-6 win on Sunday gave interim HC Antonio Pierce his first NFL victory as a head coach. It came against the team where he spent five years and won a Super Bowl, the hapless 2-7 New York Giants, who seem hell-bent on giving the Cardinals, Panthers and Bears a run for their money in the race to pick first in the 2024 Draft.

The Las Vegas cause was undoubtedly helped by the Giants’ continuing quarterback woes. Daniel Jones, back after three weeks out with a neck injury, took two sacks in the first half and sat out the rest of the game with a potentially serious knee injury. His replacement, rookie Tommy DeVito, struggled again after a tough debut against the Jets a week ago, with picks on consecutive passes in the second quarter leading to 10 points for the Raiders. To his credit, DeVito finished with a respectable 175 yards on 15 of 20 but also took six sacks. But with Jones and Tyrod Taylor both out and two road games on the schedule before their bye, it’s going to be tough sledding for Big Blue.

For all that, the Raiders were more than worthy of their comfortable win, scoring the first 27 points unanswered. Aidan O’Connell looked clean in his second start since replacing Jimmy G, going 9 of 10 for 130 yards before halftime. OK, he didn’t throw a TD pass but he also didn’t give the ball away and didn’t take a sack. Although Davante Adams (four catches for 34 yards) is still being criminally underused, the offense did benefit from Josh Jacobs’ best outing of the year (98 rushing yards and 2 TDs). On the other side of the ball, Maxx Crosby had three sacks. No.98 now has 9.5 sacks for the year, trailing only Danielle Hunter.

How much this result means in the long term remains to be seen but for now, Pierce has steered the Raiders to 4-5, with a shot of reaching .500 when the New York Jets come to town next week. Filmed laughing, joking and enjoying victory cigars in the locker room after the game, these players may yet start to shine – especially now that they don’t have to play for a coach they despise. [ST]

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