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PICK SIX – Week 1

Welcome to our new series where two of the Full 10 Yards crew, Shaun Blundell and Sean Tyler, pick six (see what we’ve done there?!) talking points from the previous week’s slate to highlight and dissect. And with Week 1 of the new season now in the books, let’s jump straight in!

Drop three, pick six

Well, wouldn’t you just know it? Our opening talking point from the first game of the season – the Thursday night curtain-raiser between the upstart Lions and the defending champion Chiefs – was inspired by a pick six from Lions rookie safety Brian Branch. I don’t want to do Detroit a disservice – it was a great play and the Lions deserved the W – but it soon became apparent that the Chiefs were missing TE Travis Kelce (knee injury), not least because of the offensive weapons it left Patrick Mahomes with.

Skyy Moore dropped two targets, rookie wideout Rashee Rice dropped one and even RB Jerick McKinnon joined the party, but the major culprit was Kadarius Toney, with three drops. The butter-fingered receiver’s worst miss was in the third quarter when the ball ricocheted off his hands to Branch, who ran it back for a 50-yard score to tie the game at 14-14. Later in the quarter, Toney dropped a third down pass, forcing Kansas City to settle for a field goal, and his final whoopsy, with 2:25 remaining and the Chiefs trailing by one, saw a slingshot come through his grasp and away. A catch would have set up a game-winning FG try.

After the 21-20 loss, Toney deleted his Twitter/X account to avoid the inevitable flak for his ‘zero net gain’ stat line (one catch for 1 receiving yard, one carry for -1 rushing yards). Despite his 29.7 PFF grade, the lowest given to a receiver since 2018, his QB still had his back. Mahomes said of Toney “I have trust that he is going to be the guy that I go to in those crucial moments.” Let’s see if that’s true next week. [ST]

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Bang, bang, bang for your buck

When we talk about players celebrating a hat-trick, the focus is usually centered on someone on the offensive side of the ball. The Atlanta Falcons, however, relied on a star performance from their marquee summer acquisition to spark them to a 24-10 victory over the Carolina Panthers. Jessie Bates III, take a bow.

Fresh from an eye-popping four-year, $64 million deal in free agency, Bates wasted little time in starting to repay some of the faith his new team has placed upon him. He twice picked off rookie quarterback Bryce Young. 

The first was a classic interception from a safety. Watching the eyes of the quarterback and closing quickly on the ball, Bates beat former Falcon Hayden Hurst to the ball as he was crossing over the middle. It set the Falcons up in the red zone and four plays later, they had the lead. The second was almost a carbon copy. With a crossing route from the right-hand side of the Panthers formation, Bates again jumped the route beating Terrance Marshall to the ball. This time, it led to a field goal.

The trifecta was capped off on the next Panthers possession. Miles Sanders had seemingly ripped off a nice chunk of yardage only for Bates to punch the ball out and be credited with a forced fumble. The Falcons would recover and score a touchdown on the ensuing drive. One game, three turnovers and 17 points from those turnovers. Not a bad debut at all, sir! [SB]

**STOP PRESS** On Monday Night Football last night, the New York Jets went one better. Safety Jordan Whitehead played lights out, picking off the Bills’ Josh Allen THREE times as the Jets squeaked out a 22-16 OT win. What with that, a game-winning 65-yard punt return TD by rookie Xavier Gipson and Aaron Rodgers’ Achilles injury after just four plays, it’s a shame all five Hard Knocks episodes are now in the can.

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Tua and Tyreek rewrite records

Other than my own Bengals, the game that most intrigued me this week was the Dolphins vs the Chargers: two AFC teams with high hopes underpinned by notes of fragility and under-achievement. It turned out to be an absolute barnstormer, with Miami prevailing in a wild, come-from-behind 36-34 win, thanks in no small way to the lethal combo of Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill.

The Chargers played their part for sure but there’s no disgrace in coming up short against a Dolphins team intent on winning a shootout (their 16 explosive plays were the most by any team since 2014). In his first appearance since a Week 17 concussion, Tua silenced his doubters to the tune of 28 completions for 466 yards and 3 TDs. Two of those tuddies went to Hill – including a clutch game-winner with 1:45 left on the clock – as he amassed a staggering 215 yards from just 11 receptions. 

Rewriting the Super Bowl-era record books, Hill now has three games of 200+ yards and 2+ receiving TDs – a new NFL high – while Tua’s 466 yards were the most ever against the Chargers and the third-highest of any QB in Week 1. 

Ever-humble HC Mike McDaniel summed it all up afterwards by saying “That’s kind of what I expected to happen with the work that he (Tua) has done.” I feel “expected” may be a tad rich but Miami’s QB has certainly laid down a gauntlet to the rest of the league. [ST]

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Riddle me this

Welcome back Calvin Ridley! An almost-forgotten move due to its timing was the shrewd business the Jaguars pulled off by acquiring the former Falcons receiver. Fresh off his return from suspension following gambling misdemeanours, Ridley picked up right where he left off. 

He led the Jags in targets (11), receptions (8) and yards (101) along with a trip to pay dirt. It had been a whopping 686 days between regular season games for the receiver but he showed all of his class with some crisp route running and his elusiveness, tacking on plenty of yards after the catch.

The Jags as a whole stuttered to a win over what many presume will be a Colts team in rebuild mode. The offensive line had some issues and the run game was pedestrian at best. Maybe they should just let Trevor Lawrence air it out more? A great stat from Next Gen Stats summed it up perfectly: “Trevor Lawrence’s 18-yard TD pass to Zay Jones was one of three completions of 20+ air yards on the day. On passes over 10 air yards, Lawrence finished 8 of 11 for 147 yards and 2 TDs (+27.8% completion percentage over expected).”

Expect the Jags to get better as the season progresses. [SB]

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Dawgs unleashed

It has been a relatively quiet off season in Cleveland. After years of headline making for different reasons in years gone by, the Browns have fallen under the radar somewhat. In a division that has seen two star quarterbacks re-signed and resetting the market in the process, many tip Cleveland to occupy the AFC North cellar once again. Ja’Marr Chase may have lit the touchpaper ahead of kick-off with some ill-advised comments but Jim Schwartz and his unit served up a huge dose of humble pie to not just Chase, but to the entire Bengals offense.

The Browns brought the heat to Joe Burrow all day. The tone was set on the first play of the game with Za’Darius Smith getting his hands on the quarterback. The Browns would go on to record 10 QB hits and four tackles for loss, and were credited with two sacks. The second of those inevitably came from Myles Garrett who, along with his mates up front, had a field day against a sloppy Cincy offense.

Increased pressure up front was backed up by stellar play in the secondary. Tee Higgins was held to zero catches from eight targets. Their longest completed pass of the day went for just 12 yards to Chase, on the Bengals’ opening drive. That was on a third down play, and the Bengals would only complete one more third down from 14 attempts the rest of the way. Despite his fiery words, Chase couldn’t back it up and was held to a lacklustre 39 yards.

There is plenty for the Browns to sort out on offense but defensively, this was an unbelievably brilliant start to the campaign. [SB]

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Giants belittled by Cowboys D

At first glance, a 40-point win against the Giants in Sunday’s late game suggests that the Cowboys offense was cooking. Sure, Tony Pollard rushed well (82 yards, 2 TDs) but Dak Prescott completed just 13 of 24 passes for 143 yards and no TDs. So be in no doubt, the 40-0 drubbing of their divisional rivals was all about special teams and defense. Admittedly, Big Blue’s offense isn’t all that but take nothing away from Dallas DC Dan Quinn, who engineered the largest shutout win in franchise history.

His charges had Giants QB Daniel Jones under the cosh all night. They sacked him seven times, with Dorance Armstrong and Osa Odighizuwa bagging two each. Micah Parsons also got one to stall New York’s opening drive and that set the tone for the rest of the evening, with seven different Dallas players also posting tackles for loss. Brian Daboll’s team also coughed up three turnovers, including a blocked FG returned 58 yards for six by CB Noah Igbinoghene. Dallas led the league with 33 takeaways last season and carried on in a similar vein, with DaRon Bland’s 22-yard interception return TD giving the Cowboys a 16-0 lead in the first quarter (even though their offense had completed just one drive). Even Stephon Gilmore got an interception in his first outing in Cowboys colours.

As Parsons said after the game, “I think we made the statement that I’ve been trying to make: we’re the best defense in the NFL.” It’s only Week 1 and there’s a long way to go but so far, we’ve seen nothing to suggest that he’s wrong. [ST]

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Will Burrow’s deal reset the QB market?

Before we get completely deluged by Draft content, quarterback contracts are still a talking point in the NFL. There’s Aaron Rodgers’ pending move from Green Bay to “Gang Green”, with the finer details still being thrashed out. Then there’s Lamar Jackson, who wants out from Baltimore but no one seems to be rushing to acquire his services – not yet at least. And there are the contracts for Year 3 QBs that are up for extensions.

Having played three years in the league, the likes of Joe Burrow, the Chargers’ Justin Herbert, Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa and Jalen Hurts of the Eagles are now eligible to sort out long-term deals. The first to do so might get the best deal, as each new contract tends to gazump the last, pushing the benchmark ever higher. Yet regardless of whether his contract gets signed before or after the others, the widely held consensus is that Burrow might reset the QB market with the biggest deal ever seen in the NFL.

We know from the Bengals bigwigs the process is already in motion ahead of Burrow’s fifth-year option deadline. At the owners’ meeting in Kansas last week, Cincinnati’s Executive Vice President Katie Blackburn stated that nothing was imminent but confirmed that talks had started. The Bengals will want to know his long-term salary cap hit sooner than later, as they also have other mouths to feed, not least wide receivers Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. As Director of Player Personnel Duke Tobin stated at the NFL Combine, “Sooner is better. Maybe it’s the first piece to come, maybe it’s the last. But we’ll work towards it. We’re not going to rush the process. It’s of vital importance to us. It’s important to Joe, and we’ll work to get it accomplished.”

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There’s no doubt that Joe Burrow has earned the right to a huge deal. His rookie year was curtailed by a nasty ACL injury (the Bengals were 2-7-1 at the time) but a year later, he steered them to their first Super Bowl appearance since 1988. And in 2022, despite an emergency appendectomy during the offseason, he led Cincy’s return to the AFC Championship game and ended a 12-4 campaign with a 35 TD:12 INT ratio and a 68.3% completion rate. Over the past two seasons, only the Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes, now-retired Tom Brady and Justin Herbert have logged more passing yards, and he trailed only Mahomes and Buffalo’s Josh Allen for passing touchdowns. Having set his team’s single-season passing yard and touchdown records, he is definitely in line to land a huge contract.

So what else tells us that he’s in line for a mega-payday? Well, despite the (increasingly inaccurate and outdated) reputation for being cheapskates, the Bengals traditionally pay their QBs handsomely. Andy Dalton signed a six-year, $115m extension in 2014. Before him, Carson Palmer penned an extension worth $118m over nine years. Going back yet further to 1990, Boomer Esiason became the second-highest paid player in the league with a six-year, $16m deal (those were the days, eh?). So the precedent is there: owner Mike Brown isn’t afraid to open his wallet when it comes to his quarterbacks.

The ever-rising salary cap is another factor here. It climbed to $224.8m for the forthcoming 2023 season, up nearly $20m on 2022, and that level of increase is widely expected to continue for the rest of the decade. So if the pot of money keeps getting bigger, Cincinnati should be able to dig deeper to keep the likes of Burrow happy.

All this contract shenanigans doesn’t happen in a vacuum so we can’t ignore the current QB market either. In recent weeks, we’ve seen Seattle’s Geno Smith pen a three-year, $105m deal ($35m/year) and Daniel Jones sign a four-year, $160m contract ($40m/year) with the Giants. At the top of the current list, Aaron Rodgers is the only NFL quarterback with an average salary over $50m a year. Sure, Mahomes signed the biggest total contract ($450m over 10 years) but he still trails Rodgers ($50.2m), Russell Wilson in Denver ($49m), Arizona’s Kyler Murray ($46.1m) and Deshaun Watson in Cleveland ($46m) when it comes to annual salary.

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To recap, there’s a strong argument for believing that Joey B is about to recalibrate the QB market. His performances over the last two years warrant it. The Bengals always pay their QBs. The size of other recent deals is on the rise, as is the salary cap. Everything suggests he’s in line to receive for a historic pile of moolah. How historic? Well, Yahoo Sports’ Charles Robinson states, “I’ve had a chance to talk to people now, and they’re already saying Burrow is going to get $55m. He might even get $6om.” Cap expert Andre Perotta suggested eight years/£408m ($51m/year). And most recently, Brad Spielberger of Pro Football Focus projected a four-year deal worth $214m, which works out at a benchmark-setting annual salary of $53.5m.

But yet… There’s just something niggling away at the back of my mind that says “nope, he’s not going to top the list”. So why am I thinking that?

Well, for one, I’ve seen that Spotrac projects Burrow to earn around $44m/year, based on his current market value. I actually think that undersells him a bit, but I can still see something under the magic 50-mark being possible.

My sense is that Burrow is a shrewd chap. I’m not expecting the lad who attended high school in Athens, Ohio, to offer Cincinnati a home-town discount and leave millions on the table. But like TB12 before him, he could be open to a more team-friendly deal – one that helps the Bengals retain Chase and Higgins (a free agent after next season), as well as Logan Wilson, DJ Reader and others with contract negotiations on the horizon. By his own admission, Burrow sees his Super Bowl window as his “entire career”, he wants to stay a Bengal and wants HC Zac Taylor to be there for the duration too.

Ja’Marr Chase himself said, “At the end of the day, I don’t think Joe is really too worried about how much money he’s going to make because he’s already making a tremendous amount. But it’ll all work out. I think Joe knows how he wants to set up his contract to keep some of his weapons around him. And I think that’s the biggest part for him.” These sentiments were echoed by Tobin, who told The Athletic that Burrow is aware of how his contract will impact the rest of the team. “I think Joe understands better than most people. That’s what makes him a great player. Joe sees the big picture.”

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Heaven only knows what the numbers will be but the quotes from Chase and Tobin give me faith that on-field success outweighs hard cash. He can still “get his bag”, as they say, but not at the expense of the rest of the roster. First and foremost, #9 wants to win games, division titles, conference crowns and Super Bowls. I’m not suggesting his next deal follows in the footsteps of Tom Brady, whose biggest-ever contract was his two-year, $50m deal with the Buccaneers. After all, Burrow deserves to be paid what he’s worth – but there are ways and means to do so that suit both team and player.

Like an incentive-based deal, for example. With the Bills, Josh Allen chose to sign a below-market deal of $43m/year, but it was incentive-based, reducing the cap hit. Mahomes’ deal is also loaded with annual incentives, including $1.25m a year for reaching the Super Bowl and $1.25m for winning the league MVP title (so far, so good!). Something similar might work for Joey B; after all, he thinks his team will be contenders for years to come if he can keep the band together. Being locked in for a decade like Mahomes might not be ideal but a long(ish) contract also makes sense. It’ll mean other quarterbacks will eventually pass him in annual salary, making it increasingly good value for the team over time, and it’ll give them some wiggle room should more accounting gymnastics be required.

So after all this to-ing and fro-ing, where am I landing? I’m thinking six years (the same as Allen, less than Mahomes), which is long enough to allow time for some mid-contract restructuring. And I’m thinking $288 million (a fair way behind Mahomes in total contract value but above everyone else) could swing it, which equates to $48 million/year (more than Mahomes, Allen, Watson and Murray but below Rodgers and Wilson). Enough to set you, your kids and your grandkids up (very comfortably) for life, but not a figure that sets new precedents.

I’m sure it can be done with a bit of give and take on both sides. Let’s see if it comes to pass.

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Free Agency Preview: Top 10 Players

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It’s that time of year, again, free agency! Star players such as  Lamar Jackson, Bobby Wagner, and Javon Hargrave, among others, all might be on the move in the coming days. Who else is available?

Whilst the new league new year doesn’t actually start until Wednesday, from 5 PM GMT today, teams will be able to contact players regarding contracts, triggering the start of free agency, and movement in the hours afterwards.

Who are the Top 10 players in the 2023 Free Agency Class?

1. Lamar Jackson – QB

Baltimore strangely decided to use the non-exclusive franchise tag on their former MVP quarterback, meaning he is now available for the price of two first-round picks, technically keeping him a free agent.

While a move is unlikely at this point due to Jackson wanting a fully guaranteed contract, if any team wanted to put a contract on the table, Baltimore would then have five days to match the offer.

If no one wants Lamar what does he do? Hold out? Play on the tag? Or agree to an improvised contract?

2. Javon Hargrave – IDL

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At the age of 30, Hargrave looks set to be on his third contract for his third team. Due to the interior defensive line class being one of the weaker position groups, he looks set to be in for a big payday.

Hargrave is one of many Eagles defensive players set to test free agency after making the Super Bowl in February. He had a career-high 11 sacks, putting up an 80.1 PFF grade, tied for 11th highest at IDL in the league.

3. Bobby Wagner – LB

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On top of Jackson, another man who will be the talk of the next week is Bobby Wagner. The nine-time All-Pro linebacker, eight-time pro bowler, and 2013 Super Bowl champion is coming off a strong season and chasing another ring.

Even at the age of 32, Wagner is still one of the top free agents and the league’s best at his position, putting up only a 2.9% missed tackle percentage and NFL best 90.7 PFF grade in 2022.

4. Tremaine Edmunds – LB

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At the young age of 24, Edmunds has already played five seasons and is on to his second contract. He’s one of the most sought-after players in this free agency class, but will he re-sign with Buffalo?

In 2022 he put up a career-high PFF grade of 81.9, the 5th best among all linebackers. Six pass breakups was also the best in his young career, as was a 6.5% missed tackle percentage. 

5. Lavonte David – LB

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Another player going strong in his 30’s is Lavonte David. Whilst he won’t make as much as the other two big linebackers testing free agency, he is an excellent pick-up for a contender.

In a down year for the Buccaneers’ defense, David still managed an 85.1 grade, the fourth-highest of his career, and the third-best number of all linebackers in 2022.

6. Orlando Brown Jr – OT

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With offensive tackle being a premium position in free agency, another big money maker will be Orlando Brown Jr. After being unable to agree to a long-term deal with Kansas City a top tackle is set to test the market.

2022 was a pro bowl season for Brown, who was the 19th-best offensive tackle according to PFF. He only allowed four sacks and seven quarterback hits on the year. 

7. Jessie Bates III – S

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Bates is the first of two Cincinnati Bengals safeties to test free agency this week. He’s definitely earned his big contract over the years, but will he choose to stay and help a real contender?

He would be a huge loss for Zac Taylor’s team, and may well be a bit cheaper than he was last offseason after a down year in coverage. That being said, Bates was as great in the box, posting the fifth-best run defense grade of all safeties. 

8. Marcus Davenport – EDGE

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Davenport is a bit of a strange one, because he only put up one sack last year, but is still a top player at his position. Whilst he still had seven quarterback hits, the one sack was a career low.

Had he been a free agent after a strong 2021 season, he may well be a whole lot richer. Whilst the end product wasn’t their Davenport still had a good year in many categories. Will he make a similar jump to Trey Hendrickson, should he leave New Orleans?

9. Mike McGlinchey – OT

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Mike McGlinchey is another top tackle who is expected to make a buck or two this week. He’s a solid player who’s always played at the calibre of the top half of the players at his position in his five years in San Francisco.

2022 saw the 49ers reach the NFC Championship game, and McGlinchey allowed the lowest amount of pressures in a full season in his career. Could a reunion with Mike McDaniel in Miami be a fit?

10. James Bradberry – CB 

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In his one and only year in Philadelphia, James Bradberry earned himself another big contract. The 29 year old made it all the way to the Super Bowl having only joined the team in May.

Bradberry was as excellent as ever in coverage, allowing a 54.2 passer rating, the 3rd lowest number among all cornerbacks, and intercepting the ball three times on top of the 12 pass breakups.  

Follow us at Full10Yards to keep up to date with all the latest moves this week, as well as the upcoming NFL draft. Be sure to get in touch on both Facebook and Twitter.

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F10Y Betting; Super Bowl Novelty Bets; #SuperBowl #SBLVII

It’s officially Super Bowl week and as we look forward to the big one in Glendale, Arizona we want to first have a look at the stupid punts available for the game, and of course, there are more than ever in the week building up to the game.

There’s a myriad of markets available, mainly in the UK on SkyBet although PaddyPower will offer a few markets as well – After checking this, apparently, there are sod all places offering markets on Novelty bets for the Super Bowl, which is a little tedious. I’ll keep a lookout on other sites, but for now pretty much everything on this post will be Skybet.

So, let’s have a nose through from beginning to end and see if there’s anything we can jump on.

Final note before this – KEEP AN EYE ON TWITTER AND MOVE QUICKLY – There will be people leaking information from rehearsals, so you can get some easy wins before the action starts if you work quickly.

Obviously, go easy on these markets, they are stupid, and good for a bit of fun, so don’t go staking stupid amounts on things even after the inevitable leak.

Gambleaware.org

Pre-Game

Coin Toss

History; Because it’s DEFINITELY a predictive thing… 29-27 to Tails, the last two have been Heads leading them to 6 in the last 10 years.

Out of interest, weirdly the winner of the Coin Toss tends to lose the game – In fact, the last NINE winners of the coin toss have gone on to lose the game, it makes no sense, but there we are. – That is a bet-able market – “Will the coin toss winner win the game” – Obviously the no seems like the way to go there. 10/11 on both sides on PaddyPower.

Now, I have requested a market that SkyBet priced up last year, which was simply what the Chiefs (as the designated away team) will call – I believe they’ll call Tails, there’s not a whole lot out there but it seems like they tend to lean that way… The only way to get on that at the moment is “Chiefs to win the toss, Coin to land Tails” or “Eagles to win the Toss, coin to land on heads” – Both at 5/2, so that works out as a little profit. – I have requested just what they’ll call, I’m hoping they’ll go near evens on Tails.

National Anthem

Of course the most fun you can have, and easily the most easily corrupted, if you’re VERY quick is the length of the National Anthem, we’ve got a fella singing it this year, a Country singer by the name of Chris Stapleton, the length has gone over in recent years with a bevvy of ladies singing the anthem, I’m actually tempted to go under the length this year.

It opened at 2min 02seconds and is now up to 2mins 07 seconds – BUT the key here is to keep an eye on Twitter during the week. Someone WILL post a recording from outside the stadium and tell you exactly how long the anthem is.

Opening Kick-off to be a touchback?

In most games the opening kick-off will be a touchback, but the Super Bowl is a little different, it’s a brand spanking new ball that’s untouched before the kick-off, so it’s harder and doesn’t travel as far… last year the Rams vs Bengals was NOT a touchback. I’d be leaning to no touchback at plus money – 11/8 on 888 seems all right.

Half-Time Show – Rihanna

That’s the pre-game stuff looked at, now on to the Half Time show, which this year sees Rihanna break her 5-year hiatus from performing to come back in the big time in Arizona.

Again, of course, you want to keep an eye on Twitter during the week as someone may well leak what the 1st/last song will be, but we’ll have a little look at it here, why the hell not…

It looks like “Don’t stop the Music” has been taking money since the markets opened and is now into favouritism to open the show. I would assume that Umbrella would be closing the show, but it looks like I’m not the only person expecting that with it the fave for the final song of the set. Or former leader here at Full10yards.com Tim, was looking for Disturbia – A song which isn’t listed in many sites in the states.

Total Songs

Over is the usual go-to on total songs, they tend to play a minute or so of each, o9.5 is 4/5, so a slight lean according to the odds on that side of things.

Appear on stage

Rihanna – Feminist icon and hero, will she really allow a man to appear on stage? Even JayZ who has helped organise this show? Hmmm, it’s not something I’d be backing, especially at odds-on for him, Drake is at 1/2 as well, please god no, or her fella A$AP Rocky is there at 5/2 to get on stage.

You can’t bet on it in the UK, but putting your mortgage on Cleavage at 1/5 would have been a banker, surely?!

Post-Game

Gatorade Shower

So, maybe not post-game but the end of the game at least, you can obviously pick the colour of the Gatorade thrown over the winning coach and we’ve got two fairly recent Super Bowl winners here, the Eagles had Yellow a few years back when they beat the Pats, while the Chiefs went for Orange when beating the 49ers three years ago.

Same coaching staff for the Chiefs, different for the Eagles, but Yellow looks like it could be the one to bet on here – 3/1 isn’t bad on that I guess, and it was Yellow which went on Sirianni when they won the NFC Championship game a couple of weeks ago

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“The guys were the most pumped up I’ve ever seen them going into a game” – Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes on ‘underdog’ AFC Championship victory

After winning the AFC Championship game and securing a spot in his third Super Bowl, Patrick Mahomes discussed going into the game as an ‘underdog’, just eight days after suffering a high ankle sprain.

“I think the guys were probably the most pumped up I’ve seen them going into a game, a lot of trash talk was coming from a lot of different places, even the mayor came at me.

“Whenever you feel like the underdog playing at Arrowhead Stadium it gets our guys ready to go.”

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Mahomes’ Kansas City Chiefs reached their third Super Bowl in his fifth year as a starter, after a 23-20 victory over Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals, the reigning AFC Champions.

Many saw the Chiefs as underdogs heading into the game, not only due to questions over their QB’s ankle, but also because Burrow was 3-0 vs Mahomes in his young career.

“I didn’t expect to be able to run very much just with the way it felt, but the training staff did a great job to get me enough mobility to protect myself, Mahomes expressed, before pointing out;

“At the end of the game, I had a run to get the first down, and it got us into field goal range.

“I thought the stomping was going to be the hardest part, especially planting the right leg to throw across the body, that definitely didn’t feel good. The worst tweak was when I fumbled and I tried to pick it up.”

The Arrowhead regulars were in control for most of the game, but a late Mahomes fumble gave them a scare.

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“It was going to Marquez (Valdes-Scantling), who was wide open, they blitzed and it just slipped out of my hand.

“Luckily it didn’t cost us the game and our defense stepped up and got some stops for us in the end, because it was a big moment.”

“Now, the job is not finished for us, we’ve got the chance to go up against a great football team in the Philadelphia Eagles.

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When asked about returning to yet another Super Bowl, Mahomes revealed that he’s approaching this one with a different mindset.

“When I first got into the league it all happened so fast, winning MVP, winning the Super Bowl, I thought that was just how it went.

“Now I’ve dealt with failure, losing the AFC Championship, losing the Super Bowl. I know how much hard work and daily grit it takes.”

You can watch Mahomes and the Chiefs suit up in Super Bowl 57 on Sunday 11th February. Both Sky Sports and ITV are showing the game here in the UK, with kick-off set for 11:30 PM GMT.

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5 things we learned in the 2023 Divisional Round

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With the two Conference Championship games now set, the Divisional round left many teams with more questions than answers

1. Could Cincinnati be the AFC favourites?

The odds were stacked against Zac Taylor’s Cincinnati Bengals heading into Sunday’s early game, but those in the tiger-striped helmets prevailed as a postseason underdog once again.

Much was made about the loss of three key starters on the offensive line for Cinci, but that makeshift unit performed admirably on Sunday. The Bengals controlled the line of scrimmage and kept their quarterback upright.

Lou Anarumo delivered yet another outstanding playoff gameplan, holding Josh Allen and the Bills to ten points. Even the home-field advantage (of snow) couldn’t get them going in a game that seemed so one-sided from the start.

2. Buffalo’s Super Bowl window is closing

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Was this the Buffalo Bills’ year? After another heartbreaking loss in the divisional round, it appears that Sean McDermott’s Bills’ Super Bowl window is closing.

We know Josh Allen is locked in after his recent contract extension, but some key pieces are impeding free agents, with little cap room to manoeuvre. As with all teams who are good enough to enter themselves into a Super Bowl window, you can’t afford to pay everyone.

Tremaine Edmonds and Jordan Poyer look set to test the market, with the likes of Von Miller, Matt Milano, Tre’davious White and Micah Hyde all on decent money on defense.

3. The Jacksonville Jaguars are about to pounce

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Despite losing to the Kansas City Chiefs with Patrick Mahomes on one ankle, the future is certainly bright in Jacksonville. A young Jags team hung in there with the conference’s number-one seed, despite having far inferior talent.

Trevor Lawrence was without the early playoff nerves displayed in the Chargers game but sadly doesn’t possess the supporting cast required to compete against a team that will play in a fifth straight AFC championship game.

Coach Doug Pederson and general manager Trent Baalke will be encouraged by what they’ve seen from their young quarterback this season. Lawrence’s development will enable them to build around him in the coming off-season.

4. Serious eyes are on Dak Prescott

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Are the Dallas Cowboys sure that Prescott is the guy? After the league’s turnover leader threw three more interceptions in a game he should have won on Sunday night, serious questions are being raised about the man they are paying $40 million per year.

Being a game manager can get you wins in the NFC, but it will never win you a Super Bowl against the likes of Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Joe Burrow.

On that kind of money, you’d think Prescott would be a top-five quarterback, but he’d barely crack the top half of the league’s best quarterbacks.

5. San Fransisco can be slowed down

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In their loss at Levi’s Stadium, Dallas defensive coordinator Dan Quinn laid out a blueprint for slowing down the San Francisco 49ers offense.

Kyle Shanahan’s offense has been on fire lately, especially since the Christian McCaffrey trade, winning 12 straight games and scoring less than 30 points only four times in that span.

McCaffrey and Elijah Mitchell combined for 3.55 yards per carry on Sunday night, a significant decrease from their season average of 5.4. The Philadelphia Eagles, their opponent on Sunday, have the second-best defense in terms of yards per game during the regular season.

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5 things to look out for on Christmas Eve

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As the year draws to a close, the main slate of games is shifted to Christmas Eve with many having major playoff implications. Here are five things to look out for on a festive NFL Saturday.

1. Will the Patriots shock the Bengals to stay right in the playoff hunt?

The New England Patriots are one of many teams on the outside of the playoffs looking in. Unfortunately, they have the league’s joint toughest schedule through the final three weeks, as Joe Burrow and the Bengals come to town.

After the Jets lost on Thursday night, it’s looking a tiny bit better for Bill Belichick’s Patriots, but that final very un-Belichickian play in Las Vegas may be costly when it comes to who gets the final AFC wildcard spot.

Who would’ve thought Zac Taylor’s Bengals would have secured a second straight playoff berth at the beginning of last season? A win today will be nice, putting them in control of the race for the division with Buffalo and Baltimore coming up.

2. Might the Houston Texans hurt their division rival?

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Under Love Smith’s leadership, the Houston Texans have caused problems for both Dallas and Kansas City these past two weeks, but can they hamper the Tennessee Titans?

A loss for Mike Vrabel’s men will make a fourth straight playoff berth increasingly unlikely, giving the Jacksonville Jaguars the lead of the AFC South.

Trevor Lawrence’s rise to stardom paired with the Titans’ four-game losing streak has put pressure on a team that looked like a shoo-in for the playoffs a month ago.

3. Can the Seahawks come away from Arrowhead still in wildcard contention?

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Pete Carroll’s Seattle Seahawks are in need of a win in Kansas City today to keep their season alive. The Hawks currently sit at a 31% chance of making the postseason, that number will be way bigger if they are to pull off the shock.

Their opponents, Andy Reid’s Kansas City Chiefs were crowned AFC West Champions for the seventh time in a row. Focus now turns toward getting the one seed from the Buffalo Bills.

Reid’s men will need the Bills to lose one, the most likely being the next MNF against the Bengals, but also need to be wary of a slip-up themselves. It got super close in Houston last week.

4. The New York Giants can potentially clinch a playoff spot with a win

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Fresh from the hold-on SNF win over their division rival Washington Commanders, the New York Giants can clinch a playoff spot this week with a win and a loss from two of Washington, Seattle, and Detroit.

Sunday night’s win was mega, putting them in the driving seat for a first postseason berth since 2016, a big achievement for Brian Daboll in his first season as head coach.

In their way are the Minnesota Vikings, who will be hoping to be on the boil for the whole game this week. Last Saturday’s first half in Indianapolis was abysmal, needing a record-breaking comeback to secure their eventual victory. 

5. Could Gardner Minshew secure the #1 seed for the Philadelphia Eagles?

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Gardner Minshew will start for the Philadelphia Eagles in Dallas tonight as Jalen Hurts is out with a shoulder injury. Can he win them the NFC East?

A win would not only wrap up the division but also the number one seed, giving some key Eagles players potentially a few weeks of rest, ready to begin again deep into January.

The Cowboys are very unlikely to win the division, and already have secured a spot in next month’s playoffs, but a win over their bitter rivals will still be sought after. 

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5 things to look out for in Week 14

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Three inter-division clashes and Tua vs Herbert on SNF are among five things to look out for in Week 14

1. Bills out for revenge against the Jets

PFF’s second-ranked offense meets their second-ranked defense for the second time this season as the Buffalo Bills host the New York Jets.

Buffalo regained the lead of the AFC East after Miami’s loss to San Francisco on Sunday, a win over the Jets is crucial before their big division decider against the Dolphins.

Unfortunately, they will be without star pass rusher Von Miller for the rest of the season due to a torn ACL discovered during a scope on the knee he injured on Thanksgiving.

2. Giants desperate for a win in an all-NFC East clash

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The New York Giants are in desperate need for a win as the NFC playoff picture is heating up. Brian Daboll’s team have won just one in four, after starting the year 6-1.

A lack of real quality, especially in roles that require depth is really starting to catch up with them. Daniel Jones’ offense has only scored over 25 points once all season. 

Philadelphia looked like they were back to their old selves after a dominant win over the Titans on Sunday. Another outstanding performance from Jalen Hurts will boost his chances of being named MVP

3. Can the Denver Broncos upset the Kansas City Chiefs?

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Denver hasn’t beaten Kansas City since Week 2 of the 2015 season, the year they won the Super Bowl, meaning that the Chiefs have come out on top in each of the last 13 meetings.

If the Broncos pull off an upset, it could seriously jeopardise the Chiefs’ chances of claiming the top seed in the playoffs. If the Chiefs lose and the Bengals or Ravens win, they will fall all the way to three. 

An unlikely fumble by Travis Kelce cost Mahomes and company the lead in Cincinnati on Sunday night, while the Broncos blew their own lead to a Tyler Huntley-led Baltimore team.

4. Brock Purdy vs Tom Brady in San Francisco

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Tampa Bay are hitting form at the right time, being in the last five games, which were all within one score, and winning three of them.

Monday night saw another classic Tom Brady comeback, this time from a two-score deficit with five minutes remaining.

Brock Purdy came in for an injured Jimmy Garroppolo and made all the throws necessary to help San Francisco beat Miami last week. 2022’s Mr. Irrelevant makes his first career start in this game.

5. Tua vs Herbert on Sunday Night Football

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2020’s number five and six overall picks face off as Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert meet for the first time since their rookie year, where the Dolphins were victorious

Tua’s currently going through a career year, whilst Herbert is having a down year. Mike McDaniel’s faith in the quarterback, paired with a better offensive cast, especially Terron Armstead, has helped a potential bust turn his career around. 

All eyes will be on Justin Herbert who has to win this game to keep the Chargers in the playoff picture. A loss and their season is all but done. Can he put the team on his back and win?

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5 things to look out for in Week 13

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A reunion in San Francisco and the 2022 AFC Championship Game rematch headline an entertaining Week 13 slate

1. Will Mike White keep the Jets flying?

Robert Saleh’s New York Jets made a successful QB change last week, beating Chicago after moving on from 2021 2nd overall pick Zach Wilson, in favour of Mike White.

White helped the Jets to their best offensive performance since Week 5, but it may be their defense that could give them the win against Minnesota on Sunday.

Kirk Cousins is having a sneaky good year and helped his team beat New England on Monday night, getting back to winning ways after the disappointing loss to Dallas.

2. Washington Commanders and New York Giants meet in first of two must-win division games

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Washington has won six of their last seven, and are looking like a completely different team since moving from Carson Wentz to Taylor Heinicke

The Commanders have gone from being in contention for the #1 overall pick to having a serious chance of making the postseason.

Up next are two crucial matchups against the New York Giants, either side of a bye week, whoever comes out of the series the best should be a playoff team.

3. Will the Titans hurt the Eagles?

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Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles put up an impressive offensive display against the Packers on Sunday night, bouncing back from two disappointing performances, after initially starting 8-0.

Now sat at 9-1, their toughest test may still be yet to come, as they welcome the Tennessee Titans to Lincoln Financial Field on Sunday.

The Titans are winning games like they always have under Mike Vrabel, by playing excellent defense and an unstoppable run game, that type of a threat can beat any team, especially late in the year. 

4. Mike McDaniel returns to San Francisco in the hunt for Dolphins first division title since 2008

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The most explosive offense in the league faces off against the best defense in what should be must-watch TV in Sunday’s late window.

Mike McDaniel has worked wonders for Tua Tagovailoa, restoring his confidence and coaching him from being a potential bust to a legitimate shot of winning MVP.

His Miami Dolphins offense has scored 30 or more points in four straight games, whilst San Francisco’s defense has only allowed over 30 once all season. 

5. Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs meet in AFC Championship rematch

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Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes meet again on Sunday, 10 months after the Bengals defeated the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game.

Cincinnati may be without superstar wide receiver Jamarr Chase, and starting running back Joe Mixon for this one, a win without them would be a big statement.

Every game that Kansas City has scored over 20 points in this season, they’ve won, meaning that whilst their defense may be giving up yards, they’re great situationally. 

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Week 12: Rookie Standouts

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Thanksgiving week always brings us a feast of games, and this year was no different, with three exciting contests on Turkey Day itself. The weekend didn’t disappoint either, with multiple shock results and a couple of overtimes sprinkled in for good measure. Here are three rookies that stood out among the pack:

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Garrett Wilson, Wide Receiver – New York Jets

What a difference a week makes. After being frustrated by last week’s abysmal quarterback performance from Zach Wilson, there was a new man under centre this week, and Mike White was able to turn things around thanks in part to his main target, Garrett Wilson.

Wilson continued his stellar year by catching five passes for 95 yards and two touchdowns. His second touchdown, a 51-yard catch and run, was somewhat fortuitous as the Bears’ Eddie Jackson, who was covering Wilson, suffered a foot injury on the play, which put him on the ground; however, it was still an outstanding midair catch, and as they say, they all count. Wilson’s second score wrestled the lead back from the Bears just before halftime, and the Jets took care of the rest, shutting the Bears out in the second half.

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Brian Robinson, Running Back – Washington Commanders

Another week and another stellar performance from the Washington running back, who, along with Taylor Heinicke, has been a major part of the Commanders’ recent resurgence, and both players’ fortunes could be a major factor in a late playoff push for yet another NFC East team.

Robinson finished the day with 105 yards on 18 carries, including a long of 21 yards. He also had two catches on three targets for 20 yards and a touchdown. In the last three games, all wins for the Commanders Robinson has now recorded 248 rushing yards on 59 carries at an average of 4.2 yards per carry. With two upcoming games against the Giants, who allow the second-most yards per carry, Robinson will be confident in his ability to maintain his ground dominance.

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Trent McDuffie, Cornerback – Kansas City Chiefs

It’s safe to say that it’s been a fractured season for first-rounder Trent McDuffie. Following a hamstring injury in Week 1, the cornerback was placed on injured reserve before being activated at the start of November. Though it is highly unlikely that McDuffie will get close to a defensive rookie of the year nomination, it could very well be a case of what might have been.

Since his return, McDuffie has stayed mostly under the radar while playing some of the best football of any of the rookie cornerbacks. This past week, he only allowed two catches for 13 yards on six targets and had a pass breakup. In his four games since his return from injury, he’s been targeted 19 times and only allowed 10 receptions.

Honourable Mentions

Kayvon Thibodeaux (New York Giants), Kenny Pickett (Pittsburgh Steelers), Jake Ferguson (Dallas Cowboys), Malcolm Rodriguez (Detroit Lions), Skyy Moore (Kansas City Chiefs)