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PICK SIX – Week 12

This week’s NFL action was nicely spread out over several days, due to the holiday season in the United States. But while our American cousins gorged on turkey and pumpkin pie – and football of course – Shaun Blundell and Sean Tyler set to work picking six more things to discuss from the Week 12 slate. This week, we expand on two players breaking records, the Steelers’ rejuvenated offense, our first Black Friday game, the sub-par NFC South and possibly the best game of the season so far.

DaRon sets Bland-new record

During his team’s annual Thanksgiving Day game on Thursday, Dallas Cowboys cornerback DaRon Bland snared his fifth pick-six of the year, setting a new single-season record in the process. He intercepted Washington Commanders quarterback Sam Howell and returned it 63 yards, eluding Howell, Brian Robinson and Terry McLaurin on his way to the paint.

The ensuing celebration lasted so long that Head Coach Mike McCarthy had to call a timeout before the extra point attempt. And the timing couldn’t have been better for the Californian, whose family was in town for the holidays. “It means everything to break the record in front of them,” Bland said postgame, “and do it on Thanksgiving Day is another thing to be thankful for.”

As well as sticking a cherry on the top of a comfortable 45-10 victory, the play vaulted the second-year cornerback above Eric Allen, Jim Kearny and Ken Houston in the NFL record books for the most defensive TDs in a season. Bland also becomes the leader in career pick-sixes in Cowboys franchise history.

Even last year, as a rookie drafted from Fresno State in Round 5, the promise of what was to come was evident in the five interceptions he made while filling in for an injured Jourdan Lewis. But this season, the step up has been exponential. The 24-year-old has transformed into a premier defensive playmaker, accumulating 48 tackles, 13 passes defensed and a league-leading seven interceptions.

This year, Bland has yet to go more than two consecutive games without a touchdown. His journey into the record books began even before he was thrust into the starting lineup when Trevon Diggs tore his ACL in practice ahead of Week 3. His 22-yard pick-six in an opening-day 40-0 rout of the Giants was soon followed by scores against the Patriots (54 yards), Rams (30 yards), Panthers (30 yards) and now the Commanders. His five defensive TDs are two more than any other team has accrued this season (the Colts and the Seahawks are the closest with three) and within the Cowboys camp, he only trails Cee Dee Lamb on either side of the ball. For added context, his tally is just one shy of the New York Jets’ entire offensive output.

With six more regular season games still to go, Dallas fans will be keen to see if Bland can extend his record yet further. But for now, his exceptional instincts and ability to read the game is something every Cowboys fan should be thankful for. [ST]

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Steelers win – with offense

The Pittsburgh Steelers finally ended the longest streak in the league for most games without 400 yards on offense in Week 12. They officially surpassed the 400-yard mark, in the fourth quarter of Sunday’s game against their divisional foes from Cincinnati, with a 13-yard run from Najee Harris.

The last time they put up 400 yards in a single game was way back, some 1,162 days ago — in Week 2 of the 2020 season. The 424 yards was also the most gained by their offense since the 429 posted against the New Orleans Saints in Week 16 of 2018. It was a welcome sight for an offense that ranked 28th in yards per game entering the pivotal AFC North matchup.

Despite only scoring 16 points in the victory over the Bengals, there’s little doubt that the Steelers offense looked as good as it has all season. The game came just five days after the firing of Matt Canada as the team’s offensive coordinator. Quarterbacks coach Mike Sullivan and running backs coach Eddie Faulkner are working in tandem as interim OCs, with Sullivan calling plays from the sideline and Faulkner handling the bulk of the other day-to-day responsibilities.

The obvious conclusion from the eye test was a more explosive attack. The opening play of the game saw a 24-yard connection to Pat Freiermuth – the first of six plays over 20 yards. The tight end went on to register over 100 yards receiving. Najee Harris also had his best game of the season as the Steelers dominated time of possession and outgained an opponent for the first time all season.

Now, the Green Bay Packers hold the longest active streak for most consecutive games without 400+ net yards, holding an 18-game streak dating back to Week 11 of the 2022 season. [SB]

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Another black day for the Jets

The NFL does like to hitch itself to traditional holidays and milk them for all they’re worth. It’s had games on Christmas Day for decades and Thanksgiving matchups since 1934, with the late night game becoming an annual thing in 2006. Now, amid the retail madness that is Black Friday, the NFL has jumped on the bandwagon again.

At 3pm ET on Friday, the New York Jets – in black uniforms, naturally – played host to the Miami Dolphins in an all-AFC East clash, mirroring the three divisional games from the previous day. The first-ever Black Friday match was aired exclusively by Amazon Prime Video for free (even for non-Prime members) and inevitably, money lies at the heart of the development. The Thanksgiving Day games have separate TV rights and after CBS, Fox and NBC took their noses out of the trough, there was none of the $1 billion pie left. Undeterred, Amazon proposed an annual game the day after, to coincide with its biggest shopping event of the year, and shelled out $100 million to the NFL for the privilege.

Through the 11-year deal, they should make a healthy return on their investment through interactive adverts and QR codes for viewers to scan before, during and after the game. The ads were even tailored to different audiences – depending on whether the viewer was already a Prime member, for example. This latest move in the battle for consumer dollars during the holiday season is designed to encourage millions of football fans to leave the malls early, head home for the game and continue shopping from the couch, smart phone in hand, via Amazon. Ker-ching!

On the field, as expected, it was a one-sided affair, with Miami sealing a 34-13 win in a fast-emptying stadium. Raheem Mostert (94 rushing yards) ran in for two scores, Jaylen Waddle led the receiving corps with 114 yards and Tyreek Hill (nine catches for 102 yards) handed the ball from his 7-yard TD reception to his new wife Keeta (Keeta and the Cheetah? Cute!). But for the Jets, things got ugly… and stayed that way. Tim Boyle’s Hail Mary attempt being returned for a 99-yard pick-six by Jevon Holland pretty much summed up their day.  

But what now for BFF (Black Friday Football)? Well, the fixture is already being talked about as an annual affair and franchises like the Cincinnati Bengals have already volunteered to be the regular host, much like the Cowboys and Lions are on Thanksgiving. Not surprisingly, the NFL politely declined Cincy’s offer and opted to go with New York, the country’s biggest retail market – at least for now. Lucrative though that may be, the league should think twice before agreeing to head back to MetLife Stadium for the next one because on the day after Thanksgiving, Americans have probably had enough turkeys. [ST]

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11k Kelce

It’s not been a bad few months for Travis Kelce. Super Bowl champion, tick. Dating pop megastar, tick. Fastest tight end to reach 11,000 career receiving yards, tick.

His latest feat was accomplished on the back of a 27-yard reception in the second quarter against the Las Vegas Raiders, which contributed towards his tally of 91 total yards on six receptions. It was a gorgeous connection and fitting that such a play would be the record breaker. Kelce bullied Divine Deablo off the line and broke towards the corner. Mahomes dropped a dime into his bucket with a safety closing in and a couple of other trailing defenders narrowing the window.

It was a much-needed contribution that helped the Chiefs rebound from an early 14-point deficit. The aforementioned 27-yard catch came on the pre-half-time drive where KC knotted up the scoreboard and they would not look back. Recent second-half struggles were nowhere to be seen as Kelce and co. moved the ball with ease, gaining 17 second-half points and a big division win just when things were starting to look a little tricky for the Chiefs.

Kelce’s new mark, reaching 11,000 yards in just 154 games, comfortably eclipses the previous record set by Tony Gonzalez (191 games). The question now becomes whether Kelce can hunt down the other record held by Gonzalez: most receiving yards in history for a tight end. That currently sits at 15,127 so there’s still some way to go. Having just turned 34, Kelce would realistically need a strong finish to this campaign and probably sustain at least three more seasons at this level. Antonio Gates is next on the list to surpass, followed by Jason Witten so they are the next two hurdles to overcome. And while he is Patrick Mahomes’ most reliable target, it would be foolish to bet against him.

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Falcons heading north in the South

On Sunday, Taylor Heinicke’s hamstring injury meant Desmond Ridder came back in from the cold after his Week 9 benching but with his proclivity for turnovers (six lost fumbles and six INTs), it won’t be QB play that takes Atlanta to the playoffs, should they get there. Indeed, it was their RBs and DBs who starred in a 25-14 win over the New Orleans Saints. Atlanta’s ground attack cranked out an impressive 228 yards, with rookie Bijan Robinson rumbling for 91 rushing yards and a score, backed by Tyler Allgeier (64), Cordarrelle Patterson (43) and Ridder himself (30). On the other side of the ball, Jessie Bates’ 92-yard pick six was the game’s highlight, while his timely punch-out to force a Taysom Hill fumble on the 9-yard line wasn’t far behind.

The win not only ends a three-game losing skid but also vaults Atlanta over their opponents and up into first place in the basket case that is the NFC South. Last year, all four teams posted losing records, with the 7-10 Saints, Panthers and Falcons all trailing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who snuck into the playoffs at 8-9. These things are often one-season anomalies but in the worst division in football (© everyone), history is repeating itself. Pre-season, this was ranked the weakest pool by every pundit who proffered an opinion. And sure enough, all the other divisional pacesetters are currently 8-3 or better but here, the Falcons head the pack at 5-6.

The Panthers, now 1-10 after Sunday’s loss to the Titans, are the worst team in football. To be fair, they’d been decimated by injuries even before this weekend, when Leviska Shenault, Vonn Bell and others joined the growing list of casualties. But even so, rookie QB Bryce Young just isn’t cutting it and after 11 games, their offense sits at or near the bottom of the pile in just about every metric. No wonder HC Franck Reich got the Order of the Boot yesterday, not even getting to one-and-done. No one here’s making the postseason via the Wild Card route but the fact that Carolina can still win this dumpster fire of a group is mindboggling.

Their next opponents are the Bucs (4-7). It seems the post-Tom Brady experiment with Baker Mayfield hasn’t worked and with the NFL’s worst rushing attack and the second-worst pass defense, they may also be in the market for a new head coach soon. After more erratic play in a 27-20 loss to the Colts this weekend, they’re stuck in third place, behind the Saints (5-6). In the Big Easy, star man Alvin Kamara isn’t exactly tearing up trees, Michael Thomas is back on IR and the red zone has become their kryptonite.

So, by default, that leaves the Falcons – a team that hasn’t bettered seven wins since 2017 – as the least-worst bet for the NFC South crown as we enter December. The Dirty Birds are 3-0 in the division and there’s no team with a winning record left on their schedule. Looking down the stretch in the NFC South, there’s only one week left without a divisional clash of some sort and the final one – the Falcons/Saints rematch – may yet decide which of these unworthy teams hosts a playoff game. I’m hardly sticking my neck out by predicting there’s more ugly football to come in the remaining weeks but however bad it is, at least it’ll be competitive! [ST]

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Game of the season… so far

What a game! Buffalo 34-37 Philadelphia. It was a game that ebbed and flowed, and ultimately came down to some more Jalen Hurts brilliance as the Eagles found a way to secure yet another win. 

It was rather baffling and stupid that the home crowd booed off the team at halftime despite their impressive record to date. Yes, the Bills had been good, dominant in fact. They left six costly points off the board with a field goal block and a field goal miss either side of the half-time whistle. Josh Allen had a great night, throwing for more than 330 yards, but he could only look on as Hurts and company took over in the second half.

The Philly QB had five total touchdowns including three through the air. They included one to DeVonta Smith, who continues to turn heads towards the business end of the campaign. AJ Brown and Olamide Zaccheaus caught the others. 

It was almost in vain, however, as the Bills edged ahead after the two-minute warning. The problem, however, was that Hurts still had time. The Eagles drove into field goal range and Jake Elliott booted a 59-yarder to force overtime. The Bills won the toss and Josh Allen got down to the Eagles’ 22 but Buffalo had to settle for another FG. That gave the Eagles yet another life. They grasped it with both hands and capped a nine-play drive with a Hurts 12-yard scramble for the win. The Eagles yet again found a way, and their quarterback proved yet again he can be the difference maker in the big moments. [SB]

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PICK SIX – Week 11

Returning to pick six more talking points from the latest week of NFL action, Shaun Blundell and Sean Tyler discuss the Jaguars and Bills rebounding nicely, a banged-up Geno Smith, the faltering Chargers and the charging Lions, plus an intriguing Monday Night matchup between the top seeds in each conference.

Welcome back Trevor

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have been thrilled to deliver an offensive breakout when putting divisional rivals Tennessee to the sword. Despite their positive record, the Jags have stumbled on the offensive side of the ball for weeks now and were smarting from the beating they took at the hands of the 49ers last weekend. That can now be relegated to being “old news” after this week’s 34-14 win.

Trevor Lawrence looked composed and eliminated the mistakes that had been so costly last week. He didn’t turn the ball over and completed 75% of his passes for 262 yards and a couple of touchdowns. It was a particularly nice day for Calvin Ridley who was the recipient of both touchdown tosses. His 103 yards marks the third time he has reached three figures during the campaign but was the first time since early October.

The first Ridley touchdown was a beauty. He faded to the back corner of the end zone and Lawrence put the ball right on him. The sideline, however, was not Ridley’s friend and he had to show great footwork to get both feet down just inside the playing surface. The second was a similar concept via play action from the signal caller.

Lawrence also found success in the rushing game, again finding a pair of scores. He scrambled in from 9 yards to cap the opening drive of the third quarter and scored from 5 yards out in the fourth. The rest of the ground game saw a committee approach, with 30 totes of the rock divided between the three running backs. It complemented an all-round display that the Jags have been craving for weeks.

The defense continues to play at a decent level. They limited the Titans to just two of seven on third down plays and shut down Derrick Henry and the running game. We said last week that the Jaguars will need to raise their game to be considered a real threat come January. The Titans certainly aren’t the level of competition they will be expecting to come up against but as a tune-up game, this ticked the boxes nicely. [SB]

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Chargers gonna charger

LA Chargers fans start each season with optimism and belief. “This will be our year”, they say, every single time, but it never is. Their team either underwhelms or the wheels fall off completely. This year is no exception. As ever, they have the personnel on offense (Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler) plus an expensive defense containing Derwin James Jr., Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack, yet 2023 is turning into another wobbly wheel kind of season.

Los Angeles now sit at 4-6, 13th in the AFC, and their chances of making the playoffs in a hyper-competitive conference are fading fast. The Brandon Staley era has reached a critical point and one suspects the next seven games (if not the next couple) might determine if his seat becomes too hot to return to next year. He was hired for his defensive knowledge yet his team consistently ranks among the worst in the league in points allowed (29th, 21st and 24th since 2020). In Sunday’s 23-20 loss to a poor Packers team, the unit continued to be the Achilles heel. Jordan Love was gifted the first 300-yard passing day of his career and until then, Green Bay had the second-longest active streak (27 games) without reaching that benchmark. 

Inevitably, there were mistakes, like a huge pass interference call against Asante Samuel Jr. that handed the Packers a first down in their game-winning drive. And there were injuries: a tearful DE Joey Bosa left the field on a cart in the first quarter with an ankle injury. It wasn’t all plain sailing on offense either. The usually reliable Keenan Allen dropped two potential TD passes while Austin Ekeler fumbled inside the 5. The Chargers came into this game with the second-best red-zone efficiency in the league but went 1-for-4 where it mattered most.

Of course, there were a few bright spots too. Tight end Stone Smartt rumbled in from 51 yards for his first career TD while Khalil Mack secured two sacks (11 for the season). Yet the Chargers still squandered opportunities and lost another one-score game. Five of their six losses have now been by three points or fewer and they’ve yet to beat a team over .500.

Having failed to win a division title since 2009, we’ve been here many times before, only this time, ownership might have seen enough. The franchise has only fired one coach during a season but Staley is doing his best to be the second. With a league-worst pass defense, it’s only fair that reporters question his play-calling in post-game pressers but he still defends himself to the hilt, albeit in an increasingly irritated way. Well, the Baltimore Ravens, the league’s second-highest scoring offense, come to SoFi Stadium this Sunday so let’s see what he has to say after that – if he’s still here, that is. [ST]

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Seahawks out on a limb

Geno Smith had an up-and-down day as the Seahawks let a lead slip against the LA Rams in what could be a costly 17-16 defeat. As seems to be the recent pattern, the Seattle offense started hot with Geno orchestrating an 88-yard touchdown drive. It culminated in an 8-yard toss to DK Metcalf on a simple slant route down low. The offense continued to move the ball, posting field goals on its next two drives. Those three possessions accumulated 193 yards of total offense; the next seven yielded just 38 more.

To be fair to Geno, though, he was absent for a couple of those drives. A big hit from Aaron Donald put him on the sidelines, forcing Drew Lock into action. It was a complete and utter disaster. His final stat line was a measly two completions for 3 yards from his six passing attempts, along with an interception. The play, an underthrown deep shot for Tyler Lockett, breathed further life into the Rams’ comeback. When Geno exited the game, the scoreboard read 16-7 in favour of Seattle. He returned after that interception with the Seahawks down by a point and just 1:31 on the clock.

He had “convinced” Pete Carroll that he was able to go back in the game and immediately showed he had enough arm strength. He connected with his favourite duo, hitting Tyler Lockett for 13 yards and then DK Metcalf for 21 yards, moving the Seahawks into field goal range. A helmet malfunction then led to a poor play call as, rather than throwing again to make the field goal attempt more manageable, Seattle elected for a run that only gained 2 yards. A spike later and it was all there for last week’s hero Jason Myers to take the glory again. Alas, he pushed the FG attempt wide to the right from 55 yards away.

The Seahawks have a rough schedule ahead – two games with the 49ers along with contests against the Cowboys and Eagles – so this loss could be a big one. They need to find consistency as these patchy performances are becoming all too common. What is abundantly clear is that Geno’s arm better be OK because if it isn’t, it’s Drew Lock season and you may as well stick a fork in them now. [SB]

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Lions taking pride in success

Only four teams – the Browns, Texans, Jaguars and Lions – have never reached the Super Bowl but if the season ended today, all four would qualify for the postseason. Among them, Detroit have never won the NFC North nor hosted a playoff game at Ford Field so the fact that they are 8-2 for the first time since 1962 is mightily impressive.

You’ve got a heart of stone if you’re not enjoying what’s going on in the Motor City, where Dan Campbell is among the front-runners for Coach of the Year and his team have become one of this season’s feel-good stories. On Sunday, stunned by four turnovers (including three INTs by Jared Goff), they looked out of sync and trailed the Chicago Bears by 12 points with four minutes left. For context, teams down by at least 10 points with four minutes remaining were 0-83 before Sunday.

The Lions defense allowed their opponents 334 yards and 25 first downs but tightened up just in time to let their offensive colleagues stage an improbable comeback. Goff suddenly rallied, leading his team to 17 points in the final quarter to salvage a 31-26 win, with David Montgomery nudging Detroit in front with a 1-yard TD run with just 29 seconds remaining. A walk-off strip-sack safety by Aidan Hutchinson sealed the deal, spoiling Justin Fields’ return from injury.

Detroit join the Eagles and Ravens as the only teams with at least eight wins on the board and they still have four winnable division games to come, plus the Saints, Broncos and Cowboys. They have long been known for having a soft underbelly but this was exactly the type of come-from-behind, never-say-die victory that will see the new-look, knee-biting Lions progress well into the postseason. And you certainly can’t begrudge their long-suffering fans the chance to experience that for a change. [ST]

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Chiefs stutter while Eagles soar

A Super Bowl rematch months in the making played out on Monday Night Football, but the result this time was different. The Eagles improve to an NFL-best 9-1 record while the Chiefs join a cluster of AFC teams with three defeats, throwing the conference race up in the air.

It was an all-too-familiar tale for Kansas City as their once-potent offense failed to ignite once more. A comfortable 10-point lead at the half was not enough as their six second-half possessions resulted in four punts and two turnovers (one on downs). The receiving core is a real concern as we head towards the postseason.

Marques Valdes-Scantling will be the name getting most criticism after a key drop on what would have been a potentially game-winning touchdown in the fourth quarter. A dime was tossed by Patrick Mahomes as MVS flew passed Bradley Roby from the slot but he couldn’t reel the pass in. It completed a miserable night for the group as Justin Watson finished as KC’s leading receiver with just 53 yards.

The Chiefs defense once again held up its end of the bargain, limiting Jalen Hurts to just 150 yards through the air. It wasn’t enough though. The Eagles have become masters of winning games despite not playing particularly well and this was no different. Two Hurts rushing touchdowns, including the now seemingly obligatory 1-yarder, helped the Eagles complete the comeback and take the spoils 21-17.

The Eagles appear to be a class above in the NFC. You could make a case for the Lions or 49ers but week in and week out, it feels as though Philly will find a way (how on earth did they lose to Zach Wilson though?). The Chiefs, on the other hand, are heading for uncharted waters where the AFC may not run through Arrowhead for a change. One thing is for certain: they need to get this offense firing if they are going to be a serious threat to the Eagles should there be another rematch in a couple of months’ time. [SB]

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Brady’s bunch back on track

Last week, Buffalo’s offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey was fired and quarterback Josh Allen admitted “our backs are against the wall, the clock’s ticking.” Well, just a few days into Joe Brady’s spell as interim OC, the Bills saw off the Jets 32-6 to post their first win in three weeks. Those 32 points were the most allowed by the Jets since 2021.

After an understandably slow start, with three field goals and a punt in their first four possessions, the offense came alive. Allen (275 yards, 3 TDs) hit five straight completions for 145 yards and two TDs, including an 81-yard bomb to Khalil Shakir. The win came despite more Bills’ defenders landing on the treatment table. With three starters already on IR, corners Dane Jackson and Taron Johnson both left the game with head injuries, and safety Taylor Rapp sustained a worrying neck injury. At least trade-deadline pick-up Rasul Douglas, who had two sacks and a fumble recovery, is still healthy.

When all is said and done, all victories are equal: they are each worth one W. But what does beating this abject Jets team really mean? On a day when Gang Green went 0-for-11 on third downs, allowed six sacks and managed only 155 total yards, Zach Wilson was benched late in the third quarter in favour of QB3 Tim Boyle. Wilson (7-of-15, 81 yards) was awful; he didn’t even complete a pass to a wide receiver. (Heck, even punter Thomas Morstead completed an 18-yard pass for a first down on a fake punt, kickstarting their first successful touchdown drive in a staggering 41 attempts!) Post-game, Robert Saleh wouldn’t commit to naming his starter for the Black Friday game against the AFC East-leading Dolphins but by Monday night, Wilson had been demoted beneath both Tim Boyle and Trevor Siemian. Ouch.

As for the Bills, much stiffer tests lie in wait, with trips to Philadelphia and Kansas City coming up either side of a bye week. If they’re going to make the playoffs, Brady’s offense will need to repeat this level of performance against teams of a higher calibre than the New York Jesters. [ST]

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PICK SIX – Week 5

We’re five weeks into the season and we – Shaun Blundell and Sean Tyler – are here to pick six more things that caught our eye in the last round of games. This week, our interest-o-meter was set off by the Bears waking up, the Bills going to sleep and the Steelers defying all logic, plus CJ Stroud, Brock Purdy and Bill Belichick. Let’s pick the meat off the bones.

Bears emerge from hibernation

It’s fair to say that Chicago have not been having any fun lately. They came into Thursday night on a run of 14 losses stretching back 350 days (the longest losing streak in their 104-year history). They had just squandered a 21-point lead to the Broncos. Their DC resigned in Week 2. Exiled WR Chase Claypool was shipped off to Miami. And before the game, the passing of franchise legend Dick Butkus was announced.

But, as the saying goes, it’s always darkest before the dawn and on TNF, they – one of the league’s two remaining winless teams – finally got the dub they’d been so desperate for. The Bears travelled to Washington to face a feisty Commanders team that took the Eagles to OT the previous week and despite starting as six-point underdogs, they got a deserved 40-20 victory. They shot out to a 27-3 halftime lead but unlike last week, the Bears didn’t buckle when injuries, not least to RB Khalil Herbert, started to bite. Indeed, they sacked Sam Howells five times.

But it was the connection between Justin Fields and DJ Moore that decided this matchup. Despite only completing 15 passes to just three different players – Moore, plus tight ends Cole Kmet and Robert Tonyan – Fields (282 passing yards/4 TDs) torched Emmanuel Forbes and Kendall Fuller all night. With 617 yards, eight TDs and one INT in his past two games, he suddenly seems to have found his groove.

Moore was the main beneficiary, with a career-high (and TNF-high) 230 receiving yards and 3 TDs from just eight catches. That haul makes him the first Bears player in the Super Bowl era with 200+ receiving yards and 3+ receiving TDs in a game. Moore’s numbers were boosted by chunk plays of 58, 56, 39, 32 and 20 yards, and he could’ve had another big TD had a fourth-quarter bomb not been overthrown.

So, after an entire year of losing every which way, the Bears – and HC Matt Eberflus – can finally enjoy a W. Which means you can drag that meme, which showed Chicago as the only franchise across the big four US sports leagues (NFL, MLB, NBA and NHL) that hadn’t won a game since Elon Musk bought Twitter in October 2022, off your desktop and into the recycle bin. [ST]

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Stroud and proud

It has been a record-breaking start to a career for Texans quarterback CJ Stroud and during the Week 5 21-19 loss to the Atlanta Falcons, he added more records to his name. He has now started his young NFL career with 186 passing attempts without throwing an interception. That mark eclipses the 176 attempts made by Dak Prescott when he started in the NFL and sets the new benchmark for 2024 and beyond.

It is one of those stats that could be meaningless, however. Essentially tossing the ball into the stands on every play would avoid an interception but wouldn’t be an ideal gameplan to win in the NFL. The fact is, Stroud has accomplished this feat while playing well and pumping much-needed life and optimism into the Texans franchise.

He may not have had his best game on Sunday but the big players show up in the big moments. Down by 6 with just under seven minutes to go, Stroud orchestrated an 11-play, 75-yard drive that culminated in a beautiful 18-yard touchdown strike to tight end Dalton Schultz. It moved the Texans in front but it would be the last time Stroud touched the football as the Falcons managed the clock, to kick a game-winning field goal as the clock hit zero.

It would not be an understatement to suggest that Stroud doesn’t have the most stellar of supporting casts. With that said, it seems as though the Texans have found the answer at the most important position on the field. Stroud is giving his team every opportunity to win, he is not turning the ball over and he will surely only continue to get better and better. Houston may have found a really good one. [SB]

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To err is human

These days, everything is ‘smart’: our TVs, our central heating, our phones, pretty much every piece of tech has gone beyond automation and is now seemingly capable of sentient thought. The robots will soon take over, believe me, and the revolution seems to have started, ever-so-quietly, in the most unexpected of places: among the ranks of NFL quarterbacks.

Last month, Chicago QB Justin Fields blamed his ‘robotic’ play on his coaches, who were feeding him too much information. That’s just what a robot would do, isn’t it – blame us unpredictable, flawed humans for making him look too mechanical. Not convinced? OK, fair enough. But how do you explain Niners quarterback Brock Purdy?

The last name picked in the 2022 NFL draft has now been at the helm of 10 straight regular season wins since starting for the 49ers. He is a machine – literally. The so-called Mr Irrelevant has yet to lose (other than the time he had to leave the field in the first quarter against the Eagles in the NFC Championship Game, presumably to have a circuit board resoldered or his mainframe rebooted). He had just one incompletion last week against Arizona and has yet to throw an interception five games into the new season. In his latest outing – Sunday’s 42-10 trouncing of Dallas – he went 17 of 24 for 252 yards and a career-high four TDs, three of them to George Kittle. He’s improving week by week without regression: that’s machine learning for you.

Broadcaster Kyle Brandt, the co-host of Good Morning Football, has this running joke that Purdy is an AI experiment. He’s had some fantastic rants about Purdy not bleeding, sweating or even blinking, and his conspiracy theory has even been picked up by the UK press. “I think there is a conspiracy that will certainly come out years from now that they wanted the first artificial intelligence player,” he told The Mirror. “They’re like: ‘We need to start introducing AI into the game.’”

It’s obviously just a bit of fun but what if he’s actually right? With someone (something?) this consistent, this dependable, you can’t rule it out. Maybe it’s a Truman-Show-style social experiment but until Purdy shows that he’s fallible – and I’m not talking about them programming an algorithm into the matrix to make him appear more human – I’m with Kyle. Brock Purdy’s a machine, the 49ers are going 17-0 and the day the robots take over is closer than you think. [ST]

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The GOAT keeps being slaughtered

It’s been a long time since we’ve heard the boo birds at Gillette Stadium but this Sunday, they were out in full force. It’s been a quiet three years post-Tom Brady, with most fans giving Bill Belichick plenty of time and grace to rebuild the powerhouse franchise of the first 20 years of the millennium. Those heady days of winning 17 out of 20 divisional titles, nine conference championships and six Super Bowls feel like a lifetime ago.

For New England, the head coach is still the face of the franchise, and therein lies the problem. Name a superstar on the New England roster. You can’t. They don’t have any that you could name. But they do have plenty of journeymen. Ezekiel Elliot last played quality football three or four years ago. JuJu Smith-Schuster was the Steelers’ number 1 receiver three or four years ago. Hunter Henry, the tight end, may have become something special in San Diego – and no, that isn’t a typo, that’s how long ago it was. And I haven’t even mentioned Brady’s ‘replacement’, Mac Jones, as that’s a whole other story.

Normally, a Belichick defense will at least keep things tight. How does shipping 72 points in two weeks sound? The Cowboys are a team that can rack up points on any given week but the Saints? New Orleans had scored less than 21 points in 10 straight games, yet they rocked up to Foxborough and put up the biggest shutout scoreline against the Patriots in their history (34-0). 

The quote from the press conference Belichick used after the game was: “So just plain and simply, we’ve got to find a way to play and coach better than that. So that’s what we are going to do: start all over and get back on a better track than we’re on right now.” Maybe the answer is that the Patriots truly start again and hand the keys over completely, as this current version of New England is a mirage of what once was. [SB]

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No jet lag for the Jags

On reflection, the second International Series game of the season, a 25-20 win for the Jaguars over the Bills at Tottenham Stadium, didn’t quite live up to the hype. The game only kicked into life midway through the fourth quarter, when the teams traded four TDs – two each. Until then though, it had all been rather attritional, with the defenses on top and offenses struggling to fill the highlight reel.

Sure, the Jags secured their second win on these shores in a week and deserved to move to 3-2. Trevor Lawrence threw for 315 yards but only one TD – the game’s opener to Zay Jones – leaving the bulk of the damage to be done by Travis Etienne (136 yards and 2 rushing TDs) and Calvin Ridley (seven catches for 122 yards). They did have some trouble with drops and fumbles, but their D stepped up when needed, forcing the Bills to punt six times and leaving them with under 22 minutes of possession.

Beforehand, this clash looked to be one of the better of the 35 contests to be staged in our capital, and many – me included – were expecting a shootout. Both teams are tipped for postseason action and the Bills, who had scored 123 points in their last three games, were arguably the hottest team in the league. Yet they rarely showed it. Josh Allen threw for just 23 yards in the first quarter, the Bills mustered 29 rushing yards all game and they committed 11 penalties for 109 yards. With Greg Rousseau, Tre’Davious White and Shaq Lawson already out, Matt Milano leaving early with a broken leg, DaQuan Jones also injuring a pec and the returning Von Miller on a snap count, it was mainly left to AJ Epenesa (with two of his team’s five sacks) to keep things competitive on the defensive side. A scoreless third quarter meant that theoretically, everything was still to play for but the Jags looked in control and always stayed a score or two ahead.

On Friday’s media day, Stefon Diggs called his QB ‘sleepyhead’ and Allen himself admitted to having “a few coffees” to stay awake, even though he doesn’t normally drink the stuff. Then in the post-match presser, he confessed “We never felt like we got into a rhythm until late in the game.” Which does make you wonder: how much of a factor is the international travel? The Buffalo team flew in to the UK overnight on Thursday and stayed up to practice on Friday, in an attempt to overcome the five-hour time dfference. But it didn’t seem to have the desired effect, with the Bills looking like they had yet to acclimatise or adjust to a game that kicked off at 9.30am Eastern time.

By contrast, Jacksonville had been in London for 10 days, having beaten Atlanta at Wembley the week before. I guess the success of the Jaguars’ extended stay makes back-to-back games in London more likely in the future, but it also raises the question as to whether it will give them a massive advantage. [ST]

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The Steelers top the North. How?

“The AFC North: toughest division in football” is a line often thrown around by commentators. But after five weeks of the season, the toughest thing about it is figuring out if any of the teams are actually any good. There is a solitary game between the four divisional rivals after the opening quarter of the season. The team at the top? The one with a minus 31 point differential: the Pittsburgh Steelers.

In an awful game full of mistakes and miscues from both sides, the Steelers somehow managed to conjure up 14 points in the 4th quarter to beat the Baltimore Ravens 17-10. It started with a safety on a blocked punt. The next drive resulted in a field goal so the Steelers were just two points behind. The final seven minutes of the game were simply bizarre.

The Ravens punted again but this time the Steelers muffed the return, setting up Baltimore at the Steelers 7-yard line. Lamar Jackson inexplicably threw an interception. The Steelers edged towards field goal territory when Kenny Pickett unleashed his best pass of the day, 41 yards to George Pickens, for a touchdown. It surprised everyone in the stadium and it also gave Lamar the ball back with 1:17 to go. He fumbled, and the ball was recovered by TJ Watt. Surely it was game over?

Even then, Pittsburgh seemingly didn’t want the win. They knelt twice, forcing the Ravens to use timeouts, and were going to kneel a third time. But on the play, there was an illegal procedure so it brought up 4th down after running just 13 seconds off the clock and going backwards 6 yards. They kicked an FG but that still left Lamar with one last chance of redemption… until a Watt sack on 4th down ended the game. Somehow, Pittsburgh improved to 3-2.

Surely the Steelers won’t win the division playing like this? They are, however, consistent in that they know the limitations of their offence and play behind a big play defence that has 11 turnovers through five games. The rest of the division needs to sort out their Jekyll and Hyde play because as always, Mike Tomlin will get the Steelers to at least .500 by hook or by crook. [SB]

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PICK SIX – Week 4

Week 4 of the 2023 NFL season is now in the books and Sean Tyler is back to pick six more things worthy of discussion and dissection (while Shaun Blundell spends his bye week taking in the first of this season’s International Series games). But enough of the preamble. David Montgomery, Khalil Mack, Mac Jones, the Super Bowl favourites, Lamar Jackson and the battling Denver Broncos: you have my attention!

David finally slays his Goliath

Cast your minds back a couple of years to October 2021. Sealing a 24-14 win over the Bears at Soldier Field, Packers QB Aaron Rodgers ran in a late TD, then turned to the crowd and yelled “I own you! I still own you!” It was unnecessarily provocative but factually correct, as he’d just secured Green Bay a 20th win in 23 encounters.

That day, Bears RB David Montgomery was on IR but during his four years there, he lost all seven matchups against the Cheeseheads. But things are different now. In the offseason, he moved 400 miles due west to Detroit – another divisional foe – and on Thursday night, at Lambeau Field, the Lions won 34-20, their fourth straight win against Green Bay. Montgomery finally beat his old nemesis and while Rodgers himself was no longer there, I bet the taste of victory was no less sweet.

He was undoubtedly the workhorse of the game, carrying the rock 32 times – the most by any player this season – for 121 yards. He also rumbled into the paint for a career-best three touchdowns, from 3, 2 and 1 yard out, and had two catches for 20 yards for good measure.

Sure, his average (3.8 yards) suggests volume over efficiency but it was one hell of an effort, considering he missed last week’s game against Atlanta with a thigh injury and was questionable for this one. “To come out here with these guys and get the dub, that’s big for me,” he told reporters. “I can now tell my son that I beat the Packers!”

Another new experience for the former Iowa State man is sitting on top of the NFC North. Chicago never finished higher than second when he was there and the Lions haven’t won the division for 30 years. So after two big road victories (having won the season opener at Arrowhead), you can’t begrudge the 3-1 Lions – and especially Montgomery – their lofty perch. [ST]

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The cream always rises to the top

Before the season, the four teams with the shortest Super Bowl odds were the Chiefs, Bills, 49ers and Eagles. Well, whaddya know: Kansas City and Buffalo are up at the top of the AFC standings at 3-1 while in the NFC, San Francisco and Philadelphia are the only two teams in the league with a 100% record.

After wobbly starts on the opening weekend, the Bills and Chiefs have rediscovered their mojo. Buffalo lost 22-16 to the Jets on the first MNF of the season but have since despatched the Raiders, Commanders and Dolphins while scoring 123 points. This weekend’s 48-20 destruction of Miami was a Josh Allen/Stefon Diggs masterclass, with Allen posting four passing TDs, an 11-yard rushing score and a perfect 158.3 passer rating. The main beneficiary was Diggs, who totalled 120 yards and caught three of those TD passes. Suffice to say, the Bills are looking scarily good right now and should put on a show for UK fans this Sunday.

The Chiefs also bounced back from an opening-day defeat to the Lions with wins over Jacksonville and Chicago, and then eeked out a 23-20 victory over the Jets in Sunday’s late game. They built a 17-0 lead, on the back of a 115-yard/1 TD rushing performance from Isiah Pacheco but two uncharacteristic INTs from Patrick Mahomes at least made it interesting. Nonetheless, the big red machine marches on and they currently sit where you’d expect: top seed in the AFC.

In the other conference, the Niners have looked imperious, scoring exactly 30 in wins over the Steelers, Rams and Giants before seeing off the Cardinals 35-16 this weekend. Unsurprisingly, the stars of the show were once again Brock Purdy (20 of 21 for 283), Brandon Aiyuk (148 receiving yards) and the irrepressible Christian McCaffrey. As well as rushing for 106 yards and 3 TDs, he also made seven catches for 71 yards and another tuddy. Run CMC’s 459 rushing yards this season put him almost 100 ahead of his nearest rival already.

Matching them win for win are the Eagles, carrying on from last season’s Super Bowl run with barely a blip, despite changing both offensive and defensive coordinators. After Ws over the Patriots, Vikings and Buccaneers, they needed OT to see off a spirited Commanders side this weekend. Luckily, AJ Brown (175 receiving yards, 2 TDs) was in the mood and Philly stay undefeated with a 34-31 victory.

So, there you have it. It’s a little demoralising for the other 28 franchises to see the usual contenders setting the pace already but if you had a flutter on one of them to go all the way, you’re probably feeling pretty chuffed so far. Let’s see if they can keep up the pace. [ST]

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Lamar: last man standing in the North

The general consensus is that the AFC North is the NFL’s most competitive division this year. The Bengals had won back-to-back titles, signed Joe Burrow to a historically large contract and brought in Orlando Brown Jr to sure up the O-line. The Ravens signed Lamar Jackson to a mega-deal, picked up Odell Beckham Jr off the street and got all their guys back after two years blighted by injuries. With Myles Garrett and Za’Davius Smith in their ranks, Cleveland are by far the strongest of the four defensively and, as we like to say here at F10Y headquarters, “the Steelers won the offseason” so even their tails were up.

But a month is a long time in football and after just four games, it’s all starting to unravel for three of these teams.

Let’s get the big one out of the way first: the 1-3 Bengals are absolutely awful this season! At the bottom of almost every metric you can think of, the offense is (if you’ll excuse the mixed metaphors) clearly hamstrung by Burrow’s calf injury. He’s almost immobile in the pocket, which makes him a sitting duck. With just three TDs in four games, two outings with only a field goal to show for their efforts, including Sunday’s 27-3 loss to the Titans, and a suddenly leaky defense that let Derrick Henry rumble for 122 yards, run in a score and throw a TD pass as well(!), you can make a solid case for them being the worst team in the league at the moment.

So, to Pittsburgh, now 2-2. Kenny Pickett amassed 15 of 23 for 114 yards and an INT before leaving the field during their 30-6 loss at the Houston Texans with a knee injury. And their defense let the improving Texans rack up 451 yards of offense. For now at least, they contemplate life with backup Mitch Trubisky flinging the pigskin, which surely can’t be a good thing, can it?

And what of the 2-2 Browns? Their defense is, as expected, a force to be reckoned with but again, offensively, there are issues. Nick Chubb’s ghastly knee injury a couple of weeks ago left their running game severely weakened for the rest of the year and on Sunday, Watson was replaced by debutant Dorian Thompson-Robinson due to a shoulder injury. The rookie stand-in completed 19 of 36 for 121 yards, threw 3 INTs and his team scored just three points in a 28-3 humbling by Baltimore. Room for improvement there, for sure, but at least they have a bye week to help them reset.

The 3-1 Ravens are not without their own injury woes, with their left tackle and two receivers missing on Sunday. But they are at least the last of the four teams with a fully fit starting QB… and it’s Lamar Jackson. On Sunday, he ran in two TDs, threw for two more (both to Mark Andrews) and only had four incompletions all day. So it seems whoever’s missing from their ranks, Jackson can still carry the team on his back.

As expected, it’s been attritional and much of it hasn’t been pretty, with the Bengals sinking, the Steelers struggling and the Browns regressing. And unless something changes quickly, the AFC North already looks like its Baltimore’s to lose. So much for competitive. [ST]

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Return of the Mack

The LA Chargers gave up at least 24 points in their first three games and Joey Bosa was sidelined for Sunday’s clash with the Raiders. So was rookie QB Aiden O’Connell – making his first start for Las Vegas in place of Jimmy Garoppolo (concussion) – going to get an easy ride of it? Not on your nelly.

Step forward 32-years-young Khalil Mack. The edge rusher posted double-digit sacks every year from 2015 to 2018 (with Oakland and Chicago), but his team needed him to wind back the clock and regain that kind of game-changing form. And boy, did he prove he can still bring the heat. Mack recorded all six of his team’s sacks, only one short of tying the NFL’s single-game record set by Derrick Thomas in 1990. In so doing, he joins Thomas as the only other player with multiple games with five-plus sacks. Mack now goes straight to the top of the current NFL sack race, joining (the other) Josh Allen and TJ Watt with half a dozen each.

Terrorising the team that drafted him back in 2014, Mack was a one-man wrecking crew who just couldn’t be contained. Coming off both sides like a heat-seeking missile, he also logged nine tackles, five tackles for loss, 10 QB pressures and seven QB hits, giving O’Connell a torrid debut. To say Mack’s sack attack was pivotal to the Bolts securing a 24-17 win is definitely the understatement of the week.

As HC Brandon Staley said afterwards, “He’d been close to having three monster games. Today, he put it all together. This guy’s one of the best edge players of his generation. He’s still that guy.” [ST]

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The comeback kids

Those of you who watch Red Zone on DAZN/Game Pass will be familiar with the Witching Hour. That’s the point, late in the 6pm Sunday window, when Scott Hanson tells us, in his scariest Halloween voice, “it’s the time when wins become losses, and losses become wins”.

Well, you can tell we’re in October already because there was something spooky going on this Sunday. Take the clash between the Rams and Colts, for example. It all seemed plain sailing for Los Angeles, who took a 23-0 lead midway through the third quarter. But once Scott had delivered his line, the witches cast their spells.

A 35-yard TD pass from Indy QB Anthony Richardson to tight end Moe Ali-Cox and a 2-point conversion: 23-8. Then, a missed field goal by the Rams’ Brett Maher followed by a 1-yard rushing TD by Richardson: 23-15. A short TD pass to Andrew Ogletree and another 2-point conversion: 23-23! Frustratingly, once parity was reached, the teams traded punts, the comeback stalled and OT was needed. The Rams finally prevailed, with that man Puka Nacua getting his first TD of a standout debut season, but the Colts deserve a lot of credit for their supernatural 23-point comeback.

Then there was the game between the winless Bears and Broncos. Chicago had built up a 28-7 lead with less than half a minute left in the third quarter so again, enough for a first win of the season, surely? You’d have thought so but no sooner had “when wins become losses” been uttered, the momentum switched and the Broncos went on a stampede.

With 20 seconds left of Q3, Russell Wilson connected with Brandon Johnson for a 4-yard TD. The Bears punted their next possession away and Denver roared back on a 12-play, 70-yard drive that culminated in a Courtland Sutton score. The ensuing Chicago drive ended with a sack fumble of Justin Fields, which Jonathon Harris returned for six. The 21-point deficit was erased in about 8 minutes, and there was still time for the Bears to hand the ball over yet again after a failed 4th-and-1. One magnificent 48-yard play by Marvin Mims later, Denver were in field goal territory and Wil Lutz’s trusty boot secured an unlikely but very welcome 31-28 victory.

So, however big your team’s lead is going into the final quarter, assume nothing – and beware the Witching Hour! [ST]

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Bill and Mac: most heinous

I usually prefer to focus on the positive and the impressive but sometimes, you can’t avoid the tales of woe. So let me introduce you to the main characters of my last observation this week: Mac Jones and Bill Belichik.

On the face of it, the Patriots’ 38-3 gubbing by the 3-1 Cowboys in the late window (what is it with teams scoring 3 points this week?!) wasn’t great. Dallas took last week’s disappointing loss out on New England, who now fall to 1-3. With CeeDee Lamb catching Dak Prescott’s one passing TD and fullback Hunter Luepke running in the only score on the ground, it was again the Cowboy’s defense that starred in this one. Leighton Van Der Esch scooped up the ball for a TD after Jones had the ball stripped out by Dante Fowler, and DaRon Bland jumped a cross-field pass for another pick six (the replacement for the injured Trevon Diggs bagged another INT too). But what makes this game all the more incredible is that it’s the worst defeat Belichick has presided over in his 29 years as head coach. Wow.

Now, you don’t lose by 35 points without several things going wrong and there are many directions in which irate Pats fans can point their accusatory fingers. Some will definitely be aimed at the sieve-like offensive line, and many more at their ineffective quarterback. Jones completed just 12 of 21 pass attempts for 150 yards and turned the ball over three times, leading to 18 points for the opposition, before he was hooked late in the third quarter. His replacement, Bailey Zappe, only competed four throws, which at least makes the news that Jones will start against the Saints this week slightly more palatable.

“We obviously didn’t do much of anything well enough to be competitive tonight,” Belichick said afterwards. “I think we’re a lot better than what we showed out there tonight, but that’s what we showed. That’s what it was. We’ve got a lot of work to do to perform better.”

As the other great mind called Bill (from Bill and Ted’s Excellent Adventure) once said, “the only true wisdom consists of knowing that you know nothing”. So Bill B, forget the last 29 years and go back to the drawing board. [ST]

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PICK SIX – Week 2

Welcome back to our new series, in which Shaun Blundell and Sean Tyler pick over half a dozen things from this week’s action. After Week 2, we’re unsure about the Broncos, impressed by Puka Nacua, entertained by the Bills and concerned about the QBs for the Bengals, Bears and Jets. So, without further ado, here’s our Pick Six…

Nacua looks pukka in Rams’ young offense

If you play fantasy football, then the name Puka Nacua was probably a hot commodity on the waiver wire last week. And if he’s still available in your league, he won’t be for very much longer. The fifth-round pick impressed on his debut with 10 catches for 119 yards in the Rams’ win over the Seattle Seahawks and his follow-up earned him a place in the NFL record books. Nacua hauled in 15 of his 20 targets from Matthew Stafford against the impressive 49ers defense on Sunday, totalling 147 yards. Those 15 receptions are the most by a rookie in a single game in NFL history. 

Nacua is also the first rookie to have double-digit receptions in each of his first two NFL games, and his 25 receptions so far is a new record for a rookie in his first two games – a league high held by ex-49er Earl Cooper that had been in the books for over 40 years. Nacua is on pace for 212 receptions this year, which would smash the single-season reception record by 63. Let’s pump the brakes on that one, but it certainly highlights the exceptional start he has made.

When you lack draft capital and cap space, hitting on late-round draft picks is a necessity. The Rams have possibly unearthed a real gem here in the BYU man. Nacua’s emergence is especially timely with Cooper Kupp on injured reserve with a hamstring injury. Kupp’s absence left many questions about how the Rams would start the season. Nacua is not only filling that absence, he’s thriving because of it. The question on Rams fans’ lips now will be “what might this offense look like when both get on the field?” [SB]

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Joe’s woes are a pain in the calf

Things are definitely not going to plan for the Bengals, whose second divisional loss – 27-24 to the Ravens – leaves them slumped at 0-2. With only two starters playing preseason games and franchise QB Joe Burrow easing back from injury, a slow start was inevitable. The team faced exactly the same circumstances last year and still made the AFC Championship decider so there’s no panic or overreaction… yet. Then again, only 9.6% of teams starting 0-2 since the 1970 merger have made the playoffs so it’s not ideal.

In 2022, Burrow’s issue was an appendectomy. This time, a calf strain that wiped out his training camp was clearly still a problem in the disastrous season opener (a 24-3 shellacking by Cleveland). And the Cincy offense stuttered yet again on Sunday: early in Q2, they’d gained 14 yards from six plays and had no first downs, and Burrow’s 35 passing yards at HT were actually down from last week. He did eventually find some sort of rhythm (27 of 41, 222 yards, 2 TDs) but with a red zone INT as well, it wasn’t enough.

Losing to an AFC North foe is one thing but having your franchise QB – and the league’s highest-paid player – unwilling to run in case of further injury is quite another. Despite the obvious caution, he still tweaked his calf late in the game and limped off. Even a couple of weeks out could totally scupper the season for Cincinnati, who only have Jake Browning and Will Grier as cover. Worryingly, in the post-game presser, Burrow could only muster “I don’t know”, “it’s tough to tell” and “we’ll see” answers when asked about his immediate and long-term fitness. 

If the Bengals are going to dig themselves out of this hole again, they’ll need Burrow available and back at his best. But at the moment, neither of those things looks very likely. [ST]

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Sean Payton can’t Hackett

Here’s a life lesson: if you have nothing nice to say, then don’t say anything at all. 

“One of the worst coaching jobs in the history of the NFL” – these are the words of Sean Payton, who replaced Nathaniel Hackett as head coach of the Denver Broncos this offseason. Those words may come back to bite the new HC in the backside as the Broncos slipped to 0-2, unfathomably a worse start than the team made under Hackett’s stewardship last term.

It is still early days and there are some small glimpses from which to take some optimism. Russell Wilson looks better than he did a year ago. Admittedly, that’s a low bar to cross but in the first half in particular, Wilson and the offense looked good. Marvin Mims had a breakout game, getting on the end of two deep shots and also posting a long punt return. Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton were back on the same field for what feels like the first time in forever, and Javonte Williams showed some nice bursts in the running game. A handsome lead grew, and optimism ensued. Maybe, finally, the Broncos had flipped the switch.

Unfortunately though, when up 21-3, a costly Wilson fumble changed the direction of the game. Washington would go on a 32-points-to-3 run with the Broncos defense gashed by Sam Howell through the air and Brian Robinson on the ground. The offense could not sustain drives and, despite a late field goal and Hail Mary almost getting Denver out of trouble, they fell short on the two-point attempt needed to tie the game. 

An ugly-looking trip across the country to the red-hot and explosive Dolphins is next on the schedule as the Broncos stare into an 0-3 hole. The progression between Wilson and Payton will determine whether this season is a success or not but the early returns are not encouraging in Mile High. [SB]

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Cool your jets on Zach

After a dramatic Week 1 win against the Bills, New York Jets quarterback Zach Wilson came back down to earth with Sunday’s 30-10 loss to Dallas. Sure, the highlight reel includes a 68-yard touchdown pass to namesake Garrett (much of which was YAC) in the first half and he kept things close for a while. But as the game began to unravel, so did he.

As we discussed last week, the Cowboys defense is rock solid, having allowed just one TD so far this season (the aforementioned Garrett Wilson catch-and-run). In particular, DOPY-in-waiting Micah Parsons is on fire. He wreaked havoc all day and got two of his team’s three sacks this weekend. The backup QB buckled under the pressure, completing just 12 of 27 (44.4%) for 170 yards and throwing three INTs in the fourth quarter, killing any faint hopes of a comeback.

To be fair, they weren’t the reason the Jets lost. His second and third turnovers came from blind-faith throws when the game was all but over anyway. But with no run game to share the load (Breece Hall, Dalvin Cook and Michael Carter combined for a paltry 24 yards, 12 less than Wilson himself), New York had little to offer without a mercurial QB able to weave some magic.

I don’t know what a healthy Aaron Rodgers would’ve done against this Dallas team but I’m guessing his second-half drives would’ve delivered more than one fumble, two three-and-outs and three interceptions. I also don’t know what the long-term answer at QB is but if this outing is anything to go by, it’s not Zach Wilson. Even if he isn’t terrible, he needs too much help around him to be good and yet HC Robert Saleh remains adamant that he’s rolling with the 24-year-old.

With the Patriots and Chiefs next up, let’s see how far they roll… and in which direction. [ST]

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Anything but a Fields day

The Chicago Bears felt they hit the jackpot in the draft. Number 1 overall pick in hand and their own quarterback of the future on the roster. Or so they thought…

Fields made improvements in Year 2, developing as a passer and adding an extra dimension with his ability in his legs. He rushed for over 1,100 yards a season ago but whether by choice or by coincidence, he doesn’t seem intent on rushing this campaign. Fields took six sacks against the Buccaneers on Sunday. On several of those sacks, the protection up front was solid for long enough for Fields to either try to escape or throw the ball away. However, Fields repeatedly held onto the ball too long, which allowed the defense to converge on him. 

Fields was fortunate to only commit two turnovers. He fumbled the ball twice, both of which the Bears managed to recover. He did, however, throw two interceptions with the game on the line. The ugliest-ever pick six might go to Shaq Barrett who was the recipient of the first gift. After a bit of pinball, the linebacker came down with the ball and was pushed into the end zone by the rest of the defense from the 4-yard line. (Barrett has dedicated this season to his late daughter Arrayah, who drowned in April aged two, and marked his first NFL TD by blowing a kiss to the sky so maybe it was also the most beautiful pick-six ever.) With the Bears now in desperation mode, 10 points behind, the next drive would lead to another interception on 3rd and 19 following a crippling 11-yard sack on 2nd down.

Fields has the ability to make some amazing throws to all levels of the field but he lacks any sort of consistency. Yesterday, he missed some wide-open targets that kept points off the board for the Bears. Fields is now almost 30 starts into his career so his lack of field vision is a huge concern for Chicago. The only silver lining would be that if Fields continues to be this bad, the team might have a chance to put it right at the next draft. Well, maybe. [SB]

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Normal service resumes in Buffalo

Forget Week 1’s poor showing against the Jets. The Bills are back in business and all is well in upstate New York.

In a blowout 38-10 win on Sunday evening, Buffalo absolutely suffocated the Las Vegas Raiders. A 75-yard TD drive on the opening possession was as good as it got for the Silver and Black, before it all became too easy for the Bills. They barely needed to get out of second gear all night.

Josh Allen went from four turnovers last week to completing his first 13 passes of the game this week, not missing a target till three minutes before half-time. He ended up with 31 of 37 (83.8%) for 274 yards and three TDs (and crucially, no INTs this time). His touchdown pass to Khalil Shakir was a great piece of improvisation after an abandoned scramble forced him to retreat, while the others – a gentle lob to Dawson Knox and an impressive cross-body throw to Gabe Davis – were both made on the run.

Offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey mixed in plenty of ground game and for once, it wasn’t all left to Allen to carry the load. The rushing attack contributed 183 yards, with James Cook’s career-high of 17 carries for 123 rushing yards complemented by Damien Harris (33 yards) and Latavius Murray (22 yards), both of whom trundled in for touchdowns. Even the run defense held firm, limiting the Raiders’ Josh Jacobs to -2 yards on nine carries (the lowest total by a reigning rushing champion in the Super Bowl era).

So it’s as you were, people. The Buffalo Bills are fine and should be right up there in the AFC title race come the end of the season. [ST]

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PICK SIX – Week 1

Welcome to our new series where two of the Full 10 Yards crew, Shaun Blundell and Sean Tyler, pick six (see what we’ve done there?!) talking points from the previous week’s slate to highlight and dissect. And with Week 1 of the new season now in the books, let’s jump straight in!

Drop three, pick six

Well, wouldn’t you just know it? Our opening talking point from the first game of the season – the Thursday night curtain-raiser between the upstart Lions and the defending champion Chiefs – was inspired by a pick six from Lions rookie safety Brian Branch. I don’t want to do Detroit a disservice – it was a great play and the Lions deserved the W – but it soon became apparent that the Chiefs were missing TE Travis Kelce (knee injury), not least because of the offensive weapons it left Patrick Mahomes with.

Skyy Moore dropped two targets, rookie wideout Rashee Rice dropped one and even RB Jerick McKinnon joined the party, but the major culprit was Kadarius Toney, with three drops. The butter-fingered receiver’s worst miss was in the third quarter when the ball ricocheted off his hands to Branch, who ran it back for a 50-yard score to tie the game at 14-14. Later in the quarter, Toney dropped a third down pass, forcing Kansas City to settle for a field goal, and his final whoopsy, with 2:25 remaining and the Chiefs trailing by one, saw a slingshot come through his grasp and away. A catch would have set up a game-winning FG try.

After the 21-20 loss, Toney deleted his Twitter/X account to avoid the inevitable flak for his ‘zero net gain’ stat line (one catch for 1 receiving yard, one carry for -1 rushing yards). Despite his 29.7 PFF grade, the lowest given to a receiver since 2018, his QB still had his back. Mahomes said of Toney “I have trust that he is going to be the guy that I go to in those crucial moments.” Let’s see if that’s true next week. [ST]

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Bang, bang, bang for your buck

When we talk about players celebrating a hat-trick, the focus is usually centered on someone on the offensive side of the ball. The Atlanta Falcons, however, relied on a star performance from their marquee summer acquisition to spark them to a 24-10 victory over the Carolina Panthers. Jessie Bates III, take a bow.

Fresh from an eye-popping four-year, $64 million deal in free agency, Bates wasted little time in starting to repay some of the faith his new team has placed upon him. He twice picked off rookie quarterback Bryce Young. 

The first was a classic interception from a safety. Watching the eyes of the quarterback and closing quickly on the ball, Bates beat former Falcon Hayden Hurst to the ball as he was crossing over the middle. It set the Falcons up in the red zone and four plays later, they had the lead. The second was almost a carbon copy. With a crossing route from the right-hand side of the Panthers formation, Bates again jumped the route beating Terrance Marshall to the ball. This time, it led to a field goal.

The trifecta was capped off on the next Panthers possession. Miles Sanders had seemingly ripped off a nice chunk of yardage only for Bates to punch the ball out and be credited with a forced fumble. The Falcons would recover and score a touchdown on the ensuing drive. One game, three turnovers and 17 points from those turnovers. Not a bad debut at all, sir! [SB]

**STOP PRESS** On Monday Night Football last night, the New York Jets went one better. Safety Jordan Whitehead played lights out, picking off the Bills’ Josh Allen THREE times as the Jets squeaked out a 22-16 OT win. What with that, a game-winning 65-yard punt return TD by rookie Xavier Gipson and Aaron Rodgers’ Achilles injury after just four plays, it’s a shame all five Hard Knocks episodes are now in the can.

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Tua and Tyreek rewrite records

Other than my own Bengals, the game that most intrigued me this week was the Dolphins vs the Chargers: two AFC teams with high hopes underpinned by notes of fragility and under-achievement. It turned out to be an absolute barnstormer, with Miami prevailing in a wild, come-from-behind 36-34 win, thanks in no small way to the lethal combo of Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill.

The Chargers played their part for sure but there’s no disgrace in coming up short against a Dolphins team intent on winning a shootout (their 16 explosive plays were the most by any team since 2014). In his first appearance since a Week 17 concussion, Tua silenced his doubters to the tune of 28 completions for 466 yards and 3 TDs. Two of those tuddies went to Hill – including a clutch game-winner with 1:45 left on the clock – as he amassed a staggering 215 yards from just 11 receptions. 

Rewriting the Super Bowl-era record books, Hill now has three games of 200+ yards and 2+ receiving TDs – a new NFL high – while Tua’s 466 yards were the most ever against the Chargers and the third-highest of any QB in Week 1. 

Ever-humble HC Mike McDaniel summed it all up afterwards by saying “That’s kind of what I expected to happen with the work that he (Tua) has done.” I feel “expected” may be a tad rich but Miami’s QB has certainly laid down a gauntlet to the rest of the league. [ST]

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Riddle me this

Welcome back Calvin Ridley! An almost-forgotten move due to its timing was the shrewd business the Jaguars pulled off by acquiring the former Falcons receiver. Fresh off his return from suspension following gambling misdemeanours, Ridley picked up right where he left off. 

He led the Jags in targets (11), receptions (8) and yards (101) along with a trip to pay dirt. It had been a whopping 686 days between regular season games for the receiver but he showed all of his class with some crisp route running and his elusiveness, tacking on plenty of yards after the catch.

The Jags as a whole stuttered to a win over what many presume will be a Colts team in rebuild mode. The offensive line had some issues and the run game was pedestrian at best. Maybe they should just let Trevor Lawrence air it out more? A great stat from Next Gen Stats summed it up perfectly: “Trevor Lawrence’s 18-yard TD pass to Zay Jones was one of three completions of 20+ air yards on the day. On passes over 10 air yards, Lawrence finished 8 of 11 for 147 yards and 2 TDs (+27.8% completion percentage over expected).”

Expect the Jags to get better as the season progresses. [SB]

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Dawgs unleashed

It has been a relatively quiet off season in Cleveland. After years of headline making for different reasons in years gone by, the Browns have fallen under the radar somewhat. In a division that has seen two star quarterbacks re-signed and resetting the market in the process, many tip Cleveland to occupy the AFC North cellar once again. Ja’Marr Chase may have lit the touchpaper ahead of kick-off with some ill-advised comments but Jim Schwartz and his unit served up a huge dose of humble pie to not just Chase, but to the entire Bengals offense.

The Browns brought the heat to Joe Burrow all day. The tone was set on the first play of the game with Za’Darius Smith getting his hands on the quarterback. The Browns would go on to record 10 QB hits and four tackles for loss, and were credited with two sacks. The second of those inevitably came from Myles Garrett who, along with his mates up front, had a field day against a sloppy Cincy offense.

Increased pressure up front was backed up by stellar play in the secondary. Tee Higgins was held to zero catches from eight targets. Their longest completed pass of the day went for just 12 yards to Chase, on the Bengals’ opening drive. That was on a third down play, and the Bengals would only complete one more third down from 14 attempts the rest of the way. Despite his fiery words, Chase couldn’t back it up and was held to a lacklustre 39 yards.

There is plenty for the Browns to sort out on offense but defensively, this was an unbelievably brilliant start to the campaign. [SB]

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Giants belittled by Cowboys D

At first glance, a 40-point win against the Giants in Sunday’s late game suggests that the Cowboys offense was cooking. Sure, Tony Pollard rushed well (82 yards, 2 TDs) but Dak Prescott completed just 13 of 24 passes for 143 yards and no TDs. So be in no doubt, the 40-0 drubbing of their divisional rivals was all about special teams and defense. Admittedly, Big Blue’s offense isn’t all that but take nothing away from Dallas DC Dan Quinn, who engineered the largest shutout win in franchise history.

His charges had Giants QB Daniel Jones under the cosh all night. They sacked him seven times, with Dorance Armstrong and Osa Odighizuwa bagging two each. Micah Parsons also got one to stall New York’s opening drive and that set the tone for the rest of the evening, with seven different Dallas players also posting tackles for loss. Brian Daboll’s team also coughed up three turnovers, including a blocked FG returned 58 yards for six by CB Noah Igbinoghene. Dallas led the league with 33 takeaways last season and carried on in a similar vein, with DaRon Bland’s 22-yard interception return TD giving the Cowboys a 16-0 lead in the first quarter (even though their offense had completed just one drive). Even Stephon Gilmore got an interception in his first outing in Cowboys colours.

As Parsons said after the game, “I think we made the statement that I’ve been trying to make: we’re the best defense in the NFL.” It’s only Week 1 and there’s a long way to go but so far, we’ve seen nothing to suggest that he’s wrong. [ST]

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Will Burrow’s deal reset the QB market?

Before we get completely deluged by Draft content, quarterback contracts are still a talking point in the NFL. There’s Aaron Rodgers’ pending move from Green Bay to “Gang Green”, with the finer details still being thrashed out. Then there’s Lamar Jackson, who wants out from Baltimore but no one seems to be rushing to acquire his services – not yet at least. And there are the contracts for Year 3 QBs that are up for extensions.

Having played three years in the league, the likes of Joe Burrow, the Chargers’ Justin Herbert, Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa and Jalen Hurts of the Eagles are now eligible to sort out long-term deals. The first to do so might get the best deal, as each new contract tends to gazump the last, pushing the benchmark ever higher. Yet regardless of whether his contract gets signed before or after the others, the widely held consensus is that Burrow might reset the QB market with the biggest deal ever seen in the NFL.

We know from the Bengals bigwigs the process is already in motion ahead of Burrow’s fifth-year option deadline. At the owners’ meeting in Kansas last week, Cincinnati’s Executive Vice President Katie Blackburn stated that nothing was imminent but confirmed that talks had started. The Bengals will want to know his long-term salary cap hit sooner than later, as they also have other mouths to feed, not least wide receivers Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. As Director of Player Personnel Duke Tobin stated at the NFL Combine, “Sooner is better. Maybe it’s the first piece to come, maybe it’s the last. But we’ll work towards it. We’re not going to rush the process. It’s of vital importance to us. It’s important to Joe, and we’ll work to get it accomplished.”

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There’s no doubt that Joe Burrow has earned the right to a huge deal. His rookie year was curtailed by a nasty ACL injury (the Bengals were 2-7-1 at the time) but a year later, he steered them to their first Super Bowl appearance since 1988. And in 2022, despite an emergency appendectomy during the offseason, he led Cincy’s return to the AFC Championship game and ended a 12-4 campaign with a 35 TD:12 INT ratio and a 68.3% completion rate. Over the past two seasons, only the Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes, now-retired Tom Brady and Justin Herbert have logged more passing yards, and he trailed only Mahomes and Buffalo’s Josh Allen for passing touchdowns. Having set his team’s single-season passing yard and touchdown records, he is definitely in line to land a huge contract.

So what else tells us that he’s in line for a mega-payday? Well, despite the (increasingly inaccurate and outdated) reputation for being cheapskates, the Bengals traditionally pay their QBs handsomely. Andy Dalton signed a six-year, $115m extension in 2014. Before him, Carson Palmer penned an extension worth $118m over nine years. Going back yet further to 1990, Boomer Esiason became the second-highest paid player in the league with a six-year, $16m deal (those were the days, eh?). So the precedent is there: owner Mike Brown isn’t afraid to open his wallet when it comes to his quarterbacks.

The ever-rising salary cap is another factor here. It climbed to $224.8m for the forthcoming 2023 season, up nearly $20m on 2022, and that level of increase is widely expected to continue for the rest of the decade. So if the pot of money keeps getting bigger, Cincinnati should be able to dig deeper to keep the likes of Burrow happy.

All this contract shenanigans doesn’t happen in a vacuum so we can’t ignore the current QB market either. In recent weeks, we’ve seen Seattle’s Geno Smith pen a three-year, $105m deal ($35m/year) and Daniel Jones sign a four-year, $160m contract ($40m/year) with the Giants. At the top of the current list, Aaron Rodgers is the only NFL quarterback with an average salary over $50m a year. Sure, Mahomes signed the biggest total contract ($450m over 10 years) but he still trails Rodgers ($50.2m), Russell Wilson in Denver ($49m), Arizona’s Kyler Murray ($46.1m) and Deshaun Watson in Cleveland ($46m) when it comes to annual salary.

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To recap, there’s a strong argument for believing that Joey B is about to recalibrate the QB market. His performances over the last two years warrant it. The Bengals always pay their QBs. The size of other recent deals is on the rise, as is the salary cap. Everything suggests he’s in line to receive for a historic pile of moolah. How historic? Well, Yahoo Sports’ Charles Robinson states, “I’ve had a chance to talk to people now, and they’re already saying Burrow is going to get $55m. He might even get $6om.” Cap expert Andre Perotta suggested eight years/£408m ($51m/year). And most recently, Brad Spielberger of Pro Football Focus projected a four-year deal worth $214m, which works out at a benchmark-setting annual salary of $53.5m.

But yet… There’s just something niggling away at the back of my mind that says “nope, he’s not going to top the list”. So why am I thinking that?

Well, for one, I’ve seen that Spotrac projects Burrow to earn around $44m/year, based on his current market value. I actually think that undersells him a bit, but I can still see something under the magic 50-mark being possible.

My sense is that Burrow is a shrewd chap. I’m not expecting the lad who attended high school in Athens, Ohio, to offer Cincinnati a home-town discount and leave millions on the table. But like TB12 before him, he could be open to a more team-friendly deal – one that helps the Bengals retain Chase and Higgins (a free agent after next season), as well as Logan Wilson, DJ Reader and others with contract negotiations on the horizon. By his own admission, Burrow sees his Super Bowl window as his “entire career”, he wants to stay a Bengal and wants HC Zac Taylor to be there for the duration too.

Ja’Marr Chase himself said, “At the end of the day, I don’t think Joe is really too worried about how much money he’s going to make because he’s already making a tremendous amount. But it’ll all work out. I think Joe knows how he wants to set up his contract to keep some of his weapons around him. And I think that’s the biggest part for him.” These sentiments were echoed by Tobin, who told The Athletic that Burrow is aware of how his contract will impact the rest of the team. “I think Joe understands better than most people. That’s what makes him a great player. Joe sees the big picture.”

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Heaven only knows what the numbers will be but the quotes from Chase and Tobin give me faith that on-field success outweighs hard cash. He can still “get his bag”, as they say, but not at the expense of the rest of the roster. First and foremost, #9 wants to win games, division titles, conference crowns and Super Bowls. I’m not suggesting his next deal follows in the footsteps of Tom Brady, whose biggest-ever contract was his two-year, $50m deal with the Buccaneers. After all, Burrow deserves to be paid what he’s worth – but there are ways and means to do so that suit both team and player.

Like an incentive-based deal, for example. With the Bills, Josh Allen chose to sign a below-market deal of $43m/year, but it was incentive-based, reducing the cap hit. Mahomes’ deal is also loaded with annual incentives, including $1.25m a year for reaching the Super Bowl and $1.25m for winning the league MVP title (so far, so good!). Something similar might work for Joey B; after all, he thinks his team will be contenders for years to come if he can keep the band together. Being locked in for a decade like Mahomes might not be ideal but a long(ish) contract also makes sense. It’ll mean other quarterbacks will eventually pass him in annual salary, making it increasingly good value for the team over time, and it’ll give them some wiggle room should more accounting gymnastics be required.

So after all this to-ing and fro-ing, where am I landing? I’m thinking six years (the same as Allen, less than Mahomes), which is long enough to allow time for some mid-contract restructuring. And I’m thinking $288 million (a fair way behind Mahomes in total contract value but above everyone else) could swing it, which equates to $48 million/year (more than Mahomes, Allen, Watson and Murray but below Rodgers and Wilson). Enough to set you, your kids and your grandkids up (very comfortably) for life, but not a figure that sets new precedents.

I’m sure it can be done with a bit of give and take on both sides. Let’s see if it comes to pass.

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Free Agency Preview: Top 10 Players

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It’s that time of year, again, free agency! Star players such as  Lamar Jackson, Bobby Wagner, and Javon Hargrave, among others, all might be on the move in the coming days. Who else is available?

Whilst the new league new year doesn’t actually start until Wednesday, from 5 PM GMT today, teams will be able to contact players regarding contracts, triggering the start of free agency, and movement in the hours afterwards.

Who are the Top 10 players in the 2023 Free Agency Class?

1. Lamar Jackson – QB

Baltimore strangely decided to use the non-exclusive franchise tag on their former MVP quarterback, meaning he is now available for the price of two first-round picks, technically keeping him a free agent.

While a move is unlikely at this point due to Jackson wanting a fully guaranteed contract, if any team wanted to put a contract on the table, Baltimore would then have five days to match the offer.

If no one wants Lamar what does he do? Hold out? Play on the tag? Or agree to an improvised contract?

2. Javon Hargrave – IDL

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At the age of 30, Hargrave looks set to be on his third contract for his third team. Due to the interior defensive line class being one of the weaker position groups, he looks set to be in for a big payday.

Hargrave is one of many Eagles defensive players set to test free agency after making the Super Bowl in February. He had a career-high 11 sacks, putting up an 80.1 PFF grade, tied for 11th highest at IDL in the league.

3. Bobby Wagner – LB

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On top of Jackson, another man who will be the talk of the next week is Bobby Wagner. The nine-time All-Pro linebacker, eight-time pro bowler, and 2013 Super Bowl champion is coming off a strong season and chasing another ring.

Even at the age of 32, Wagner is still one of the top free agents and the league’s best at his position, putting up only a 2.9% missed tackle percentage and NFL best 90.7 PFF grade in 2022.

4. Tremaine Edmunds – LB

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At the young age of 24, Edmunds has already played five seasons and is on to his second contract. He’s one of the most sought-after players in this free agency class, but will he re-sign with Buffalo?

In 2022 he put up a career-high PFF grade of 81.9, the 5th best among all linebackers. Six pass breakups was also the best in his young career, as was a 6.5% missed tackle percentage. 

5. Lavonte David – LB

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Another player going strong in his 30’s is Lavonte David. Whilst he won’t make as much as the other two big linebackers testing free agency, he is an excellent pick-up for a contender.

In a down year for the Buccaneers’ defense, David still managed an 85.1 grade, the fourth-highest of his career, and the third-best number of all linebackers in 2022.

6. Orlando Brown Jr – OT

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With offensive tackle being a premium position in free agency, another big money maker will be Orlando Brown Jr. After being unable to agree to a long-term deal with Kansas City a top tackle is set to test the market.

2022 was a pro bowl season for Brown, who was the 19th-best offensive tackle according to PFF. He only allowed four sacks and seven quarterback hits on the year. 

7. Jessie Bates III – S

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Bates is the first of two Cincinnati Bengals safeties to test free agency this week. He’s definitely earned his big contract over the years, but will he choose to stay and help a real contender?

He would be a huge loss for Zac Taylor’s team, and may well be a bit cheaper than he was last offseason after a down year in coverage. That being said, Bates was as great in the box, posting the fifth-best run defense grade of all safeties. 

8. Marcus Davenport – EDGE

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Davenport is a bit of a strange one, because he only put up one sack last year, but is still a top player at his position. Whilst he still had seven quarterback hits, the one sack was a career low.

Had he been a free agent after a strong 2021 season, he may well be a whole lot richer. Whilst the end product wasn’t their Davenport still had a good year in many categories. Will he make a similar jump to Trey Hendrickson, should he leave New Orleans?

9. Mike McGlinchey – OT

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Mike McGlinchey is another top tackle who is expected to make a buck or two this week. He’s a solid player who’s always played at the calibre of the top half of the players at his position in his five years in San Francisco.

2022 saw the 49ers reach the NFC Championship game, and McGlinchey allowed the lowest amount of pressures in a full season in his career. Could a reunion with Mike McDaniel in Miami be a fit?

10. James Bradberry – CB 

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In his one and only year in Philadelphia, James Bradberry earned himself another big contract. The 29 year old made it all the way to the Super Bowl having only joined the team in May.

Bradberry was as excellent as ever in coverage, allowing a 54.2 passer rating, the 3rd lowest number among all cornerbacks, and intercepting the ball three times on top of the 12 pass breakups.  

Follow us at Full10Yards to keep up to date with all the latest moves this week, as well as the upcoming NFL draft. Be sure to get in touch on both Facebook and Twitter.

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5 things we learned in the 2023 Divisional Round

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With the two Conference Championship games now set, the Divisional round left many teams with more questions than answers

1. Could Cincinnati be the AFC favourites?

The odds were stacked against Zac Taylor’s Cincinnati Bengals heading into Sunday’s early game, but those in the tiger-striped helmets prevailed as a postseason underdog once again.

Much was made about the loss of three key starters on the offensive line for Cinci, but that makeshift unit performed admirably on Sunday. The Bengals controlled the line of scrimmage and kept their quarterback upright.

Lou Anarumo delivered yet another outstanding playoff gameplan, holding Josh Allen and the Bills to ten points. Even the home-field advantage (of snow) couldn’t get them going in a game that seemed so one-sided from the start.

2. Buffalo’s Super Bowl window is closing

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Was this the Buffalo Bills’ year? After another heartbreaking loss in the divisional round, it appears that Sean McDermott’s Bills’ Super Bowl window is closing.

We know Josh Allen is locked in after his recent contract extension, but some key pieces are impeding free agents, with little cap room to manoeuvre. As with all teams who are good enough to enter themselves into a Super Bowl window, you can’t afford to pay everyone.

Tremaine Edmonds and Jordan Poyer look set to test the market, with the likes of Von Miller, Matt Milano, Tre’davious White and Micah Hyde all on decent money on defense.

3. The Jacksonville Jaguars are about to pounce

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Despite losing to the Kansas City Chiefs with Patrick Mahomes on one ankle, the future is certainly bright in Jacksonville. A young Jags team hung in there with the conference’s number-one seed, despite having far inferior talent.

Trevor Lawrence was without the early playoff nerves displayed in the Chargers game but sadly doesn’t possess the supporting cast required to compete against a team that will play in a fifth straight AFC championship game.

Coach Doug Pederson and general manager Trent Baalke will be encouraged by what they’ve seen from their young quarterback this season. Lawrence’s development will enable them to build around him in the coming off-season.

4. Serious eyes are on Dak Prescott

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Are the Dallas Cowboys sure that Prescott is the guy? After the league’s turnover leader threw three more interceptions in a game he should have won on Sunday night, serious questions are being raised about the man they are paying $40 million per year.

Being a game manager can get you wins in the NFC, but it will never win you a Super Bowl against the likes of Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Joe Burrow.

On that kind of money, you’d think Prescott would be a top-five quarterback, but he’d barely crack the top half of the league’s best quarterbacks.

5. San Fransisco can be slowed down

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In their loss at Levi’s Stadium, Dallas defensive coordinator Dan Quinn laid out a blueprint for slowing down the San Francisco 49ers offense.

Kyle Shanahan’s offense has been on fire lately, especially since the Christian McCaffrey trade, winning 12 straight games and scoring less than 30 points only four times in that span.

McCaffrey and Elijah Mitchell combined for 3.55 yards per carry on Sunday night, a significant decrease from their season average of 5.4. The Philadelphia Eagles, their opponent on Sunday, have the second-best defense in terms of yards per game during the regular season.

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5 things we learned on Super Wild Card Weekend

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The NFL’s second Super Wild Card Weekend was even better than the first, here are five things we learned in the first round of the playoffs.

1. The Los Angeles Chargers are poorly coached

Saturday night saw the Chargers blow a 27-point lead in spectacular fashion. Their opponent, the Jacksonville Jaguars pulled the score back to 27-7 to close out the first half, before going on to win 31-30.

Awful clock management from the Chargers’ coaching staff after halftime contributed to the loss, only choosing to run a baffling eight times. That allowed the Jags to come back and steal a game that looked so one-sided.

Brandon Staley has since fired his offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi, and QB coach Shane Day.  Perhaps these moves are intended to divert attention away from a head coach who has made a number of questionable decisions over the last two years.

2. Josh Allen’s turnovers are a big problem

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Allen’s Buffalo Bills were fortunate not to lose to the Miami Dolphins and their third-string quarterback, Skylar Thompson, in the early game on Sunday. Allen’s three turnover-worthy plays brought the Fins back into a game that had previously been out of reach. 

Interceptions by Dolphins defensive backs Xavien Howard and Jevon Holland resulted in scoring drives, while defensive tackle Zach Sieler recovered a fumble for a touchdown. 

There’s no denying he’s one of the best quarterbacks in the game, but his risk-or-reward treatment of the football almost proved costly on Sunday. During the regular season, Allen not only had the most big-time throws (44), but he also tied for the most TWPs with Geno Smith (29).

3. Brian Daboll is the Coach of the Year

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The NFL Coach of the Year for the 2022 season has to be Brian Daboll. His Giants team has showed so much fight this season, winning multiple games they shouldn’t have been talented enough to do so.

Daniel Jones has been very impressive this season, looking like a top-15 quarterback whilst having a set of practice squad receivers. Not bad for a man whose fifth-year option was declined in the offseason. By all accounts, he’s earned a new deal. That’s down to Daboll.

Wink Martindale was an excellent hire this off-season. He put out an excellent defensive plan to stop Justin Jefferson and the rest of the Vikings’ high-powered offense.

4. Cincinnati has real offensive line problems

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The Cincinnati Bengals are right back to where they were at the start of this season, just a big hit away from their franchise quarterback, Joe Burrow, getting hurt again.

Injuries have decimated the unit after Jonah Williams (knee) added to the growing injury list of La’el Collins (ACL) and Alex Cappa (ankle) on Sunday night.

Ted Karras is the only offensive lineman with a PFF grade of over 60, and one of only two lineman with enough snaps to be ranked by the stats company this season. Look for the Bills defensive line to have a field day on Sunday, similar to what Pittsburgh did in Week One.

5. Tom Brady is done in Tampa Bay

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After his team’s 31-14 loss to the Dallas Cowboys, Brady thanked reporters for their hard work over the season, almost as if he was signalling it was time for a change. He is a free agent this coming offseason.

With how the last 12 months have played out for TB12 and the Buccaneers, it makes sense to move on. Whether or not the greatest player in history retries is a different question; prior to the loss, the general consensus was that he’d return for one more year. 

Over the past 24 hours that looks slightly less likely, especially with the signs of decline he showed on Monday night, making multiple odd decisions in the first half. Whatever happens, I believe it is safe to say Tom Brady will not be in Tampa Bay next season.